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Forests play a crucial role in global carbon cycling by absorbing and storing significant amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Although boreal forests contribute to approximately 45% of the total forest carbon sink, tree growth and soil carbon sequestration are constrained by nutrient availability. Here, we examine if long‐term nutrient input enhances tree productivity and whether this leads to carbon storage or whether stimulated microbial decomposition of organic matter limits soil carbon accumulation. Over six decades, nitrogen, phosphorus, and calcium were supplied to a Pinus sylvestris‐dominated boreal forest. We found that nitrogen fertilization alone or together with calcium and/or phosphorus increased tree biomass production by 50% and soil carbon sequestration by 65% compared to unfertilized plots. However, the nonlinear relationship observed between tree productivity and soil carbon stock across treatments suggests microbial regulation. When phosphorus was co‐applied with nitrogen, it acidified the soil, increased fungal biomass, altered microbial community composition, and enhanced biopolymer degradation capabilities. While no evidence of competition between ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungi has been observed, key functional groups with the potential to reduce carbon stocks were identified. In contrast, when nitrogen was added without phosphorus, it increased soil carbon sequestration because microbial activity was likely limited by phosphorus availability. In conclusion, the addition of nitrogen to boreal forests may contribute to global warming mitigation, but this effect is context dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme droughts are globally increasing in frequency and severity. Most research on drought in forests focuses on the response of trees, while less is known about the impacts of drought on forest understory species and how these effects are moderated by the local environment. We assessed the impacts of a 45‐day experimental summer drought on the performance of six boreal forest understory plants, using a transplant experiment with rainout shelters replicated across 25 sites. We recorded growth, vitality and reproduction immediately, 2 months, and 1 year after the simulated drought, and examined how differences in ambient soil moisture and canopy cover among sites influenced the effects of drought on the performance of each species. Drought negatively affected the growth and/or vitality of all species, but the effects were stronger and more persistent in the bryophytes than in the vascular plants. The two species associated with older forests, the moss Hylocomiastrum umbratum and the orchid Goodyera repens, suffered larger effects than the more generalist species included in the experiment. The drought reduced reproductive output in the moss Hylocomium splendens in the next growing season, but increased reproduction in the graminoid Luzula pilosa. Higher ambient soil moisture reduced some negative effects of drought on vascular plants. Both denser canopy cover and higher soil moisture alleviated drought effects on bryophytes, likely through alleviating cellular damage. Our experiment shows that boreal understory species can be adversely affected by drought and that effects might be stronger for bryophytes and species associated with older forests. Our results indicate that the effects of drought can vary over small spatial scales and that forest landscapes can be actively managed to alleviate drought effects on boreal forest biodiversity. For example, by managing the tree canopy and protecting hydrological networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently burned boreal forests have lower aboveground fuel loads, generating a negative feedback to subsequent wildfires. Despite this feedback, short‐interval reburns (≤20 years between fires) are possible under extreme weather conditions. Reburns have consequences for ecosystem recovery, leading to enduring vegetation change. In this study, we characterize the strength of the fire‐fuel feedback in recently burned Canadian boreal forests and the weather conditions that overwhelm resistance to fire spread in recently burned areas. We used a dataset of daily fire spread for thousands of large boreal fires, interpolated from remotely sensed thermal anomalies to which we associated local weather from ERA5‐Land for each day of a fire's duration. We classified days with >3 ha of fire growth as spread days and defined burned pixels overlapping a fire perimeter ≤20 years old as short‐interval reburns. Results of a logistic regression showed that the odds of fire spread in recently burned areas were ~50% lower than in long‐interval fires; however, all Canadian boreal ecozones experienced short‐interval reburning (1981–2021), with over 100,000 ha reburning annually. As fire weather conditions intensify, the resistance to fire spread declines, allowing fire to spread in recently burned areas. The weather associated with short‐interval fire spread days was more extreme than the conditions during long‐interval spread, but overall differences were modest (e.g. relative humidity 2.6% lower). The frequency of fire weather conducive to short‐interval fire spread has significantly increased in the western boreal forest due to climate warming and drying (1981–2021). Our results suggest an ongoing degradation of fire‐fuel feedbacks, which is likely to continue with climatic warming and drying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing white‐tailed deer populations in Canada's boreal forest are linked to declines of threatened boreal caribou populations. Recent work by Dickie et al. (2024) shows that climate plays a stronger role than anthropogenic habitat alteration in impacting deer white‐tailed deer density, however we contend that these findings are not robust due to insufficient data and the analysis used is sensitive to data scaling approach. We demonstrate approximately equal but opposite effects of climate and alteration on white‐tailed deer population density, and emphasize the importance of robust analyses involving contentious conservation issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) is typically defined as light with a wavelength within 400–700 nm. However, ultra‐violet (UV) radiation within 280–400 nm and far‐red (FR) radiation within 700–750 nm can also excite photosystems, though not as efficiently as PAR. Vegetation and land surface models (LSMs) typically do not explicitly account for UV's contribution to energy budgets or photosynthesis, nor FR's contribution to photosynthesis. However, whether neglecting UV and FR has significant impacts remains unknown. We explored how canopy radiative transfer (RT) and photosynthesis are impacted when explicitly implementing UV in the canopy RT model and accounting for UV and FR in the photosynthesis models within a next‐generation LSM that can simulate hyperspectral canopy RT. We validated our improvements using photosynthesis measurements from plants under different light sources and intensities and surface reflection from an eddy‐covariance tower. Our model simulations suggested that at the whole plant level, after accounting for UV and FR explicitly, chlorophyll content, leaf area index (LAI), clumping index, and solar radiation all impact the modeling of gross primary productivity (GPP). At the global scale, mean annual GPP within a grid would increase by up to 7.3% and the increase is proportional to LAI; globally integrated GPP increases by 4.6 PgC year−1 (3.8% of the GPP without accounting for UV + FR). Further, using PAR to proxy UV could overestimate surface albedo by more than 0.1, particularly in the boreal forests. Our results highlight the importance of improving UV and FR in canopy RT and photosynthesis modeling and the necessity to implement hyperspectral or multispectral canopy RT schemes in future vegetation and LSMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal forests are frequently subjected to disturbances, including wildfire and clear‐cutting. While these disturbances can cause soil carbon (C) losses, the long‐term accumulation dynamics of soil C stocks during subsequent stand development is controlled by biological processes related to the balance of net primary production (NPP) and outputs via heterotrophic respiration and leaching, many of which remain poorly understood. We review the biological processes suggested to influence soil C accumulation in boreal forests. Our review indicates that median C accumulation rates following wildfire and clear‐cutting are similar (0.15 and 0.20 Mg ha−1 year−1, respectively), however, variation between studies is extremely high. Further, while many individual studies show linear increases in soil C stocks through time after disturbance, there are indications that C stock recovery is fastest early to mid‐succession (e.g. 15–80 years) and then slows as forests mature (e.g. >100 years). We indicate that the rapid build‐up of soil C in younger stands appears not only driven by higher plant production, but also by a high rate of mycorrhizal hyphal production, and mycorrhizal suppression of saprotrophs. As stands mature, the balance between reductions in plant and mycorrhizal production, increasing plant litter recalcitrance, and ectomycorrhizal decomposers and saprotrophs have been highlighted as key controls on soil C accumulation rates. While some of these controls appear well understood (e.g. temporal patterns in NPP, changes in aboveground litter quality), many others remain research frontiers. Notably, very little data exists describing and comparing successional patterns of root production, mycorrhizal functional traits, mycorrhizal‐saprotroph interactions, or C outputs via heterotrophic respiration and dissolved organic C following different disturbances. We argue that these less frequently described controls require attention, as they will be key not only for understanding ecosystem C balances, but also for representing these dynamics more accurately in soil organic C and Earth system models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar radiation is scattered by cloud cover, aerosols and other particles in the atmosphere, all of which are affected by global changes. Furthermore, the diffuse fraction of solar radiation is increased by more frequent forest fires and likewise would be if climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection were adopted. Forest ecosystem studies predict that an increase in diffuse radiation would result in higher productivity, but ecophysiological data are required to identify the processes responsible within the forest canopy. In our study, the response of a boreal forest to direct, diffuse and heterogeneous solar radiation conditions was examined during the daytime in the growing season to determine how carbon uptake is affected by radiation conditions at different scales. A 10‐year data set of ecosystem, shoot and forest floor vegetation carbon and water‐flux data was examined. Ecosystem‐level carbon assimilation was higher under diffuse radiation conditions in comparison with direct radiation conditions at equivalent total photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). This was driven by both an increase in shoot and forest floor vegetation photosynthetic rate. Most notably, ecosystem‐scale productivity was strongly related to the absolute amount of diffuse PAR, since it integrates both changes in total PAR and diffuse fraction. This finding provides a gateway to explore the processes by which absolute diffuse PAR enhances productivity, and the long‐term persistence of this effect under scenarios of higher global diffuse radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current global climate change is expected to affect biodiversity negatively at all scales leading to mass biodiversity loss. Many studies have shown that the distribution of allele frequencies across a species' range is often influenced by specific genetic loci associated with local environmental variables. This association reflects local adaptation and allele changes at those loci could thereby contribute to the evolutionary response to climate change. However, predicting how species will adapt to climate change from this type of data alone remains challenging. In the present study, we combined exome capture sequences and environmental niche reconstruction, to test multiple methods for assessing local adaptation and climate resilience in two widely distributed conifers, Norway spruce and Siberian spruce. Both species are keystone species of the boreal forest and share a vast hybrid zone. We show that local adaptation in conifers can be detected through allele frequency variation, population‐level ecological preferences, and historical niche movement. Moreover, we integrated genetic and ecological information into genetic offset predictive models to show that hybridization plays a central role in expanding the niche breadth of the two conifer species and may help both species to cope better with future changing climates. This joint genetic and ecological analysis also identified spruce populations that are at risk under current climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern peatlands provide a globally important carbon (C) store. Since the beginning of the 20th century, however, large areas of natural peatlands have been drained for biomass production across Fennoscandia. Today, drained peatland forests constitute a common feature of the managed boreal landscape, yet their ecosystem C balance and associated climate impact are not well understood, particularly within the nutrient‐poor boreal region. In this study, we estimated the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) from a nutrient‐poor drained peatland forest and an adjacent natural mire in northern Sweden by integrating terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes with aquatic losses of dissolved organic C (DOC) and inorganic C based on eddy covariance and stream discharge measurements, respectively, over two hydrological years. Since the forest included a dense spruce‐birch area and a sparse pine area, we were able to further evaluate the effect of contrasting forest structure on the NECB and component fluxes. We found that the drained peatland forest was a net C sink with a 2‐year mean NECB of −115 ± 5 g C m−2 year−1 while the adjacent mire was close to C neutral with 14.6 ± 1.7 g C m−2 year−1. The NECB of the drained peatland forest was dominated by the net CO2 exchange (net ecosystem exchange [NEE]), whereas NEE and DOC export fluxes contributed equally to the mire NECB. We further found that the C sink strength in the sparse pine forest area (−153 ± 8 g C m−2 year−1) was about 1.5 times as high as in the dense spruce‐birch forest area (−95 ± 8 g C m−2 year−1) due to enhanced C uptake by ground vegetation and lower DOC export. Our study suggests that historically drained peatland forests in nutrient‐poor boreal regions may provide a significant net ecosystem C sink and associated climate benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape‐level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat‐derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post‐fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space‐for‐time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid‐succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8–40% during June and July for 2‐ to 59‐year stands relative to pre‐fire controls. From the analysis of post‐fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long‐term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early‐ and mid‐summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long‐term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO2 exchange without a close coupling to long‐term increases in carbon storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree‐ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine‐learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial–temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960–2010. We used the block cross‐validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040–2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early‐spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is predicted to cause milder winters and thus exacerbate soil freeze–thaw perturbations in the subarctic, recasting the environmental challenges that soil microorganisms need to endure. Historical exposure to environmental stressors can facilitate the microbial resilience to new cycles of that same stress. However, whether and how such microbial memory or stress legacy can modulate microbial responses to cycles of frost remains untested. Here, we conducted an in situ field experiment in a subarctic birch forest, where winter warming resulted in a substantial increase in the number and intensity of freeze–thaw events. After one season of winter warming, which raised mean surface and soil (−8 cm) temperatures by 2.9 and 1.4°C, respectively, we investigated whether the in situ warming‐induced increase in frost cycles improved soil microbial resilience to an experimental freeze–thaw perturbation. We found that the resilience of microbial growth was enhanced in the winter warmed soil, which was associated with community differences across treatments. We also found that winter warming enhanced the resilience of bacteria more than fungi. In contrast, the respiration response to freeze–thaw was not affected by a legacy of winter warming. This translated into an enhanced microbial carbon‐use efficiency in the winter warming treatments, which could promote the stabilization of soil carbon during such perturbations. Together, these findings highlight the importance of climate history in shaping current and future dynamics of soil microbial functioning to perturbations associated with climate change, with important implications for understanding the potential consequences on microbial‐mediated biogeochemical cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change predictions suggest that arctic and subarctic ecosystems will be particularly affected by rising temperatures and extreme weather events, including severe heat waves. Temperature is one of the most important environmental factors controlling and regulating microbial decomposition in soils; therefore, it is critical to understand its impact on soil microorganisms and their feedback to climate warming. We conducted a warming experiment in a subarctic birch forest in North Sweden to test the effects of summer heat waves on the thermal trait distributions that define the temperature dependences for microbial growth and respiration. We also determined the microbial temperature dependences 10 and 12 months after the heat wave simulation had ended to investigate the persistence of the thermal trait shifts. As a result of warming, the bacterial growth temperature dependence shifted to become warm‐adapted, with a similar trend for fungal growth. For respiration, there was no shift in the temperature dependence. The shifts in thermal traits were not accompanied by changes in α‐ or β‐diversity of the microbial community. Warming increased the fungal‐to‐bacterial growth ratio by 33% and decreased the microbial carbon use efficiency by 35%, and both these effects were caused by the reduction in moisture the warming treatments caused, while there was no evidence that substrate depletion had altered microbial processes. The warm‐shifted bacterial thermal traits were partially restored within one winter but only fully recovered to match ambient conditions after 1 year. To conclude, a summer heat wave in the Subarctic resulted in (i) shifts in microbial thermal trait distributions; (ii) lower microbial process rates caused by decreased moisture, not substrate depletion; and (iii) no detectable link between the microbial thermal trait shifts and community composition changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The migration of trees induced by climatic warming has been observed at many alpine treelines and boreal–tundra ecotones, but the migration of temperate trees into southern boreal forest remains less well documented. We conducted a field investigation across an ecotone of temperate and boreal forests in northern Greater Khingan Mountains of northeast China. Our analysis demonstrates that Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica), an important temperate tree species, has migrated rapidly into southern boreal forest in synchrony with significant climatic warming over the past century. The average rate of migration is estimated to be 12.0 ± 1.0 km decade−1, being slightly slower than the movement of isotherms (14.7 ± 6.4 km decade−1). The migration rate of Mongolian oak is the highest observed among migratory temperate trees (average rate 4.0 ± 1.0 km decade−1) and significantly higher than the rates of tree migration at boreal–tundra ecotones (0.9 ± 0.4 km decade−1) and alpine treelines (0.004 ± 0.003 km decade−1). Compared with the coexisting dominant boreal tree species, Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii), temperate Mongolian oak is observed to have significantly lower capacity for light acquisition, comparable water‐use efficiency but stronger capacity to utilize nutrients especially the most limiting nutrient, nitrogen. In the context of climatic warming, and in addition to a high seed dispersal capacity and potential thermal niche differences, the advantage of nutrient utilization, reflected by foliar elementomes and stable nitrogen isotope ratios, is also likely a key mechanism for Mongolian oak to coexist with Dahurian larch and facilitate its migration toward boreal forest. These findings highlight a rapid deborealization of southern Asian boreal forest in response to climatic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent work indicates that the changing variability, that is, the amplitude and the temporal autocorrelation of deviations from the mean, may have greater and more imminent impact on ecosystems. In this paper, we demonstrate that changes in climate variability alone could drive cyclic predator–prey ecosystems to extinction via so‐called phase‐tipping (P‐tipping), a new type of instability that occurs only from certain phases of the predator–prey cycle. We construct a mathematical model of a variable climate and couple it to two self‐oscillating paradigmatic predator–prey models. Most importantly, we combine realistic parameter values for the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare with actual climate data from the boreal forest. In this way, we demonstrate that critically important species in the boreal forest have increased likelihood of P‐tipping to extinction under predicted changes in climate variability, and are most vulnerable during stages of the cycle when the predator population is near its maximum. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stochastic resonance is the underlying mechanism for the increased likelihood of P‐tipping to extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's boreal forests, which occupy approximately 30% of boreal forests worldwide, play an important role in the global carbon budget. However, there is little quantitative information available regarding the spatiotemporal changes in the drought‐induced tree mortality of Canada's boreal forests overall and their associated impacts on biomass carbon dynamics. Here, we develop spatiotemporally explicit estimates of drought‐induced tree mortality and corresponding biomass carbon sink capacity changes in Canada's boreal forests from 1970 to 2020. We show that the average annual tree mortality rate is approximately 2.7%. Approximately 43% of Canada's boreal forests have experienced significantly increasing tree mortality trends (71% of which are located in the western region of the country), and these trends have accelerated since 2002. This increase in tree mortality has resulted in significant biomass carbon losses at an approximate rate of 1.51 ± 0.29 MgC ha−1 year−1 (95% confidence interval) with an approximate total loss of 0.46 ± 0.09 PgC year−1 (95% confidence interval). Under the drought condition increases predicted for this century, the capacity of Canada's boreal forests to act as a carbon sink will be further reduced, potentially leading to a significant positive climate feedback effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic‐boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic‐boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003–2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE; Reco − GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH4) emissions for the Arctic‐boreal zone using a satellite data‐driven process‐model for northern ecosystems (TCFM‐Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM‐Arctic to obtain daily 1‐km2 flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan‐Arctic‐boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of −850 Tg CO2‐C year−1. Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH4 emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH4) were estimated at 35 Tg CH4‐C year−1. Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high‐latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site‐to‐regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016–2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite—they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly in areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred across Europe between 1986 and 2020, we find a power‐law relationship between maximum fire size and area burned, indicating that large fires contribute disproportionally to fire activity in Europe. We further show a robust positive correlation between summer vapor pressure deficit and both maximum fire size (R2 =.19) and maximum burn severity (R2 =.12). Europe's fire regimes are thus highly sensitive to changes in future climate, with the probability for extreme fires more than doubling by the end of the century. Our results suggest that climate change will challenge current fire management approaches and could undermine the ability of Europe's forests to provide ecosystem services to society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal forests are important global carbon (C) sinks and, therefore, considered as a key element in climate change mitigation policies. However, their actual C sink strength is uncertain and under debate, particularly for the actively managed forests in the boreal regions of Fennoscandia. In this study, we use an extensive set of biometric-and chamber-based C flux data collected in 50 forest stands (ranging from 5 to 211 years) over 3 years (2016–2018) with the aim to explore the variations of the annual net ecosystem production (NEP; i.e., the ecosystem C balance) across a 68 km2 managed boreal forest landscape in northern Sweden. Our results demonstrate that net primary production rather than heterotrophic respiration regulated the spatio-temporal variations of NEP across the heterogeneous mosaic of the managed boreal forest landscape. We further find divergent successional patterns of NEP in our managed forests relative to naturally regenerating boreal forests, including (i) a fast recovery of the C sink function within the first decade after harvest due to the rapid establishment of a productive understory layer and (ii) a sustained C sink in old stands (131–211 years). We estimate that the rotation period for optimum C sequestration extends to 138 years, which over multiple rotations results in a long-term C sequestration rate of 86.5 t C ha−1 per rotation. Our study highlights the potential of forest management to maximize C sequestration of boreal forest landscapes and associate climate change mitigation effects by developing strategies that optimize tree biomass production rather than heterotrophic soil C emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic warming has lengthened the photosynthetically active season in recent decades, thus affecting the functioning and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, the global carbon cycle and climate. Temperature response of carbon uptake phenology varies spatially and temporally, even within species, and daily total intensity of radiation may play a role. We empirically modelled the thresholds of temperature and radiation under which daily carbon uptake is constrained in the temperate and cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere, which include temperate forests, boreal forests, alpine and tundra biomes. The two‐dimensionality of the temperature‐radiation constraint was reduced to one single variable, θ, which represents the angle in a polar coordinate system for the temperature‐radiation observations during the start and end of the growing season. We found that radiation will constrain the trend towards longer growing seasons with future warming but differently during the start and end of season and depending on the biome type and region. We revealed that radiation is a major factor limiting photosynthetic activity that constrains the phenology response to temperature during the end‐of‐season. In contrast, the start of the carbon uptake is overall highly sensitive to temperature but not constrained by radiation at the hemispheric scale. This study thus revealed that while at the end‐of‐season the phenology response to warming is constrained at the hemispheric scale, at the start‐of‐season the advance of spring onset may continue, even if it is at a slower pace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil microbial biomass and microbial stoichiometric ratios are important for understanding carbon and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we compiled data from 12245 observations of soil microbial biomass from 1626 published studies to map global patterns of microbial biomass carbon (MBC), microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), microbial biomass phosphorus (MBP), and their stoichiometry using a random forest model. Concentrations of MBC, MBN, and MBP were most closely linked to soil organic carbon, while climatic factors were most important for stoichiometry in microbial biomass ratios. Modeled seasonal MBC concentrations peaked in summer in tundra and in boreal forests, but in autumn in subtropical and in tropical biomes. The global mean MBC/MBN, MBC/MBP, and MBN/MBP ratios were estimated to be 10, 48, and 6.7, respectively, at 0–30 cm soil depth. The highest concentrations, stocks, and microbial C/N/P ratios were found at high latitudes in tundra and boreal forests, probably due to the higher soil organic matter content, greater fungal abundance, and lower nutrient availability in colder than in warmer biomes. At 30–100 cm soil depth, concentrations of MBC, MBN, and MBP were highest in temperate forests. The MBC/MBP ratio showed greater flexibility at the global scale than did the MBC/MBN ratio, possibly reflecting physiological adaptations and microbial community shifts with latitude. The results of this study are important for understanding C, N, and P cycling at the global scale, as well as for developing soil C‐cycling models including soil microbial C, N, and P as important parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil carbon (C) is comprised of a continuum of organic compounds with distinct ages (i.e., the time a C atom has experienced in soil since the C atom entered soil). The contribution of different age groups to soil C efflux is critical for understanding soil C stability and persistence, but is poorly understood due to the complexity of soil C pool age structure and potential distinct turnover behaviors of age groups. Here, we build upon the quantification of soil C transit times to infer the age of C atoms in soil C efflux (aefflux) from seven sequential soil layer depths down to 2 m at a global scale, and compare this age with radiocarbon‐inferred ages of C retained in corresponding soil layers (asoil). In the whole 0–2 m soil profile, the mean aefflux is 194211021 (mean with 5%–95% quantiles) year and is just about one‐eighth of asoil (14767172547 year), demonstrating that younger C dominates soil C efflux. With increasing soil depth, both aefflux and asoil are increased, but their disparities are markedly narrowed. That is, the proportional contribution of relatively younger soil C to efflux is decreased in deeper layers, demonstrating that C inputs (new and young) stay longer in deeper layers. Across the globe, we find large spatial variability of the contribution of soil C age groups to C efflux. Especially, in deep soil layers of cold regions (e.g., boreal forests and tundra), aefflux may be older than asoil, suggesting that older C dominates C efflux only under a limited range of conditions. These results imply that most C inputs may not contribute to long‐term soil C storage, particularly in upper layers that hold the majority of new C inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hemiboreal and boreal forests growing at the southern margin of the permafrost distribution are vulnerable to climate warming. However, how climate warming threatens the growth of dominant tree species that are distributed on permafrost remains to be determined, particularly in synchrony with warming‐induced permafrost degradation. Tree growth in the permafrost region of southern Siberia was hypothesized to be highly sensitive to temperature increasing and warming‐induced permafrost degradation. To test this hypothesis, we sampled the tree ring width of 535 trees of dominant species, larch (including Larix gmelinii and L. sibirica) and white birch (Betula platyphylla), in ten hemiboreal to boreal forest plots within different permafrost zones. The relationships between the tree ring basal area index (BAI) and temperature, precipitation, and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were compared among plots located in two permafrost zones. In the isolated permafrost zone, white birch grows better than larch and is not drought‐stressed (p <.05). We suggest that the deep‐rooted white birch benefits from the water from thawing permafrost, while the growth of the shallow‐rooted larch is stressed by drought. In the sporadic discontinuous permafrost zone, both white birch and larch benefited from permafrost melting, but the sensitivity of larch growth to PDSI is still significant (p <.05), indicating drought is still an important climatic factor limiting the growth of larch. Our results imply that the permafrost degradation caused by climate warming affects tree growth by creating the root layer additional water source. In the future, it is necessary to focus on monitoring permafrost degradation to better predict forest dynamics at the southern margin of the permafrost distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and boreal tree growth are generally non‐stationary; however, it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate and carbon (C) fluxes of boreal forests are stationary or have changed over recent decades. In this study, we used continuous eddy‐covariance and microclimate data over 21 years (1996–2016) from a 100‐year‐old trembling aspen stand in central Saskatchewan, Canada to assess the relationships between climate and ecosystem C and water fluxes. Over the study period, the most striking climatic event was a severe, 3‐year drought (2001–2003). Gross ecosystem production (GEP) showed larger interannual variability than ecosystem respiration (Re) over 1996–2016, but Re was the dominant component contributing to the interannual variation in net ecosystem production (NEP) during post‐drought years. The interannual variations in evapotranspiration (ET) and C fluxes were primarily driven by temperature and secondarily by water availability. Two‐factor linear models combining precipitation and temperature performed well in explaining the interannual variation in C and water fluxes (R2 >.5). The temperature sensitivities of all three C fluxes (NEP, GEP and Re) declined over the study period (p <.05), and, as a result, the phenological controls on annual NEP weakened. The decreasing temperature sensitivity of the C fluxes may reflect changes in forest structure, related to the over‐maturity of the aspen stand at 100 years of age, and exacerbated by high tree mortality following the severe 2001–2003 drought. These results may provide an early warning signal of driver shift or even an abrupt status shift of aspen forest dynamics. They may also imply a universal weakening in the relationship between temperature and GEP as forests become over‐mature, associated with the structural and compositional changes that accompany forest ageing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thin, hair‐like lichens (Alectoria, Bryoria, Usnea) form conspicuous epiphyte communities across the boreal biome. These poikilohydric organisms provide important ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of global change. We analyse how environmental drivers influence changes in occurrence and length of these lichens on Norway spruce (Picea abies) over 10 years in managed forests in Sweden using data from >6000 trees. Alectoria and Usnea showed strong declines in southern‐central regions, whereas Bryoria declined in northern regions. Overall, relative loss rates across the country ranged from 1.7% per year in Alectoria to 0.5% in Bryoria. These losses contrasted with increased length of Bryoria and Usnea in some regions. Occurrence trajectories (extinction, colonization, presence, absence) on remeasured trees correlated best with temperature, rain, nitrogen deposition, and stand age in multinomial logistic regression models. Our analysis strongly suggests that industrial forestry, in combination with nitrogen, is the main driver of lichen declines. Logging of forests with long continuity of tree cover, short rotation cycles, substrate limitation and low light in dense forests are harmful for lichens. Nitrogen deposition has decreased but is apparently still sufficiently high to prevent recovery. Warming correlated with occurrence trajectories of Alectoria and Bryoria, likely by altering hydration regimes and increasing respiration during autumn/winter. The large‐scale lichen decline on an important host has cascading effects on biodiversity and function of boreal forest canopies. Forest management must apply a broad spectrum of methods, including uneven‐aged continuous cover forestry and retention of large patches, to secure the ecosystem functions of these important canopy components under future climates. Our findings highlight interactions among drivers of lichen decline (forestry, nitrogen, climate), functional traits (dispersal, lichen colour, sensitivity to nitrogen, water storage), and population processes (extinction/colonization). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest biome is a major component of Earth's biosphere and climate system that is projected to shift northward due to continued climate change over the coming century. Indicators of a biome shift will likely first be evident along the climatic margins of the boreal forest and include changes in vegetation productivity, mortality, and recruitment, as well as overall vegetation greenness. However, the extent to which a biome shift is already underway remains unclear because of the local nature of most field studies, sparsity of systematic ground‐based ecological monitoring, and reliance on coarse resolution satellite observations. Here, we evaluated early indicators of a boreal forest biome shift using four decades of moderate resolution (30 m) satellite observations and biogeoclimatic spatial datasets. Specifically, we quantified interannual trends in annual maximum vegetation greenness using an ensemble of vegetation indices derived from Landsat observations at 100,000 sample sites in areas without signs of recent disturbance. We found vegetation greenness increased (greened) at 38 [29, 42] % and 22 [15, 26] % of sample sites from 1985 to 2019 and 2000 to 2019, whereas vegetation greenness decreased (browned) at 13 [9, 15] % and 15 [13, 19] % of sample sites during these respective periods [95% Monte Carlo confidence intervals]. Greening was thus 3.0 [2.6, 3.5] and 1.5 [0.8, 2.0] times more common than browning and primarily occurred in cold sparsely treed areas with high soil nitrogen and moderate summer warming. Conversely, browning primarily occurred in the climatically warmest margins of both the boreal forest biome and major forest types (e.g., evergreen conifer forests), especially in densely treed areas where summers became warmer and drier. These macroecological trends reflect underlying shifts in vegetation productivity, mortality, and recruitment that are consistent with early stages of a boreal biome shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrestrial net ecosystem productivity (NEP) has increased during the past three decades, but the mechanisms responsible are still unclear. We analyzed 17 years (2001–2017) of eddy‐covariance measurements of NEP, evapotranspiration (ET) and light and water use efficiency from a boreal coniferous forest in Southern Finland for trends and inter‐annual variability (IAV). The forest was a mean annual carbon sink (252 [±42] gC m‐2a‐1), and NEP increased at rate +6.4–7.0 gC m‐2a‐1 (or ca. +2.5% a‐1) during the period. This was attributed to the increasing gross‐primary productivity GPP and occurred without detectable change in ET. The start of annual carbon uptake period was advanced by 0.7 d a‐1, and increase in GPP and NEP outside the main growing season contributed ca. one‐third and one‐fourth of the annual trend, respectively. Meteorological factors were responsible for the IAV of fluxes but did not explain the long‐term trends. The growing season GPP trend was strongest in ample light during the peak growing season. Using a multi‐layer ecosystem model, we showed that direct CO2 fertilization effect diminishes when moving from leaf to ecosystem, and only 30–40% of the observed ecosystem GPP increase could be attributed to CO2. The increasing trend in leaf‐area index (LAI), stimulated by forest thinning in 2002, was the main driver of the enhanced GPP and NEP of the mid‐rotation managed forest. It also compensated for the decrease of mean leaf stomatal conductance with increasing CO2 and LAI, explaining the apparent proportionality between observed GPP and CO2 trends. The results emphasize that attributing trends to their physical and physiological drivers is challenged by strong IAV, and uncertainty of LAI and species composition changes due to the dynamic flux footprint. The results enlighten the underlying mechanisms responsible for the increasing terrestrial carbon uptake in the boreal zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest represents the terrestrial biome most heavily affected by climate change. However, no consensus exists regarding the impacts of these changes on the growth of tree species therein. Moreover, assessments of young tree responses in metrics transposable to forest management remain scarce. Here, we assessed the impacts of climate change on black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller] BSP) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lambert) growth, two dominant tree species in boreal forests of North America. Starting with a retrospective analysis including data from 2591 black spruces and 890 jack pines, we forecasted trends in 30‐year height growth at the transitions from closed to open boreal coniferous forests in Québec, Canada. We considered three variables: (1) height growth, rarely used, but better‐reflecting site potential than other growth proxies, (2) climate normals corresponding to the growth period of each stem, and (3) site type (as a function of texture, stoniness, and drainage), which can modify the effects of climate on tree growth. We found a positive effect of vapor pressure deficit on the growth of both species, although the effect on black spruce leveled off. For black spruce, temperatures had a positive effect on the height at 30 years, which was attenuated when and where climatic conditions became drier. Conversely, drought had a positive effect on height under cold conditions and a negative effect under warm conditions. Spruce growth was also better on mesic than on rocky and sub‐hydric sites. For portions of the study areas with projected future climate within the calibration range, median height‐change varied from 10 to 31% for black spruce and from 5 to 31% for jack pine, depending on the period and climate scenario. As projected increases are relatively small, they may not be sufficient to compensate for potential increases in future disturbances like forest fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities have drastically increased nitrogen (N) deposition onto forests globally. This may have alleviated N limitation and thus stimulated productivity and carbon (C) sequestration in aboveground woody biomass (AGWB), a stable C pool with long turnover times. This 'carbon bonus' of human N use partly offsets the climate impact of human‐induced N2O emissions, but its magnitude and spatial variation are uncertain. Here we used a meta‐regression approach to identify sources of heterogeneity in tree biomass C‐N response (additional C stored per unit of N) based on data from fertilization experiments in global forests. We identified important drivers of spatial variation in forest biomass C‐N response related to climate (potential evapotranspiration), soil fertility (N content) and tree characteristics (stand age), and used these relationships to quantify global spatial variation in N‐induced forest biomass C sequestration. Results show that N deposition enhances biomass C sequestration in only one‐third of global forests, mainly in the boreal region, while N reduces C sequestration in 5% of forests, mainly in the tropics. In the remaining 59% of global forests, N addition has no impact on biomass C sequestration. Average C‐N responses were 11 (4–21) kg C per kg N for boreal forests, 4 (0–8) kg C per kg N for temperate forests and 0 (−4 to 5) kg C per kg N for tropical forests. Our global estimate of the N‐induced forest biomass C sink of 41 (−53 to 159) Tg C yr−1 is substantially lower than previous estimates, mainly due to the absence of any response in most tropical forests (accounting for 58% of the global forest area). Overall, the N‐induced C sink in AGWB only offsets ~5% of the climate impact of N2O emissions (in terms of 100‐year global warming potential), and contributes ~1% to the gross forest C sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite great concern for drought‐driven forest mortality, the effects of frequent low‐intensity droughts have been largely overlooked in the boreal forest because of their negligible impacts over the short term. In this study, we used data from 6876 permanent plots distributed across most of the Canadian boreal zone to assess the effects of repeated low‐intensity droughts on forest mortality. Specifically, we compared the relative impact of sequential years under low‐intensity dry conditions with the effects of variables related to the intensity of dry conditions, stand characteristics, and local climate. Then, we searched for thresholds in forest mortality as a function of the number of years between two forest surveys affected by dry conditions of any intensity. Our results showed that, in general, frequent low‐intensity dry conditions had stronger effects on forest mortality than the intensity of the driest conditions in the plot. Frequent low‐intensity dry conditions acted as an inciting factor of forest mortality exacerbated by stand characteristics and environmental conditions. Overall, the mortality of forests dominated by shade‐tolerant conifers was significantly and positively related to frequent low‐intensity dry conditions, supporting, in some cases, the existence of thresholds delimiting contrasting responses to drought. In mixtures with broadleaf species, however, sequential dry conditions had a negligible impact. The effects of frequent dry conditions on shade‐intolerant forests mainly depended on local climate, inciting or mitigating the mortality of forests located in wet places and dominated by broadleaf species or jack pine, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of assessing not only climate‐driven extreme events but also repeated disturbances of low intensity. In the long term, the smooth response of forests to dry conditions might abruptly change leading to disproportional mortality triggered by accumulated stress conditions. Forest and wildlife managers should consider the cumulative effects of climate change on mortality to avoid shortfalls in timber and habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poleward shifts in species distributions are expected and frequently observed with a warming climate. In Arctic ecosystems, the strong warming trends are associated with increasing greenness and shrubification. Vertebrate herbivores have the potential to limit greening and shrub advance and expansion on the tundra, posing the question of whether changes in herbivore communities could partly mediate the impacts of climate warming on Arctic tundra. Therefore, future changes in the herbivore community in the Arctic tundra will depend on whether the community tracks the changing climates directly (i.e. occurs in response to temperature) or indirectly, in response to vegetation changes (which can be modified by trophic interactions). In this study, we used biogeographic and remotely sensed data to quantify spatial variation in vertebrate herbivore communities across the boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. We then tested whether present-day herbivore community structure is determined primarily by temperature or vegetation. We demonstrate that vertebrate herbivore communities are significantly more diverse in the boreal forest than in the Arctic tundra in terms of species richness, phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity. A clear shift in community structure was observed at the biome boundary, with stronger northward declines in diversity in the Arctic tundra. Interestingly, important functional traits characterizing the role of herbivores in limiting tundra vegetation change, such as body mass and woody plant feeding, did not show threshold changes across the biome boundary. Temperature was a more important determinant of herbivore community structure across these biomes than vegetation productivity or woody plant cover. Thus, our study does not support the premise that herbivore-driven limitation of Arctic tundra shrubification or greening would limit herbivore community change in the tundra. Instead, borealization of tundra herbivore communities is likely to result from the direct effect of climate warming. K E YWORDS Arctic tundra, biome boundary, boreal forest, [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil microbes are the fundamental engine for carbon (C) cycling. Microbial residence time (MRT) therefore determines the mineralization of soil organic C, releasing C as heterotrophic respiration and contributing substantially to the C efflux in terrestrial ecosystems. We took use of a comprehensive dataset (2627 data points) and calculated the MRT based on the basal respiration and microbial biomass C. Large variations in MRT were found among biomes, with the largest MRT in boreal forests and grasslands and smallest in natural wetlands. Biogeographic patterns of MRT were found along climate variables (temperature and precipitation), vegetation variables (root C density and net primary productivity), and edaphic factors (soil texture, pH, topsoil porosity, soil C, and total nitrogen). Among environmental factors, edaphic properties dominate the MRT variations. We further mapped the MRT at the global scale with an empirical model. The simulated and observed MRT were highly consistent at plot-(R²= .86), site-(R² = .88), and biome-(R² = .99) levels. The global average of MRT was estimated to be 38 (±5) days. A clear latitudinal biogeographic pattern was found for MRT with lower values in tropical regions and higher values in the Arctic. The biome-and global-level estimates of MRT serve as valuable data for parameterizing and benchmarking microbial models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest growth in most parts of the boreal zone is originally limited by low temperatures and low nitrogen availability. Due to the rapid climate warming at high latitudes, an increasing forest area is switching to drought limitation, especially in continental and southern parts of the boreal forest. Studies addressing this issue were mostly dendrochronological and remote‐sensing analyses focusing on climatic effects, but not answering the question whether drought is effective alone or in combination with nitrogen shortage at limiting the forests' productivity and vitality. Here we show in a case study from larch forests of Mongolia with a combination of stable isotope analyses, tree‐ring analysis and bioindication of the local variability of livestock densities using epiphytic lichens that, in the studied highly drought‐prone forests at the southern fringe of the boreal forest in Inner Asia, the trees' vulnerability to drought is modified by nitrogen fertilization from livestock kept in the vicinity and the edge of the forests. The most likely mechanism behind this drought‐nitrogen interaction is the reduction of stomatal conductance, which is known to be induced by low nitrogen levels in plants. Nitrogen fertilization by the livestock could, thus, shorten the times of stomatal closure and thereby increase tree growth, which we measured as radial stem increment. Even though the underlying mechanisms, which were so far examined in angiosperms, should be experimentally tested for conifers, our results indicate that focusing on water alone is not enough to understand the climate change response of drought‐limited boreal forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is accelerating the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM). When predicting the net SOM dynamics in response to warming, there are considerable uncertainties owing to experimental limitations. Long‐term in situ whole‐profile soil warming studies are particularly rare. This study used a long‐term, naturally occurring geothermal gradient in Yukon, Canada, to investigate the warming effects on SOM in a forest ecosystem. Soils were sampled along this thermosequence which exhibited warming of up to 7.7℃; samples were collected to a depth of 80 cm and analysed for soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) content, and estimates made of SOC stock and fractions. Potential litter decomposition rates as a function of soil temperature and depth were observed for a 1‐year period using buried teabags and temperature loggers. The SOC in the topsoil (0–20 cm) and subsoil (20–80 cm) responded similar to warming. A negative relationship was found between soil temperature and whole‐profile SOC stocks, with a total loss of 27% between the warmest and reference plots, and a relative loss of 3%℃−1. SOC losses were restricted to the particulate organic matter (POM) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fractions with net whole‐profile depletions. Losses in POM‐C accounted for the largest share of the total SOC losses. In contrast to SOC, N was not lost from the soil as a result of warming, but was redistributed with a relatively large accumulation in the silt and clay fraction (+40%). This suggests an immobilization of N by microbes building up in mineral‐associated organic matter. These results confirm that soil warming accelerates SOC turnover throughout the profile and C is lost in both the topsoil and subsoil. Since N stocks remained constant with warming, SOM stoichiometry changed considerably and this in turn could affect C cycling through changes in microbial metabolism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extreme 2018 hot drought that affected central and northern Europe led to the worst wildfire season in Sweden in over a century. The Ljusdal fire complex, the largest area burnt that year (8995 ha), offered a rare opportunity to quantify the combined impacts of wildfire and post‐fire management on Scandinavian boreal forests. We present chamber measurements of soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes, soil microclimate and nutrient content from five Pinus sylvestris sites for the first growing season after the fire. We analysed the effects of three factors on forest soils: burn severity, salvage‐logging and stand age. None of these caused significant differences in soil CH4 uptake. Soil respiration, however, declined significantly after a high‐severity fire (complete tree mortality) but not after a low‐severity fire (no tree mortality), despite substantial losses of the organic layer. Tree root respiration is thus key in determining post‐fire soil CO2 emissions and may benefit, along with heterotrophic respiration, from the nutrient pulse after a low‐severity fire. Salvage‐logging after a high‐severity fire had no significant effects on soil carbon fluxes, microclimate or nutrient content compared with leaving the dead trees standing, although differences are expected to emerge in the long term. In contrast, the impact of stand age was substantial: a young burnt stand experienced more extreme microclimate, lower soil nutrient supply and significantly lower soil respiration than a mature burnt stand, due to a thinner organic layer and the decade‐long effects of a previous clear‐cut and soil scarification. Disturbance history and burn severity are, therefore, important factors for predicting changes in the boreal forest carbon sink after wildfires. The presented short‐term effects and ongoing monitoring will provide essential information for sustainable management strategies in response to the increasing risk of wildfire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological shifts, induced by global warming, can lead to mismatch between closely interacting species. The eastern spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, an important outbreaking insect defoliator in North America, mainly feeds on balsam fir, Abies balsamea, which has historically been well synchronized with the insect. But as climate change pushes the northern range limit of the budworm further north into the boreal forest, the highly valuable black spruce, Picea mariana, historically protected against the budworm by its late budburst phenology, is suffering increased defoliation during the current outbreak. We tested the hypothesis that rising temperatures can lead, not to a mismatch, but to an improved match between the budworm and black spruce through differential phenological advancement. For 3 years, eastern spruce budworm larvae were reared from instar 2 to pupae, on both black spruce and balsam fir, in a temperature free‐air controlled enhancement experiment (T‐FACE) consisting in 24 field plots, half of which were heated at +2°C from March to October. Our results show that every year, larval development was faster on heated trees and pupation was earlier than on unheated trees. Bud development was also accelerated in heated trees of both species. However, there was no difference in mass between pupae that developed at +2°C and controls at the end of the season. Finally, we found no difference either in development rate or pupal mass between larvae reared on black spruce and those reared on balsam fir. This suggests that under higher temperature regimes, eastern spruce budworm will be as successful on black spruce as on balsam fir, as black spruce budburst becomes better synchronized with the insect's emergence from diapause. This could lead to critical changes in outbreak dynamics and severity with important ecological state shifts at the landscape level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees in northern latitude ecosystems are projected to experience increasing drought stress as a result of rising air temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns in northern latitude ecosystems. However, most drought‐related studies on high‐latitude boreal forests (>50°N) have been conducted in North America, with few studies quantifying the response in European and Eurasian boreal forests. Here, we tested how daily whole‐tree transpiration (Q, Liters day−1) and Q normalized for mean daytime vapor pressure deficit (QDZ, Liters day−1 kPa−1) were affected by the historic 2018 drought in Europe. More specifically, we examined how tree species, size, and topographic position affected drought response in high‐latitude mature boreal forest trees. We monitored 30 Pinus sylvestris (pine) and 30 Picea abies (spruce) trees distributed across a topographic gradient in northern Sweden. In general, pine showed a greater QDZ control compared to spruce during periods of severe drought (standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index: SPEI < −1.5), suggesting that the latter are more sensitive to drought. Overall, QDZ reductions (using non‐drought QDZ as reference) were less pronounced in larger trees during severe drought, but there was a species‐specific pattern: QDZ reductions were greater in pine trees at high elevations and greater in spruce trees at lower elevations. Despite lower QDZ during severe drought, drought spells were interspersed with small precipitation events and overcast conditions, and QDZ returned to pre‐drought conditions relatively quickly. This study highlights unique species‐specific responses to drought, which are additionally driven by a codependent interaction among tree size, relative topographic position, and unique regional climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest mortality and resilience driven by drought disturbances have attracted tons of attention. However, the acquisition of continuous spatial–temporal data is generally enslaved to the conventional field investigations. In this study, the resilience of semiarid forest was characterized with canopy dynamics from remote sensing observations, combining the variations in canopy greenness and water content. We integrated dense normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference infrared index (NDII) time series from Landsat datasets, intending to assess the canopy resilience in 24 conifer patches along a climatic aridity gradient at the southern edge of the taiga in northern Mongolia and southern Siberia of Russia. The results exhibited four patterns of coordinated NDVI–NDII variation trends, indicating that the canopy water content of coniferous forests may decrease at first during a drought period, and sustained water loss may, in turn, induce an accompanying reduction in canopy greenness. Meanwhile, the patches with canopy recovery growth after initial declines were considered to have resilience to climate change. We further observed the combined effects of aridity degree and tree age on canopy resilience, and all seven patches with no resilience corresponded to the old‐tree group (the oldest trees reached or exceeded the age of 90). The observations indicated that the old‐growth forests in semiarid regions were less likely to show canopy resilience, which corresponded to a higher risk of sustained decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal peatland forests have relatively low species diversity and thus impacts of climate change on one or more dominant species could shift ecosystem function. Despite abundant soil water availability, shallowly rooted vascular plants within peatlands may not be able to meet foliar demand for water under drought or heat events that increase vapor pressure deficits while reducing near surface water availability, although concurrent increases in atmospheric CO2 could buffer resultant hydraulic stress. We assessed plant water relations of co‐occurring shrub (primarily Rhododendron groenlandicum and Chamaedaphne calyculata) and tree (Picea mariana and Larix laricina) species prior to, and in response to whole ecosystem warming (0 to +9°C) and elevated CO2 using 12.8‐m diameter open‐top enclosures installed within an ombrotrophic bog. Water relations (water potential [Ψ], turgor loss point, foliar and root hydraulic conductivity) were assessed prior to treatment initiation, then Ψ and peak sap flow (trees only) assessed after 1 or 2 years of treatments. Under the higher temperature treatments, L. laricina Ψ exceeded its turgor loss point, increased its peak sap flow, and was not able to recover Ψ overnight. In contrast, P. mariana operated below its turgor loss point and maintained constant Ψ and sap flow across warming treatments. Similarly, C. calyculata Ψ stress increased with temperature while R. groenlandicum Ψ remained at pretreatment levels. The more anisohydric behavior of L. laricina and C. calyculata may provide greater net C uptake with warming, while the more conservative P. mariana and R. groenlandicum maintained greater hydraulic safety. These latter species also responded to elevated CO2 by reduced Ψ stress, which may also help limit hydraulic failure during periods of extreme drought or heat in the future. Along with Sphagnum moss, the species‐specific responses of peatland vascular communities to drier or hotter conditions will shape boreal peatland composition and function in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increase in frost damage to trees due to earlier spring dehardening could outweigh the expected increase in forest productivity caused by climate warming. We quantified the impact of growing‐season frosts on the performance of three spruce species (white, black, and Norway spruce) and various seed sources with different frost tolerance in two plantations, established on both sides of the eastern Canadian boreal‐temperate forest ecotone. The objectives of this study were to determine (a) if spruce species and seed sources planted in sites far from their natural provenance would be less adapted to local site conditions, leading to increased frost damage and reduced height growth; (b) at which height above the ground growing‐season frosts ceased to damage apical meristems; and (c) if height growth was best predicted by extreme climatic events (growing‐season frosts) or by mean annual or summer temperature. At each site and for all spruce species and seed sources, we cross‐sectioned spruce trees at different heights above the ground. Tree rings were cross‐dated and screened for frost rings, which were then given a severity score based on cellular damage. Frost severity reduced height growth of all spruce species and provenances at both sites. Height growth of the non‐native Norway spruce was the most reduced by frost severity and was the smallest species at both sites. Frost caused the highest growth reduction in white spruce at the boreal mixedwood site and had the least effect on black spruce at both sites. For all spruce species, height growth was affected up to 2 m above the ground. Model selection based on corrected Akaike's information criteria (AICc) identified that minimum temperature in May was by far the best climate variable predicting tree growth (AICc weight = 1), highlighting the importance of considering extreme climatic events, which are likely to increase in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal wildfires are increasing in intensity, extent, and frequency, potentially intensifying carbon emissions and transitioning the region from a globally significant carbon sink to a source. The productive southern boreal forests of central Canada already experience relatively high frequencies of fire, and as such may serve as an analog of future carbon dynamics for more northern forests. Fire–carbon dynamics in southern boreal systems are relatively understudied, with limited investigation into the drivers of pre‐fire carbon stocks or subsequent combustion. As part of NASA's Arctic‐Boreal Vulnerability Experiment, we sampled 79 stands (47 burned, 32 unburned) throughout central Saskatchewan to characterize above‐ and belowground carbon stocks and combustion rates in relation to historical land use, vegetation characteristics, and geophysical attributes. We found southern boreal forests emitted an average of 3.3 ± 1.1 kg C/m2 from field sites. The emissions from southern boreal stands varied as a function of stand age, fire weather conditions, ecozone, and soil moisture class. Sites affected by historical timber harvesting had greater combustion rates due to faster carbon stock recovery rates than sites recovering from wildfire events, indicating that different boreal forest land use practices can generate divergent carbon legacy effects. We estimate the 2015 fire season in Saskatchewan emitted a total of 36.3 ± 15.0 Tg C, emphasizing the importance of southern boreal fires for regional carbon budgets. Using the southern boreal as an analog, the northern boreal may undergo fundamental shifts in forest structure and carbon dynamics, becoming dominated by stands <70 years old that hold 2–7 kg C/m2 less than current mature northern boreal stands. Our latitudinal approach reinforces previous studies showing that northern boreal stands are at a high risk of holding less carbon under changing disturbance conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change induces multiple abiotic and biotic risks to forests and forestry. Risks in different spatial and temporal scales must be considered to ensure preconditions for sustainable multifunctional management of forests for different ecosystem services. For this purpose, the present review article summarizes the most recent findings on major abiotic and biotic risks to boreal forests in Finland under the current and changing climate, with the focus on windstorms, heavy snow loading, drought and forest fires and major insect pests and pathogens of trees. In general, the forest growth is projected to increase mainly in northern Finland. In the south, the growing conditions may become suboptimal, particularly for Norway spruce. Although the wind climate does not change remarkably, wind damage risk will increase especially in the south, because of the shortening of the soil frost period. The risk of snow damage is anticipated to increase in the north and decrease in the south. Increasing drought in summer will boost the risk of large‐scale forest fires. Also, the warmer climate increases the risk of bark beetle outbreaks and the wood decay by Heterobasidion root rot in coniferous forests. The probability of detrimental cascading events, such as those caused by a large‐scale wind damage followed by a widespread bark beetle outbreak, will increase remarkably in the future. Therefore, the simultaneous consideration of the biotic and abiotic risks is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) in tree rings is commonly used to derive estimates of the assimilation‐to‐stomatal conductance rate of trees, that is, intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE). Recent studies have observed increased iWUE in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca), in many different species, genera and biomes. However, increasing rates of iWUE vary widely from one study to another, likely because numerous covarying factors are involved. Here, we quantified changes in iWUE of two widely distributed boreal conifers using tree samples from a forest inventory network that were collected across a wide range of growing conditions (assessed using the site index, SI), developmental stages and stand histories. Using tree‐ring isotopes analysis, we assessed the magnitude of increase in iWUE after accounting for the effects of tree size, stand age, nitrogen deposition, climate and SI. We also estimated how growth conditions have modulated tree physiological responses to rising Ca. We found that increases in tree size and stand age greatly influenced iWUE. The effect of Ca on iWUE was strongly reduced after accounting for these two variables. iWUE increased in response to Ca, mostly in trees growing on fertile stands, whereas iWUE remained almost unchanged on poor sites. Our results suggest that past studies could have overestimated the CO2 effect on iWUE, potentially leading to biased inferences about the future net carbon balance of the boreal forest. We also observed that this CO2 effect is weakening, which could affect the future capacity of trees to resist and recover from drought episodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non‐climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada, to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional‐scale forest transitions. We used a continuous‐time multi‐state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short‐term transient dynamics and long‐term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long‐term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad‐scale biome shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leading up to the Convention on Biological Diversity Conference of the Parties 15, there is momentum around setting bold conservation targets. Yet, it remains unclear how much of Earth's land area remains without significant human influence and where this land is located. We compare four recent global maps of human influences across Earth's land, Anthromes, Global Human Modification, Human Footprint and Low Impact Areas, to answer these questions. Despite using various methodologies and data, these different spatial assessments independently estimate similar percentages of the Earth's terrestrial surface as having very low (20%–34%) and low (48%–56%) human influence. Three out of four spatial assessments agree on 46% of the non‐permanent ice‐ or snow‐covered land as having low human influence. However, much of the very low and low influence portions of the planet are comprised of cold (e.g., boreal forests, montane grasslands and tundra) or arid (e.g., deserts) landscapes. Only four biomes (boreal forests, deserts, temperate coniferous forests and tundra) have a majority of datasets agreeing that at least half of their area has very low human influence. More concerning, <1% of temperate grasslands, tropical coniferous forests and tropical dry forests have very low human influence across most datasets, and tropical grasslands, mangroves and montane grasslands also have <1% of land identified as very low influence across all datasets. These findings suggest that about half of Earth's terrestrial surface has relatively low human influence and offers opportunities for proactive conservation actions to retain the last intact ecosystems on the planet. However, though the relative abundance of ecosystem areas with low human influence varies widely by biome, conserving these last intact areas should be a high priority before they are completely lost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The magnitude of the nitrogen (N) limitation of terrestrial carbon (C) storage over the 21st century is highly uncertain because of the complex interactions between the terrestrial C and N cycles. We use an ensemble approach to quantify and attribute process‐level uncertainty in C‐cycle projections by analysing a 30‐member ensemble representing published alternative representations of key N cycle processes (stoichiometry, biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and ecosystem N losses) within the framework of one terrestrial biosphere model. Despite large differences in the simulated present‐day N cycle, primarily affecting simulated productivity north of 40°N, ensemble members generally conform with global C‐cycle benchmarks for present‐day conditions. Ensemble projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) show that the increase in land C storage due to CO2 fertilization is reduced by 24 ± 15% due to N constraints, whereas terrestrial C losses associated with climate change are attenuated by 19 ± 20%. As a result, N cycling reduces projected land C uptake for the years 2006–2099 by 19% (37% decrease to 3% increase) for RCP 2.6, and by 21% (40% decrease to 9% increase) for RCP 8.5. Most of the ensemble spread results from uncertainty in temperate and boreal forests, and is dominated by uncertainty in BNF (10% decrease to 50% increase for RCP 2.6, 5% decrease to 100% increase for RCP 8.5). However, choices about the flexibility of ecosystem C:N ratios and processes controlling ecosystem N losses regionally also play important roles. The findings of this study demonstrate clearly the need for an ensemble approach to quantify likely future terrestrial C–N cycle trajectories. Present‐day C‐cycle observations only weakly constrain the future ensemble spread, highlighting the need for better observational constraints on large‐scale N cycling, and N cycle process responses to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest–tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site‐specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non‐growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103–104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model‐based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global‐change‐related biotic and abiotic implications, including land–atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relationships between gross primary productivity (GPP) and the remotely sensed photochemical reflectance index (PRI) suggest that time series of foliar PRI may provide insight into climate change effects on carbon cycling. However, because a large fraction of carbon assimilated via GPP is quickly returned to the atmosphere via respiration, we ask a critical question—can PRI time series provide information about longer term gains in aboveground carbon stocks? Here we study the suitability of PRI time series to understand intra‐annual stem‐growth dynamics at one of the world's largest terrestrial carbon pools—the boreal forest. We hypothesized that PRI time series can be used to determine the onset (hypothesis 1) and cessation (hypothesis 2) of radial growth and enable tracking of intra‐annual tree growth dynamics (hypothesis 3). Tree‐level measurements were collected in 2018 and 2019 to link highly temporally resolved PRI observations unambiguously with information on daily radial tree growth collected via point dendrometers. We show that the seasonal onset of photosynthetic activity as determined by PRI time series was significantly earlier (p <.05) than the onset of radial tree growth determined from the point dendrometer time series which does not support our first hypothesis. In contrast, seasonal decline of photosynthetic activity and cessation of radial tree growth was not significantly different (p >.05) when derived from PRI and dendrometer time series, respectively, supporting our second hypothesis. Mixed‐effects modeling results supported our third hypothesis by showing that the PRI was a statistically significant (p <.0001) predictor of intra‐annual radial tree growth dynamics, and tracked these daily radial tree‐growth dynamics in remarkable detail with conditional and marginal coefficients of determination of 0.48 and 0.96 (for 2018) and 0.43 and 0.98 (for 2019), respectively. Our findings suggest that PRI could provide novel insights into nuances of carbon cycling dynamics by alleviating important uncertainties associated with intra‐annual vegetation response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal biome exchanges large amounts of carbon (C) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) with the atmosphere and thus significantly affects the global climate. A managed boreal landscape consists of various sinks and sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC) across forests, mires, lakes, and streams. Due to the spatial heterogeneity, large uncertainties exist regarding the net landscape carbon balance (NLCB). In this study, we compiled terrestrial and aquatic fluxes of CO2, CH4, DOC, DIC, and harvested C obtained from tall‐tower eddy covariance measurements, stream monitoring, and remote sensing of biomass stocks for an entire boreal catchment (~68 km2) in Sweden to estimate the NLCB across the land–water–atmosphere continuum. Our results showed that this managed boreal forest landscape was a net C sink (NLCB = 39 g C m−2 year−1) with the landscape–atmosphere CO2 exchange being the dominant component, followed by the C export via harvest and streams. Accounting for the global warming potential of CH4, the landscape was a GHG sink of 237 g CO2‐eq m−2 year−1, thus providing a climate‐cooling effect. The CH4 flux contribution to the annual GHG budget increased from 0.6% during spring to 3.2% during winter. The aquatic C loss was most significant during spring contributing 8% to the annual NLCB. We further found that abiotic controls (e.g., air temperature and incoming radiation) regulated the temporal variability of the NLCB whereas land cover types (e.g., mire vs. forest) and management practices (e.g., clear‐cutting) determined their spatial variability. Our study advocates the need for integrating terrestrial and aquatic fluxes at the landscape scale based on tall‐tower eddy covariance measurements combined with biomass stock and stream monitoring to develop a holistic understanding of the NLCB of managed boreal forest landscapes and to better evaluate their potential for mitigating climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]