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Many species with broad distributions are exposed to different thermal regimes which often select for varied phenotypes. This intraspecific variation is often overlooked but may be critical in dictating the vulnerability of different populations to environmental change. We reared Port Jackson shark (Heterodontus portusjacksoni) eggs from two thermally discrete populations (i.e. Jervis Bay and Adelaide) under each location's present-day mean temperatures, predicted end-of-century temperatures and under reciprocal-cross conditions to establish intraspecific thermal sensitivity. Rearing temperatures strongly influenced ṀO2 Max and critical thermal limits, regardless of population, indicative of acclimation processes. However, there were significant population-level effects, such that Jervis Bay sharks, regardless of rearing temperature, did not exhibit differences in ṀO2 Rest , but under elevated temperatures exhibited reduced maximum swimming activity with step-wise increases in temperature. In contrast, Adelaide sharks reared under elevated temperatures doubled their ṀO2 Rest , relative to their present-day temperature counterparts; however, maximum swimming activity was not influenced. With respect to reciprocal-cross comparisons, few differences were detected between Jervis Bay and Adelaide sharks reared under ambient Jervis Bay temperatures. Similarly, juveniles (from both populations) reared under Adelaide conditions had similar thermal limits and swimming activity (maximum volitional velocity and distance) to each other, indicative of conserved acclimation capacity. However, under Adelaide temperatures, the ṀO2 Rest of Jervis Bay sharks was greater than that of Adelaide sharks. This indicates that the energetics of cooler water population (Adelaide) is likely more thermally sensitive than that of the warmer population (Jervis Bay). While unique to elasmobranchs, these data provide further support that by treating species as static, homogeneous populations, we ignore the impacts of thermal history and intraspecific variation on thermal sensitivity. With climate change, intraspecific variation will manifest as populations move, demographics change or extirpations occur, starting with the most sensitive populations.

Equatorial populations of marine species are predicted to be most impacted by global warming because they could be adapted to a narrow range of temperatures in their local environment. We investigated the thermal range at which aerobic metabolic performance is optimum in equatorial populations of coral reef fish in northern Papua New Guinea. Four species of damselfishes and two species of cardinal fishes were held for 14 days at 29, 31, 33, and 34 °C, which incorporated their existing thermal range (29-31 °C) as well as projected increases in ocean surface temperatures of up to 3 °C by the end of this century. Resting and maximum oxygen consumption rates were measured for each species at each temperature and used to calculate the thermal reaction norm of aerobic scope. Our results indicate that one of the six species, Chromis atripectoralis, is already living above its thermal optimum of 29 °C. The other five species appeared to be living close to their thermal optima (ca. 31 °C). Aerobic scope was significantly reduced in all species, and approached zero for two species at 3 °C above current-day temperatures. One species was unable to survive even short-term exposure to 34 °C. Our results indicate that low-latitude reef fish populations are living close to their thermal optima and may be more sensitive to ocean warming than higher-latitude populations. Even relatively small temperature increases (2-3 °C) could result in population declines and potentially redistribution of equatorial species to higher latitudes if adaptation cannot keep pace.

Previous studies hailed thermal tolerance and the capacity for organisms to acclimate and adapt as the primary pathways for species survival under climate change. Here we challenge this theory. Over the past decade more than 365 tropical stenothermal fish species have been documented moving pole-ward, away from ocean warming hotspots where temperatures 2-3 °C above long-term annual means can compromise critical physiological processes. We examined the capacity of a model species - a thermally-sensitive coral reef fish, Chromis viridis (Pomacentridae) – to use preference behaviour to regulate its body temperature. Movement could potentially circumvent the physiological stress response associated with elevated temperatures and may be a strategy relied upon before genetic adaptation can be effectuated. Individuals were maintained at one of six temperatures (23, 25, 27, 29, 31 and 33 °C) for at least six weeks. We compared the relative importance of acclimation temperature to changes in upper critical thermal limits, aerobic metabolic scope, and thermal preference. While acclimation temperature positively affected the upper critical thermal limit, neither aerobic metabolic scope nor thermal preference exhibited such plasticity. Importantly, when given the choice to stay in a habitat reflecting their acclimation temperatures or relocate, fish acclimated to end-of-century predicted temperatures (i.e., 31 or 33 °C) preferentially sought out cooler temperatures, those equivalent to long-term summer averages in their natural habitats (~29 °C). This was also the temperature providing the greatest aerobic metabolic scope and body condition across all treatments. Consequently, acclimation can confer plasticity in some performance traits, but may be an unreliable indicator of the ultimate survival and distribution of mobile stenothermal species under global warming. Conversely, thermal preference can arise long before, and remain long after, the harmful effects of elevated ocean temperatures take hold and may be the primary driver of the escalating pole-ward migration of species.

Ocean warming and acidification are serious threats to marine life. While each stressor alone has been studied in detail, their combined effects on the outcome of ecological interactions are poorly understood. We measured predation rates and predator selectivity of two closely related species of damselfish exposed to a predatory dottyback. We found temperature and CO2 interacted synergistically on overall predation rate, but antagonistically on predator selectivity. Notably, elevated CO2 or temperature alone reversed predator selectivity, but the interaction between the two stressors cancelled selectivity. Routine metabolic rates of the two prey showed strong species differences in tolerance to CO2 and not temperature, but these differences did not correlate with recorded mortality. This highlights the difficulty of linking species-level physiological tolerance to resulting ecological outcomes. This study is the first to document both synergistic and antagonistic effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on a crucial ecological process like predator-prey dynamics.