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The accelerating rate of global change has focused attention on the cumulative impacts of novel and extreme environmental changes (i.e. stressors), especially in marine ecosystems. As integrators of local catchment and regional processes, freshwater ecosystems are also ranked highly sensitive to the net effects of multiple stressors, yet there has not been a large-scale quantitative synthesis. We analysed data from 88 papers including 286 responses of freshwater ecosystems to paired stressors and discovered that overall, their cumulative mean effect size was less than the sum of their single effects (i.e. an antagonistic interaction). Net effects of dual stressors on diversity and functional performance response metrics were additive and antagonistic, respectively. Across individual studies, a simple vote-counting method revealed that the net effects of stressor pairs were frequently more antagonistic (41%) than synergistic (28%), additive (16%) or reversed (15%). Here, we define a reversal as occurring when the net impact of two stressors is in the opposite direction (negative or positive) from that of the sum of their single effects. While warming paired with nutrification resulted in additive net effects, the overall mean net effect of warming combined with a second stressor was antagonistic. Most importantly, the mean net effects across all stressor pairs and response metrics were consistently antagonistic or additive, contrasting the greater prevalence of reported synergies in marine systems. Here, a possible explanation for more antagonistic responses by freshwater biota to stressors is that the inherent greater environmental variability of smaller aquatic ecosystems fosters greater potential for acclimation and co-adaptation to multiple stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot, both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A future higher risk of severe flooding of streams and rivers has been projected to change riparian plant community composition and species richness, but the extent and direction of the expected change remain uncertain. We conducted a meta-analysis to synthesize globally available experimental evidence and assess the effects of increased flooding on (1) riparian adult plant and seedling survival, (2) riparian plant biomass and (3) riparian plant species composition and richness. We evaluated which plant traits are of key importance for the response of riparian plant species to flooding. We identified and analysed 53 papers from ISI Web of Knowledge which presented quantitative experimental results on flooding treatments and corresponding control situations. Our meta-analysis demonstrated how longer duration of flooding, greater depth of flooding and, particularly, their combination reduce seedling survival of most riparian species. Plant height above water level, ability to elongate shoots and plasticity in root porosity were decisive for adult plant survival and growth during longer periods of flooding. Both 'quiescence' and 'escape' proved to be successful strategies promoting riparian plant survival, which was reflected in the wide variation in survival (full range between 0 and 100%) under fully submerged conditions, while plants that protrude above the water level (>20 cm) almost all survive. Our survey confirmed that the projected increase in the duration and depth of flooding periods is sufficient to result in species shifts. These shifts may lead to increased or decreased riparian species richness depending on the nutrient, climatic and hydrological status of the catchment. Species richness was generally reduced at flooded sites in nutrient-rich catchments and sites that previously experienced relatively stable hydrographs (e.g. rain-fed lowland streams). Species richness usually increased at sites in desert and semi-arid climate regions (e.g. intermittent streams). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe effect of climate change on biologically mediated soil processes is likely to be complex and difficult to predict. The direct effect of changes in soil moisture and temperature may be obscured or even reversed by changes in the return of organic substrates to the soil. This paper is the first in a series reporting the results from a medium-term investigation into the effect of simulated climate change on soil N mineralization in a seminatural calcareous grassland in southern England. Gross rates of N mineralization were determined by isotope dilution in plots subjected to winter warming (3 °C above ambient), enhanced or decreased summer rainfall and combinations of these treatments. The results from the control treatment, reported here, show a strong seasonality of gross N mineralization with rates highest in the Spring and Autumn and lowest in Summer. They indicate that water availability is the main restraint on microbial processes and plant growth and that, in the short term, enhanced summer rainfall is likely to be the main factor influencing nutrient turnover. Further papers will report the results from the imposed treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractHydrologists and ecologists studying tundra ecosystems have worked largely independently, with little cross-fertilization between disciplines. Their disciplines are, however, inextricably linked by a need to understand the dynamics and significance of the common substance water, in its liquid, solid and gaseous state within tundra environments. The impacts of predicted long-term changes in climate have particularly important consequences for the functioning of tundra systems and there is a pressing need to initiate studies that integrate hydrological and ecological methodologies and concepts. Our paper attempts to summarize existing information on the role of water within tundra ecosystems, to emphasize the fundamental links between the biotic and the physico/chemical environments and to suggest how a closer integration of ideas might be achieved. Given the breadth of the subject matter the paper is intended to be illustrative rather than comprehensive. The paper examines the physical impacts of water in its various states on the tundra environment, emphasizing in particular the causes of spatial variation in water availability to living organisms. The significance of water is discussed for a range of organism groups, including plants, invertebrates and microorganisms and its pivotal role in ecosystem function and disturbance stressed. The need to develop integrated hydological/ecological models for tundra systems on different spatial scales is emphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis paper reviews two decades of effort by the scientific community in a search for predictive understanding of plant responses to elevated [CO2]. To evaluate the progress of research in leaf photosynthesis, plant respiration, root nutrient uptake, and carbon partitioning, we divided scientific activities into four phases: (I) initial assessments derived from our existing knowledge base to provide frameworks for experimental studies; (II) experimental tests of the initial assessments; (III) in cases where assessments were invalidated, synthesis of experimental results to stimulate alternative hypotheses and further experimentation; and (IV) formation of new knowledge. This paper suggests that photosynthetic research may have gone through all four phases, considering that (a) variable responses of photosynthesis to [CO2] are generally explainable, (b) extrapolation of leaf-level studies to the global scale has been examined, and (c) molecular studies are under way. Investigation of plant respiratory responses to [CO2] has reached the third phase: experimental results have been accumulated, and mechanistic approaches are being developed to examine alternative hypotheses in search for new concepts and/or new quantitative frameworks to understand respiratory responses to elevated [CO2]. The study of nutrient uptake kinetics is still in the second phase: experimental evidence has contradicted some of the initial assessments, and more experimental studies need to be designed before generalizations can be made. It is quite unfortunate that we have not made much progress in understanding mechanisms of carbon partitioning during the past two decades. This is due in part to the fact that some of the holistic theories, such as functional balance and optimality, have not evolved into testable hypotheses to guide experimental studies. This paper urges modelers to play an increasing role in plant–CO2 research by disassembling these existing theories into hypotheses and urges experimentalists to design experiments to examine these holistic concepts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of soil organic matter ( SOM) dynamics following deforestation or reforestation is essential for evaluating carbon (C) budgets and cycle at regional or global scales. Worldwide land-use changes involving conversion of vegetation with different photosynthetic pathways (e.g. C3 and C4) offer a unique opportunity to quantify SOM decomposition rate and its response to climatic conditions using stable isotope techniques. We synthesized the results from 131 sites (including 87 deforestation observations and 44 reforestation observations) which were compiled from 36 published papers in the literatures as well as our observations in China's Qinling Mountains. Based on the 13C natural abundance analysis, we evaluated the dynamics of new and old C in top soil (0-20 cm) following land-use change and analyzed the relationships between soil organic C ( SOC) decomposition rates and climatic factors. We found that SOC decomposition rates increased significantly with mean annual temperature and precipitation in the reforestation sites, and they were not related to any climatic factor in deforestation sites. The mean annual temperature explained 56% of variation in SOC decomposition rates by exponential model ( y = 0.0014 e0.1395 x) in the reforestation sites. The proportion of new soil C increased following deforestation and reforestation, whereas the old soil C showed an opposite trend. The proportion of new soil C exceeded the proportion of old soil C after 45.4 years' reforestation and 43.4 years' deforestation, respectively. The rates of new soil C accumulation increased significantly with mean annual precipitation and temperature in the reforestation sites, yet only significantly increased with mean annual precipitation in the deforestation sites. Overall, our study provides evidence that SOC decomposition rates vary with temperature and precipitation, and thereby implies that global warming may accelerate SOM decomposition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial ecosystems sequester roughly 30% of anthropogenic carbon emission. However this estimate has not been directly deduced from studies of terrestrial ecosystems themselves, but inferred from atmospheric and oceanic data. This raises a question: to what extent is the terrestrial carbon cycle intrinsically predictable? In this paper, we investigated fundamental properties of the terrestrial carbon cycle, examined its intrinsic predictability, and proposed a suite of future research directions to improve empirical understanding and model predictive ability. Specifically, we isolated endogenous internal processes of the terrestrial carbon cycle from exogenous forcing variables. The internal processes share five fundamental properties (i.e., compartmentalization, carbon input through photosynthesis, partitioning among pools, donor pool-dominant transfers, and the first-order decay) among all types of ecosystems on the Earth. The five properties together result in an emergent constraint on predictability of various carbon cycle components in response to five classes of exogenous forcing. Future observational and experimental research should be focused on those less predictive components while modeling research needs to improve model predictive ability for those highly predictive components. We argue that an understanding of predictability should provide guidance on future observational, experimental and modeling research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment of either forest or grassland on degraded cropland has been proposed as an effective method for climate change mitigation because these land use types can increase soil carbon (C) stocks. This paper synthesized 135 recent publications (844 observations at 181 sites) focused on the conversion from cropland to grassland, shrubland or forest in China, better known as the 'Grain-for-Green' Program to determine which factors were driving changes to soil organic carbon ( SOC). The results strongly indicate a positive impact of cropland conversion on soil C stocks. The temporal pattern for soil C stock changes in the 0-100 cm soil layer showed an initial decrease in soil C during the early stage (<5 years), and then an increase to net C gains (>5 years) coincident with vegetation restoration. The rates of soil C change were higher in the surface profile (0-20 cm) than in deeper soil (20-100 cm). Cropland converted to forest (arbor) had the additional benefit of a slower but more persistent C sequestration capacity than shrubland or grassland. Tree species played a significant role in determining the rate of change in soil C stocks (conifer < broadleaf, evergreen < deciduous forests). Restoration age was the main factor, not temperature and precipitation, affecting soil C stock change after cropland conversion with higher initial soil C stock sites having a negative effect on soil C accumulation. Soil C sequestration significantly increased with restoration age over the long-term, and therefore, the large scale of land-use change under the 'Grain-for-Green' Program will significantly increase China's C stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913-2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod - mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea - is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century - mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3½ decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global Change Biology, 22, 76 - 91. 10 Smith, P., House, J. I., Bustamante, M., Sobocka, J., Harper, R., Pan, G., West, P. C., Clark, J. M., Adhya, T., Rumpel, C., Paustian, K., Kuikman, P., Cotrufo, M. F., Elliott, J. A., McDowell, R., Griffiths, R. I., Asakawa, S., Bondeau, A., Jain, A. K., ... Pugh, T. A. M. (2016). Announcing GCB reviews - The past, present and future of global change biology at your fingertips GLO:EVN/01apr21:gcb15500-fig-0001.jpg PHOTO (COLOR): 1 Breakdown of the papers published in Global Change Biology between 1995 and 2020 by category gl With this background in mind, we have recently embarked on a new program to commission world-leading experts from around the globe to produce invited reviews on global change biology topics. [Extracted from the article]

218 | Glob Change Biol. 2021;27:218-219. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/gcb Received: 24 September 2020 | Accepted: 28 September 2020 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15381 C O MME N T A R Y The importance of nitrogen for net carbon sequestration when considering natural climate solutions Christian A. Davies 1,2 | Andy D. Robertson 1 | Niall P. McNamara 2 1 Shell International Exploration and Production Inc. (USA), Shell Technology Centre Houston, Houston, TX, USA 2 UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, UK Correspondence Christian A. Davies, Shell International Exploration and Production Inc., Shell Technology Center Houston, 3333 Highway 6 South, Houston, TX 77082, USA. Overall, the paper by Guenet et al. (2020) summarizes the agricultural management options for increasing SOC stocks and implications of associated N 2 O emissions on net GHG emissions. [Extracted from the article]

This is a Response article to Letter to the Editor by Rosentreter and Williamson, 26, 5351-5352. See also the Research Review paper by Al‐Haj and Fulweiler 26, 2988-3005. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model ( PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant ( Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate warming is predicted to lead to global and regional changes in the distribution of organisms. One influential approach to test this prediction using temporally repeated mapping surveys of organisms was suggested in a seminal paper by Thomas & Lennon (1999, Nature). The Thomas & Lennon approach corrects observed changes in the range margin for changes in the range size, and thus potentially controls for other broad-scale environmental changes between surveys, however the approach does not necessarily account for potential biases in sampling effort. To verify whether the issue of variation in sampling effort affects empirical estimates of shifts in range margin, we reanalyzed all three published studies exploring range margin changes of breeding birds in Great Britain ( GB), Finland, and New York State ( NY). Accounting for changes in survey effort on range margins lowered the estimated shift for breeding birds in New York, but the shift remained statistically significant. For Great Britain and Finland, for which no direct estimate of survey effort is available, we used species richness (a strong correlate of survey effort in New York) as a proxy and found that in both cases the estimated shift in range margin was significantly reduced and became nonsignificant. To understand how robust the approach is to sampling biases, we use a simulation model to show that the Thomas & Lennon approach is, under certain conditions, sensitive to changes in detection probability (probability to detect true occupancy) which in turn may be affected by changes in surveying effort between surveys. We thus found evidence that temporal changes in the distribution of breeding birds based on repeated mapping surveys may be inflated by changes in survey effort along range boundaries. We discuss possible approaches to deal with this issue in the analysis and design of national or regional surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric change and species invasions are arguably two of the most important factors affecting the long-term sustainability of natural ecosystems. We examined the independent and interactive effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide ( CO2) and tropospheric ozone ( O3) on the foliar quality of two host species and performance of an invasive folivorous insect. Trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides) and paper birch ( Betula papyrifera) were grown at the Aspen FACE research site in northern Wisconsin, USA, under all combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and O3. We measured the effects of elevated CO2 and O3 on aspen and birch phytochemistry and on the survivorship, development time, growth, and fecundity of the gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar). Elevated CO2 had little effect on, whereas elevated O3 altered, the composite phytochemical profiles of aspen and birch. Nutritional quality in aspen and birch leaves was marginally affected by elevated CO2 and reduced by elevated O3. Both gases increased concentrations of phenolic and structural compounds in aspen and birch. Elevated CO2 offset reduced foliar quality under elevated O3, but only in aspen, and to a greater extent later than earlier in spring. Elevated CO2 generally had beneficial effects on, while elevated O3 detrimentally affected, gypsy moth performance. Elevated CO2 ameliorated most of the reductions in gypsy moth performance under elevated O3. Our findings suggest that atmospheric change can alter foliar quality in gypsy moth hosts sufficiently to influence gypsy moth performance, but that these responses will depend on interactions among CO2, O3, and tree species. Our findings also contrast with those of earlier studies at Aspen FACE, indicating that foliar quality responses to environmental change are likely influenced by tree stand age and longevity of exposure to pollutants to the extent that they affect plant-herbivore interactions differently over decadal time spans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In rice cultivation, there are controversial reports on net impacts of nitrogen (N) fertilizers on methane ( CH4) emissions. Nitrogen fertilizers increase crop growth as well as alter CH4 producing (Methanogens) and consuming (Methanotrophs) microbes, and thereby produce complex effects on CH4 emissions. Objectives of this study were to determine net impact of N fertilizers on CH4 emissions and to identify their underlying mechanisms in the rice soils. Database was obtained from 33 published papers that contained CH4 emissions observations from N fertilizer (28-406 kg N ha−1) treatment and its control. Results have indicated that N fertilizers increased CH4 emissions in 98 of 155 data pairs in rice soils. Response of CH4 emissions per kg N fertilizer was significantly ( P < 0.05) greater at < 140 kg N ha−1 than > 140 kg N ha−1 indicating that substrate switch from CH4 to ammonia by Methanotrophs may not be a dominant mechanism for increased CH4 emissions. On the contrary, decreased CH4 emission in intermittent drainage by N fertilizers has suggested the stimulation of Methanotrophs in rice soils. Effects of N fertilizer stimulated Methanotrophs in reducing CH4 emissions were modified by the continuous flood irrigation due to limitation of oxygen to Methanotrophs. Greater response of CH4 emissions per kg N fertilizer in urea than ammonia sulfate probably indicated the interference of sulfate in the CH4 production process. Overall, response of CH4 emissions to N fertilizers was correlated with N-induced crop yield ( r = +0.39; P < 0.01), probably due to increased carbon substrates for Methanogens. Using CH4 emission observations, this meta-analysis has identified dominant microbial processes that control net effects of N fertilizers on CH4 emissions in rice soils. Finally, we have provided a conceptual model that included microbial processes and controlling factors to predict effects of N fertilizers on CH4 emissions in rice soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in C4 grass distribution and abundance are frequently observed in Quaternary, Holocene and future environmental-change scenarios. However, the factors driving these dynamics are not fully understood, and conflicting theories have been reported. In this paper, we present a very large dataset of modern altitudinal distribution profiles of C3 and C4 grasses covering the entire Neotropical Andes, which was compared with actual climate data. The results of multivariate analysis demonstrate that, in the Neotropical Andes, mean annual temperature is the main factor governing the modern altitudinal distribution of C3 and C4 grass species. The C3 and C4 grass distributions were compared with simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model ( LPJ- DGVM), which allowed the present grass distribution to be estimated. Finally, the DGVM was employed to simulate past and future scenarios, using the IPCC's climate projections for 2100 and PMIP2 models for the Holocene Optimum ( HO, 6000 years bp) and the Last Glacial Maximum ( LGM, 21 000 years bp). The results were found to be significantly different from those obtained using a simple photosynthetic model. According to LPJ forced with the PMIP2 models for the LGM, during the LGM, the C4 grasses would not have reached higher altitudes than found in the present day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and habitat loss are both key threatening processes driving the global loss in biodiversity. Yet little is known about their synergistic effects on biological populations due to the complexity underlying both processes. If the combined effects of habitat loss and climate change are greater than the effects of each threat individually, current conservation management strategies may be inefficient and at worst ineffective. Therefore, there is a pressing need to identify whether interacting effects between climate change and habitat loss exist and, if so, quantify the magnitude of their impact. In this article, we present a meta-analysis of studies that quantify the effect of habitat loss on biological populations and examine whether the magnitude of these effects depends on current climatic conditions and historical rates of climate change. We examined 1319 papers on habitat loss and fragmentation, identified from the past 20 years, representing a range of taxa, landscapes, land-uses, geographic locations and climatic conditions. We find that current climate and climate change are important factors determining the negative effects of habitat loss on species density and/or diversity. The most important determinant of habitat loss and fragmentation effects, averaged across species and geographic regions, was current maximum temperature, with mean precipitation change over the last 100 years of secondary importance. Habitat loss and fragmentation effects were greatest in areas with high maximum temperatures. Conversely, they were lowest in areas where average rainfall has increased over time. To our knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a global terrestrial analysis of existing data to quantify and test for interacting effects between current climate, climatic change and habitat loss on biological populations. Understanding the synergistic effects between climate change and other threatening processes has critical implications for our ability to support and incorporate climate change adaptation measures into policy development and management response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical wetlands have been shown to exhibit high rates of net primary productivity and may therefore play an important role in global climate change mitigation through carbon assimilation and sequestration. Many permanently flooded areas of tropical East Africa are dominated by the highly productive C4 emergent macrophyte sedge, Cyperus papyrus L. (papyrus). However, increasing population densities around wetland margins in East Africa are reducing the extent of papyrus coverage due to the planting of subsistence crops such as Colocasia esculenta (cocoyam). In this paper, we assess the impact of this land use change on the carbon cycle and in particular the impacts of land conversion on net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange. Eddy covariance techniques were used, on a campaign basis, to measure fluxes of carbon dioxide over both papyrus and cocoyam dominated wetlands located on the Ugandan shore of Lake Victoria. Peak rates of net photosynthetic CO2 assimilation, derived from monthly diurnal averages of net ecosystem exchange, of 28-35 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 and 15-20 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 were recorded in the papyrus and cocoyam wetlands, respectively, whereas night-time respiratory losses ranged between 10 and 15 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 at the papyrus wetland and 5-10 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 at the cocoyam site. The integration of the flux data suggests that papyrus wetlands have the potential to act as a sink for significant amounts of carbon, in the region of 10 t C ha−1 yr−1. The cocoyam vegetation assimilated ~7 t C ha−1 yr−1 but when carbon exports from crop biomass removal were accounted for these wetlands represent a significant net loss of carbon of similar magnitude. The development of sustainable wetland management strategies are therefore required to promote the dual wetland function of crop production and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions especially under future climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are a global phenomenon that threatens biodiversity, and few, if any, ecosystems are free from alien species. The outcome of human-mediated introductions is affected by the invasiveness of species and invasibility of ecosystems, but research has primarily focused on defining, characterizing and identifying invasive species; ecosystem invasibility has received much less attention. A prerequisite for characterizing invasibility is the ability to compare levels of invasion across ecosystems. In this paper, we aim to identify the best way to quantify the level of invasion by nonnative animals and plants by reviewing the advantages and disadvantages of different metrics. We explore how interpretation and choice of these measures can depend on the objective of a study or management intervention. Based on our review, we recommend two invasion indices and illustrate their use by applying them to two case studies. Relative alien species richness and relative alien species abundance indicate the contribution that alien species make to a community. They are easy to measure, can be applied to various taxa, are independent of scale and are comparable across regions and ecosystems, and historical data are often available. The relationship between relative alien richness and abundance can indicate the presence of dominant alien species and the trajectory of invasion over time, and can highlight ecosystems and sites that are heavily invaded or especially susceptible to invasion. Splitting species into functional groups and examining invasion patterns of transformer species may be particularly instructive for gauging effects of alien invasion on ecosystem structure and function. Establishing standard, transparent ways to define and quantify invasion level will facilitate meaningful comparisons among studies, ecosystem types and regions. It is essential for progress in ecology and will help guide ecosystem restoration and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A soil-plant-atmosphere model was used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) of a tropical savanna in Australia. This paper describes model modifications required to simulate the substantial C4 grass understory together with C3 trees. The model was further improved to include a seasonal distribution of leaf area and foliar nitrogen through 10 canopy layers. Model outputs were compared with a 5-year eddy covariance dataset. Adding the C4 photosynthesis component improved the model efficiency and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) for total ecosystem GPP by better emulating annual peaks and troughs in GPP across wet and dry seasons. The C4 photosynthesis component had minimal impact on modelled values of ET. Outputs of GPP from the modified model agreed well with measured values, explaining between 79% and 90% of the variance and having a low RMSE (0.003-0.281 g C m−2 day−1). Approximately, 40% of total annual GPP was contributed by C4 grasses. Total (trees and grasses) wet season GPP was approximately 75-80% of total annual GPP. Light-use efficiency (LUE) was largest for the wet season and smallest in the dry season and C4 LUE was larger than that of the trees. A sensitivity analysis of GPP revealed that daily GPP was most sensitive to changes in leaf area index (LAI) and foliar nitrogen (Nf) and relatively insensitive to changes in maximum carboxylation rate ( Vcmax), maximum electron transport rate ( Jmax) and minimum leaf water potential ( ψmin). The modified model was also able to represent daily and seasonal patterns in ET, (explaining 68-81% of variance) with a low RMSE (0.038-0.19 mm day−1). Current values of Nf, LAI and other parameters appear to be colimiting for maximizing GPP. By manipulating LAI and soil moisture content inputs, we show that modelled GPP is limited by light interception rather than water availability at this site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares data on N fluxes compiled by Schulze and colleagues, with information available in the literature and publicly available open databases, and finds important discrepancies for a number of such fluxes for Europe (emissions, deposition, aerosol formation of compounds containing N) - exceeding a factor of two in several cases. A qualitative assessment of the uncertainties of the respective approaches indicates that these differences are beyond the uncertainty margins that can be reasonably attributed to the respective data.We conclude that the results should be used with caution, that agricultural application of N should still be considered to be the largest source of N released to the environment, and that this agricultural N affects soils more strongly than atmospheric deposition, at the European scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of vegetation function are widely used to predict the effects of climate change on carbon, water and nutrient cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, and their feedbacks to climate. Stomatal conductance, the process that governs plant water use and carbon uptake, is fundamental to such models. In this paper, we reconcile two long-standing theories of stomatal conductance. The empirical approach, which is most commonly used in vegetation models, is phenomenological, based on experimental observations of stomatal behaviour in response to environmental conditions. The optimal approach is based on the theoretical argument that stomata should act to minimize the amount of water used per unit carbon gained. We reconcile these two approaches by showing that the theory of optimal stomatal conductance can be used to derive a model of stomatal conductance that is closely analogous to the empirical models. Consequently, we obtain a unified stomatal model which has a similar form to existing empirical models, but which now provides a theoretical interpretation for model parameter values. The key model parameter, g, is predicted to increase with growth temperature and with the marginal water cost of carbon gain. The new model is fitted to a range of datasets ranging from tropical to boreal trees. The parameter g is shown to vary with growth temperature, as predicted, and also with plant functional type. The model is shown to correctly capture responses of stomatal conductance to changing atmospheric CO, and thus can be used to test for stomatal acclimation to elevated CO. The reconciliation of the optimal and empirical approaches to modelling stomatal conductance is important for global change biology because it provides a simple theoretical framework for analyzing, and simulating, the coupling between carbon and water cycles under environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research in the soil of the tropics mostly has demonstrated the decline of soil organic carbon (SOC) after conversion of primary forest to plantation and cultivated lands. This paper illustrates the dynamics of SOC on the island of Java, Indonesia, from 1930 to 2010. We used 2002 soil profile observations containing organic carbon (C) analysis in the topsoil, which were collected by the Indonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research & Development from 1923 to 2007. Results show the obvious decline of SOC values from around 2% in 1930-1940 to 0.8% in 1960-1970. However, there has been an increase of SOC content since 1970, with a median level of 1.1% in the year 2000. Our analysis suggests that the human influence and agricultural practices on SOC in Java have been a stronger influence than the environmental factors. SOC for the top 10 cm has shown a net accumulation rate of 0.2-0.3 Mg C ha yr during the period 1990-2000. These findings give rise to optimism for increased soil C sequestration in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines carbon stocks and their relative balance in terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Biome-BGC, LPJ, and CASA in an ensemble model experiment conducted using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System. We developed the Hierarchical Framework for Diagnosing Ecosystem Models to separate the simulated biogeochemistry into a cascade of functional tiers and examine their characteristics sequentially. The analyses indicate that the simulated biomass is usually two to three times higher in Biome-BGC than LPJ or CASA. Such a discrepancy is mainly induced by differences in model parameters and algorithms that regulate the rates of biomass turnover. The mean residence time of biomass in Biome-BGC is estimated to be 40-80 years in temperate/moist climate regions, while it mostly varies between 5 and 30 years in CASA and LPJ. A large range of values is also found in the simulated soil carbon. The mean residence time of soil carbon in Biome-BGC and LPJ is ∼200 years in cold regions, which decreases rapidly with increases of temperature at a rate of ∼10 yr °C. Because long-term soil carbon pool is not simulated in CASA, its corresponding mean residence time is only about 10-20 years and less sensitive to temperature. Another key factor that influences the carbon balance of the simulated ecosystem is disturbance caused by wildfire, for which the algorithms vary among the models. Because fire emissions are balanced by net ecosystem production (NEP) at steady states, magnitudes, and spatial patterns of NEP vary significantly as well. Slight carbon imbalance may be left by the spin-up algorithm of the models, which adds uncertainty to the estimated carbon sources or sinks. Although these results are only drawn on the tested model versions, the developed methodology has potential for other model exercises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of our global population and its CO emissions can be attributed to urban areas. The process of urbanization changes terrestrial carbon stocks and fluxes, which, in turn, impact ecosystem functions and atmospheric CO concentrations. Using the Seattle, WA, region as a case study, this paper explores the relationships between aboveground carbon stocks and land cover within an urbanizing area. The major objectives were to estimate aboveground live and dead terrestrial carbon stocks across multiple land cover classes and quantify the relationships between urban cover and vegetation across a gradient of urbanization. We established 154 sample plots in the Seattle region to assess carbon stocks as a function of distance from the urban core and land cover [urban (heavy, medium, and low), mixed forest, and conifer forest land covers]. The mean (and 95% CI) aboveground live biomass for the region was 89±22 Mg C ha with an additional 11.8±4 Mg C ha of coarse woody debris biomass. The average live biomass stored within forested and urban land covers was 140±40 and 18±14 Mg C ha, respectively, with a 57% mean vegetated canopy cover regionally. Both the total carbon stocks and mean vegetated canopy cover were surprisingly high, even within the heavily urbanized areas, well exceeding observations within other urbanizing areas and the average US forested carbon stocks. As urban land covers and populations continue to rapidly increase across the globe, these results highlight the importance of considering vegetation in urbanizing areas within the terrestrial carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will have substantial impacts on biodiversity, particularly for aquatic species. Warming temperatures and changing weather patterns will also remobilize and modify chemical partitioning. Holding millions of cubic yards of sediments contaminated with persistent legacy chemicals such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dioxins, the Laurentian Great Lakes are a laboratory for observing interactions between biological and chemical responses to climate change. They provide a wide range of habitat to a variety of species, from littoral forage fish to deep-water predators. In this paper, we couple bioenergetic and bioaccumulation models to investigate the biological and chemical effects of climate change in the Great Lakes. We consider three species: round goby, a warm-water invasive forage fish; mottled sculpin, a cool-water native forage fish; and lake trout, a cold-water native predator. Using our coupled models, we calculate the accumulation of a representative persistent chemical, PCB-77, under four climate scenarios for Lake Erie and Lake Superior. Predator-prey (lake trout-round goby) interactions and food availability (high-low) are incorporated into our simulations. For cool- to cold-water species (sculpin, lake trout) we find that warm temperatures limit growth. For warm-water species (round goby) cold temperatures limit growth. The impact of climate warming on growth depends on the winter lows as well as the summer highs of the scenario, in combination with the species' critical upper and lower thermal limits. We find conditions for high growth and consumption rates generally lead to high bioaccumulation. However, this can be confounded by predator-prey dynamics, as mismatches in the temperature preferences of predator and prey can lead to mismatches in relative growth and uptake rates. As predator-prey dynamics are expected to undergo substantial shifts with changing climate, these relative thermal sensitivities will be key in determining the implications of climate change for bioaccumulation, particularly in top predator species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Records of effects of ambient ozone pollution on vegetation have been compiled for Europe for the years 1990-2006. Sources include scientific papers, conference proceedings, reports to research funders, records of confirmed ozone injury symptoms and an international biomonitoring experiment coordinated by the ICP Vegetation. The latter involved ozone-sensitive (NC-S) and ozone-resistant (NC-R) biotypes of white clover ( Trifolium repens L.) grown according to a common protocol and monitored for ozone injury and biomass differences in 17 European countries, from 1996 to 2006. Effects were separated into visible injury or growth/yield reduction. Of the 644 records of visible injury, 39% were for crops (27 species), 38.1% were for (semi-) natural vegetation (95 species) and 22.9% were for shrubs (49 species). Owing to inconsistencies in reporting effort from year to year it was not possible to determine geographical or temporal trends in the data. Nevertheless, this study has shown effects in ambient air in 18 European countries from Sweden in the north to Greece in the south. These effects data were superimposed on AOT40 (accumulated ozone concentrations over 40 ppb) and POD3 (modelled accumulated stomatal flux over a threshold of 3 nmol m s) maps generated by the EMEP Eulerian model (50 km × 50 km grid) that were parameterized for a generic crop based on wheat and NC-S/NC-R white clover. Many effects were found in areas where the AOT40 (crops) was below the critical level of 3 ppm h. In contrast, the majority of effects were detected in grid squares where POD3 (crops) were in the mid-high range (>12 mmol m). Overall, maps based on POD3 provided better fit to the effects data than those based on AOT40, with the POD3 model for clover fitting the clover effects data better than that for a generic crop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing temperatures are likely to impact ectothermic pests of fruits and nuts. This paper aims to assess changes to pest pressure in California's US$0.7 billion walnut industry due to recent historic and projected future temperature changes. For two past (1950 and 2000) and 18 future climate scenarios (2041-2060 and 2080-2099; each for three General Circulation Models and three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios), 100 years of hourly temperature were generated for 205 locations. Degree-day models were used to project mean generation numbers for codling moth ( Cydia pomonella L.), navel orangeworm ( Amyelois transitella Walker), two-spotted spider mite ( Tetranychus urticae Koch), and European red mite ( Panonychus ulmi Koch). In the Central Valley, the number of codling moth generations predicted for degree days accumulated between April 1 and October 1 rose from 2-4 in 1950 to 3-5 among all future scenarios. Generation numbers increased from 10-18 to 14-24 for two-spotted spider mite, from 9-14 to 14-20 for European red mite, and from 2-4 to up to 5 for navel orangeworm. Overall pest pressure can thus be expected to increase substantially. Our study did not include the possibility of higher winter survival rates, leading to higher initial pest counts in spring, or of extended pest development times in the summer, factors that are likely to exacerbate future pest pressure. On the other hand, initiation of diapause may prevent an extension of the season length for arthropods, and higher incidence of heat death in summer may constrain pest population sizes. More information on the impact of climate change on complex agroecological food webs and on the response of pests to high temperatures is needed for improving the reliability of projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although northern peatlands cover only 3% of the land surface, their thick peat deposits contain an estimated one-third of the world's soil organic carbon (SOC). Under a changing climate the potential of peatlands to continue sequestering carbon is unknown. This paper presents an analysis of 6 years of total carbon balance of an almost intact Atlantic blanket bog in Glencar, County Kerry, Ireland. The three components of the measured carbon balance were: the land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO) and methane (CH) and the flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported in a stream draining the peatland. The 6 years C balance was computed from 6 years (2003-2008) of measurements of meteorological and eddy-covariance CO fluxes, periodic chamber measurements of CH fluxes over 3.5 years, and 2 years of continuous DOC flux measurements. Over the 6 years, the mean annual carbon was −29.7±30.6 (±1 SD) g C m yr with its components as follows: carbon in CO was a sink of −47.8±30.0 g C m yr; carbon in CH was a source of 4.1±0.5 g C m yr and the carbon exported as stream DOC was a source of 14.0±1.6 g C m yr. For 2 out of the 6 years, the site was a source of carbon with the sum of CH and DOC flux exceeding the carbon sequestered as CO. The average C balance for the 6 years corresponds to an average annual growth rate of the peatland surface of 1.3 mm yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of evaluating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy cows within the whole farm setting is being realized as more important than evaluating these emissions in isolation. Current whole farm models aimed at evaluating GHG emissions make use of simple regression equations to predict enteric methane (CH) production. The objective of the current paper is to evaluate the performance of nine CH prediction equations that are currently being used in whole farm GHG models. Data used to evaluate the prediction equations came from a collection of individual (IND) and treatment averaged (TRT) data. Equations were compared based on mean square prediction error (MSPE) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) analysis. In general, predictions were poor, with root MSPE (as a percentage of observed mean) values ranging from 20.2 to 52.5 for the IND database and from 24.0 to 38.2 for the TRT database and CCC values ranging from 0.009 to 0.493 for the IND database and from 0.000 to 0.271 for the TRT database. Overall, the equations of Moe & Tyrrell and IPCC Tier II performed best on the IND dataset, and the equations of Moe & Tyrrell and Kirchgeßner et al., performed best on the TRT dataset. Results show that the simple more generalized equations performed worse than those that attempted to represent important aspects of diet composition, but in general significant amounts of bias and deviation of the regression slope from unity existed for all equations. The low prediction accuracy of CH equations in whole farm models may introduce substantial error into inventories of GHG emissions and lead to incorrect mitigation recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicted climate change in the Andes will require plant species to migrate upslope to avoid extinction. Central to predictions of species responses to climate change is an understanding of species distributions along environmental gradients. Environmental gradients are frequently modelled as abiotic, but biotic interactions can play important roles in setting species distributions, abundances, and life history traits. Biotic interactions also have the potential to influence species responses to climate change, yet they remain mostly unquantified. An important interaction long studied in tropical forests is postdispersal seed predation which has been shown to affect the population dynamics, community structure, and diversity of plant species in time and space. This paper presents a comparative seed predation study of 24 species of tropical trees across a 2.5 km elevation gradient in the Peruvian Andes and quantifies seed predation variation across the elevational gradient. We then use demographic modelling to assess effects of the observed variation in seed predation on population growth rates in response to observed increasing temperatures in the area. We found marked variation among species in total seed predation depending on the major seed predator of the species and consistent changes in seed predation across the gradient. There was a significant increase in seed survival with increasing elevation, a trend that appears to be driven by regulation of seed predators via top-down forces in the lowlands giving way to bottom-up (productivity) regulation at mid- to high elevations, resulting in a ninefold increase in effective fecundity for trees at high elevations. This potential increase in seed crop size strongly affects modelled plant population growth and seed dispersal distances, increasing population migration potential in the face of climate change. These results also indicate that species interactions can have effects on par with climate in species responses to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important agricultural production area in China. Crop production in the NCP is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. While previous studies showed a negative impact of climatic change on crop yield since 1980s, the confounding effects of climatic and agronomic factors have not been separately investigated. This paper used 25 years of crop data from three locations (Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Luancheng) across the NCP, together with daily weather data and crop modeling, to analyse the contribution of changes in climatic and agronomic factors to changes in grain yields of wheat and maize. The results showed that the changes in climate were not uniform across the NCP and during different crop growth stages. Warming mainly occurred during the vegetative (preflowering) growth stage of wheat and maize, while there was a cooling trend or no significant change in temperatures during the postflowering stage of wheat (spring) or maize (autumn). If varietal effects were excluded, warming during vegetative stages would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for both crops, generally leading to a negative impact on crop production. However, autonomous adoption of new crop varieties in the NCP was able to compensate the negative impact of climatic change. For both wheat and maize, the varietal changes helped stabilize the length of preflowering period against the shortening effect of warming and, together with the slightly reduced temperature in the postflowering period, extend the length of the grain-filling period. The combined effect led to increased wheat yield at Zhengzhou and Luancheng; increased maize yield at Nanyang and Luancheng; stabilized wheat yield at Nanyang, and a slight reduction in maize yield at Zhengzhou, compared with the yield change caused entirely by climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To accurately predict ecosystem responses induced by climate warming at local-to-global scales, models are in need of more precise knowledge of response during periods of environmental stress such as drought. In this paper, we studied environmental control of canopy-level water use efficiency (WUE) during drought at an eddy flux site in an oak-hickory forest in central Missouri, USA. Two consecutive severe droughts in the summers of 2006 and 2007 afforded coverage of a broad range of environmental conditions. We stratified data to obtain subranges that minimized cross-correlations among putative WUE-controlling factors. Our results showed that WUE was subject to control by atmospheric saturation deficit (ASD), soil water potential (SWP) and the ratio of diffuse to total photosynthetically active radiation ( If/ It). Generally, WUE was found to scale with 1/(ASD)0.5, consistent with predictions from stomatal optimization theory. In contrast, SWP and If/ It were related to WUE in a linear fashion. ASD was better correlated with WUE than either of the other two factors. It was also observed that the relationship between WUE and any single controlling factor was subject to influence of the other two. One such example was an opposite response of WUE to SWP between low and high ASD values, suggesting a breakdown of stomatal optimality under severe environmental stresses and a shift from optimal stomatal regulation to nonstomatal regulation at leaf scale. We have demonstrated that different data handling (stratified vs. nonstratified) or selection (hourly vs. daily) could lead to different conclusions on the relationship between WUE and its controls. For this reason, we recommend modelers to be cautious when applying WUE-response formulas at environmental conditions or at time scales different from those at which they are derived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a new approach, based on a mixed model procedure, to quantify the tree-ring-based growth-climate relationship of trembling aspen along a latitudinal gradient from 46 to 54 °N in eastern Canada. This approach allows breaking down the growth response into general intersite and local climatic responses, and analyzing variations of absolute ring width as well as interannual variations in tree growth. The final model also integrates nonclimatic variables such as soil characteristics and the occurrence of insect outbreaks into the growth predictions. Tree level random effects on growth were important as intercepts but were nonsignificant for the climatic variables, indicating that a single climate–growth relationship was justified in our case. The response of tree growth to climate showed, however, a strong dependence on the spatial scale at which the analysis was performed. Intersite variations in tree growth were mostly dependent on variations in the thermal heat sum, a variable that showed low interannual and high intersite variation. When variation for a single site was analyzed, other variables showed up to be important while the heat sum was unimportant. Finally, future growth under six different climate change scenarios was simulated in order to study the potential impact of climate change. Results suggest only moderate growth increases in the northern portion of the gradient and a growth decrease in the southern portion under future climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lowland peatlands of south-east Asia represent an immense reservoir of fossil carbon and are reportedly responsible for 30% of the global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry. This paper provides a review and meta-analysis of available literature on greenhouse gas fluxes from tropical peat soils in south-east Asia. As in other parts of the world, water level is the main control on greenhouse gas fluxes from south-east Asian peat soils. Based on subsidence data we calculate emissions of at least 900 g CO2 m−2 a−1 (∼250 g C m−2 a−1) for each 10 cm of additional drainage depth. This is a conservative estimate as the role of oxidation in subsidence and the increased bulk density of the uppermost drained peat layers are yet insufficiently quantified. The majority of published CO2 flux measurements from south-east Asian peat soils concerns undifferentiated respiration at floor level, providing inadequate insight on the peat carbon balance. In contrast to previous assumptions, regular peat oxidation after drainage might contribute more to the regional long-term annual CO2 emissions than peat fires. Methane fluxes are negligible at low water levels and amount to up to 3 mg CH4 m−2 h−1 at high water levels, which is low compared with emissions from boreal and temperate peatlands. The latter emissions may be exceeded by fluxes from rice paddies on tropical peat soil, however. N2O fluxes are erratic with extremely high values upon application of fertilizer to wet peat soils. Current data on CO2 and CH4 fluxes indicate that peatland rewetting in south-east Asia will lead to substantial reductions of net greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, an urgent need for further quantitative research on carbon exchange to support the development of consistent policies for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation usually results in significant losses of soil organic carbon (SOC). The rate and factors determining the recovery of this C pool with afforestation are still poorly understood. This paper provides a review of the influence of afforestation on SOC stocks based on a meta-analysis of 33 recent publications (totaling 120 sites and 189 observations), with the aim of determining the factors responsible for the restoration of SOC following afforestation. Based on a mixed linear model, the meta-analysis indicates that the main factors that contribute to restoring SOC stocks after afforestation are: previous land use, tree species planted, soil clay content, preplanting disturbance and, to a lesser extent, climatic zone. Specifically, this meta-analysis (1) indicates that the positive impact of afforestation on SOC stocks is more pronounced in cropland soils than in pastures or natural grasslands; (2) suggests that broadleaf tree species have a greater capacity to accumulate SOC than coniferous species; (3) underscores that afforestation using pine species does not result in a net loss of the whole soil-profile carbon stocks compared with initial values (agricultural soil) when the surface organic layer is included in the accounting; (4) demonstrates that clay-rich soils (> 33%) have a greater capacity to accumulate SOC than soils with a lower clay content (< 33%); (5) indicates that minimizing preplanting disturbances may increase the rate at which SOC stocks are replenished; and (6) suggests that afforestation carried out in the boreal climate zone results in small SOC losses compared with other climate zones, probably because trees grow more slowly under these conditions, although this does not rule out gains over time after the conversion. This study also highlights the importance of the methodological approach used when developing the sampling design, especially the inclusion of the organic layer in the accounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock farming systems are major sources of trace gases contributing to emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG) nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4), i.e. N2O accounts for 10% and CH4 for 30% of the anthropogenic contributions to net global warming. This paper presents scenario assessments of whole-system effects of technologies for reducing GHG emissions from livestock model farms using slurry-based manure management. Changes in housing and storage practice, mechanical separation, and incineration of the solid fraction derived from separation were evaluated in scenarios for Sweden, Denmark, France, and Italy. The results demonstrated that changes in manure management can induce significant changes in CH4 and N2O emissions and carbon sequestration, and that the effect of introducing environmental technologies may vary significantly with livestock farming practice and interact with climatic conditions. Shortening the in-house manure storage time reduced GHG emissions by 0–40%. The largest GHG reductions of 49 to, in one case, 82% were obtained with a combination of slurry separation and incineration, the latter process contributing to a positive GHG balance of the system by substituting fossil fuels. The amount and composition of volatile solids (VS) and nitrogen pools were main drivers in the calculations performed, and requirements to improve the assessment of VS composition and turnover during storage and in the field were identified. Nevertheless, the results clearly showed that GHG emission estimates will be unrealistic, if the assumed manure management or climatic conditions do not properly represent a given country or region. The results also showed that the mitigation potential of specific manure management strategies and technologies varied depending on current management and climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lichens are thought to be sensitive indicators of global warming, as the spread of several thermophilous epiphytes in north-western Central Europe has been attributed to late 20th century warming. In the present paper, the potential contribution of late 20th century warming to the decline of arctic-alpine and boreal-montane lichen species is analyzed. Relevant ecological groups of lichens include terricolous heathland species, saxicolous species of exposed rock outcrops and boulder fields as well as epiphytes of mountain forests. These three groups of lichens experienced significant declines before the onset of late 20th century warming in the 1970s. These declines can be attributed to the abandonment of traditional land use systems in the case of the heathland lichens, increased recreational use of the exposed summits usually inhabited by cold-tolerant saxicolous lichens, and to high atmospheric SO2 levels in the mid-20th century, but are probably not directly connected to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is the major and most urgent global environmental issue. Australia is already experiencing climate change as evidenced by higher temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts. These impacts are compounded by increasing land use pressures on natural resources and native ecosystems. This paper provides a synthesis of the interactions, feedbacks and risks of natural climate variability, climate change and land use/land cover change (LUCC) impacting on the Australian continent and how they vary regionally. We review evidence of climate change and underlying processes resulting from interactions between global warming caused by increased concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases and modification of the land surface. The consequences of ignoring the effect of LUCC on current and future droughts in Australia could have catastrophic consequences for the nation's environment, economy and communities. We highlight the need for more integrated, long-term and adaptive policies and regional natural resource management strategies that restore the beneficial feedbacks between native vegetation cover and local-regional climate, to help ameliorate the impact of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some expected changes in climate resulting from human greenhouse gas emissions are clear and well documented, but others may be harder to predict because they involve extreme weather events or heretofore unusual combinations of weather patterns. One recent example of unusual weather that may become more frequent with climate change occurred in early spring 2007 when a large Arctic air mass moved into the eastern United States following a very warm late winter. In this paper, we document effects of this freeze event on Walker Branch, a well-studied stream ecosystem in eastern Tennessee. The 2007 spring freeze killed newly grown leaf tissues in the forest canopy, dramatically increasing the amount of light reaching the stream. Light levels at the stream surface were sustained at levels considerably above those normal for the late spring and summer months due to the incomplete recovery of canopy leaf area. Increased light levels caused a cascade of ecological effects in the stream beginning with considerably higher (two–three times) rates of gross primary production (GPP) during the late spring and summer months when normally low light levels severely limit stream GPP. Higher rates of stream GPP in turn resulted in higher rates of nitrate (NO3−) uptake by the autotrophic community and lower NO3− concentrations in stream water. Higher rates of stream GPP in summer also resulted in higher growth rates of a dominant herbivore, the snail Elimia clavaeformis. Typically, during summer months net NO3− uptake and snail growth rates are zero to negative; however, in 2007 uptake and growth were maintained at moderate levels. These results show how changes in forest vegetation phenology can have dramatic effects on stream productivity at multiple trophic levels and on nutrient cycling as a result of tight coupling of forest and stream ecosystems. Thus, climate change-induced changes in canopy structure and phenology may lead to large effects on stream ecosystems in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent accelerated decay of discontinuous permafrost at the Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden has been attributed to increased temperature and snow depth, and has caused expansion of wet minerotrophic areas leading to significant changes in carbon cycling in the mire. In order to track these changes through time and evaluate potential forcing mechanisms, this paper analyses a peat succession and a lake sediment sequence from within the mire, providing a record for the last 100 years, and compares these with monitored climate and active layer thickness data. The peat core was analysed for testate amoebae to reconstruct changes in peatland surface moisture conditions and water table fluctuations. The lake sediment core was analysed by near infrared spectroscopy to infer changes in the total organic carbon (TOC) concentration of the lake-water, and changes in δ13C and C, N and δ15N to track changes in the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) pool and the influence of diagenetic effects on sediment organic matter, respectively. Results showed that major shifts towards increased peat surface moisture and TOC concentration of the lake-water occurred around 1980, one to two decades earlier than a temperature driven increase in active layer thickness. Comparison with monitored temperature and precipitation from a nearby climate station indicates that this change in peat surface moisture is related to June–September (JJAS) precipitation and that the increase in lake-water TOC concentration reflects an increase in total annual precipitation. A significant depletion in 13C of sediment organic matter in the early 1980s probably reflects the effect of a single or a few consecutive years with anomalously high summer precipitation, resulting in elevated DIC content of the lake water, predominantly originating from increased export and subsequent respiration of organic carbon from the mire. Based on these results, it was not possible to link proxy data obtained on peat and lake-sediment records directly to permafrost decay. Instead our data indicate that increased precipitation and anomalously high rainfall during summers had a significant impact on the mire and the adjacent lake ecosystem. We therefore propose that effects of increased precipitation should be considered when evaluating potential forcing mechanisms of recent changes in carbon cycling in the subarctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global environmental change, related to climate change and the deposition of airborne N-containing contaminants, has already resulted in shifts in plant community composition among plant functional types in Arctic and temperate alpine regions. In this paper, we review how key ecosystem processes will be altered by these transformations, the complex biological cascades and feedbacks that might result, and some of the potential broader consequences for the earth system. Firstly, we consider how patterns of growth and allocation, and nutrient uptake, will be altered by the shifts in plant dominance. The ways in which these changes may disproportionately affect the consumer communities, and rates of decomposition, are then discussed. We show that the occurrence of a broad spectrum of plant growth forms in these regions (from cryptogams to deciduous and evergreen dwarf shrubs, graminoids and forbs), together with hypothesized low functional redundancy, will mean that shifts in plant dominance result in a complex series of biotic cascades, couplings and feedbacks which are supplemental to the direct responses of ecosystem components to the primary global change drivers. The nature of these complex interactions is highlighted using the example of the climate-driven increase in shrub cover in low-Arctic tundra, and the contrasting transformations in plant functional composition in mid-latitude alpine systems. Finally, the potential effects of the transformations on ecosystem properties and processes that link with the earth system are reviewed. We conclude that the effects of global change on these ecosystems, and potential climate-change feedbacks, cannot be predicted from simple empirical relationships between processes and driving variables. Rather, the effects of changes in species distributions and dominances on key ecosystem processes and properties must also be considered, based upon best estimates of the trajectories of key transformations, their magnitude and rates of change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of regional and national topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) stock change may help evaluating the soil role in mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through carbon (C) sequestration in soils. However, understanding of the exact mitigation role is often constrained by the uncertainty of the stock estimation associated with different methodologies. In this paper, a soil database of topsoil (0–20 cm) SOC measurements of Jiangsu Province, China, obtained from a soil survey in 1982, and from a geological survey in 2004, was used to analyze the variability of topsoil SOC among soil groups and among soil regions, and to estimate the change in SOC stocks that have occurred in the province over the last two decades. The soil survey data was obtained from measurements of 662 690 randomly collected samples, while the geological survey data was from 24 167 samples taken using a 2 km × 2 km grid. Statistical analysis was conducted on SOC values for 1982 and 2004 for different categories of soil groups, soil regions, and administrative municipalities, respectively. Topsoil SOC storage was then calculated and the provincial topsoil SOC stock was estimated for each sampling time. There were remarkable differences in SOC levels between soil groups and soil regions and different municipalities. The grid sampling with the geological survey in 2004 yielded smaller variability of topsoil SOC averages, both with soil groups and with soil spatial distribution than the random sampling method used in 1982. Variation of SOC was greater with soil groups than with soil regions in both sampling times, although it was less variable across soil taxonomic categories than within a spatial category. Little variance of the SOC level with soil groups could be explained by clay content. However, the prevalence of paddy fields in the total cropland area governed the regional and municipal average SOC levels. The average provincial topsoil SOC content increased from 9.45 g kg−1 in 1982 to 10.9 g kg−1 in 2004, and the total provincial topsoil SOC stock was enhanced from 149.0±58.1 Tg C in 1982 to 173.2±51.4 Tg C in 2004, corresponding to a provincial average SOC sequestration rate of 0.16±0.09 t C ha−1 yr−1. The SOC sequestration trend for the last two decades could be, in part, attributed to the enhanced agricultural production, symbolized by the grain yield per hectare. The results of SOC stock changes suggest a significant C sequestration in soils of Jiangsu, China, during 1980–2000, with paddy management playing an important role in regional SOC storage and sequestration capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper in this journal, Bradshaw and colleagues analyse country statistics on flood characteristics, land cover and land cover change, and conclude that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. The study addresses an important and long-standing question, but we identify important flaws. Principal among these are difficulties in interpreting country statistics and the correlation between population and floods. We review current knowledge, which suggests that the removal of trees does not affect large flood events, although associated landscape changes can under some circumstances. Reanalysis of the data analysed by Bradshaw and colleagues shows that population density alone already explains up to 83% of the variation in reported flood occurrences, considerably more than forest cover or deforestation (<10%). Feasible explanations for this statistical finding – whether spurious or causative – are not difficult to conceive. We, therefore, consider the conclusion of Bradshaw and colleagues to be unsupported. However, their study is a valuable first step to show how these or similar flood data might be used to further explore the relationship between land cover and flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an approach to estimate gross primary production (GPP) using a remotely sensed biophysical vegetation product (fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, FAPAR) from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) in conjunction with GPP estimates from eddy covariance measurement towers in Europe. By analysing the relationship between the cumulative growing season FAPAR and annual GPP by vegetation type, we find that the former can be used to accurately predict the latter. The root mean square error of prediction is of the order of 250 gC m−2 yr−1. The cumulative growing season FAPAR integrates over a number of effects relevant for GPP such as the length of the growing season, the vegetation's response to environmental conditions and the amount of light harvested that is available for photosynthesis. We corroborate the proposed GPP estimate (noted FAPAR-based productivity assessment+land cover, FPA+LC) on the continental scale with results from the MOD17+radiation-use efficiency model, an artificial neural network up-scaling approach (ANN) and the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land biosphere model (LPJmL). The closest agreement of the mean spatial GPP pattern among the four models is between FPA+LC and ANN ( R2= 0.74). At least some of the discrepancy between FPA-LC and the other models result from biases of meteorological forcing fields for MOD17+, ANN and LPJmL. Our analysis further implies that meteorological information is to a large degree redundant for GPP estimation when using the JRC-FAPAR. A major advantage of the FPA+LC approach presented in this paper lies in its simplicity and that it requires no additional meteorological input driver data that commonly introduce substantial uncertainty. We find that results from different data-oriented models may be robust enough to evaluate process-oriented models regarding the mean spatial pattern of GPP, while there is too little consensus among the diagnostic models for such purpose regarding inter-annual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last 100 years or so, desertification, degradation, and woody plant encroachment have altered huge tracts of semiarid rangelands. It is expected that the changes thus brought about significantly affect water balance in these regions; and in fact, at the headwater-catchment and smaller scales, such effects are reasonably well documented. For larger scales, however, there is surprisingly little documentation of hydrological change. In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which streamflow from large rangeland watersheds in central Texas has changed concurrent with the dramatic shifts in vegetation cover (transition from pristine prairie to degraded grassland to woodland/savanna) that have taken place during the last century. Our study focused on the three watersheds that supply the major tributaries of the Concho River – those of the North Concho (3279 km2), the Middle Concho (5398 km2), and the South Concho (1070 km2). Using data from the period of record (1926–2005), we found that annual streamflow for the North Concho decreased by about 70% between 1960 and 2005. Not only did we find no downtrend in precipitation that might explain this reduced flow, we found no corresponding change in annual streamflow for the other two watersheds (which have more karst parent material). When we analyzed trends in baseflow (contributions from groundwater) and stormflow (runoff events linked to specific precipitation events), however, we found that in spite of large increases in woody plants, baseflow for all the watersheds has remained essentially consistent or has increased slightly since 1960. At the same time, stormflows were of smaller magnitude. Animal numbers have declined precipitously in the latter half of the last century. We suggest that these lower stormflows result from generally higher soil infiltrability due to generally improving range condition. There is no indication that the decline in streamflow is related to diminished groundwater flows caused by extraction of subsurface water by woody plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared to other ecosystems, estuarine ecosystems have distinct carbon flux dynamics – the lateral carbon flux incurred by tidal activities, and methane generation under the anaerobic conditions of wetland soils. The conventional estimation of gross primary production (GPP) based on the light use efficiency (LUE) model used for non-wetland terrestrial ecosystems, therefore, cannot be applied directly to estuarine wetland ecosystems. In this paper, we estimated the 2005's annual carbon budget of an estuarine wetland on Chongming Island, Shanghai, and partitioned the losses of carbon due to lateral tidal dynamics and anaerobic methane production using an innovative technique. The average GPP calculated from eddy covariance between March and November was 261.79 μmol m−2 day−1, whereas that from the LUE model was 58.84 μmol m−2 day−1. The correlation coefficient between GPP simulated from the LUE model and that calculated from flux tower data was low in the growing season ( R2=0.55). We hypothesized that tidal activities and uncounted methane release were responsible for the difference, which can be predicted from measurements of remote sensing products such as land surface water index (LSWI), evapotranspiration (ET), and tide height (TH). We developed an integrated GPP model by combining the LUE model and an autoregression model to estimate carbon budget. The average GPP from the modified model increased to 263.38 μmol m−2 day−1, and R2 for the correlation between the simulated and calculated data increased to 0.88, demonstrating the potential of our technique for GPP estimation and quantification of seasonal variation in estuarine ecosystems. The approach developed in this study has great potential for correcting unavoidable errors when estimating carbon budget of coastal wetlands. Furthermore, global warming is expected to accelerate sea level rise, which may enhance the effect of tidal activities and increase the difficulty in estimating coastal carbon budgets using conventional methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a methodology for comparing global land cover maps that allows for differences in legend definitions between products to be taken into account. The legends of the two maps are first reconciled by creating a legend lookup table that shows how the legends map onto one another. Where there is overlap, the specific definitions for each legend class are used to calculate the degree of overlap between legend classes. In this way, one-to-many mappings are accounted for unlike in most methods where the legend definitions are often forced into place. Another advantage over previous map comparison methods is that application-specific requirements are captured using expert input, whereby the user rates the importance of disagreement between different legend classes based on the needs of the application. This user-defined matrix in conjunction with the degree of overlap between legend classes is applied on a pixel-by-pixel basis to create maps of spatial disagreement and uncertainty. The user can then highlight the areas of highest thematic uncertainty and disagreement between the different land cover maps allowing for areas that require further detailed examination to be readily identified. It would also be possible for several users to input their knowledge into the process, leading to a potentially more robust comparison of land cover products. The methodology of map comparison is illustrated using different land cover products including Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC-2000) and the MODIS land cover data set. Two diverse applications are provided including the estimation of global forest cover and monitoring of agricultural land. In the case of global forest cover, an example was provided for Columbia, which showed that the MODIS land cover map overestimates forest cover in comparison with the GLC-2000. The agricultural example, on the other hand, served to illustrate that for Sudan, MODIS tends to underestimate crop areas while GLC-2000 overestimates them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]