1. Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget
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Naveen Chandra, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Peter A. Raymond, Jurek Müller, Ann R. Stavert, Joe R. Melton, Marielle Saunois, Phillipe Bousquet, Adrian Gustafson, Yosuke Niwa, Robert B. Jackson, Shushi Peng, Qianlai Zhuang, Hanqin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, George H. Allen, Benjamin Poulter, Joe McNorton, Bo Zheng, Yi Yin, Prabir K. Patra, Thomas Kleinen, Pierre Regnier, Peter Bergamaschi, Ronny Lauerwald, Shamil Maksyutov, Misa Ishizawa, Arjo Segers, William J. Riley, Josep G. Canadell, Zhen Zhang, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), This paper is the result of a collaborative international effort under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project, a Global Research Project of Future Earth and a research partner of the World Climate Research Programme. We acknowledge primary support for the methane budget from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation through Grant GBMF5439 'Advancing Understanding of the Global Methane Cycle' to Stanford University (P.I. Rob Jackson, co- P.I.s Philippe Bousquet, Marielle Saunois, Josep Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, and Ben Poulter). Josep Canadell acknowledges the support of the Australian National Environmental Science Program – Earth Systems and Climate Change. Prabir K Patra and Neveen Chandra acknowledge support from Environment Research and Technology Development Funds of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan (JPMEERF20182002, JPMEERF20172001). Jurek Müller thanks for support by the Swiss National Science Foundation (#200020_172476). Peter Bergamaschi acknowledges the support of ECMWF providing computing resources under the special project 'Improve European and global CH4 and N2O flux inversions (2018-2020)'. Pierre Regnier acknowledges the support from the VERIFY project under European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program grant agree-ment no. 776810. The TM5-CAMS inversions are available from https://atmos phere.copernicus.eu, Arjo Segers acknowledges the support from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on be-half of the European Commission (grant no. CAMS73). William Riley acknowledges support by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program through the RUBISCO Scientific Focus Area under contract DE-AC02- 05CH11231 to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The authors gratefully acknowledge those re-sponsible for the global network of atmospheric observations used in this study including Donald R Blake and Isobel Simpson, University of California Irvine, USA, Gordon Brailsford, NIWA, Cyril Crevosier, LMD, France, New Zealand, Paul Krummel and Ray Langenfelds, CSIRO, Australia, Toshinobu Machida, Yasunori Tohjima and Yukio Yoshida, NIES, Japan, Ronald Prinn, MIT, USA, Simon O’Doherty, University of Bristol, UK, Michel Ramonet, LSCE-IPSL, France, Atsushi Takizawa, JMA, Japan, Ray Weiss, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, USA and Doug Worthy, Environment Canada, Canada. We would also like to thank Lena Höglund-Isaksson, IIASA, Austria, Greet Janssens- Maenhout EC-JRC, Italy and Steven Smith, PNNL-JGCR, USA for their assistance with the anthropogenic inventory data. The authors also acknowledge the significant contribution of Goulven G. Laruelle, Department Geoscience, Environment & Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium who, with P. Regnier, developed the re-gionally distributed estuarine flux data set., and European Project: 776810,H2020,H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB,VERIFY(2018)
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China ,Municipal solid waste ,Livestock ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,methane emissions ,Oceans and Seas ,010501 environmental sciences ,7. Clean energy ,01 natural sciences ,Methane ,12. Responsible consumption ,bottom-up ,Atmosphere ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,Enteric fermentation ,Environmental protection ,source sectors ,Environmental Chemistry ,Animals ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science ,[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,Global and Planetary Change ,regional ,Ecology ,business.industry ,Coal mining ,Biological Sciences ,Climate Action ,natural emissions ,Carbon project ,chemistry ,13. Climate action ,Greenhouse gas ,top-down ,Environmental science ,anthropogenic emissions ,business ,Environmental Sciences - Abstract
The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000-2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions-China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil-account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2008-2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.
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