1. Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios
- Author
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Luisa Conti, Rolland Douzet, Matthew V. Talluto, Mark van Kleunen, Ceres Barros, Svenja Block, Dietmar Moser, Stefan Dullinger, Isabelle Boulangeat, Oliver Bossdorf, Guenther Klonner, Iwona Dullinger, Damien Georges, Tamara Münkemüller, Marta Carboni, Wilfried Thuiller, Maya Guéguen, Emily Haeuser, Franz Essl, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA ), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Centre International de Recherche contre le Cancer - International Agency for Research on Cancer (CIRC - IARC), Organisation Mondiale de la Santé / World Health Organization Office (OMS / WHO), Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Station alpine Joseph Fourier - UMS 3370 (SAJF ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna [Vienna], Department of Ecology [Warsaw], Institute of Zoology [Warsaw], Faculty of Biology [Warsaw], University of Warsaw (UW)-University of Warsaw (UW)-Faculty of Biology [Warsaw], University of Warsaw (UW)-University of Warsaw (UW), Plant Evolutionary Ecology, University of Tübingen, Plant Evolutionary Ecology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany, Università degli Studi Roma Tre, University of Klagenfurt, FP7 People: Marie-Curie Actions : FP7-PEOPLE-2012-IEF, IASIMOV : 327616, ERA-Net BiodivERsA : I-1443-B25, Marie Curie Intra European Fellowship within the European Commission's Seventh Framework Program : IASIMOV 327616, French National Research Agency (ANR) : ANR-11-INBS-0001AnaEE-Services, Austrian Science Fund (FWF) : I 1443, Carboni, Marta, Guéguen, Maya, Barros, Cere, Georges, Damien, Boulangeat, Isabelle, Douzet, Rolland, Dullinger, Stefan, Klonner, Guenther, van Kleunen, Mark, Essl, Franz, Bossdorf, Oliver, Haeuser, Emily, Talluto, Matthew V., Moser, Dietmar, Block, Svenja, Conti, Luisa, Dullinger, Iwona, Münkemüller, Tamara, Thuiller, Wilfried, and Umweltbundesamt
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,alien specie ,[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] ,alien species, biotic interactions, dynamic vegetation model, European Alps, mountain environments, ornamental species, propagule pressure ,DIVERSITY ,Introduced species ,alien species ,European Alp ,01 natural sciences ,DISTRIBUTION MODELS ,biotic interactions ,propagule pressure ,ornamental specie ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,General Environmental Science ,Introduced Specie ,Global and Planetary Change ,Travel ,Flora of the Alps ,CLIMATE-CHANGE ,Ecology ,mountain environments ,Altitude ,Vegetation ,Plants ,Geography ,VEGETATION STRUCTURE ,Human ,Climate Change ,Climate change ,010603 evolutionary biology ,Models, Biological ,ddc:570 ,LAND ABANDONMENT ,Environmental Chemistry ,Humans ,Ecosystem ,SWISS ALPS ,Computer Simulation ,Demography ,ALIEN PLANTS ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Propagule pressure ,dynamic vegetation model ,Plant ,15. Life on land ,biotic interaction ,mountain environment ,ornamental species ,SPECIES INVASIONS ,13. Climate action ,BIODIVERSITY ,Species richness ,European Alps ,Introduced Species - Abstract
International audience; Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.
- Published
- 2017
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