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Aims To describe the pattern of mean body size of native mammals in Europe, and to investigate its relationships with environmental predictors related to four hypotheses: (1) dispersal; (2) heat conservation; (3) heat dissipation; and (4) resource availability. Location Continental western Europe and Great Britain. Methods We used range maps to estimate the mean body size (average log mass) of mammals in 386 cells of 12,100 km2 each. Environmental conditions in each cell were quantified using nine historical, climatic and primary production variables. We attempted to tease apart the effects of these variables using correlation, multiple regression and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Results In the part of the continent covered by ice during the Pleistocene, body mass decreases southwards, and annual average temperature explains 73% of the variance in body size, consistent with the heat-conservation hypothesis. However, in warmer, non-glaciated areas the best predictor is an estimate of seasonality in plant production, but it explains only 18% of the variance. Carnivores, omnivores and herbivores show similar relationships, but the pattern for herbivores is substantially weaker than for the other groups. Main conclusions Overall, the relationship between mean body size and temperature is non-linear, being strong in cold environments but virtually disappearing above a temperature threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim We explored the effects of prevalence, latitudinal range and spatial autocorrelation of species distribution patterns on the accuracy of bioclimate envelope models of butterflies. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods The data of a national butterfly atlas survey (NAFI) carried out in 1991–2003 with a resolution of 10 × 10 km were used in the analyses. Generalized additive models (GAM) were constructed, for each of 98 species, to estimate the probability of occurrence as a function of climate variables. Model performance was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Observed differences in modelling accuracy among species were related to the species’ geographical attributes using multivariate GAM. Results Accuracies of the climate–butterfly models varied from low to very high (AUC values 0.59–0.99), with a mean of 0.79. The modelling performance was related negatively to the latitudinal range and prevalence, and positively to the spatial autocorrelation of the species distribution. These three factors accounted for 75.2% of the variation in the modelling accuracy. Species at the margin of their range or with low prevalence were better predicted than widespread species, and species with clumped distributions better than scattered dispersed species. Main conclusions The results from this study indicate that species’ geographical attributes highly influence the behaviour and uncertainty of species–climate models, which should be taken into account in biogeographical modelling studies and assessments of climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To produce a statistical stratification of the European environment, suitable for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, the selection of sites for representative studies across the continent, and to provide strata for modelling exercises and reporting. Location A ‘Greater European Window’ with the following boundaries: 11° W, 32° E, 34° N, 72° N. Methods Twenty of the most relevant available environmental variables were selected, based on experience from previous studies. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to explain 88% of the variation into three dimensions, which were subsequently clustered using an ISODATA clustering routine. The mean first principal component values of the classification variables were used to aggregate the strata into Environmental Zones and to provide a basis for consistent nomenclature. Results The Environmental Stratification of Europe (EnS) consists of 84 strata, which have been aggregated into 13 Environmental Zones. The stratification has a 1 km2 resolution. Aggregations of the strata have been compared to other European classifications using the Kappa statistic, and show ‘good’ comparisons. The individual strata have been described using data from available environmental databases. The EnS is available for noncommercial use by applying to the corresponding author. Main conclusions The Environmental Stratification of Europe has been constructed using tried and tested statistical procedures. It forms an appropriate stratification for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, the selection of sites for representative studies across the continent and for the provision of strata for modelling exercises and reporting at the European scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioclimatic envelope models are often used to make projections of species’ potential responses to climate change. It can be hypothesized that species with different kinds of distributions in environmental niche and geographical space may respond differently to changes in climate. Here, we compare projections of shifts in species ranges with simple descriptors of species niche (position and breadth) and geographical (range size) distributions. Europe. The future distribution for 1200 European plant species were predicted by niche-based models using seven climate variables known to have an important role in limiting plant species distributions. Ecological niche properties were estimated using a multivariate analysis. Species range changes were then related to species niche properties using generalized linear models. Generally, percentage of remaining suitable habitat in the future increased linearly with niche position and breadth. Increases in potential suitable habitat were associated with greater range size, and had a hump-shaped relationship with niche position on temperature gradient. By relating species chorotypes to percentage of remaining or gained habitat, we highlighted biogeographical patterns of species sensitivity to climate change. These were clearly related to the degree of exposure according to regional patterns of projected climate change. This study highlights general patterns about the relationships between sensitivity of species to climate change and their ecological properties. There is a strong convergence between simple inferences based on ecological characteristics of species and projections by bioclimatic ‘envelope’ models, confirming macroecological assumptions about species sensitivity based on niche properties. These patterns appear to be most strongly driven by the exposure of species to climate change, with additional effects of species niche characteristics. We conclude that simple species niche properties are powerful indicators of species’ sensitivity to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim To investigate latitudinal and altitudinal patterns in body size variation among north-west European land snail species, as well as factors influencing such patterns. Location Latitudinal patterns were investigated in north-west Europe from the British Isles and France in the west to Finland, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary in the east and from Norway in the north to France (with the exception of the Mediterranean part of the country), Switzerland, Austria and Hungary in the south. Altitudinal patterns were examined in the Alps in Austria and Switzerland. Methods Data on latitudinal ranges of 366 north-west European land snail species, on altitudinal ranges of 175 species from Austria and 150 species from Switzerland, and on their body sizes were used to test for the presence of interspecific latitudinal or altitudinal body size patterns. Four methods, Stevens’ method, the midpoint method, the across-species method, and a phylogenetically controlled analysis (CAIC) were applied. Results As a result of the predominance of some small bodied clades at higher latitudes and some large bodied clades at lower latitudes, body size of north-west European land snails decreases significantly with increasing latitude. However, little of the body size variation across species is explained by latitude and the phylogenetically controlled analysis showed that the decrease of body size with increasing latitude is not a result of repeated and independent evolution of an association between body size and latitude in many clades. There is no significant correlation between body size of land snail species and altitude in the Alps although a negative correlation of body size and altitude is frequent within species. Main conclusion If phylogenetic effects are controlled for, neither latitudinal nor altitudinal patterns in body size could be found. Bergmann's rule, which predicts a positive correlation between body size of species and latitude, could not be confirmed for north-west European land snails. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Spatial autocorrelation in ecological data can inflate Type I errors in statistical analyses. There has also been a recent claim that spatial autocorrelation generates 'red herrings', such that virtually all past analyses are flawed. We consider the origins of this phenomenon, the implications of spatial autocorrelation for macro-scale patterns of species diversity and set out a clarification of the statistical problems generated by its presence. Location To illustrate the issues involved, we analyse the species richness of the birds of western/central Europe, north Africa and the Middle East. Methods Spatial correlograms for richness and five environmental variables were generated using Moran's I coefficients. Multiple regression, using both ordinary least-squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS) assuming a spatial structure in the residuals, were used to identify the strongest predictors of richness. Autocorrelation analyses of the residuals obtained after stepwise OLS regression were undertaken, and the ranks of variables in the full OLS and GLS models were compared. Results Bird richness is characterized by a quadratic northsouth gradient. Spatial correlograms usually had positive autocorrelation up to c. 1600 km. Including the environmental variables successively in the OLS model reduced spatial autocorrelation in the residuals to non-detectable levels, indicating that the variables explained all spatial structure in the data. In principle, if residuals are not autocorrelated then OLS is a special case of GLS. However, our comparison between OLS and GLS models including all environmental variables revealed that GLS de-emphasized predictors with strong autocorrelation and long-distance clinal structures, giving more importance to variables acting at smaller geographical scales. Conclusion Although spatial autocorrelation should always be investigated, it does not necessarily generate bias. Rather, it can be a useful tool to investigate... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calcium is an essential requirement for the successful growth and development of gastropod molluscs. Data for British freshwater gastropods were used to examine the relationship between environmental calcium requirements and British and European range sizes. At both spatial scales calciphile species, which require a high level of environmental calcium, had significantly smaller range sizes than species able to exploit a wide range of environmental calcium levels. However, at least in Britain, range size may also be influenced by the availability of suitable habitat. British and European range sizes were significantly correlated. This study provides evidence for niche-based explanations of range size variation, and suggests that both niche breadth and niche availability are important in determining range size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A positive correlation between human population density and species richness has been recorded across the tropics. Here I investigate whether this correlation holds true for Europe. Analyses reveal a positive correlation between human population density and plant (rho = 0.505), mammal (rho = 0.471) and reptile and amphibian (rho = 0.556) species richness. The results are largely concordant with those obtained in similar studies for Africa. However, contrary to previous analyses, the correlation found between people and breeding bird species richness (rho = 0.186) was weak. Of three measures of endemism used, only combined European endemic species richness correlated with human density (rho = 0.437). Richness among combined restricted-range European endemics was not correlated (rho = 0.095) with human density, while richness among all combined restricted-range species was only weakly correlated with human density (rho = 0.167). The results partially support the idea of a correlation between people and biodiversity, although there are some important exceptions. Discussion of possible mechanisms underling the observed patterns is undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]