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This paper reports on the total distribution of spring migration timing of willow warbler, chiffchaff and pied flycatcher at locations in the UK, Germany, Russia and Finland. This is the first time that high-quality data based on known-effort monitoring has been examined on a continental scale. First arrival dates, commonly reported in the literature, were positively correlated with mean arrival dates although they would not make good predictors of the latter. At all locations, at least one aspect of the arrival distribution of each species had got significantly earlier in recent years. The trend towards earliness was associated with warmer local temperatures and more positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation index. In years that were early, the arrival distribution became more elongated and skewed. Researchers should now investigate the consequences of earlier arrival on current and future bird populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics– by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques– which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model– improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil CO2 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)=−251±197 g C m−2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of−419±29 g C m−2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5 g C m−2 day−1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g C m−2 day−1, and only exceeded 0.5 g C m−2 day−1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis– which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data– improves the analysis of NEE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When planning sampling in an experiment where soil organic carbon (SOC) content is expected to change, it is necessary to know how many samples will need to be taken to demonstrate a change in Soc and after how long this change will be detectable. Much has been published on the number of samples required to demonstrate the minimum detectable difference in SOC. but less on how long it takes for this change to be detectable. In this paper, a model of SOC dynamics is used to estimate the minimum time taken for a change in total SOC content to become measurable under different carbon inputs, land uses and soil types. For free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE), and other experiments in which SOC is expected to increase, relationships between the percentage change in C inputs and the time taken to measure a change in SOC are presented, for two levels of sampling intensity corresponding to the maximum that is practically possible in most experiments (∼100 samples) and that used regularly in field experiments (10-20 samples). In FACE experiments, where C inputs increase by a maximum of about 20-25%, SOC change could be detected with 90% confidence after about 6-10 years if a sampling regime allowing 3% change in background SOC level (probably requiring a very large number of samples) were used, but could not be detected at all if a sampling regime were used that allowed only a 15% change in background SOC to be detected. If increases in C inputs are much below 15%, it might not be possible to detect a change in soil C without an enormous number of samples. Relationships between the change in C inputs and the time taken to measure a change in SOC are robust over a range of soil types and land uses. The results demonstrate how models of SOC dynamics can be used to complement statistical power analyses for planning when, and how intensively, to sample soils during experiments. An advantage of the modelling approach demonstrated here is that estimates of the minimum time taken for a change in soil carbon to become detectable can be made, even before any detailed soil samples are taken, simply from estimates of the likely increase in carbon inputs to the soil (via expected changes in net primary production). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in atmospheric composition affect plant quality and herbivore performance. We used the Aspen Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) facility to investigate the impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) on the performance of the aphid Cepegillettea betulaefoliae Granovsky feeding on paper birch ( Betula papyrifera Marsh.). In Year 1, we simultaneously measured individual performance and population growth rates, and in Year 2 we surveyed natural aphid, predator and parasitoid populations throughout the growing season. Aphid growth and development (relative growth rate (RGR), development time, adult weight, embryo number and the birth weight of newborn nymphs) were unaffected by CO2 and O3. Aphid fecundity decreased on trees grown at elevated CO2, O3 and CO2+O3. Neither nymphal performance nor adult size were reliable indicators of future fecundity at elevated CO2 and/or O3. Aphid populations protected from natural enemies were unaffected by elevated CO2, but increased significantly at elevated O3. Individual fecundity in elevated CO2 and O3 atmospheres did not predict population growth rates, probably because of changes in the strength of intraspecific competition or the ability of the aphids to induce nutrient sinks. Natural aphid, predator and parasitoids populations (Year 2) showed few significant responses to CO2 and O3, although CO2 and O3 did affect the timing of aphid and natural enemy peak abundance. Elevated CO2 and O3 affected aphid and natural enemy populations independently: no CO2× O3 interactions were observed. We conclude that: (1) aphid individual performance did not predict population responses to CO2 and O3 and (2) elevated CO2 and O3 atmospheres are unlikely to affect C. betulaefoliae populations in the presence of natural enemy communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in atmospheric composition affect plant quality and herbivore performance. We used the Aspen Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) facility to investigate the impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) on the performance of the aphid Cepegillettea betulaefoliae Granovsky feeding on paper birch ( Betula papyrifera Marsh.). In Year 1, we simultaneously measured individual performance and population growth rates, and in Year 2 we surveyed natural aphid, predator and parasitoid populations throughout the growing season. Aphid growth and development (relative growth rate (RGR), development time, adult weight, embryo number and the birth weight of newborn nymphs) were unaffected by CO2 and O3. Aphid fecundity decreased on trees grown at elevated CO2, O3 and CO2+O3. Neither nymphal performance nor adult size were reliable indicators of future fecundity at elevated CO2 and/or O3. Aphid populations protected from natural enemies were unaffected by elevated CO2, but increased significantly at elevated O3. Individual fecundity in elevated CO2 and O3 atmospheres did not predict population growth rates, probably because of changes in the strength of intraspecific competition or the ability of the aphids to induce nutrient sinks. Natural aphid, predator and parasitoids populations (Year 2) showed few significant responses to CO2 and O3, although CO2 and O3 did affect the timing of aphid and natural enemy peak abundance. Elevated CO2 and O3 affected aphid and natural enemy populations independently: no CO2× O3 interactions were observed. We conclude that: (1) aphid individual performance did not predict population responses to CO2 and O3 and (2) elevated CO2 and O3 atmospheres are unlikely to affect C. betulaefoliae populations in the presence of natural enemy communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies using both field measurements and satellite-derived-vegetation indices have demonstrated that global warming is influencing vegetation growth and phenology. To accurately predict the future response of vegetation to climate variation, a thorough understanding of vegetation phenological cycles and their relationship to temperature and precipitation is required. In this paper, vegetation phenological transition dates identified using data from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001 are linked with MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data from the northern hemisphere between 35°N and 70°N. The results show well-defined patterns dependent on latitude, in which vegetation greenup gradually migrates northward starting in March, and dormancy spreads southward from late September. Among natural vegetation land-cover types, the growing-season length for forests is strongly correlated with variation in mean annual LST. For urban areas, the onset of greenup is 4–9 days earlier on average, and the onset of dormancy is about 2–16 days later, relative to adjacent natural vegetation. This difference (especially for urban vs. forests) is apparently related to urban heat island effects that result in both the average spring temperature and the mean annual temperature in urban areas being about 1–3°C higher relative to rural areas. The results also indicate that urban heat island effects on vegetation phenology are stronger in North America than in Europe and Asia. Finally, the onset of forest greenup at continental scales can be effectively described using a thermal time-chilling model, which can be used to infer the delay or advance of greenup onset in relation to climatic warming at global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biologists have been challenged to envisage the likely consequences of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and the suite of accompanying environmental changes (e.g. rising temperature, changing rainfall patterns, etc.) on our biotic systems. Research to date on plant responses has been extensive, but work on herbivore responses has been less complete, and work on higher trophic levels nearly nonexistent. One group of herbivores that has been reasonably well studied is aphids, and at least for this group, researchers have even begun to investigate responses at higher trophic levels, to include parasitoids. In this paper, we develop a mechanistic mathematical model of the general interaction between grasses, cereal aphids and their parasitoids. We used this model to investigate the interacting effects of rising CO2 and temperature. The model suggests that, while parasitoids do have an impact on the aphid colony population dynamics, they do not fundamentally alter the aphid response to climate change. The model predicts that for both aphids and their parasitoids, the population responses to combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature will be more similar to current ambient conditions than we might expect from the individual effects of CO2 or temperature increases. This interaction has important consequences for the interpretation of results from experiments that study only the effect of rising CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a Multilayered Integrated Numerical Model of Surface Physics – Growing Plants Interaction (MINoSGI), which represents interactions between the dynamics of forest ecosystems and microclimate. Aiming at a large-scale study in the future, we describe forest dynamics by using area-averaged prognostic equations for thedistributions of plant density and plant weight with respect to plant height classes, instead of individual-based treatments for small-scale forest patches. Growth and mortality of plants are modelled based on the carbon balance of each plant height class. The area-averaged microclimate (e.g., light, wind speed, temperature, humidity, CO2 concentration) within the forest canopy is simulated by a one-dimensional multilayer canopy model, which includes most of the physical and physiological processes that control the forest microclimate. Owing to its multilayered framework, a direct specification is possible for the difference in the growing environment among plants of different size and species. Given hourly meteorological conditions, the model outputs energy, water, CO2 and momentum fluxes to and from a forest, of which the structure changes through competition among plants. The model's performance was tested by comparing its outputs with observed data on the development of plant size distribution taken over a 5-year period in an evergreen coniferous ( Cryptomeria japonica) forest. The model produced realistic estimates of the total biomass increments during the period. The ratio of net primary production to gross primary production (=0.45) was consistent with previous estimates for temperate forests. The bimodal seasonal pattern in net ecosystem production was similar to the seasonal trend in the CO2 flux measured over a forest of the same species. Although some limitations due to the one-dimensional representation of microclimate were noticeable, the model adequately simulated distributions of annual growth rate, plant weight and diameter across plant height classes. Since the basic equations can be extended to include the effect of spatial variability with marginal increase of computational costs, the present model framework is feasible for large-scale studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Selective logging is a dominant form of land use in the Amazon basin and throughout the humid tropics, yet little is known about the spatial variability of forest canopy gap formation and closure following timber harvests. We established chronosequences of large-area (14–158 ha) selective logging sites spanning a 3.5-year period of forest regeneration and two distinct harvest methods: conventional logging (CL) and reduced-impact logging (RIL). Our goals were to: (1) determine the spatial characteristics of canopy gap fraction immediately following selective logging in the eastern Amazon; (2) determine the degree and rate of canopy closure in early years following harvest among the major landscape features associated with logging – tree falls, roads, skid trails and log decks; and (3) quantify spatial and temporal differences in canopy opening and closure in high- and low-damage harvests (CL vs. RIL). Across a wide range of harvest intensities (2.6–6.4 felled trees ha−1), the majority of ground damage occurred as skid trails (4–12%), whereas log decks and roads were only a small contributor to the total ground damage (<2%). Despite similar timber harvest intensities, CL resulted in more ground damage than RIL. Neither the number of log decks nor their individual or total area was correlated with the number of trees removed or intensity of tree harvesting (trees ha−1). The area of skids was well correlated with the ground area damaged (m2) per tree felled. In recently logged forest (0.5 years postharvest), gap fractions were highest in log decks (mean RIL=0.83, CL=0.99) and lowest in tree-fall areas (RIL: 0.26, CL: 0.41). However, the small surface area of log decks made their contribution to the total area-integrated forest gap fraction minor. In contrast, tree falls accounted for more than two-thirds of the area disturbed, but the canopy gaps associated with felled trees were much smaller than for log decks, roads and skids. Canopy openings decreased in size with distance from each felled tree crown. At 0.5 years postharvest, the area initially affected by the felling of each tree was approximately 100 m in radius for CL and 50 m for RIL. Initial decreases in gap fraction during the first 1.5 years of regrowth diminished in subsequent years. Throughout the 3.5-year period of forest recovery, tree-fall gap fractions remained higher in CL than in RIL treatments, but canopy gap closure rates were higher in CL than in RIL areas. During the observed recovery period, the canopy gap area affected by harvesting decreased in radius around each felled tree from 100 to 40 m in CL, and from 50 to 10 m in RIL. The results suggest that the full spatial and temporal dynamics of canopy gap fraction must be understood and monitored to predict the effects of selective logging on regional energy balance and climate regimes, biogeochemical processes including carbon cycling, and plant and faunal population dynamics. This paper also shows that remote sensing of log decks alone will not provide an accurate assessment of total forest area impacted by selective logging, nor will it be closely correlated to damage levels and canopy gap closure rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling and land-cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land-Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (nonflooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970 to 1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of ∼0.35 PgC yr−1 (1 PgC= 1 × 1015 gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of ∼7 PgC from 1970 to 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study ( ) by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989–1998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared with the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by∼1 PgC from 1970 to 1998, while different assumptions about land-cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over 50 scientists from eight different countries coordinated research efforts in the Kalahari sand mass in Zambia and Botswana during the 2000 wet season as a part of the Southern African Regional Science Initiative – Kalahari Transect Wet Season Campaign (S2K-KT Wet Season Campaign). The work focused on change in ecological processes along the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme-designated Kalahari Transect (KT). Topics included ecosystem structure, function, biogeochemistry, and modeling at the patch, landscape and regional scale. The KT of southern and central Africa follows a sharp precipitation gradient within an otherwise climatically and geographically similar region that contains a widely distributed, physically uniform soil and relatively little variation in elevation. This paper outlines the focus of the SAFARI 2000 research campaign as it relates to this study area and provides references to archived data sets generated during the study. It also describes vegetation patterns, climate, and 2000 wet season meteorological conditions for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much research on the effects of elevated CO2 on forest trees has focused on quantitative changes in photosynthesis, secondary chemistry, and plant biomass. However, plant fitness responses to rising CO2 should also include quantitative measures of reproduction, since most forest systems are recruitment limited. Until now, it has proved very difficult to grow forest trees to sexual maturity in a CO2-enriched environment. This paper is the first of its kind to address the effects of elevated CO2 on the reproduction of hardwood trees in a natural forest. Beginning in 1996, scrub-oak vegetation, predominantly three species of scrub-oaks, Quercus myrtifolia, Q. chapmanii, and Q. geminata, were grown inside eight chambers with elevated CO2 (704 parts per million (ppm)) and eight with ambient CO2 (379 ppm) at Kennedy Space Center, Florida. In elevated CO2, acorn production increased significantly for the dominant species Q. myrtifolia and for Q. chapmanii, but it did not increase for the subdominant, Q. geminata. Acorn weight, germination rate, and predation by weevils were unaffected by CO2. Thus, recruitment of some forest tree species into the Florida scrub-oak community is likely to be accelerated in an atmosphere of increased CO2. However, because the acceleration of recruitment differs among species, over the long term, Q. myrtifolia and Q. chapmanii will be favored over Q. geminata and this is likely to change patterns of species diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification of changes in observational data relating to the climate change hypothesis remains a topic of paramount importance. In particular, scientifically sound and rigorous methods for detecting changes are urgently needed. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to nonparametric function estimation. The method is applied to blossom time series of Prunus avium L., Galanthus nivalis L. and Tilia platyphyllos SCOP. The functional behavior of these series is represented by three different models: the constant model, the linear model and the one change point model. The one change point model turns out to be the preferred one in all three data sets with considerable discrimination of the other alternatives. In addition to the functional behavior, rates of change in terms of days per year were also calculated. We obtain also uncertainty margins for both function estimates and rates of change. Our results provide a quantitative representation of what was previously inferred from the same data by less involved methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experimental evidence regarding the responses of cereal aphids to rising atmospheric CO2 has been ambiguous. Some studies suggest increased population sizes under future CO2 levels, others suggest decreased population sizes, and still others suggest little or no difference. Recently, constructed a general mathematical model of the aphid–grass interaction to investigate whether or not we should, in fact, expect a general aphid response to rising CO2. They concluded that aphid populations are likely to be larger under future CO2 concentrations if soil N levels are high, the aphid species' nitrogen requirement is low and the aphid species' density-dependent response in winged morph production is weak. In that model, and in field experiments, CO2 concentration influences aphid population dynamics through the effect it has on plant quality. However, future CO2 concentrations are also likely to be accompanied by higher ambient temperatures, a combination that has received little focus to date. In the present paper, the Newman et al. model is used to consider the combined effects of increased CO2 concentrations and temperature on aphid population sizes. It is concluded that, when both factors are elevated, aphid population dynamics will be more similar to current ambient conditions than expected from the results of experiments studying either factor alone. This result has important implications for future experimentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon (C) storage and sequestration in agricultural soils is considered to be an important issue in the study of terrestrial C cycling and global climatic change. The baseline C stock and the C sequestration potential are among the criteria for a region or a state to adopt strategies or policies in response to commitment to the Kyoto Protocol. Paddy soils represent a large portion of global cropland. However, little information on the potential of C sequestration and storage is available for such soils. In this paper, an estimation of the topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) pool and the sequestration potential of paddy soils in China was made by using the data from the 2nd State Soil Survey carried out during 1979–1982 and from the nationwide arable soil monitoring system established since then. Results showed that the SOC density ranged from 12 to 226 t C ha−1 with an area-weighted mean density of 44 t C ha−1, which is comparable to that of the US grasslands and is higher than that of the cultivated dryland soils in China and the US. The estimated total topsoil SOC pool is 1.3 Pg, with 0.85 Pg from the upper plow layer and 0.45 Pg from the plowpan layer. This pool size is ∼2% of China's total storage in the top 1 m of the soil profiles and ∼4% of the total topsoil pool, while the area percentage of paddy soil is 3.4% of the total land. The C pool in paddy soils was found predominantly in southeast China geographically and in the subgroups of Fe-accumulating and Fe-leaching paddy soils pedogenetically. In comparison with dryland cultivation, irrigation-based rice cultivation in China has induced significant enrichment of SOC storage (0.3 Pg) in paddy soils. The induced total C sequestration equals half of China's total annual CO2 emission in the 1990s. Estimates using different SOC sequestration scenarios show that the paddy soils of China have an easily attainable SOC sequestration potential of 0.7 Pg under present conditions and may ultimately sequester 3.0 Pg. Soil monitoring data showed that the current C sequestration rate is 12 Tg yr−1. The total C sequestration potential and the current sequestration rate of the paddy soils are over 30%, while the area of the paddy soils is 26% that of China's total croplands. Therefore, practicing sustainable agriculture is urgently needed for enhancing SOC storage to realize the ultimate SOC sequestration of rice-based agriculture of China, as the current C sequestration rate is significantly lower than the potential rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show here that CO2 partial pressure ( pCO2) and temperature significantly interact on coral physiology. The effects of increased pCO2 and temperature on photosynthesis, respiration and calcification rates were investigated in the scleractinian coral Stylophora pistillata. Cuttings were exposed to temperatures of 25°C or 28°C and to pCO2 values of ca. 460 or 760 μatm for 5 weeks. The contents of chlorophyll c2 and protein remained constant throughout the experiment, while the chlorophyll a content was significantly affected by temperature, and was higher under the ‘high-temperature–high- pCO2’ condition. The cell-specific density was higher at ‘high pCO2’ than at ‘normal pCO2’ (1.7 vs. 1.4). The net photosynthesis normalized per unit protein was affected by both temperature and pCO2, whereas respiration was not affected by the treatments. Calcification decreased by 50% when temperature and pCO2 were both elevated. Calcification under normal temperature did not change in response to an increased pCO2. This is not in agreement with numerous published papers that describe a negative relationship between marine calcification and CO2. The confounding effect of temperature has the potential to explain a large portion of the variability of the relationship between calcification and pCO2 reported in the literature, and warrants a re-evaluation of the projected decrease of marine calcification by the year 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in vegetation structure and biogeography due to climate change feedback to alter climate by changing fluxes of energy, moisture, and momentum between land and atmosphere. While the current class of land process models used with climate models parameterizes these fluxes in detail, these models prescribe surface vegetation and leaf area from data sets. In this paper, we describe an approach in which ecological concepts from a global vegetation dynamics model are added to the land component of a climate model to grow plants interactively. The vegetation dynamics model is the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model. The land model is the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Land Surface Model (LSM). Vegetation is defined in terms of plant functional types. Each plant functional type is represented by an individual plant with the average biomass, crown area, height, and stem diameter (trees only) of its population, by the number of individuals in the population, and by the fractional cover in the grid cell. Three time-scales (minutes, days, and years) govern the processes. Energy fluxes, the hydrologic cycle, and carbon assimilation, core processes in LSM, occur at a 20 min time step. Instantaneous net assimilated carbon is accumulated annually to update vegetation once a year. This is carried out with the addition of establishment, resource competition, growth, mortality, and fire parameterizations from LPJ. The leaf area index is updated daily based on prevailing environmental conditions, but the maximum value depends on the annual vegetation dynamics. The coupling approach is successful. The model simulates global biogeography, net primary production, and dynamics of tundra, boreal forest, northern hardwood forest, tropical rainforest, and savanna ecosystems, which are consistent with observations. This suggests that the model can be used with a climate model to study biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system related to vegetation dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper, based on a literature review, presents a quantitative overview of the role of natural disturbances in European forests from 1850 to 2000. Such an overview provides a basis for modelling the possible impacts of climate change and enables one to assess trends in disturbance regimes in different countries and/or periods. Over the period 1950–2000, an annual average of 35 million m3 wood was damaged by disturbances; there was much variation between years. Storms were responsible for 53% of the total damage, fire for 16%, snow for 3% and other abiotic causes for 5%. Biotic factors caused 16% of the damage, and half of this was caused by bark beetles. For 7% of the damage, no cause was given or there was a combination of causes. The 35 million m3 of damage is about 8.1% of the total fellings in Europe and about 0.15% of the total volume of growing stock. Over the period 1961–2000, the average annual area of forest fires was 213 000 ha, which is 0.15% of the total forest area in Europe. Most types of damage seem to be increasing. This is partly an artefact of the improved availability of information. The most likely explanations for an increase in damage from disturbances are changes in forest management and resulting changes in the condition of the forest. Forest area, average volume of growing stock and average stand age have increased considerably, making the forest more vulnerable and increasing the resources that can be damaged. Since forest resources are expected to continue to increase, it is likely that damage from disturbances will also increase in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we describe measurements and modeling of 18O in CO2 and H2O pools and fluxes at a tallgrass prairie site in Oklahoma. We present measurements of the δ18O value of leaf water, depth-resolved soil water, atmospheric water vapor, and Keeling plot δ18O intercepts for net soil-surface CO2 and ecosystem CO2 and H2O fluxes during three periods of the 2000 growing season. Daytime discrimination against C18OO, as calculated from measured above-canopy CO2 and δ18O gradients, is also presented. To interpret the isotope measurements, we applied an integrated land-surface and isotope model (ISOLSM) that simulates ecosystem H218O and C18OO stocks and fluxes. ISOLSM accurately predicted the measured isotopic composition of ecosystem water pools and the δ18O value of net ecosystem CO2 and H2O fluxes. Simulations indicate that incomplete equilibration between CO2 and H2O within C4 plant leaves can have a substantial impact on ecosystem discrimination. Diurnal variations in the δ18O value of above-canopy vapor had a small impact on the predicted δ18O value of ecosystem water pools, although sustained differences had a large impact. Diurnal variations in the δ18O value of above-canopy CO2 substantially affected the predicted ecosystem discrimination. Leaves dominate the ecosystem 18O-isoflux in CO2 during the growing season, while the soil contribution is relatively small and less variable. However, interpreting daytime measurements of ecosystem C18OO fluxes requires accurate predictions of both soil and leaf 18O-isofluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Ecosystem fluxes of energy, water, and CO[sub 2] result in spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric properties. In principle, these variations can be used to quantify the fluxes through inverse modelling of atmospheric transport, and can improve the understanding of processes and falsifiability of models. We investigated the influence of ecosystem fluxes on atmospheric CO[sub 2] in the vicinity of the WLEF-TV tower in Wisconsin using an ecophysiological model (Simple Biosphere, SiB2) coupled to an atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System). Model parameters were specified from satellite imagery and soil texture data. In a companion paper, simulated fluxes in the immediate tower vicinity have been compared to eddy covariance fluxes measured at the tower, with meteorology specified from tower sensors. Results were encouraging with respect to the ability of the model to capture observed diurnal cycles of fluxes. Here, the effects of fluxes in the tower footprint were also investigated by coupling SiB2 to a high-resolution atmospheric simulation, so that the model physiology could affect the meteorological environment. These experiments were successful in reproducing observed fluxes and concentration gradients during the day and at night, but revealed problems during transitions at sunrise and sunset that appear to be related to the canopy radiation parameterization in SiB2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Increased reactive atmospheric N deposition has been implicated in floristic changes in species-rich acidic and calcareous grasslands, but the fate of this pollutant N in these ecosystems is unknown. This paper reports the first analysis of N budgets and N fluxes for two grasslands in the White Peak area of Derbyshire, one of the most heavily N-polluted locations in the UK. N fluxes were monitored in lysimeter cores (retaining the original turfs) taken from field plots of unimproved acidic and calcareous grasslands that had received (in addition to ambient N deposition) simulated enhanced N deposition treatments of 3.5 and 14 g N m[sup -2] yr[sup -1] for 6 years. The influence of reducing phosphorus limitation was assessed by factorial additions of P. Seasonal leached losses of nitrate, ammonia and organic N were monitored in detail along with estimates of N removal through simulated grazing and gaseous losses through denitrification and volatilization. The rates of N fluxes by these pathways were used to create N budgets for the grasslands. Both grasslands were found to be accumulating much of the simulated additional N deposition: up to 89% accumulated in the calcareous grassland and up to 38% accumulated in the acidic grassland. The major fluxes of N loss from these grasslands were by simulated grazing and leaching of soluble organic N (constituting 90% of leached N under ambient conditions). Leached inorganic N (mainly nitrate) contributed significantly to the output flux of N under the highest N treatment only. Loss of N through ammonia volatilization accounted for less than 6% of the N added as simulated deposition, while denitrification contributed significantly to output fluxes only in the acidic grassland during winter. The implications of the results for ecosystem N balances and the likely consequences of N accumulation on these grasslands are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper investigates how vascular plants affect carbon flow and the formation and emission of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4 ) in an arctic wet tundra ecosystem in NE Greenland. We present a field experiment where we studied, in particular, how species-specific root exudation patterns affect the availability of acetate, a hypothesized precursor of CH4 formation. We found significantly higher acetate formation rates in the root vicinity of Eriophorum scheuchzeri compared with another dominating sedge in the wetland, i.e. Dupontia psilosantha . Furthermore a shading treatment, which reduced net photosynthesis, resulted in significantly decreased formation rates of acetate. We also found that the potential CH4 production of the peat profile was highly positively correlated to the concentration of acetate at the respective depths, whereas it was negatively correlated to the concentration of total dissolved organic carbon. This suggests that acetate is a substrate of importance to the methanogens in the studied ecosystem and that acetate concentration in this case can serve as a predictor of substrate quality. To further investigate the importance of acetate as a predecessor to CH4 , we brought an intact peat-plant monolith system collected at the field site in NE Greenland to the laboratory, sealed it hermetically and studied the decomposition of 14 C-labelled acetate injected at the depth of methanogenic activity. After 4 h, 14 CH4 emission from the monolith could be observed. In conclusion, allocation of recently fixed carbon to the roots of certain species of vascular plants affects substrate quality and influence CH4 formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper examines uncertainties in the interpretation of isotope signals when estimating fine root longevity, particularly in forests. The isotope signals are depleted δ13 C values from elevated CO2 experiments and enriched Δ14 C values from bomb 14 C in atmospheric CO2 . For the CO2 experiments, I explored the effects of six root mortality patterns (on–off, proportional, constant, normal, left skew, and right skew distributions), five levels of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves, and increased root growth on root δ13 C values after CO2 fumigation. My analysis indicates that fitting a linear equation to δ13 C data provides unbiased estimates of longevity only if root mortality follows an on–off model, without dilution of isotope signals by pretreatment NSC reserves, and under a steady state between growth and death. If root mortality follows the other patterns, the linear extrapolation considerably overestimates root longevity. In contrast, fitting an exponential equation to δ13 C data underestimates longevity with all the mortality patterns except the proportional one. With either linear or exponential extrapolation, dilution of isotope signals by pretreatment NSC reserves could result in overestimation of root longevity by several-fold. Root longevity is underestimated if elevated CO2 stimulates fine root growth. For the bomb 14 C approach, I examined the effects of four mortality patterns (on–off, proportional, constant, and normal distribution) on root Δ14 C values. For a given Δ14 C value, the proportional pattern usually provides a shorter estimate of root longevity than the other patterns. Overall, we have to improve our understanding of root growth and mortality patterns and to measure NSC reserves in order to reduce uncertainties... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The current emphasis on global climate studies has led the scientific community to set up a number of sites for measuring long-term biospheric fluxes, and to develop a wide range of biosphere–atmosphere exchange models. This paper presents a new model of this type, which has been developed for a pine forest canopy. In most coniferous species the canopy layer is well separated from the understorey and several cohorts of needles coexist. It was therefore found necessary to distinguish several vegetation layers and, in each layer, several leaf classes defined not only by their light regime and wetness status but also by their age. This model, named MuSICA , is a multilayer, multileaf process-based model. Each submodel is first independently parameterized using data collected at a EUROFLUX site near Bordeaux (Southwestern France). Particular care is brought to identify the seasonal variations in the various physiological parameters. The full model is then evaluated using a two-year long data set, split up into 12 day-type classes defined by the season, the weather type and the soil water status. Beyond the good overall agreement obtained between measured and modelled values at various time scales, several points of further improvement are identified. They concern the seasonal variations in the stomatal response of needles and the soil/litter respiration, as well as their interaction with soil or litter moisture. A sensitivity analysis to some of the model features (in-canopy turbulent transfer scheme, leaf age classes, water retention, distinction between shaded and sunlit leaves, number of layers) is finally performed in order to evaluate whether significant simplifications can be brought to such a model with little loss in its predictive quality. The distinction between several leaf classes is crucial if one is to compute biospheric fluxes accurately. It is also evidenced that accounting for in-canopy turbulent transfer leads to better estimates of... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Recently flux tower data have become available for a variety of ecosystems under different climatic and edaphic conditions. Although Flux tower data represent point measurements with a footprint of typically 1 km × 1 km they can be used to validate models and to spatialize biospheric fluxes at regional and continental scales. In this paper we present a study where biospheric flux data collected in the EUROFLUX project were used to train a neural network simulator to provide spatial (1 km × 1 km) and temporal (weekly) estimates of carbon fluxes of European forests at continental scale. The novelty of the approach is that flux data were used to constrain and parameterize the neural network structure using a limited number of input driving variables. The overall European carbon uptake from this analysis was 0.47 Gt C yr-1 with distinctive differences between boreal and temperate regions. The length of the growing season is longer in the south of Europe (about 32 weeks), compared with north and central Europe, which have a similar length-growing season (about 27 weeks). A peak in respiration was depicted in spring at continental scale as a coherent signal which parallel the construction respiration increase at the onset of the season as usually shown by leaf level measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Rice cultivation areas in East, Southeast and South Asia account for 89% of the world total, and field measurements of methane (CH4 ) emission from rice cultivation have been widely performed in this area. In this paper, we assembled most of the measurements and developed region-specific CH4 emission factors. Efforts were made in order to regionalize rice fields by climate and soil properties, and to incorporate the effect of organic input and water regime on emission. Data on rice cultivation areas of 1995 were collected at subdivision level (province, state, prefecture, etc.). Total emission from these areas was estimated at 25.1 Tg CH4 year- 1 , of which 7.67 Tg was emitted from China and 5.88 Tg from India. Irrigated and rainfed rice fields contributed 70.4 and 27.5% to the total emission, respectively. Deepwater rice fields had a very small share. A high-resolution and quality emission distribution map was constructed as the emission was directly estimated at province level and below that, a 30-second land-use dataset was used in order to translate the emission to grid format. As the rice cultivation area in the study region accounts for 89% of the world total, extrapolating the estimate to the global scale indicates a global emission of 28.2 Tg CH4 year- 1 . The estimate was compared with country reports made by local scientists. For some countries – such as Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines – the results of this estimate agree reasonably well with their country reports (CV < 15%). For some other countries – such as China, India and Bangladesh – there is relatively large disagreement between our estimate and their country reports. The reasons for the discrepancies were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Vegetation dynamics plays a critical role in causing the decadal variability of precipitation over the Sahel region of West Africa. However, the potential impact of changes in CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics and precipitation variability of this region has not been addressed by previous studies. In this paper, we explore the role of CO2 concentration in the regional climate system of West Africa using a zonally symmetric, synchronously coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. We first document the response of precipitation and vegetation to incremental changes of CO2 concentration; the impact of CO2 concentration on the variability of the regional biosphere-atmosphere system is then addressed using the second half of the twentieth century as an example. An increase of CO2 concentration causes the regional biosphere-atmosphere system to become wetter and greener, with the radiative effect of CO2 and improved plant-water relation dominant in the Sahelian grassland region and the direct enhancement of leaf carbon assimilation dominant in the tree-covered region to the south. Driven by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the period 1950–97 and with CO2 concentration prescribed at a pre-industrial level 300ppmv, the model simulates a persistent Sahel drought during the period of 1960s-1990s. The simulated drought takes place in the form of a transition of the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system from a wet/green regime in the 1950s to a dry/barren regime after the 1960s. This climate transition is triggered by SST forcing and materialized through vegetation-climate interactions. The same SST forcing does not produce such a persistent drought when a constant modern CO2 concentration of 350ppmv is specified, indicating that the biosphere-atmosphere system at higher CO2 level is more resilient to... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) and N deposition experiments on four ombrotrophic bogs in Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Switzerland, revealed that after three years of treatment: (1) elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration had no significant effect on the biomass growth of Sphagnum and vascular species; and (2) increased N deposition reduced Sphagnum growth, because it increased the cover of vascular plants and the tall moss Polytrichum strictum , while vascular plant biomass growth was not affected. This paper focuses on water chemistry, plant nutrient content, and litter decomposition rates. Potassium limitation, or low supply of K and P, may have prevented a significant increase of Sphagnum growth under elevated CO2 and N deposition. Vascular plant growth under elevated CO2 and N deposition was also limited by K, or by K in combination with P or N (N in CO2 experiment). Elevated CO2 and N deposition had no effect on decomposition rates of Sphagnum and vascular plant litter. Aside from a possible effect of N deposition on light competition between species, we expect that elevated atmospheric CO2 and N deposition concentrations will not affect Sphagnum and vascular plant growth in bogs of north-west Europe due to K-, or K in combination with N- or P-, limited growth. For the same reason we expect no effect of elevated CO2 and N deposition on litter decomposition. Net primary production of raised ombrotrophic bogs that are at or close to steady state, is regulated by input of nutrients through atmospheric deposition. Therefore, we hypothesize that the expected increase of plant growth under elevated CO2 and N deposition is diminished by current levels of K (and to some extent P and N) in atmospheric deposition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Natural peatlands accumulate carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). They affect the global climate by binding carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and releasing methane (CH4 ) to the atmosphere; in contrast fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2 O) in natural peatlands are insignificant. Changes in drainage associated with forestry alter these greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and thus the radiative forcing (RF) of peatlands. In this paper, changes in peat and tree stand C stores, GHG fluxes and the consequent RF of Finnish undisturbed and forestry-drained peatlands are estimated for 1900–2100. The C store in peat is estimated at 5.5 Pg in 1950. The rate of C sequestration into peat has increased from 2.2 Tg a--1 in 1900, when all peatlands were undrained, to 3.6 Tg a--1 at present, when c . 60% of peatlands have been drained for forestry. The C store in tree stands has increased from 60 to 170 Tg during the 20th century. Methane emissions have decreased from an estimated 1.0–0.5 Tg CH4 --C a--1 , while those of N2 O have increased from 0.0003 to 0.005 Tg N2 O--N a--1 . The altered exchange rates of GHG gases since 1900 have decreased the RF of peatlands in Finland by about 3 mW m--2 from the predrainage situation. This result contradicts the common hypothesis that drainage results in increased C emissions and therefore increased RF of peatlands. The negative radiative forcing due to drainage is caused by increases in CO2 sequestration in peat (--0.5 mW m--2 ), tree stands and wood products (--0.8 mW m--2 ), decreases in CH4 emissions from peat to the atmosphere (--1.6 mW m--2 ), and only a small increase in N2 O emissions (+0.1 mW m--2 ). Although the calculations presented include many uncertainties, the above results are considered qualitatively reliable and may be expected to be... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In order to facilitate interpretation and comparison of warming effects on ecosystems across various habitats, it is imperative to quantify changes in microclimate induced by warming facilities. This paper reports observed changes in air temperature, soil temperature and soil-moisture content under experimental warming and clipping in a tallgrass prairie in the Great Plains, USA. We used a factorial design with warming as the primary factor nested with clipping as the secondary factor. Infrared heater was used in order to simulate climatic warming and clipping to mimic mowing for hay or grazing. The warming treatment significantly increased daily mean and minimum air temperatures by 1.1 and 2.3 °C, respectively, but had no effect on daily maximum air temperature, resulting in reduced diurnal air-temperature range. Infrared heaters substantially increased daily maximum (2.5 and 3.5 °C), mean (2.0 and 2.6 °C) and minimum (1.8 and 2.1 °C) soil temperatures in both the unclipped and clipped subplots. Clipping also significantly increased daily maximum (3.4 and 4.3 °C) and mean (0.6 and 1.2 °C) soil temperatures, but decreased daily minimum soil temperature (1.0 and 0.6 °C in the control and warmed plots, respectively). Daily maximum, mean and minimum soil temperatures in the clipped, warmed subplots were 6.8, 3.2 and 1.1 °C higher than those in the unclipped, control subplots. Infrared heaters caused a reduction of 11.0% in soil moisture in the clipped subplots, but not in the unclipped subplots. Clipping reduced soil-moisture content by 17.7 and 22.7% in the control and warmed plots, respectively. Experimental warming and clipping interacted to exacerbate soil-moisture loss (26.7%). Overall, infrared heaters simulated climate warming well by enhancing downward infrared radiation and by reducing the diurnal air-temperature range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractDecadal-scale climatic regimes and the shifts between them have important impacts on marine ecosystems. Climatic regime shifts have been observed or hypothesized in the North Pacific basin in 1976–77 and 1989. This paper examines long-term (1951–99) trends in calanoid copepod populations off southern California, and the evidence for responses to regime shifts. Most of the species of calanoid copepod that were analysed underwent one or more step changes during the 49 years covered by the study. All but one of these changes occurred in five periods: the late 1950s, late 1960s, mid-1970s, early 1980s and around 1990. The late 1960s changes are considered to be artifacts of an increase in sampling depth. Strong El Niño conditions affected California waters during the late 1950s and early 1980s. The step changes of the mid-1970s and late 1980s to early 1990s may have been responses to regime shifts or other climatic events. 28% of the species and subspecies responded to the 1976–77 event, all increasing in abundance. Another 28% of the copepod categories underwent step changes around 1990, most decreasing. Evidence for regime shifts in the hydrographic variables that were examined is mixed. The 10-m temperature increased in the mid-1970s. Abrupt changes in variables around 1990 were short-lived. However, the population responses around 1990 and to the El Niños of the late 1950s and early 1980s indicate that some species of calanoid copepods may respond on longer time scales to environmental conditions that persist only a few years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between vascular plant production and CH4 emissions from an arctic wet tundra ecosystem in north-east Greenland. Light intensity was manipulated by shading during three consecutive growing seasons (1998–2000). The shading treatment resulted in lower carbon cycling in the ecosystem as mean seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) decreased from -336 to -196 mg CO2 m-2 h-1 and from -476 to -212 mg CO2 m-2 h-1 in 1999 and 2000, respectively, and total ecosystem respiration decreased from 125 to 94 mg CO2 m-2 h-1 in 1999 and from 409 to 306 mg CO2 m-2 h-1 in 2000. Seasonal mean CH4 emissions in controls and shaded plots were, respectively, 6.5 and 4.5 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 in 1999 and 8.3 and 6.2 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 in 2000. We found that CH4 emission was sensitive to NEE and carbon turnover, and it is reasonable to assume that the correlation was due to a combined effect of vegetative CH4 transport and substrate quality coupled to vascular plant production. Total above-ground biomass was correlated to mean seasonal CH4 emission, but separation into species showed that plant-mediated CH4 transport was highly species dependent. Potential CH4 production peaked at the same depth as maximum root density (5–15 cm) and treatment differences further suggest that substrate quality was negatively affected by decreased NEE in the shaded plots. The concentration of dissolved CH4 decreased in the control plots as the growing season progressed while it was relatively stable in the shaded plots. This suggests that a progressively better developed root system in the controls increased the capacity to transport CH4 from the soil to the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a first approximation of net CO[sub 2] fluxes from mineral soil due to land use, land-use changes and forestry (LULUCF) activities in Brazil for the periods 1970-90 and 1975-95. The methodology employed is an adaptation of the approach proposed by the IPCC in 'Revised 1996 guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories', which is based on the variations in soil C stocks as a function of changes in land-use activities. The calculation was done separately for each Brazilian state and subsequently summarized for all of Brazil. The annual fluxes for Brazil indicate a net emission of CO[sub 2] to the atmosphere, which decreased from 93.3 Tg CO[sub 2] for the period 1970-90 to 46.4 Tg CO[sub 2] for the period 1975-95. This corresponded to yearly net emission rates of 11.0 g CO[sub 2] m[sup -2] year[sup -1] for the 1970-90 period and 5.5 g CO[sub 2] m[sup -2] year[sup -1] for the 1975-95 period. Within each administrative region, considerable differences in the yearly emission rates between the states could be observed. Several sources of uncertainties could be identified. The most important uncertainties were linked to the impact factor values, which represent changes in native C stock associated with conversion of the native vegetation to agricultural use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper presents an empirical model of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) developed for a subarctic fen near Churchill, Manitoba. The model with observed data helps explain the interannual variability in growing season NEE. Five years of tower-flux data are used to test and examine the seasonal behaviour of the model simulations. Processes controlling the observed interannual variability of CO2 exchange at the fen are examined by exploring the sensitivity of the model to changes in air temperature, precipitation and leaf area index. Results indicate that the sensitivity of NEE to changing environmental controls is complex and varies interannually depending on the initial conditions of the wetland. Changes in air temperature and the timing of precipitation events have a strong influence on NEE, which is largely manifest in gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP). Climate change scenarios indicate that warmer air temperatures will increase carbon acquisition during wet years but may act to reduce wetland carbon storage in years that experience a large water deficit early in the growing season. Model simulations for this subarctic sedge fen indicate that carbon acquisition is greatest during wet and warm conditions. This suggests therefore that carbon accumulation was greatest at this subarctic fen during its early developmental stages when hydroclimatic conditions were relatively wet and warm at approximately 2500 years before present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper presents CO2 flux data from 18 forest ecosystems, studied in the European Union funded EUROFLUX project. Overall, mean annual gross primary productivity (GPP, the total amount of carbon (C) fixed during photosynthesis) of these forests was 1380 ± 330 gC m-2 y-1 (mean ±SD). On average, 80% of GPP was respired by autotrophs and heterotrophs and released back into the atmosphere (total ecosystem respiration, TER = 1100 ± 260 gC m-2 y-1 ). Mean annual soil respiration (SR) was 760 ± 340 gC m-2 y-1 (55% of GPP and 69% of TER). Among the investigated forests, large differences were observed in annual SR and TER that were not correlated with mean annual temperature. However, a significant correlation was observed between annual SR and TER and GPP among the relatively undisturbed forests. On the assumption that (i) root respiration is constrained by the allocation of photosynthates to the roots, which is coupled to productivity, and that (ii) the largest fraction of heterotrophic soil respiration originates from decomposition of young organic matter (leaves, fine roots), whose availability also depends on primary productivity, it is hypothesized that differences in SR among forests are likely to depend more on productivity than on temperature. At sites where soil disturbance has occurred (e.g. ploughing, drainage), soil espiration was a larger component of the ecosystem C budget and deviated from the relationship between annual SR (and TER) and GPP observed among the less-disturbed forests. At one particular forest, carbon losses from the soil were so large, that in some years the site became a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Excluding the disturbed sites from the present analysis reduced mean SR to 660 ± 290 gC m-2 y-1 , representing 49% of GPP and 63% of TER in the relatively undisturbed forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Because biological and physical processes alter the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CO2, variations in isotopic content can be used to investigate those processes. Isotopic flux measurements of 13CO2 above terrestrial ecosystems can potentially be used to separate net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into its component fluxes, net photosynthetic assimilation (FA) and ecosystem respiration (FR). In this paper theory is developed to partition measured NEE into FA and FR, using measurements of fluxes of CO2 and 13CO2, and isotopic composition of respired CO2 and forest air. The theory is then applied to fluxes measured (or estimated, for 13CO2) in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern Tennessee (Walker Branch Watershed). It appears that there is indeed enough additional information in 13CO2 fluxes to partition NEE into its photosynthetic and respiratory components. Diurnal patterns in FA and FR were obtained, which are consistent in magnitude and shape with patterns obtained from NEE measurements and an exponential regression between night-time NEE and temperature (a standard technique which provides alternate estimates of FR and FA). The light response curve for photosynthesis (FA vs. PAR) was weakly nonlinear, indicating potential for saturation at high light intensities. Assimilation-weighted discrimination against 13CO2 for this forest during July 1999 was 16.8–17.1‰, depending on canopy conductance. The greatest uncertainties in this approach lie in the evaluation of canopy conductance and its effect on whole-canopy photosynthetic discrimination, and thus the indirect methods used to estimate isotopic fluxes. Direct eddy covariance measurements of 13CO2 flux are needed to assess the validity of the assumptions used and provide defensible isotope-based estimates of the component fluxes of net ecosystem exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Because biological and physical processes alter the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CO2, variations in isotopic content can be used to investigate those processes. Isotopic flux measurements of 13CO2 above terrestrial ecosystems can potentially be used to separate net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into its component fluxes, net photosynthetic assimilation (FA) and ecosystem respiration (FR). In this paper theory is developed to partition measured NEE into FA and FR, using measurements of fluxes of CO2 and 13CO2, and isotopic composition of respired CO2 and forest air. The theory is then applied to fluxes measured (or estimated, for 13CO2) in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern Tennessee (Walker Branch Watershed). It appears that there is indeed enough additional information in 13CO2 fluxes to partition NEE into its photosynthetic and respiratory components. Diurnal patterns in FA and FR were obtained, which are consistent in magnitude and shape with patterns obtained from NEE measurements and an exponential regression between night-time NEE and temperature (a standard technique which provides alternate estimates of FR and FA). The light response curve for photosynthesis (FA vs. PAR) was weakly nonlinear, indicating potential for saturation at high light intensities. Assimilation-weighted discrimination against 13CO2 for this forest during July 1999 was 16.8–17.1‰, depending on canopy conductance. The greatest uncertainties in this approach lie in the evaluation of canopy conductance and its effect on whole-canopy photosynthetic discrimination, and thus the indirect methods used to estimate isotopic fluxes. Direct eddy covariance measurements of 13CO2 flux are needed to assess the validity of the assumptions used and provide defensible isotope-based estimates of the component fluxes of net ecosystem exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Organic carbon reservoirs and respiration rates in soils have been calculated for most major biomes on Earth revealing patterns related to temperature, precipitation, and location. Yet data from one of the Earth's coldest, driest, and most southerly soil ecosystems, that of the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, are currently not a part of this global database. In this paper, we present the first regional calculations of the soil organic carbon reservoirs in a dry valley ecosystem (Taylor Valley) and report measurements of CO2 efflux from Antarctic soils. Our analyses indicate that, despite the absence of visible accumulations of organic matter in most of Taylor Valley's arid soils, this soil environment contained a significant percentage (up to 72%) of the seasonally unfrozen organic carbon reservoir in the terrestrial ecosystem. Field measurements of soil CO2-efflux in Taylor Valley soils were used to evaluate biotic respiration and averaged 0.10 ± 0.08 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1. Laboratory soil microcosms suggested that this respiration rate was sensitive to increases in temperature, moisture, and carbon addition. Finally, a steady-state calculation of the mean residence time for organic carbon in Taylor Valley soils was 23 years. Because this value contradicts all that is currently known about carbon cycling rates in the dry valleys, we suggest that the dry valley soil carbon dynamics is not steady state. Instead, we suggest that the dynamic is complex, with at least two (short- and long-term) organic carbon reservoirs. We also suggest that organic carbon in the dry valley soil environment may be more important, and play a more active role in long-term ecosystem processes, than previously believed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryThis paper reports the range and statistical distribution of oxidation rates of atmospheric CH4 in soils found in Northern Europe in an international study, and compares them with published data for various other ecosystems. It reassesses the size, and the uncertainty in, the global terrestrial CH4 sink, and examines the effect of land-use change and other factors on the oxidation rate. Only soils with a very high water table were sources of CH4; all others were sinks. Oxidation rates varied from 1 to nearly 200 μg CH4 m-2 h-1; annual rates for sites measured for ≥1 y were 0.1–9.1 kg CH4 ha-1 y-1, with a log-normal distribution (log-mean ≈ 1.6 kg CH4 ha-1 y-1). Conversion of natural soils to agriculture reduced oxidation rates by two-thirds –- closely similar to results reported for other regions. N inputs also decreased oxidation rates. Full recovery of rates after these disturbances takes > 100 y. Soil bulk density, water content and gas diffusivity had major impacts on oxidation rates. Trends were similar to those derived from other published work. Increasing acidity reduced oxidation, partially but not wholly explained by poor diffusion through litter layers which did not themselves contribute to the oxidation. The effect of temperature was small, attributed to substrate limitation and low atmospheric concentration. Analysis of all available data for CH4 oxidation rates in situ showed similar log-normal distributions to those obtained for our results, with generally little difference between different natural ecosystems, or between short-and longer-term studies. The overall global terrestrial sink was estimated at 29 Tg CH4 y-1, close to the current IPCC assessment, but with a much wider uncertainty range (7 to > 100 Tg CH4 y-1).... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryThe ability of plant species to migrate is one of the critical issues in assessing accurately the future response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. This ability is confined by both natural and human-induced changes in land cover. In this paper we present land-cover and Carbon (C) cycle models designed to simulate the biospheric consequences of different types of land-cover changes. These models, imbedded in the larger integrated assessment model IMAGE 2, were used to demonstrate the importance of considering spatial aspects for global C-cycle modelling. A gradual-migration, an unlimited-migration and a no-migration case were compared to show the range of possible consequences. Major differences between these cases were simulated for land-cover patterns and the carbon budget. A large geographical variation in the biospheric response was also simulated. The strongest response was simulated in high-latitude regions, especially for the migration cases in which land-cover changes were permitted. In low-latitudes regions the differences between the migration cases were smaller, mainly due to the effects of land-use changes. The geographical variation among, and the different responses, the migration cases clearly demonstrate how essential it is to assess biospheric responses to climate change and land use simultaneously. Moreover, it also shows the urgent need for enhanced understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics of the biospheric responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryUnder the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. We show that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryNet ecosystem productivity (NEP), net primary productivity (NPP), and water vapour exchange of a mature Pinus ponderosa forest (44°30′ N, 121°37′ W) growing in a region subject to summer drought were investigated along with canopy assimilation and respiratory fluxes. This paper describes seasonal and annual variation in these factors, and the evaluation of two generalized models of carbon and water balance (PnET-II and 3-PG) with a combination of traditional measurements of NPP, respiration and water stress, and eddy covariance measurements of above-and below-canopy CO2 and water vapour exchange. The objective was to evaluate the models using two years of traditional and eddy covariance measurements, and to use the models to help interpret the relative importance of processes controlling carbon and water vapour exchange in a water-limited pine ecosystem throughout the year. PnET-II is a monthly time-step model that is driven by nitrogen availability through foliar N concentration, and 3-PG is a monthly time-step quantum-efficiency model constrained by extreme temperatures, drought, and vapour pressure deficits. Both models require few parameters and have the potential to be applied at the watershed to regional scale. There was 2/3 less rainfall in 1997 than in 1996, providing a challenge to modelling the water balance, and consequently the carbon balance, when driving the models with the two years of climate data, sequentially. Soil fertility was not a key factor in modelling processes at this site because other environmental factors limited photosynthesis and restricted projected leaf area index to ∼1.6. Seasonally, GEP and LE were overestimated in early summer and underestimated through the rest of the year. The model predictions of annual GEP, NEP and water vapour exchange were within 1–39% of flux measurements, with greater disparity in 1997 because soil water never fully recharged. The results... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryThe high-arctic environment is an environment where the consequences of global warming may be significant. In this paper we report on findings on carbon dioxide and water vapour fluxes above a sedge-dominated fen at Zackenberg (74°28′N, 20°34′ W) in The National Park of North and East Greenland. Eddy covariance measurements were initiated at the start of the growing season and terminated shortly before its end lasting 45 days. The net CO2 flux during daytime reaches a high of 10 μmol m–2s–1, and around the summer solstice, net CO2 assimilation occurred at midnight, resulting in net carbon gain during the night. The measured carbon dioxide fluxes compare well to estimates based on the photosynthesis model by Collatz et al. (1991). The total growing-season net ecosystem CO2 exchange was estimated to be 96 g C m–2 based on the carbon dioxide model and micrometeorological data. Finally, the combined CO2 assimilation and soil respiration models are used for examining the dependence of the carbon dioxide budget on temperature. The ecosystem is found to function optimally given the present temperature conditions whereas either an increase or a decrease in temperature would reduce the ecosystem CO2 accumulation. An increase in temperature by 5 °C would turn the ecosystem into a carbon dioxide source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe microclimate in facilities for studying effects of elevated CO2 on crops differs from ambient conditions. Open-top chambers (OTCs) increase temperature by 1–3 °C. If temperature and CO2 interact in their effect on crops, this would limit the value of OTC experiments. Furthermore, interaction of CO2 and temperature deserves study because increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to cause global warming. This paper describes two experiments in which a recently developed cooling system for OTCs was used to analyse the effects of temperature on photosynthesis, growth and yield of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Minaret). Two levels of CO2 were used (350 and 700 ppm), and two levels of temperature, with cooled OTCs being 1.6–2.4 °C colder than noncooled OTCs. Photosynthetic rates were increased by elevated CO2, but no effect of temperature was found. Cross-switching CO2 concentrations as well as determination of A–Ci curves showed that plant photosynthetic capacity after anthesis acclimated to elevated CO2. The acclimation may be related to the effects of CO2 on tissue composition: elevated CO2 decreased leaf nitrogen concentrations and increased sugar content. Calculations of the seasonal mean crop light-use efficiency (LUE) were consistent with the photosynthesis data in that CO2 increased LUE by 20% on average whereas temperature had no effect. Both elevating CO2 and cooling increased grain yield, by an average of 11% and 23%, respectively. CO2 and temperature stimulated yield via different mechanisms: CO2 increased photosynthetic rate, but decreased crop light interception capacity (LAI), whereas cooling increased grain yield by increasing LAI and extending the growing season with 10 days. The effects of CO2 and temperature were not additive: the CO2 effect was about doubled in the noncooled open-top chambers. In most cases, effects on yield were mediated through increased grain density rather than increased individual grain weights. The higher growth response to elevated CO2 in noncooled vs. cooled OTCs shows that a cooling system may remove a bias towards overestimating crop growth response to CO2 in open-top chambers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractTo provide a common currency for model comparison, validation and manipulation, we suggest and describe the use of impulse response functions, a concept well-developed in other fields, but only partially developed for use in terrestrial carbon cycle modelling. In this paper, we describe the derivation of impulse response functions, and then examine (i) the dynamics of a simple five-box biosphere carbon model; (ii) the dynamics of the CASA biosphere model, a spatially explicit NPP and soil carbon biogeochemistry model; and (iii) various diagnostics of the two models, including the latitudinal distribution of mean age, mean residence time and turnover time. We also (i) deconvolve the past history of terrestrial NPP from an estimate of past carbon sequestration using a derived impulse response function to test the performance of impulse response functions during periods of historical climate change; (ii) convolve impulse response functions from both the simple five-box model and the CASA model against a historical record of atmospheric δ13C to estimate the size of the terrestrial 13C isotopic disequilibrium; and (iii) convolve the same impulse response functions against a historical record of atmospheric 14C to estimate the 14C content and isotopic disequilibrium of the terrestrial biosphere at the 1° × 1° scale. Given their utility in model comparison, and the fact that they facilitate a number of numerical calculations that are difficult to perform with the complex carbon turnover models from which they are derived, we strongly urge the inclusion of impulse response functions as a diagnostic of the perturbation response of terrestrial carbon cycle models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe response of boreal ecosystems to future global change is an uncertain but potentially critical component of the feedback between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. To reduce some of the uncertainties in predicting the responses of this key ecosystem, the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) exposed an entire undisturbed catchment of boreal vegetation to CO2 enrichment (560 ppmv) and climate change (+ 5 °C in winter, + 3 °C in summer) for three years (1994–96). This paper describes the leaf metabolic responses of the vegetation to the experimental treatment and model simulations of possible future changes in the hydrological and carbon balance of the site. Randomized intervention analysis of the leaf gas exchange measurements for the dominant species indicated Pinus sylvestris had significantly (P < 0.01) higher photosynthetic rates and Betula pubescens and Vaccinium myrtillus had significantly (P < 0.01) lower stomatal conductances after three years treatment compared to the controls. These responses led to sustained increases in leaf water-use efficiency of all species of trees and ground shrubs, as determined from carbon isotope analyses. Photosynthesis (A) vs. intercellular CO2 (ci) response curves (A/ci responses), RuBisCo analysis and leaf nitrogen data together suggested none of the species investigated exhibited down-regulation in photosynthetic capacity. At the whole ecosystem level, the improved water economy of the plants did not translate into increased catchment runoff. Modelling simulations for the site indicate this was most likely brought about by a compensatory increase in evapotranspiration. In terms of the carbon budget of the site, the ecosystem model indicates that increased CO2 and temperature would lead to boreal ecosystems of the type used in CLIMEX, and typical of much of southern Norway, acting as moderate net sinks for CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structural framework of soil mediates all soil processes, at all relevant scales. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity prevalent in most soils underpins the majority of biological diversity in soil, providing refuge sites for prey against predator, flow paths for biota to move, or be moved, and localized pools of substrate for biota to multiply. Just as importantly, soil biota play a crucial role in mediating soil structure: bacteria and fungi aggregate and stabilize structure at small scales (μm–cm) and earthworms and termites stabilize and create larger-scale structures (mm–m). The stability of this two-way interaction of structure and biota relations is crucial to the sustainability of the ecosystem. Soil is constantly reacting to changes in microclimates, and many of the soil–plant–microbe processes rely on the functioning of subtle chemical and physical gradients. The effect of global change on soil structure–biota interactions may be significant, through alterations in precipitation, temperature events, or land-use. Nonetheless, because of the complexity and the ubiquitous heterogeneity of these interactions, it is difficult to extrapolate from general qualitative predictions of the effects of perturbations to specific reactions. This paper reviews some of the main soil structure–biota interactions, particularly focusing on soil stability, and the role of biota mediating soil structures. The effect of alterations in climate and land-use on these interactions is investigated. Several case studies of the effect of land-use change are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 may alter patterns of plant biomass production. These changes will be dependent on the ability of plants to acquire sufficient nutrients to maintain enhanced growth. Species-specific differences in responsiveness to CO2 may lead to changes in plant community composition and biodiversity. Differences in species-level growth responses to CO2 may be, in a large part, driven by differences in the ability to acquire nutrients. To understand the mechanisms of how elevated CO2 leads to changes in community-level productivity, we need to study the growth responses and patterns of nutrient acquisition for each of the species that comprise the community. In this paper, we present a study of how elevated CO2 affects community-level and species-level patterns of nitrogen uptake and biomass production. As an experimental system we use experimental communities of 11 co-occurring annuals common to disturbed seasonal grasslands in south-western U.S.A. We established experimental communities with approximately even numbers of each species in three different atmospheric CO2 concentrations (375, 550, and 700 ppm). We maintained these communities for 1, 1.5, and 2 months at which times we applied a 15N tracer (15NH415NO3) to quantify the nitrogen uptake and then measured plant biomass, nitrogen content, and nitrogen uptake rates for the entire communities as well as for each species. Overall, community-level responses to elevated CO2 were consistent with the majority of other studies of individual- and multispecies assemblages, where elevated CO2 leads to enhanced biomass production early on, but this enhancement declines through time. In contrast, the responses of the individual species within the communities was highly variable, showing the full range of responses from positive to negative. Due to the large... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we estimate the European potential for carbon mitigation of no-till farming using results from European tillage experiments. Our calculations suggest some potential in terms of (a) reduced agricultural fossil fuel emissions, and (b) increased soil carbon sequestration. We estimate that 100% conversion to no-till farming would be likely to sequester about 23 Tg C y–1 in the European Union or about 43 Tg C y–1 in the wider Europe (excluding the former Soviet Union). In addition, up to 3.2 Tg C y–1 could be saved in agricultural fossil fuel emissions. Compared to estimates of the potential for carbon sequestration of other carbon mitigation options, no-till agriculture shows nearly twice the potential of scenarios whereby soils are amended with organic materials. Our calculations suggest that 100% conversion to no-till agriculture in Europe could mitigate all fossil fuel-carbon emissions from agriculture in Europe. However, this is equivalent to only about 4.1% of total anthropogenic CO2-carbon produced annually in Europe (excluding the former Soviet Union) which in turn is equivalent to about 0.8% of global annual anthropogenic CO2-carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land–air exchanges of energy and matter are modulated by several feedback processes at both small and large space and time scales, with implications for the linked carbon, water and energy cycles. This paper studies the influences of four local feedbacks, occurring at single-patch spatial scales and subdiurnal temporal scales, on the surface energy balance (SEB) and land–air carbon fluxes. The feedbacks are: (i) radiative feedback, the modulation of available energy through the effect of surface temperature, Ts, on outgoing longwave radiation; (ii) physiological feedback, the interaction between vegetation physiology and the SEB through Ts; (iii) aerodynamic feedback, the modulation of turbulent heat and moisture transfer by atmospheric stability; and (iv) Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) feedback, the coupling between the daytime evolution of the SEB and CBL through saturation deficit. It is found that radiative feedback is significant only over very smooth surfaces. Physiological feedback is positive with respect to Ts at moderate to high temperatures, pushing stomata towards complete closure and the SEB towards very low evaporation rates. The SEB is quite sensitive to whether or not such closure occurs. Aerodynamic feedback, on the other hand, is negative with respect to Ts at these temperatures, reducing Ts and attenuating the tendency for heat-induced stomatal closure. CBL feedback alone does not dampen the sensitivity of the SEB to physiological feedback and stomatal closure. However, when aerodynamic feedback is included, this sensitivity is greatly reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]