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A soil-plant-atmosphere model was used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) of a tropical savanna in Australia. This paper describes model modifications required to simulate the substantial C4 grass understory together with C3 trees. The model was further improved to include a seasonal distribution of leaf area and foliar nitrogen through 10 canopy layers. Model outputs were compared with a 5-year eddy covariance dataset. Adding the C4 photosynthesis component improved the model efficiency and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) for total ecosystem GPP by better emulating annual peaks and troughs in GPP across wet and dry seasons. The C4 photosynthesis component had minimal impact on modelled values of ET. Outputs of GPP from the modified model agreed well with measured values, explaining between 79% and 90% of the variance and having a low RMSE (0.003-0.281 g C m−2 day−1). Approximately, 40% of total annual GPP was contributed by C4 grasses. Total (trees and grasses) wet season GPP was approximately 75-80% of total annual GPP. Light-use efficiency (LUE) was largest for the wet season and smallest in the dry season and C4 LUE was larger than that of the trees. A sensitivity analysis of GPP revealed that daily GPP was most sensitive to changes in leaf area index (LAI) and foliar nitrogen (Nf) and relatively insensitive to changes in maximum carboxylation rate ( Vcmax), maximum electron transport rate ( Jmax) and minimum leaf water potential ( ψmin). The modified model was also able to represent daily and seasonal patterns in ET, (explaining 68-81% of variance) with a low RMSE (0.038-0.19 mm day−1). Current values of Nf, LAI and other parameters appear to be colimiting for maximizing GPP. By manipulating LAI and soil moisture content inputs, we show that modelled GPP is limited by light interception rather than water availability at this site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is the major and most urgent global environmental issue. Australia is already experiencing climate change as evidenced by higher temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts. These impacts are compounded by increasing land use pressures on natural resources and native ecosystems. This paper provides a synthesis of the interactions, feedbacks and risks of natural climate variability, climate change and land use/land cover change (LUCC) impacting on the Australian continent and how they vary regionally. We review evidence of climate change and underlying processes resulting from interactions between global warming caused by increased concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases and modification of the land surface. The consequences of ignoring the effect of LUCC on current and future droughts in Australia could have catastrophic consequences for the nation's environment, economy and communities. We highlight the need for more integrated, long-term and adaptive policies and regional natural resource management strategies that restore the beneficial feedbacks between native vegetation cover and local-regional climate, to help ameliorate the impact of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is leading to redistribution of marine species and altering ecosystem dynamics. Given recent poleward range extension of the barrens-forming sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) from mainland Australia to Tasmania, there is a need to understand the population dynamics of this ecologically important species in the Tasmanian environment. This paper informs possible population dynamics of C. rodgersii in Tasmania by examining its reproductive ecology in this new environment. Reproductive periodicity (gonad index and propensity to spawn) was assessed bimonthly over 18 months at four sites in eastern Tasmania spanning ∼2° in latitude. At all sites, C. rodgersii displayed a strong seasonal cycle in gonad production with major spawning occurring in winter (∼August) at minimum annual water temperature. Gametes from Tasmanian C. rodgersii were viable as determined by fertilization and early development trials. However, development to the two-arm stage at ∼3 weeks was strongly dependent on water temperature across the 8–20 °C temperature range, with poor development occurring below 12 °C. The range of temperatures tolerated by Tasmanian C. rodgersii larvae was similar to that of larvae from its native New South Wales range, indicating that this species has not undergone an adaptive shift to the cooler Tasmanian environment. There was also no evidence for an adaptive shift in reproductive phenology. Importantly, coastal water temperatures in eastern Tasmania during the peak spawning in August fluctuate about the 12 °C larval development threshold. Recent warming of the eastern Tasmanian coast and further warming predicted by global climate change will result in an environment increasingly favourable for the reproduction and development of C. rodgersii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources is one of the most critical issues facing the world in the next few decades. In particular, there is a need to quantify the risks associated with maintaining the security of resource quantity and quality, and to assess the effectiveness of potential management strategies. In this paper, we assess the impacts of climate variability and change on one aspect of river health. A simple model of Anabaena algal bloom occurrence at a weir pool in the lower Murrumbidgee River, Australia, has been coupled to a catchment model that is used to simulate streamflow, irrigation demand and diversions, dam water storage and releases, and decision-making by both irrigators and managers. Long-term climate data are obtained from a statistical downscaling algorithm, which, when applied to global climate model predictions can provide climate data suitable for driving the coupled model under a variety of climatic scenarios. The coupled model is then used to assess the impact of climate variability and projected climate change on the frequency, duration and magnitude of Anabaena blooms. The impact of two management strategies for bloom control are also assessed and it is shown that even a single, quite simple, resource-neutral, adaptive management strategy has the potential to substantially reduce the occurrence and impact of algal blooms and to more than compensate for the deleterious impacts of climate change. This result supports the notion that planning for the future can lead to positive outcomes in the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on biodiversity is key to managing their impacts. Stressor interactions are often studied using an additive/antagonistic/synergistic typology, aimed at identifying situations where individual stressor effects are reduced or amplified when they act in combination. Here, we analysed variation in the family richness of stream macroinvertebrates in the groups Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) at 4658 sites spanning a 32° latitudinal range in eastern Australia in relation to two largely human‐induced stressors, salinity and turbidity, and two environmental gradients, temperature and slope. The cumulative and interactive effect of salinity and turbidity on EPT family richness varied across the landscape and by habitat (edge or riffle) such that we observed additive, antagonistic and synergistic outcomes depending on the environmental context. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the consistency of multiple stressor impacts, which will involve higher‐order interactions between multiple stressors and environmental factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural practices have created tens of millions of small artificial water bodies ("farm dams" or "agricultural ponds") to provide water for domestic livestock worldwide. Among freshwater ecosystems, farm dams have some of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per m2 due to fertilizer and manure run‐off boosting methane production—an extremely potent GHG. However, management strategies to mitigate the substantial emissions from millions of farm dams remain unexplored. We tested the hypothesis that installing fences to exclude livestock could reduce nutrients, improve water quality, and lower aquatic GHG emissions. We established a large‐scale experiment spanning 400 km across south‐eastern Australia where we compared unfenced (N = 33) and fenced farm dams (N = 31) within 17 livestock farms. Fenced farm dams recorded 32% less dissolved nitrogen, 39% less dissolved phosphorus, 22% more dissolved oxygen, and produced 56% less diffusive methane emissions than unfenced dams. We found no effect of farm dam management on diffusive carbon dioxide emissions and on the organic carbon in the soil. Dissolved oxygen was the most important variable explaining changes in carbon fluxes across dams, whereby doubling dissolved oxygen from 5 to 10 mg L−1 led to a 74% decrease in methane fluxes, a 124% decrease in carbon dioxide fluxes, and a 96% decrease in CO2‐eq (CH4 + CO2) fluxes. Dams with very high dissolved oxygen (>10 mg L−1) showed a switch from positive to negative CO2‐eq. (CO2 + CH4) fluxes (i.e., negative radiative balance), indicating a positive contribution to reduce atmospheric warming. Our results demonstrate that simple management actions can dramatically improve water quality and decrease methane emissions while contributing to more productive and sustainable farming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2020, the Australian and New Zealand flux research and monitoring network, OzFlux, celebrated its 20th anniversary by reflecting on the lessons learned through two decades of ecosystem studies on global change biology. OzFlux is a network not only for ecosystem researchers, but also for those 'next users' of the knowledge, information and data that such networks provide. Here, we focus on eight lessons across topics of climate change and variability, disturbance and resilience, drought and heat stress and synergies with remote sensing and modelling. In distilling the key lessons learned, we also identify where further research is needed to fill knowledge gaps and improve the utility and relevance of the outputs from OzFlux. Extreme climate variability across Australia and New Zealand (droughts and flooding rains) provides a natural laboratory for a global understanding of ecosystems in this time of accelerating climate change. As evidence of worsening global fire risk emerges, the natural ability of these ecosystems to recover from disturbances, such as fire and cyclones, provides lessons on adaptation and resilience to disturbance. Drought and heatwaves are common occurrences across large parts of the region and can tip an ecosystem's carbon budget from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source. Despite such responses to stress, ecosystems at OzFlux sites show their resilience to climate variability by rapidly pivoting back to a strong carbon sink upon the return of favourable conditions. Located in under‐represented areas, OzFlux data have the potential for reducing uncertainties in global remote sensing products, and these data provide several opportunities to develop new theories and improve our ecosystem models. The accumulated impacts of these lessons over the last 20 years highlights the value of long‐term flux observations for natural and managed systems. A future vision for OzFlux includes ongoing and newly developed synergies with ecophysiologists, ecologists, geologists, remote sensors and modellers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing severity and frequency of drought is predicted for large portions of the terrestrial biosphere, with major impacts already documented in wet tropical forests. Using a 4-year rainfall exclusion experiment in the Daintree Rainforest in northeast Australia, we examined canopy tree responses to reduced precipitation and soil water availability by quantifying seasonal changes in plant hydraulic and carbon traits for 11 tree species between control and drought treatments. Even with reduced soil volumetric water content in the upper 1 m of soil in the drought treatment, we found no significant difference between treatments for predawn and midday leaf water potential, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, foliar stable carbon isotope composition, leaf mass per area, turgor loss point, xylem vessel anatomy, or leaf and stem nonstructural carbohydrates. While empirical measurements of aboveground traits revealed homeostatic maintenance of plant water status and traits in response to reduced soil moisture, modeled belowground dynamics revealed that trees in the drought treatment shifted the depth from which water was acquired to deeper soil layers. These findings reveal that belowground acclimation of tree water uptake depth may buffer tropical rainforests from more severe droughts that may arise in future with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions across the globe are shifting to more arid climates. For shallow lakes, decreasing rainfall volume and timing, changing regional wind patterns and increased evaporation rates alter water regimes so that dry periods occur more frequently and for longer. Drier conditions may affect fauna directly and indirectly through altered physicochemical conditions in lakes. Although many studies have predicted negative effects of such changes on aquatic biodiversity, empirical studies demonstrating these effects are rare. Global warming has caused severe climatic drying in southwestern Australia since the 1970s, so we aimed to determine whether lakes in this region showed impacts on lake hydroperiod, water quality, and α, β and γ diversity of lake invertebrates from 1998 to 2011. Seventeen lakes across a range of salinities were sampled biennially in spring in the Wheatbelt and Great Southern regions of Western Australia. Multivariate analyses were used to identify changes in α, β and γ diversity and examine patterns in physicochemical data. Salinity and average rainfall partially explained patterns in invertebrate richness and assemblage composition. Climatic drying was associated with significant declines in lake depth, increased frequency of dry periods, and reduced α and γ diversity (γ declined from ~300 to ~100 taxa from 1998 to 2011 in the 17 wetlands). In contrast, β diversity remained consistently high, because each lake retained a distinct fauna. Mean α diversity per‐lake declined both in lakes that dried and lakes that did not dry out, but lakes which retained a greater proportion of their maximum depth retained more α diversity. Accumulated losses in α diversity caused the decline in γ diversity likely through shrinking habitat area, fewer stepping stones for dispersal and loss of specific habitat types. Biodiversity loss is thus likely from lakes in drying regions globally. Management actions will need to sustain water depth in lakes to prevent biodiversity loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine species are declining at an unprecedented rate, catalyzing many nations to adopt conservation and management targets within their jurisdictions. However, marine species and the biophysical processes that sustain them are naive to international borders. An understanding of the prevalence of cross‐border species distributions is important for informing high‐level conservation strategies, such as bilateral or regional agreements. Here, we examined 28,252 distribution maps to determine the number and locations of transboundary marine plants and animals. More than 90% of species have ranges spanning at least two jurisdictions, with 58% covering more than 10 jurisdictions. All jurisdictions have at least one transboundary species, with the highest concentrations of transboundary species in the USA, Australia, Indonesia, and the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction. Distributions of mapped biodiversity indicate that overcoming the challenges of multinational governance is critical for a much wider suite of species than migratory megavertebrates and commercially exploited fish stocks—the groups that have received the vast majority of multinational management attention. To effectively protect marine biodiversity, international governance mechanisms (particularly those related to the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Convention on Migratory Species, and Regional Seas Organizations) must be expanded to promote multinational conservation planning, and complimented by a holistic governance framework for biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than 10% of Australia's 49 M ha of grassland is considered degraded, prompting widespread interest in the management of these ecosystems to increase soil carbon (C) sequestration—with an emphasis on long‐lived C storage. We know that management practices that increase plant biomass also increase C inputs to the soil, but we lack a quantitative understanding of the fate of soil C inputs into different soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions that have fundamentally different formation pathways and persistence in the soil. Our understanding of the factors that constrain SOC formation in these fractions is also limited, particularly within tropical climates. We used isotopically labelled residue (13C) to determine the fate of residue C inputs into short‐lived particulate organic matter (POM) and more persistent mineral‐associated organic matter (MAOM) across a broad climatic gradient (ΔMAT 10°C) with varying soil properties. Climate was the primary driver of aboveground residue mass loss which corresponded to higher residue‐derived POM formation. In contrast, MAOM formation efficiency was constrained by soil properties. The differential controls on POM and MAOM formation highlight that a targeted approach to grassland restoration is required; we must identify priority regions for improved grazing management in soils that have a relatively high silt+clay content and cation exchange capacity, with a low C saturation in the silt+clay fraction to deliver long‐term SOC sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gross primary productivity (GPP) of wooded ecosystems (forests and savannas) is central to the global carbon cycle, comprising 67%–75% of total global terrestrial GPP. Climate change may alter this flux by increasing the frequency of temperatures beyond the thermal optimum of GPP (Topt). We examined the relationship between GPP and air temperature (Ta) in 17 wooded ecosystems dominated by a single plant functional type (broadleaf evergreen trees) occurring over a broad climatic gradient encompassing five ecoregions across Australia ranging from tropical in the north to Mediterranean and temperate in the south. We applied a novel boundary‐line analysis to eddy covariance flux observations to (a) derive ecosystem GPP–Ta relationships and Topt (including seasonal analyses for five tropical savannas); (b) quantitatively and qualitatively assess GPP–Ta relationships within and among ecoregions; (c) examine the relationship between Topt and mean daytime air temperature (MDTa) across all ecosystems; and (d) examine how down‐welling short‐wave radiation (Fsd) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) influence the GPP–Ta relationship. GPP–Ta relationships were convex parabolas with narrow curves in tropical forests, tropical savannas (wet season), and temperate forests, and wider curves in temperate woodlands, Mediterranean woodlands, and tropical savannas (dry season). Ecosystem Topt ranged from 15℃ (temperate forest) to 32℃ (tropical savanna—wet and dry seasons). The shape of GPP–Ta curves was largely determined by daytime Ta range, MDTa, and maximum GPP with the upslope influenced by Fsd and the downslope influenced by VPD. Across all ecosystems, there was a strong positive linear relationship between Topt and MDTa (Adjusted R2: 0.81; Slope: 1.08) with Topt exceeding MDTa by >1℃ at all but two sites. We conclude that ecosystem GPP has adjusted to local MDTa within Australian broadleaf evergreen forests and that GPP is buffered against small Ta increases in the majority of these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing climate change risks requires collaboration and engagement across all sectors of society. In particular, effective partnerships are needed between research scientists producing new knowledge, policy‐makers and practitioners who apply conservation actions on the ground. We describe the implementation of a model for increasing the application and useability of biodiversity research in climate adaptation policy and practice. The focus of the program was to increase the ability of a state government agency and natural resource practitioners in Australia to manage and protect biodiversity in a changing climate. The model comprised a five‐stage process for enhancing impact (i) initiation of research projects that addressed priority conservation policy and management issues; (ii) co‐design of the research using a collaborative approach involving multiple stakeholders; (iii) implementation of the research and design of decision tools and web‐based resources; (iv) collaborative dissemination of the tools and resources via government and community working groups; and (v) evaluation of research impact. We report on the model development and implementation, and critically reflect on the model's impact. We share the lessons learnt from the challenges of operating within a stakeholder group with diverse objectives and criteria for success, and provide a template for creating an environmental research program with real world impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine reserves are a key tool for the conservation of marine biodiversity, yet only ~2.5% of the world's oceans are protected. The integration of marine reserves into connected networks representing all habitats has been encouraged by international agreements, yet the benefits of this design has not been tested empirically. Australia has one of the largest systems of marine reserves, providing a rare opportunity to assess how connectivity influences conservation success. An Australia‐wide dataset was collected using baited remote underwater video systems deployed across a depth range from 0 to 100 m to assess the effectiveness of marine reserves for protecting teleosts subject to commercial and recreational fishing. A meta‐analytical comparison of 73 fished species within 91 marine reserves found that, on average, marine reserves had 28% greater abundance and 53% greater biomass of fished species compared to adjacent areas open to fishing. However, benefits of protection were not observed across all reserves (heterogeneity), so full subsets generalized additive modelling was used to consider factors that influence marine reserve effectiveness, including distance‐based and ecological metrics of connectivity among reserves. Our results suggest that increased connectivity and depth improve the aforementioned marine reserve benefits and that these factors should be considered to optimize such benefits over time. We provide important guidance on factors to consider when implementing marine reserves for the purpose of increasing the abundance and size of fished species, given the expected increase in coverage globally. We show that marine reserves that are highly protected (no‐take) and designed to optimize connectivity, size and depth range can provide an effective conservation strategy for fished species in temperate and tropical waters within an overarching marine biodiversity conservation framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems are being altered by rapid and interacting changes in natural processes and anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. Uncertainty in historical, current and future effectiveness of actions hampers decisions about how to mitigate changes to prevent biodiversity loss and species extinctions. Research in resource management, agriculture and health indicates that forecasts predicting the effects of near‐term or seasonal environmental conditions on management greatly improve outcomes. Such forecasts help resolve uncertainties about when and how to operationalize management. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near‐term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia, a nation with one of the highest recent extinction rates across the globe. We found that forecasts focused on economic objectives (e.g. fisheries management) predict on significantly shorter timelines and answer a broader range of management questions than forecasts focused on biodiversity conservation. We then evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near‐term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. Depending on the action, between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near‐term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Disease control, species translocation/reintroduction and habitat restoration actions were most frequently impacted, and negative impacts such as increased species mortality and reduced recruitment were more likely than positive impacts. Drought or dry conditions, and rainfall, were the most frequently reported weather impacts, indicating that near‐term forecasts predicting the effects of low or excessive rainfall on management outcomes are likely to have the greatest benefits. Across the world, many regions are, like Australia, becoming warmer and drier, or experiencing more extreme rainfall events. Informing conservation decisions with near‐term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South‐East Australia has recently been subjected to two of the worst droughts in the historical record (Millennium Drought, 2000–2009 and Big Dry, 2017–2019). Unfortunately, a lack of forest monitoring has made it difficult to determine whether widespread tree mortality has resulted from these droughts. Anecdotal observations suggest the Big Dry may have led to more significant tree mortality than the Millennium drought. Critically, to be able to robustly project future expected climate change effects on Australian vegetation, we need to assess the vulnerability of Australian trees to drought. Here we implemented a model of plant hydraulics into the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model. We parameterized the drought response behaviour of five broad vegetation types, based on a common garden dry‐down experiment with species originating across a rainfall gradient (188–1,125 mm/year) across South‐East Australia. The new hydraulics model significantly improved (~35%–45% reduction in root mean square error) CABLE's previous predictions of latent heat fluxes during periods of water stress at two eddy covariance sites in Australia. Landscape‐scale predictions of the greatest percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC) of about 40%–60%, were broadly consistent with satellite estimates of regions of the greatest change in both droughts. In neither drought did CABLE predict that trees would have reached critical PLC in widespread areas (i.e. it projected a low mortality risk), although the model highlighted critical levels near the desert regions of South‐East Australia where few trees live. Overall, our experimentally constrained model results imply significant resilience to drought conferred by hydraulic function, but also highlight critical data and scientific gaps. Our approach presents a promising avenue to integrate experimental data and make regional‐scale predictions of potential drought‐induced hydraulic failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that can damage coral reef communities. Recovery typically requires up to a decade, driving the trajectory of coral community structure. Coral reefs have evolved over millennia with cyclones. Increasingly, however, processes of recovery are interrupted and compromised by additional pressures (thermal stress, pollution, diseases, predators). Understanding how cyclones interact with other pressures to threaten coral reefs underpins spatial prioritization of conservation and management interventions. Models that simulate coral responses to cumulative pressures often assume that the worst cyclone wave damage occurs within ~100 km of the track. However, we show major coral loss at exposed sites up to 800 km from a cyclone that was both strong (high sustained wind speeds >=33 m/s) and big (widespread circulation >~300 km), using numerical wave models and field data from northwest Australia. We then calculate the return time of big and strong cyclones, big cyclones of any strength and strong cyclones of any size, for each of 150 coral reef ecoregions using a global data set of past cyclones from 1985 to 2015. For the coral ecoregions that regularly were exposed to cyclones during that time, we find that 75% of them were exposed to at least one cyclone that was both big and strong. Return intervals of big and strong cyclones are already less than 5 years for 13 ecoregions, primarily in the cyclone‐prone NW Pacific, and less than 10 years for an additional 14 ecoregions. We identify ecoregions likely at higher risk in future given projected changes in cyclone activity. Robust quantification of the spatial distribution of likely cyclone wave damage is vital not only for understanding past coral response to pressures, but also for predicting how this may change as the climate continues to warm and the relative frequency of the strongest cyclones rises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal and intertidal habitats are at the forefront of anthropogenic influence and environmental change. The species occupying these habitats are adapted to a world of extremes, which may render them robust to the changing climate or more vulnerable if they are at their physiological limits. We characterized the diurnal, seasonal and interannual patterns of flux in biogeochemistry across an intertidal gradient on a temperate sandstone platform in eastern Australia over 6 years (2009–2015) and present a synthesis of our current understanding of this habitat in context with global change. We used rock pools as natural mesocosms to determine biogeochemistry dynamics and patterns of eco‐stress experienced by resident biota. In situ measurements and discrete water samples were collected night and day during neap low tide events to capture diurnal biogeochemistry cycles. Calculation of pHT using total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) revealed that the mid‐intertidal habitat exhibited the greatest flux over the years (pHT 7.52–8.87), and over a single tidal cycle (1.11 pHT units), while the low‐intertidal (pHT 7.82–8.30) and subtidal (pHT 7.87–8.30) were less variable. Temperature flux was also greatest in the mid‐intertidal (8.0–34.5°C) and over a single tidal event (14°C range), as typical of temperate rocky shores. Mean TA and DIC increased at night and decreased during the day, with the most extreme conditions measured in the mid‐intertidal owing to prolonged emersion periods. Temporal sampling revealed that net ecosystem calcification and production were highest during the day and lowest at night, particularly in the mid‐intertidal. Characterization of biogeochemical fluctuations in a world of extremes demonstrates the variable conditions that intertidal biota routinely experience and highlight potential microhabitat‐specific vulnerabilities and climate change refugia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing the number of tillers per plant using a tiller inhibition (tin) gene has been considered as an important trait for wheat production in dryland environments. We used a spatial analysis approach with a daily time‐step coupled radiation and transpiration efficiency model to simulate the impact of the reduced‐tillering trait on wheat yield under different climate change scenarios across Australia's arable land. Our results show a small but consistent yield advantage of the reduced‐tillering trait in the most water‐limited environments both under current and likely future conditions. Our climate scenarios show that whilst elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]) alone might limit the area where the reduced‐tillering trait is advantageous, the most likely climate scenario of e[CO2] combined with increased temperature and reduced rainfall consistently increased the area where restricted tillering has an advantage. Whilst long‐term average yield advantages were small (ranged from 31 to 51 kg ha−1 year−1), across large dryland areas the value is large (potential cost‐benefits ranged from Australian dollar 23 to 60 MIL/year). It seems therefore worthwhile to further explore this reduced‐tillering trait in relation to a range of different environments and climates, because its benefits are likely to grow in future dry environments where wheat is grown around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi‐brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy‐wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi‐brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a "sliding window" approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species' phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals' breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi‐brooded species may have been underestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the ratio of carbon uptake to water use by vegetation, water‐use efficiency (WUE) is a key ecosystem property linking global carbon and water cycles. It can be estimated in several ways, but it is currently unclear how different measures of WUE relate, and how well they each capture variation in WUE with soil moisture availability. We evaluated WUE in an Acacia‐dominated woodland ecosystem of central Australia at various spatial and temporal scales using stable carbon isotope analysis, leaf gas exchange and eddy covariance (EC) fluxes. Semi‐arid Australia has a highly variable rainfall pattern, making it an ideal system to study how WUE varies with water availability. We normalized our measures of WUE across a range of vapour pressure deficits using g1, which is a parameter derived from an optimal stomatal conductance model and which is inversely related to WUE. Continuous measures of whole‐ecosystem g1 obtained from EC data were elevated in the 3 days following rain, indicating a strong effect of soil evaporation. Once these values were removed, a close relationship of g1 with soil moisture content was observed. Leaf‐scale values of g1 derived from gas exchange were in close agreement with ecosystem‐scale values. In contrast, values of g1 obtained from stable isotopes did not vary with soil moisture availability, potentially indicating remobilization of stored carbon during dry periods. Our comprehensive comparison of alternative measures of WUE shows the importance of stomatal control of fluxes in this highly variable rainfall climate and demonstrates the ability of these different measures to quantify this effect. Our study provides the empirical evidence required to better predict the dynamic carbon–water relations in semi‐arid Australian ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Naiveté in prey arises from novel ecological mismatches in cue recognition systems and antipredator responses following the arrival of alien predators. The multilevel naiveté framework suggests that animals can progress through levels of naiveté toward predator awareness. Alternatively, native prey may be preadapted to recognize novel predators via common constituents in predator odors or familiar predator archetypes. We tested predictions of these competing hypotheses on the mechanisms driving behavioral responses of native species to alien predators by measuring responses of native free‐living northern brown bandicoots (Isoodon macrourus) to alien red fox (Vulpes vulpes) odor. We compared multiple bandicoot populations either sympatric or allopatric with foxes. Bandicoots sympatric with foxes showed recognition and appropriate antipredator behavior toward fox odor via avoidance. On the few occasions bandicoots did visit, their vigilance significantly increased, and their foraging decreased. In contrast, bandicoots allopatric with foxes showed no recognition of this predator cue. Our results suggest that vulnerable Australian mammals were likely naïve to foxes when they first arrived, which explains why so many native mammals declined soon after fox arrival. Our results also suggest such naiveté can be overcome within a relatively short time frame, driven by experience with predators, thus supporting the multilevel naiveté framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Large spatial and temporal gradients in rainfall and temperature occur across Australia. This heterogeneity drives ecological differentiation in vegetation structure and ecophysiology. We examined multiple leaf‐scale traits, including foliar 13C isotope discrimination (Δ13C), rates of photosynthesis and foliar N concentration and their relationships with multiple climate variables. Fifty‐five species across 27 families were examined across eight sites spanning contrasting biomes. Key questions addressed include: (i) Does Δ13C and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (WUEi) vary with climate at a continental scale? (ii) What are the seasonal and spatial patterns in Δ13C/WUEi across biomes and species? (iii) To what extent does Δ13C reflect variation in leaf structural, functional and nutrient traits across climate gradients? and (iv) Does the relative importance of assimilation and stomatal conductance in driving variation in Δ13C differ across seasons? We found that MAP, temperature seasonality, isothermality and annual temperature range exerted independent effects on foliar Δ13C/WUEi. Temperature‐related variables exerted larger effects than rainfall‐related variables. The relative importance of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance (gs) in determining Δ13C differed across seasons: Δ13C was more strongly regulated by gs during the dry‐season and by photosynthetic capacity during the wet‐season. Δ13C was most strongly correlated, inversely, with leaf mass area ratio among all leaf attributes considered. Leaf Nmass was significantly and positively correlated with MAP during dry‐ and wet‐seasons and with moisture index (MI) during the wet‐season but was not correlated with Δ13C. Leaf Pmass showed significant positive relationship with MAP and Δ13C only during the dry‐season. For all leaf nutrient‐related traits, the relationships obtained for Δ13C with MAP or MI indicated that Δ13C at the species level reliably reflects the water status at the site level. Temperature and water availability, not foliar nutrient content, are the principal factors influencing Δ13C across Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Barrier Reef ( GBR) is an iconic coral reef system extending over 2000 km along the north-east coast of Australia. Global recognition of its Outstanding Universal Value resulted in the listing of the 348 000 km2 GBR World Heritage Area ( WHA) by UNESCO in 1981. Despite various levels of national and international protection, the condition of GBR ecosystems has deteriorated over the past decades, with land-based pollution from the adjacent catchments being a major and ongoing cause for this decline. To reduce land-based pollution, the Australian and Queensland Governments have implemented a range of policy initiatives since 2003. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of existing initiatives to reduce discharge of land-based pollutants into the waters of the GBR. We conclude that recent efforts in the GBR catchments to reduce land-based pollution are unlikely to be sufficient to protect the GBR ecosystems from declining water quality within the aspired time frames. To support management decisions for desired ecological outcomes for the GBR WHA, we identify potential improvements to current policies and incentives, as well as potential changes to current agricultural land use, based on overseas experiences and Australia's unique potential. The experience in the GBR may provide useful guidance for the management of other marine ecosystems, as reducing land-based pollution by better managing agricultural sources is a challenge for coastal communities around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We can effectively monitor soil condition-and develop sound policies to offset the emissions of greenhouse gases-only with accurate data from which to define baselines. Currently, estimates of soil organic C for countries or continents are either unavailable or largely uncertain because they are derived from sparse data, with large gaps over many areas of the Earth. Here, we derive spatially explicit estimates, and their uncertainty, of the distribution and stock of organic C in the soil of Australia. We assembled and harmonized data from several sources to produce the most comprehensive set of data on the current stock of organic C in soil of the continent. Using them, we have produced a fine spatial resolution baseline map of organic C at the continental scale. We describe how we made it by combining the bootstrap, a decision tree with piecewise regression on environmental variables and geostatistical modelling of residuals. Values of stock were predicted at the nodes of a 3-arc-sec (approximately 90 m) grid and mapped together with their uncertainties. We then calculated baselines of soil organic C storage over the whole of Australia, its states and territories, and regions that define bioclimatic zones, vegetation classes and land use. The average amount of organic C in Australian topsoil is estimated to be 29.7 t ha−1 with 95% confidence limits of 22.6 and 37.9 t ha−1. The total stock of organic C in the 0-30 cm layer of soil for the continent is 24.97 Gt with 95% confidence limits of 19.04 and 31.83 Gt. This represents approximately 3.5% of the total stock in the upper 30 cm of soil worldwide. Australia occupies 5.2% of the global land area, so the total organic C stock of Australian soil makes an important contribution to the global carbon cycle, and it provides a significant potential for sequestration. As the most reliable approximation of the stock of organic C in Australian soil in 2010, our estimates have important applications. They could support Australia's National Carbon Accounting System, help guide the formulation of policy around carbon offset schemes, improve Australia's carbon balances, serve to direct future sampling for inventory, guide the design of monitoring networks and provide a benchmark against which to assess the impact of changes in land cover, land management and climate on the stock of C in Australia. In this way, these estimates would help us to develop strategies to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broadacre livestock production is a major but highly diverse component of agriculture in Australia that will be significantly exposed to predicted changes in climate over coming decades. We used the GRAZPLAN simulation models to assess the impacts of climate change under the SRES A2 scenario across southern Australia. Climate change impacts were examined across space (25 representative locations) and time (1970-99, 2030, 2050 and 2070 climate) for each of five livestock enterprises. Climate projection uncertainty was considered by analysing projections from four global circulation models ( GCMs). Livestock production scenarios were compared at their profit-maximizing stocking rate, constrained to ensure that risks of soil erosion were acceptable. Impacts on net primary productivity ( ANPP) varied widely between GCM projections; the average declines from historical climate were 9% in 2030, 7% in 2050 and 14% in 2070. Declines in ANPP were larger at lower-rainfall locations. Sensitivity of ANPP to changes in rainfall ranged from 0.4 to 1.7, to temperature increase from −0.15 to +0.07 °C−1 and to CO2 increase from 0.11 to 0.32. At most locations the dry summer period lengthened, exacerbating the greater erosion risk due to lower ANPP. Transpiration efficiency of pastures increased by 6-25%, but the proportion of ANPP that could safely be consumed by livestock fell sharply so that operating profit (at constant prices) fell by an average of 27% in 2030, 32% in 2050 and 48% in 2070. This amplification of ANPP reductions into larger profitability declines is likely to generalize to other extensive livestock systems. Profit declines were most marked at drier locations, with operating losses expected at 9 of the 25 locations by 2070. Differences between livestock enterprises were smaller than differences between locations and dates. Future research into climate change impacts on Australian livestock production needs to emphasise the dry margin of the cereal-livestock zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A suite of models was used to examine the links between climate, fuels and fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia. Predictions from a downscaled climate model were used to drive models of fuel amount, the moisture content of fuels and two models of forest fire behaviour at a location in western Sydney in New South Wales, Australia. We found that a warming and drying climate produced lower fine fuel amounts, but greater availability of this fuel to burn due to lower moisture contents. Changing fuel load had only a small effect on fuel moisture. A warmer, drier climate increased rate of spread, an important measure of fire behaviour. Reduced fuel loads ameliorated climate-induced changes in fire behaviour for one model. Sensitivity analysis of the other fire model showed that changes in fuel amount induced changes in fire behaviour of a similar magnitude to that caused directly by sensitivity to climate. Projection of changes in fire risk requires modelling of changes in vegetation as well as changes in climate. Better understanding of climate change effects on vegetation structure is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change driven ocean warming and acidification is potentially detrimental to the sensitive planktonic life stages of benthic marine invertebrates. Research has focused on the effects of acidification on calcifying larvae with a paucity of data on species with alternate developmental strategies and on the interactive effects of warming and acidification. To determine the impact of climate change on a conspicuous component of the intertidal fauna of southeast Australia, the development of the noncalcifying lecithotrophic larvae of the sea star Meridiastra calcar was investigated in the setting of predicted ocean warming (+2 to 4 °C) and acidification (−0.4 to 0.6 pH units) for 2100 and beyond in all combinations of stressors. Temperature and pH were monitored in the habitat of M. calcar to place experiments in context with current environmental conditions. There was no effect of temperature or pH on cleavage stage embryos but later development (gastrula-larvae) was negatively effected by a +2 to 4 °C warming and there was a negative effect of −0.6 pH units on embryos reaching the hatched gastrula stage. Mortality and abnormal development in larvae increased significantly even with +2 °C warming and larval growth was impaired at +4 °C. For the range of temperature and pH conditions tested, there were no interactive effects of stressors across all stages monitored. For M. calcar, warming not acidification was the dominant stressor. A regression model incorporating data from this study and projected increasing SST for the region suggests an increase in larval mortality to 70% for M. calcar by 2100 in the absence of acclimation and adaptation. The broad distribution of this species in eastern Australia encompassing subtropical to cold temperate thermal regimes provides the possibility that local M. calcar populations may be sustained in a warming world through poleward migration of thermotolerant propagules, facilitated by the strong southward flow of the East Australian Current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term effects of conservation management practices on greenhouse gas fluxes from tropical/subtropical croplands remain to be uncertain. Using both manual and automatic sampling chambers, we measured N2O and CH4 fluxes at a long-term experimental site (1968-present) in Queensland, Australia from 2006 to 2009. Annual net greenhouse gas fluxes (NGGF) were calculated from the 3-year mean N2O and CH4 fluxes and the long-term soil organic carbon changes. N2O emissions exhibited clear daily, seasonal and interannual variations, highlighting the importance of whole-year measurement over multiple years for obtaining temporally representative annual emissions. Averaged over 3 years, annual N2O emissions from the unfertilized and fertilized soils (90 kg N ha−1 yr−1 as urea) amounted to 138 and 902 g N ha−1, respectively. The average annual N2O emissions from the fertilized soil were 388 g N ha−1 lower under no-till (NT) than under conventional tillage (CT) and 259 g N ha−1 higher under stubble retention (SR) than under stubble burning (SB). Annual N2O emissions from the unfertilized soil were similar between the contrasting tillage and stubble management practices. The average emission factors of fertilizer N were 0.91%, 1.20%, 0.52% and 0.77% for the CT-SB, CT-SR, NT-SB and NT-SR treatments, respectively. Annual CH4 fluxes from the soil were very small (−200-300 g CH4 ha−1 yr−1) with no significant difference between treatments. The NGGF were 277-350 kg CO2-e ha−1 yr−1 for the unfertilized treatments and 401-710 kg CO2-e ha−1 yr−1 for the fertilized treatments. Among the fertilized treatments, N2O emissions accounted for 52-97% of NGGF and NT-SR resulted in the lowest NGGF (401 kg CO2-e ha−1 yr−1 or 140 kg CO2-e t−1 grain). Therefore, NT-SR with improved N fertilizer management practices was considered the most promising management regime for simultaneously achieving maximal yield and minimal NGGF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extensive assessment of historical trends in winegrape maturity dates from vineyards located in geographically diverse winegrape growing regions in Australia has been undertaken. Records from 44 vineyard blocks, representing a range of varieties of Vitis vinifera L., were accessed. These comprise 33 short-term datasets (average 17 years in length) and 11 long-term datasets, ranging from 25 to 115 years in length (average 50 years). Time series of the day of the year grapes attain maturity were assessed. A trend to earlier maturity of winegrapes was observed in 43 of the 44 vineyard blocks. This trend was significant for six out of the 11 long-term blocks for the complete time period for which records were available. For the period 1993-2009, 35 of the 44 vineyard blocks assessed displayed a statistically significant trend to earlier maturity. The average advance in the phenology was dependent on the time period of observation, with a more rapid advance over more recent decades. Over the more recent 1993-2009 period, the average advance was 1.7 days year, whereas for the period 1985-2009 the rate of advance was 0.8 days yr-1 on average in the 10 long-term vineyard blocks assessed for cross-regional comparison. The trend to earlier maturity was associated with warming temperature trends for all of the blocks assessed in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to negatively impact many freshwater environments due to reductions in stream-flow and increases in temperature. These conditions, however, can already be found today in areas experiencing significant drought; current observations of species' responses to droughts can be used to make predictions about their future responses to climate change. Using otolith analysis, we recreated golden perch ( Macquaria ambigua) growth chronologies from two temperate lake populations in southeastern Australia over a 15-year period pre- and during a supraseasonal drought. We related interannual growth variation to landscape-scale changes in temperature and hydrological regimes: fish growth declined as water levels in the lakes dropped during the drought, but this effect was offset by increased growth in warmer years. We hypothesize that golden perch are responding to fluctuations in food availability and intraspecific competition related to water level and to an optimization of physiological growth conditions related to increases in growing season length. Based on our analyses, we made predictions of future growth under a number of climate change scenarios that incorporate forecast deviations in stream-flows and air temperature. Despite climatic models predicting significant declines in future water availability, fish growth may increase due to a disproportionate lengthening of the growing season. As the two lakes are at the limit of the southerly range of golden perch, our results are consistent with previous findings of climate-change driven latitudinal range shifts in a poleward direction. We discuss assumptions concerning the constancy of ecological interactions into the future that warrant further study. Our research provides a novel application of biochronological analysis that could be used elsewhere to further our knowledge of species responses to changing environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding nitrous oxide (NO) fluxes from grain-legume crops in semiarid and arid regions is necessary if we are to improve our knowledge of global terrestrial NO losses resulting from biological N fixation. NO fluxes were measured from a rain-fed soil, cropped to a grain-legume in a semiarid region of southwestern Australia for 1 year on a subdaily basis. The site included plots planted to narrow-leafed lupin ( Lupinus angustifolius; 'lupin') and plots left bare (no lupin). Fluxes were measured using soil chambers connected to a fully automated system that measured NO by gas chromatography. Daily NO fluxes were low (−0.5 to 24 g NO-N ha day) and not different between treatments, culminating in an annual loss of 127 g NO-N ha. Greatest daily NO fluxes occurred from both treatments in the postharvest period, and following a series of summer and autumn rainfall events. At this time of the year, soil conditions were conducive to soil microbial NO production: elevated soil water contents, increased inorganic nitrogen (N) and dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and soil temperatures generally > 25 °C; furthermore, there was no active plant growth to compete for mineralized N. NO emissions from the decomposition of legume crop residue were low, and approximately half that predicted using the currently recommended IPCC methodology. Furthermore, the contribution of the biological N fixation process to NO emissions appeared negligible in the present study, supporting its omission as a source of NO from the IPCC methodology for preparing national greenhouse gas inventories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The semiarid and arid zones cover a quarter of the global land area and support one-fifth of the world's human population. A significant fraction of the global soil–atmosphere exchange for climatically active gases occurs in semiarid and arid zones yet little is known about these exchanges. A study was made of the soil–atmosphere exchange of CH4, CO, N2O and NO x in the semiarid Mallee system, in north-western Victoria, Australia, at two sites: one pristine mallee and the other cleared for approximately 65 years for farming (currently wheat). The mean (± standard error) rates of CH4 exchange were uptakes of −3.0 ± 0.5 ng(C) m−2 s−1 for the Mallee and −6.0 ± 0.3 ng(C) m−2 s−1 for the Wheat. Converting mallee forest to wheat crop increases CH4 uptake significantly. CH4 emissions were observed in the Mallee in summer and were hypothesized to arise from termite activity. We find no evidence that in situ growing wheat plants emit CH4, contrary to a recent report. The average CO emissions of 10.1 ± 1.8 ng(C) m−2 s−1 in the Mallee and 12.6 ± 2.0 ng(C) m−2 s−1 in the Wheat. The average N2O emissions were 0.5 ± 0.1 ng(N) m−2 s−1 from the pristine Mallee and 1.4 ± 0.3 ng(N) m−2 s−1 from the Wheat. The experimental results show that the processes controlling these exchanges are different to those in temperate systems and are poorly understood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to predict the long-term consequences of climate change, it is necessary to link future environmental changes to mechanisms that control plant population processes. This information can then be incorporated into strategies to more accurately model climate change impacts on species or to estimate future extinction risks. We examined the impact of increased temperatures on the longevity and dynamics of the persistent soil seed banks of eight ephemeral species from arid Australia. We found that the predicted global temperature increases under climate change will be reflected in increased soil temperatures, and that seeds in the soil seed bank will be exposed to long durations of high temperatures over the summer months. Three of the eight species studied had significantly greater levels of germination after exposure to predicted increased soil temperatures. Another species displayed a dramatic decrease in seed viability after such exposure. The capacity of such species to use the seed bank to bet hedge against rainfall events that cause germination but are insufficient to allow plant maturation, is compromised by increased germinability and subsequent loss or reduction of seed bank persistence. These predicted changes in the dynamics of soil seed banks increase the risk of local extinctions of these species, while the composition of the community may be altered by changes in species abundance. Our results show that the risk spreading mechanism provided by persistent seed banks could be compromised by the mechanistic impact of forecast temperature increases in arid habitats, and highlight the need to understand mechanisms that control population dynamics when attempting to address likely future impacts of climate change on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data spanning 1981–2006 and calibrated for long-term analyses of vegetation dynamics, we examine whether vegetation cover has increased across Australia and whether there has been a differential response of vegetation functional types in response to changes in climatic growing conditions. Trends in vegetation cover are interpreted within Budyko's energy – water limitation framework. Results from an Australia-wide analysis indicate that vegetation cover (as described by the fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation; fPAR) has increased, on average, by 0.0007 per year – an increase of ∼8% over the 26 years. The majority of this change is due to a 0.0010 per year increase in persistent fPAR (representing nondeciduous perennial vegetation types; up 21%). In contrast, recurrent fPAR (representing deciduous, annual and ephemeral vegetation types) decreased, on average, by 0.0003 per year (down 7%), the trends of which are highly seasonal. Over the same period, Australian average annual precipitation increased by 1.3 mm yr−2 (up 7%). A site-based analysis using 90 long-term meteorological stations with minimal localized land-cover changes showed that energy-limited sites where total fPAR increased generally experienced decreases in precipitation, and water-limited sites that experienced decreases in cover were almost always associated with decreases in precipitation. Interestingly, where vegetation cover increased at water-limited sites, precipitation trends were variable indicating that this is not the only factor driving vegetation response. As Australia is a generally highly water-limited environment, these findings indicate that the effective availability of water to plants has increased on average over the study period. Results also show that persistent vegetation types have benefited more than recurrent types from recent changes in growing conditions. Regardless of what has been driving these changes, the overall response of vegetation over the past 2–3 decades has resulted in an observable greening of the driest inhabited continent on Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing densities of woody plants in savannas has been attributed to both elevated atmospheric CO2 and reduced burning with grazing management, such that the biome could represent a substantial carbon sink. However, we show that extreme droughts (less than two-thirds expected rainfall over 3 years) occur in the drier half of the savanna biome and can cause substantial tree death. An Australian case study reveals that a net increase in tree cover over five decades of above-average rainfall was offset by sudden tree death during drought. The relationship between woody cover change and rainfall is moderated by competition with growth being facilitated by low woody cover and drought-induced death more likely as the woody component of savanna increases. The results are not supportive of a sustained increase in the woody component of xeric savannas resulting from CO2 fertilization or land management. Extensive tree death in savanna regions will become a stark consequence of climate change if predictions of increasing severity and frequency of drought are realized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the influence of elevated CO2 on the production, mass and quality of plant seeds has been well studied, the effect of warming on these characters is largely unknown; and there is practically no information on possible interactions between warming and elevated CO2, despite the importance of these characters in population maintenance and recovery. Here, we present the impacts of elevated CO2 and warming, both in isolation and combination, on seed production, mass, quality, germination success and subsequent seedling growth of Austrodanthonia caespitosa, a dominant temperate C3 grass from Australia, using seeds collected from the TasFACE experiment. Mean seed production and mass were not significantly affected by either elevated CO2 or warming, but elevated CO2 more than doubled the proportion of very light, inviable seeds ( P < 0.05) and halved mean seed N concentration ( P < 0.04) and N content ( P < 0.03). The dependence of seed germination success on seed mass was affected by an elevated CO2× warming interaction ( P < 0.004), such that maternal exposure to elevated CO2 or warming reduced germination if applied in isolation, but not when applied in combination. Maternal effects were retained when seedlings were grown in a common environment for 6 weeks, with seedlings descended from warmed plants 20% smaller ( P < 0.008) with a higher root : shoot ratio ( P < 0.001) than those from unwarmed plants. Given that both elevated CO2 and warming reduced seed mass, quality, germinability or seedling growth, it is likely that global change will reduce population growth or distribution of this dominant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has already altered global patterns of biodiversity by modifying the geographic distributions of species. Forecasts based on bioclimatic envelop modeling of distributions of species suggests greater impacts can be expected in the future, but such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding future climate and migration rates of species. Here, we present a first assessment of the potential impact of climate change on a global biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Western Australia. Across three representative scenarios of future climate change, we simulated migration of 100 Banksia (Proteaceae) species at a rate of 5 km decade−1 and compared projected impacts with those under the commonly applied, but acknowledged as inadequate, assumptions of ‘full-’ and ‘no-migration.’ Across all climate × migration scenarios, 66% of species were projected to decline, whereas only 6% were projected to expand or remain stable. Between 5% and 25% of species were projected to suffer range losses of 100% by 2080, depending mainly on climate scenario. Species losses were driven primarily by changes in current precipitation regimes, with the greatest losses of species projected to occur in a transition zone between wet coastal areas and interior arid regions and which is projected to become more arid in the future. Because the ranges of most species tended to collapse in all climate scenarios, we found that climate change impacts to flora of southwestern Western Australia may be large, even under optimistic assumptions regarding migration abilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the future of biodiversity in southwestern Western Australia may lie largely in the degree to which this hotspot experiences increased drought and in the ability of species to tolerate such decreases in precipitation. More broadly, our study is among a growing number of theoretical studies suggesting the impacts of future climate change on global biodiversity may be considerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forty-four study sites were established in remnant woodland in the Burdekin River catchment in tropical north-east Queensland, Australia, to assess recent (decadal) vegetation change. The aim of this study was further to evaluate whether wide-scale vegetation ‘thickening’ (proliferation of woody plants in formerly more open woodlands) had occurred during the last century, coinciding with significant changes in land management. Soil samples from several depth intervals were size separated into different soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions, which differed from one another by chemical composition and turnover times. Tropical (C4) grasses dominate in the Burdekin catchment, and thus δ13C analyses of SOC fractions with different turnover times can be used to assess whether the relative proportion of trees (C3) and grasses (C4) had changed over time. However, a method was required to permit standardized assessment of the δ13C data for the individual sites within the 13 Mha catchment, which varied in soil and vegetation characteristics. Thus, an index was developed using data from three detailed study sites and global literature to standardize individual isotopic data from different soil depths and SOC fractions to reflect only the changed proportion of trees (C3) to grasses (C4) over decadal timescales. When applied to the 44 individual sites distributed throughout the Burdekin catchment, 64% of the sites were shown to have experienced decadal vegetation thickening, while 29% had remained stable and the remaining 7% had thinned. Thus, the development of this index enabled regional scale assessment and comparison of decadal vegetation patterns without having to rely on prior knowledge of vegetation changes or aerial photography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannas comprise a large area of the global land surface and are subject to frequent disturbance through fire. The role of fire as one of the primary natural carbon cycling mechanisms is a key issue in considering global change feedbacks. The savannas of Northern Australia burn regularly and we aimed to determine their annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and the impact of fire on productivity. We established a long-term eddy covariance flux tower at Howard Springs, Australia and present here 5 years of data from 2001 to 2005. Fire has direct impacts through emissions but also has indirect effects through the loss of productivity due to reduced functional leaf area index and the carbon costs of rebuilding the canopy. The impact of fire on the canopy latent energy exchange was evident for 40 days while the canopy was rebuilt; however, the carbon balance took approximately 70 days to recover. The annual fire free NEP at Howard Springs was estimated at −4.3 t C ha−1 yr−1 with a range of −3.5 to −5.1 t C ha−1 yr−1 across years. We calculated the average annual indirect fire effect as +0.7 t C ha−1 yr−1 using a neural network model approach and estimated average emissions of fine and coarse fuels as +1.6 t C ha−1 yr-1. This allowed us to calculate a net biome production of −2.0 t C ha−1 yr-1. We then partitioned this remaining sink and suggest that most of this can be accounted for by woody increment (1.2 t C ha−1 yr-1) and shrub encroachment (0.5 t C ha−1 yr-1). Given the consistent sink at this site, even under an almost annual fire regime, there may be management options to increase carbon sequestration by reducing fire frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thirty-six mesocosms, each containing a two-species community of Trifolium repens (C3 legume) and Stenotaphrum secundatum (C4 grass), were grown in sand with three nutrient regimes, zero N low P, zero N high P and supplied N high P, under ambient (aCO2) and twice ambient CO2 (eCO2) for 15 months in two greenhouses. Aboveground annual production in the P limited mesocosms did not respond to eCO2 and was reduced by 50% relative to mesocosms with an adequate P supply, where dry-matter production was increased by 12–24% under eCO2. The stimulation of production by eCO2 occurred throughout the year despite a clear seasonality in growth. There was no effect of eCO2 on leaf area index (LAI), which was larger under high P than low P. Live root mass at the end of the experiment was higher under eCO2 in all nutrient treatments, but the response of total belowground C (root+soil) to eCO2 depended on P treatment. Under limiting P, belowground C was not significantly changed by eCO2 (2–2.3 t belowground C ha−1). Under high P supply, both root and soil C pools increased under eCO2. Under aCO2, low P supply increased belowground C by 0.7–1 t C ha−1 above that added by the high P treatment. P is commonly limiting in Australian ecosystems and the majority of ecosystem N input is provided by biological N fixation. Consequently, the response of legumes to eCO2 is of particular importance. These results demonstrate that at low P availability, there is likely to be only a limited response of biomass production by T. repens to eCO2, which in turn may constrain any ecosystem response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to the significant importance of tropical rainforest ecosystems as one of the major sources within the global atmospheric N2O budget (2.2–3.7 Tg N yr−1), regional estimates of their N2O source strength are still limited and highly uncertain. To contribute toward more reliable estimates of the N2O source strength of tropical rainforest ecosystems on a regional scale, we modified a process-oriented biogeochemical model, PnET-N-DNDC, and parameterized it to simulate C and N turnover and associated N2O emissions in and from tropical rainforest ecosystems. Model modifications included: (1) new parameterizations associated with plant physiology and soil hydrology and the addition of algorithms relating daily leaf litterfall to water stress as well as to daily rainfall to account for the effects of heavy rainfall damage; (2) the development of a denitrifier activity index that depends on soil moisture conditions and influences N turnover by denitrification; and (3) the addition of a biological N fixation algorithm. Daily simulated N2O emissions based on site data were in good agreement (model efficiencies up to 0.83) with field observations in the Wet Tropics of Australia and Costa Rica. The model was even able to reproduce the highly dynamic pattern of N2O emissions with short-term increases during the wet season. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the PnET-N-DNDC model was sensitive to changes in soil properties such as pH, clay content, soil organic carbon and climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature. By linking the PnET-N-DNDC model to a geographic information systems database, tropical rainforests in a 9000 km2 area of the Wet Tropics of Australia are estimated to emit 962 t N2O-N yr−1 (2.4 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1) between July 1997 and June 1998. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]