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Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS-derived ‘blue sky’ albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire-driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of −1.77 ± 1.35 W/m 2 from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971–2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south–north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large-scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long-term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%–28% due to climate change.

Climate warming and drying is associated with increased wildfire disturbance and the emergence of megafires in North American boreal forests. Changes to the fire regime are expected to strongly increase combustion emissions of carbon (C) which could alter regional C balance and positively feedback to climate warming. In order to accurately estimate C emissions and thereby better predict future climate feedbacks, there is a need to understand the major sources of heterogeneity that impact C emissions at different scales. Here, we examined 211 field plots in boreal forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) or jack pine (Pinus banksiana) of the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada after an unprecedentedly large area burned in 2014. We assessed both aboveground and soil organic layer (SOL) combustion, with the goal of determining the major drivers in total C emissions, as well as to develop a high spatial resolution model to scale emissions in a relatively understudied region of the boreal forest. On average, 3.35 kg C m-2 was combusted and almost 90% of this was from SOL combustion. Our results indicate that black spruce stands located at landscape positions with intermediate drainage contribute the most to C emissions. Indices associated with fire weather and date of burn did not impact emissions, which we attribute to the extreme fire weather over a short period of time. Using these results, we estimated a total of 94.3 Tg C emitted from 2.85 Mha of burned area across the entire 2014 NWT fire complex, which offsets almost 50% of mean annual net ecosystem production in terrestrial ecosystems of Canada. Our study also highlights the need for fine-scale estimates of burned area that represent small water bodies and regionally specific calibrations of combustion that account for spatial heterogeneity in order to accurately model emissions at the continental scale.

Rich fens are common boreal ecosystems with distinct hydrology, biogeochemistry and ecology that influence their carbon (C) balance. We present growing season soil chamber methane emission (FCH4), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes from a 9-years water table manipulation experiment in an Alaskan rich fen. The study included major flood and drought years, where wetting and drying treatments further modified the severity of droughts. Results support previous findings from peatlands that drought causes reduced magnitude of growing season FCH4, GPP and NEE, thus reducing or reversing their C sink function. Experimentally exacerbated droughts further reduced the capacity for the fen to act as a C sink by causing shifts in vegetation and thus reducing magnitude of maximum growing season GPP in subsequent flood years by ~15% compared to control plots. Conversely, water table position had only a weak influence on ER, but dominant contribution to ER switched from autotrophic respiration in wet years to heterotrophic in dry years. Droughts did not cause inter-annual lag effects on ER in this rich fen, as has been observed in several nutrient-poor peatlands. While ER was dependent on soil temperatures at 2 cm depth, FCH4 was linked to soil temperatures at 25 cm. Inter-annual variability of deep soil temperatures was in turn dependent on wetness rather than air temperature, and higher FCH4 in flooded years was thus equally due to increased methane production at depth and decreased methane oxidation near the surface. Short-term fluctuations in wetness caused significant lag effects on FCH4, but droughts caused no inter-annual lag effects on FCH4. Our results show that frequency and severity of droughts and floods can have characteristic effects on the exchange of greenhouse gases, and emphasize the need to project future hydrological regimes in rich fens.

Wildfire is the dominant disturbance in boreal forests and fire activity is increasing in these regions. Soil fungal communities are important for plant growth and nutrient cycling postfire but there is little understanding of how fires impact fungal communities across landscapes, fire severity gradients, and stand types in boreal forests. Understanding relationships between fungal community composition, particularly mycorrhizas, and understory plant composition is therefore important in predicting how future fire regimes may affect vegetation. We used an extreme wildfire event in boreal forests of Canada's Northwest Territories to test drivers of fungal communities and assess relationships with plant communities. We sampled soils from 39 plots 1 year after fire and 8 unburned plots. High-throughput sequencing (MiSeq, ITS) revealed 2,034 fungal operational taxonomic units. We found soil pH and fire severity (proportion soil organic layer combusted), and interactions between these drivers were important for fungal community structure (composition, richness, diversity, functional groups). Where fire severity was low, samples with low pH had higher total fungal, mycorrhizal, and saprotroph richness compared to where severity was high. Increased fire severity caused declines in richness of total fungi, mycorrhizas, and saprotrophs, and declines in diversity of total fungi and mycorrhizas. The importance of stand age (a surrogate for fire return interval) for fungal composition suggests we could detect long-term successional patterns even after fire. Mycorrhizal and plant community composition, richness, and diversity were weakly but significantly correlated. These weak relationships and the distribution of fungi across plots suggest that the underlying driver of fungal community structure is pH, which is modified by fire severity. This study shows the importance of edaphic factors in determining fungal community structure at large scales, but suggests these patterns are mediated by interactions between fire and forest stand composition.

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane. Here, we assess controls on methane flux using a database of approximately 19 000 instantaneous measurements from 71 wetland sites located across subtropical, temperate, and northern high latitude regions. Our analyses confirm general controls on wetland methane emissions from soil temperature, water table, and vegetation, but also show that these relationships are modified depending on wetland type (bog, fen, or swamp), region (subarctic to temperate), and disturbance. Fen methane flux was more sensitive to vegetation and less sensitive to temperature than bog or swamp fluxes. The optimal water table for methane flux was consistently below the peat surface in bogs, close to the peat surface in poor fens, and above the peat surface in rich fens. However, the largest flux in bogs occurred when dry 30-day averaged antecedent conditions were followed by wet conditions, while in fens and swamps, the largest flux occurred when both 30-day averaged antecedent and current conditions were wet. Drained wetlands exhibited distinct characteristics, e.g. the absence of large flux following wet and warm conditions, suggesting that the same functional relationships between methane flux and environmental conditions cannot be used across pristine and disturbed wetlands. Together, our results suggest that water table and temperature are dominant controls on methane flux in pristine bogs and swamps, while other processes, such as vascular transport in pristine fens, have the potential to partially override the effect of these controls in other wetland types. Because wetland types vary in methane emissions and have distinct controls, these ecosystems need to be considered separately to yield reliable estimates of global wetland methane release.

Methane (CH4 ) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near-surface permafrost had lower CH4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost-free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high-latitude CH4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.

Forest fires are a significant and natural element of the circumboreal forest. Fire activity is strongly linked to weather, and increased fire activity due to climate change is anticipated or arguably has already occurred. Recent studies suggest a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century. Fire management agencies’ ability to cope with these increases in fire activity is limited, as these organizations operate with a narrow margin between success and failure; a disproportionate number of fires may escape initial attack under a warmer climate, resulting in an increase in area burned that will be much greater than the corresponding increase in fire weather severity. There may be only a decade or two before increased fire activity means fire management agencies cannot maintain their current levels of effectiveness.

The influence of discontinuous permafrost on ground-fuel storage, combustion losses, and postfire soil climates was examined after a wildfire near Delta Junction, AK in July 1999. At this site, we sampled soils from a four-way site comparison of burning (burned and unburned) and permafrost (permafrost and nonpermafrost). Soil organic layers (which comprise ground-fuel storage) were thicker in permafrost than nonpermafrost soils both in burned and unburned sites. While we expected fire severity to be greater in the drier site (without permafrost), combustion losses were not significantly different between the two burned sites. Overall, permafrost and burning had significant effects on physical soil variables. Most notably, unburned permafrost sites with the thickest organic mats consistently had the coldest temperatures and wettest mineral soil, while soils in the burned nonpermafrost sites were warmer and drier than the other soils. For every centimeter of organic mat thickness, temperature at 5cm depth was about 0.51C cooler during summer months. We propose that organic soil layers determine to a large extent the physical and thermal setting for variations in vegetation, decomposition, and carbon balance across these landscapes. In particular, the deep organic layers maintain the legacies of thermal and nutrient cycling governed by fire and revegetation. We further propose that the thermal influence of deep organic soil layers may be an underlying mechanism responsible for large regional patterns of burning and regrowth, detected in fractal analyses of burn frequency and area. Thus, fractal geometry can potentially be used to analyze changes in state of these fire prone systems.

Permafrost thaw can alter the soil environment through changes in soil moisture, frequently resulting in soil saturation, a shift to anaerobic decomposition, and changes in the plant community. These changes, along with thawing of previously frozen organic material, can alter the form and magnitude of greenhouse gas production from permafrost ecosystems. We synthesized existing methane (CH

High-latitude ecosystems store approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C), which is twice as much C as is currently contained in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw and subsequent microbial decomposition of permafrost organic matter could add large amounts of C to the atmosphere, thereby influencing the global C cycle. The rates at which C is being released from the permafrost zone at different soil depths and across different physiographic regions are poorly understood but crucial in understanding future changes in permafrost C storage with climate change. We assessed the inherent decomposability of C from the permafrost zone by assembling a database of long-term (>1 year) aerobic soil incubations from 121 individual samples from 23 high-latitude ecosystems located across the northern circumpolar permafrost zone. Using a three-pool (i.e., fast, slow and passive) decomposition model, we estimated pool sizes for C fractions with different turnover times and their inherent decomposition rates using a reference temperature of 5 °C. Fast cycling C accounted for less than 5% of all C in both organic and mineral soils whereas the pool size of slow cycling C increased with C : N. Turnover time at 5 °C of fast cycling C typically was below 1 year, between 5 and 15 years for slow turning over C, and more than 500 years for passive C. We project that between 20 and 90% of the organic C could potentially be mineralized to CO2 within 50 incubation years at a constant temperature of 5 °C, with vulnerability to loss increasing in soils with higher C : N. These results demonstrate the variation in the vulnerability of C stored in permafrost soils based on inherent differences in organic matter decomposability, and point toward C : N as an index of decomposability that has the potential to be used to scale permafrost C loss across landscapes.

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO2 and CH4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005-2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.