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Land‐use change is considered the greatest threat to nature, having caused worldwide declines in the abundance, diversity, and health of species and ecosystems. Despite increasing research on this global change driver, there are still challenges to forming an effective synthesis. The estimated impact of land‐use change on biodiversity can depend on location, research methods, and taxonomic focus, with recent global meta‐analyses reaching disparate conclusions. Here, we critically appraise this research body and our ability to reach a reliable consensus. We employ named entity recognition to analyze more than 4000 abstracts, alongside full reading of 100 randomly selected papers. We highlight the broad range of study designs and methodologies used; the most common being local space‐for‐time comparisons that classify land use in situ. Species metrics including abundance, distribution, and diversity were measured more frequently than complex responses such as demography, vital rates, and behavior. We identified taxonomic biases, with vertebrates well represented while detritivores were largely missing. Omitting this group may hinder our understanding of how land‐use change affects ecosystem feedback. Research was heavily biased toward temperate forested biomes in North America and Europe, with warmer regions being acutely underrepresented despite offering potential insights into the future effects of land‐use change under novel climates. Various land‐use histories were covered, although more research in understudied regions including Africa and the Middle East is required to capture regional differences in the form of current and historical land‐use practices. Failure to address these challenges will impede our global understanding of land‐use change impacts on biodiversity, limit the reliability of future projections and have repercussions for the conservation of threatened species. Beyond identifying literature biases, we highlight the research priorities and data gaps that need urgent attention and offer perspectives on how to move forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is highlighted by conservation practitioners as an ongoing threat to many overharvested plant and animal species, including several charismatic threatened vertebrates. However, studies that provide evidence‐based and practical recommendations on how to better regulate the TCM trade for sustainability and biodiversity conservation remain limited. China is the biggest promotor of and market for TCM and understanding the TCM trade in China is important for global biodiversity conservation. In particular, conservation researchers need to better understand how the TCM trade and its regulations interact with China's development needs and should collaborate with TCM communities to propose locally adapted suggestions to decision makers. However, progress in these areas has been restricted by language, cultural, and knowledge barriers. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current status of TCM‐related regulations in China, identify weaknesses in regulation frameworks, and highlight issues that currently limit our understanding of the magnitude, dynamics, and impact of the trade. We propose changes in trade regulations, actions to enhance law enforcement, and future research directions to encourage a more sustainable TCM trade that benefits both global biodiversity conservation and TCM development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Neotropical realm still represents a great challenge to our understanding of species distribution patterns and the role played by different drivers of biodiversity. The paper by Coutant et al. (2022) is a great advance towards a holistic approach to quantifying the contribution of environmental and anthropogenic factors that drive community assembly in the Amazon, and how we can apply such knowledge to guide future monitoring programmes. Disentangling the relative roles played by multiple drivers of biodiversity allowed them to also highlight hotspot areas hosting unique freshwater fish diversity and to pinpoint conservation priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co‐benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co‐benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks from ecosystem changes. Not all climate mitigation strategies are equally effective at producing biodiversity co‐benefits, some in fact are counterproductive. Moreover, social implications are often overlooked within the climate‐biodiversity nexus. Protecting biodiverse and carbon‐rich natural environments, ecological restoration of potentially biodiverse and carbon‐rich habitats, the deliberate creation of novel habitats, taking into consideration a locally adapted and meaningful (i.e. full consequences considered) mix of these measures, can result in the most robust win‐win solutions. These can be further enhanced by avoidance of narrow goals, taking long‐term views and minimizing further losses of intact ecosystems. In this review paper, we first discuss various climate mitigation actions that evidence demonstrates can negatively impact biodiversity, resulting in unseen and unintended negative consequences. We then examine climate mitigation actions that co‐deliver biodiversity and societal benefits. We give examples of these win‐win solutions, categorized as 'protect, restore, manage and create', in different regions of the world that could be expanded, upscaled and used for further innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems integrity and services are threatened by anthropogenic global changes. Mitigating and adapting to these changes require knowledge of ecosystem functioning in the expected novel environments, informed in large part through experimentation and modelling. This paper describes 13 advanced controlled environment facilities for experimental ecosystem studies, herein termed ecotrons, open to the international community. Ecotrons enable simulation of a wide range of natural environmental conditions in replicated and independent experimental units while measuring various ecosystem processes. This capacity to realistically control ecosystem environments is used to emulate a variety of climatic scenarios and soil conditions, in natural sunlight or through broad‐spectrum lighting. The use of large ecosystem samples, intact or reconstructed, minimizes border effects and increases biological and physical complexity. Measurements of concentrations of greenhouse trace gases as well as their net exchange between the ecosystem and the atmosphere are performed in most ecotrons, often quasi continuously. The flow of matter is often tracked with the use of stable isotope tracers of carbon and other elements. Equipment is available for measurements of soil water status as well as root and canopy growth. The experiments ran so far emphasize the diversity of the hosted research. Half of them concern global changes, often with a manipulation of more than one driver. About a quarter deal with the impact of biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning and one quarter with ecosystem or plant physiology. We discuss how the methodology for environmental simulation and process measurements, especially in soil, can be improved and stress the need to establish stronger links with modelling in future projects. These developments will enable further improvements in mechanistic understanding and predictive capacity of ecotron research which will play, in complementarity with field experimentation and monitoring, a crucial role in exploring the ecosystem consequences of environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use change is a significant cause of anthropogenic extinctions, which are likely to continue and accelerate as habitat conversion proceeds in most biomes. One way to understand the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity is through improved tools for predicting the number and identity of species losses in response to habitat loss. There are relatively few methods for predicting extinctions and even fewer opportunities for rigorously assessing the quality of these predictions. In this paper, we address these issues by applying a new method based on rarefaction to predict species losses after random, but aggregated, habitat loss. We compare predictions from three rarefaction models, individual‐based, sample‐based, and spatially clustered, to those derived from a commonly used extinction estimation method, the species–area relationship (SAR). We apply each method to a mesocosm experiment, in which we aim to predict species richness and extinctions of arthropods immediately following 50% habitat loss. While each model produced strikingly accurate predictions of species richness immediately after the habitat loss disturbance, each model significantly underestimated the number of extinctions occurring at both the local (within‐mesocosm) and regional (treatment‐wide) scales. Despite the stochastic nature of our small‐scale, short‐term, and randomly applied habitat loss experiment, we found surprisingly clear evidence for extinction selectivity, for example, when abundant species with low extinction probabilities were extirpated following habitat loss. The important role played by selective extinction even in this contrived experimental system suggests that ecologically driven, trait‐based extinctions play an equally important role to stochastic extinction, even when the disturbance itself has no clear selectivity. As a result, neutrally stochastic null models such as the SAR and rarefaction are likely to underestimate extinctions caused by habitat loss. Nevertheless, given the difficulty of predicting extinctions, null models provide useful benchmarks for conservation planning by providing minimum estimates and probabilities of species extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing nonindigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Sixteen of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, 19 and 14 records, respectively. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan‐Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to global change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change—invasive species and climate change. This paper examines the current status and future risks of biological invasions in the marine environments of the Arctic, within the context of climate change, natural resource development, and expanded Arctic shipping. The number of nonindigenous species introductions varied across the region with the greatest number of introductions recorded in the Iceland Shelf, followed by the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea. Most introductions were attributed to vessels, natural spread, and aquaculture activities. Vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan‐Arctic biodiversity inventory are recommended to address future invasion risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cropland expansion threatens biodiversity by driving habitat loss and impacts carbon storage through loss of biomass and soil carbon (C). There is a growing concern land‐use change (LUC) to cropland will result in a loss of ecosystem function and various ecosystem services essential for human health and well‐being. This paper examines projections of future cropland expansion from an integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0 under a "business as usual" scenario and the direct impact on both biodiversity and C storage. By focusing on biodiversity hotspots and Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites, loss of habitat as well as potential impacts on endangered and critically endangered species are explored. With regards to C storage, the impact on both soil and vegetation standing C stocks are examined. We show that if projected trends are realized, there are likely to be severe consequences for these resources. Substantial loss of habitat in biodiversity hotspots such as Indo‐Burma, and the Philippians is expected as well as 50% of species in AZE sites losing part of their last remaining habitat. An estimated 13.7% of vegetation standing C stocks and 4.6% of soil C stocks are also projected to be lost in areas affected with Brazil and Mexico being identified as priorities in terms of both biodiversity and C losses from cropland expansion. Changes in policy to regulate projected cropland expansion, and increased measures to protect natural resources, are highly likely to be required to prevent these biodiversity and C losses in the future. This article examines the projected impacts of cropland expansion on both carbon storage and biodiversity if current trends continue. It focuses on biodiversity hotspots and the Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites for biodiversity as well as both soil and standing vegetation carbon stocks. Results are compared on both a regional and national level identifying priority areas where impacts on both ecosystem services are likely to be the greatest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerating rate of global change has focused attention on the cumulative impacts of novel and extreme environmental changes (i.e. stressors), especially in marine ecosystems. As integrators of local catchment and regional processes, freshwater ecosystems are also ranked highly sensitive to the net effects of multiple stressors, yet there has not been a large-scale quantitative synthesis. We analysed data from 88 papers including 286 responses of freshwater ecosystems to paired stressors and discovered that overall, their cumulative mean effect size was less than the sum of their single effects (i.e. an antagonistic interaction). Net effects of dual stressors on diversity and functional performance response metrics were additive and antagonistic, respectively. Across individual studies, a simple vote-counting method revealed that the net effects of stressor pairs were frequently more antagonistic (41%) than synergistic (28%), additive (16%) or reversed (15%). Here, we define a reversal as occurring when the net impact of two stressors is in the opposite direction (negative or positive) from that of the sum of their single effects. While warming paired with nutrification resulted in additive net effects, the overall mean net effect of warming combined with a second stressor was antagonistic. Most importantly, the mean net effects across all stressor pairs and response metrics were consistently antagonistic or additive, contrasting the greater prevalence of reported synergies in marine systems. Here, a possible explanation for more antagonistic responses by freshwater biota to stressors is that the inherent greater environmental variability of smaller aquatic ecosystems fosters greater potential for acclimation and co-adaptation to multiple stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A future higher risk of severe flooding of streams and rivers has been projected to change riparian plant community composition and species richness, but the extent and direction of the expected change remain uncertain. We conducted a meta-analysis to synthesize globally available experimental evidence and assess the effects of increased flooding on (1) riparian adult plant and seedling survival, (2) riparian plant biomass and (3) riparian plant species composition and richness. We evaluated which plant traits are of key importance for the response of riparian plant species to flooding. We identified and analysed 53 papers from ISI Web of Knowledge which presented quantitative experimental results on flooding treatments and corresponding control situations. Our meta-analysis demonstrated how longer duration of flooding, greater depth of flooding and, particularly, their combination reduce seedling survival of most riparian species. Plant height above water level, ability to elongate shoots and plasticity in root porosity were decisive for adult plant survival and growth during longer periods of flooding. Both 'quiescence' and 'escape' proved to be successful strategies promoting riparian plant survival, which was reflected in the wide variation in survival (full range between 0 and 100%) under fully submerged conditions, while plants that protrude above the water level (>20 cm) almost all survive. Our survey confirmed that the projected increase in the duration and depth of flooding periods is sufficient to result in species shifts. These shifts may lead to increased or decreased riparian species richness depending on the nutrient, climatic and hydrological status of the catchment. Species richness was generally reduced at flooded sites in nutrient-rich catchments and sites that previously experienced relatively stable hydrographs (e.g. rain-fed lowland streams). Species richness usually increased at sites in desert and semi-arid climate regions (e.g. intermittent streams). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use and land-cover ( LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the discipline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and habitat loss are both key threatening processes driving the global loss in biodiversity. Yet little is known about their synergistic effects on biological populations due to the complexity underlying both processes. If the combined effects of habitat loss and climate change are greater than the effects of each threat individually, current conservation management strategies may be inefficient and at worst ineffective. Therefore, there is a pressing need to identify whether interacting effects between climate change and habitat loss exist and, if so, quantify the magnitude of their impact. In this article, we present a meta-analysis of studies that quantify the effect of habitat loss on biological populations and examine whether the magnitude of these effects depends on current climatic conditions and historical rates of climate change. We examined 1319 papers on habitat loss and fragmentation, identified from the past 20 years, representing a range of taxa, landscapes, land-uses, geographic locations and climatic conditions. We find that current climate and climate change are important factors determining the negative effects of habitat loss on species density and/or diversity. The most important determinant of habitat loss and fragmentation effects, averaged across species and geographic regions, was current maximum temperature, with mean precipitation change over the last 100 years of secondary importance. Habitat loss and fragmentation effects were greatest in areas with high maximum temperatures. Conversely, they were lowest in areas where average rainfall has increased over time. To our knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a global terrestrial analysis of existing data to quantify and test for interacting effects between current climate, climatic change and habitat loss on biological populations. Understanding the synergistic effects between climate change and other threatening processes has critical implications for our ability to support and incorporate climate change adaptation measures into policy development and management response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are a global phenomenon that threatens biodiversity, and few, if any, ecosystems are free from alien species. The outcome of human-mediated introductions is affected by the invasiveness of species and invasibility of ecosystems, but research has primarily focused on defining, characterizing and identifying invasive species; ecosystem invasibility has received much less attention. A prerequisite for characterizing invasibility is the ability to compare levels of invasion across ecosystems. In this paper, we aim to identify the best way to quantify the level of invasion by nonnative animals and plants by reviewing the advantages and disadvantages of different metrics. We explore how interpretation and choice of these measures can depend on the objective of a study or management intervention. Based on our review, we recommend two invasion indices and illustrate their use by applying them to two case studies. Relative alien species richness and relative alien species abundance indicate the contribution that alien species make to a community. They are easy to measure, can be applied to various taxa, are independent of scale and are comparable across regions and ecosystems, and historical data are often available. The relationship between relative alien richness and abundance can indicate the presence of dominant alien species and the trajectory of invasion over time, and can highlight ecosystems and sites that are heavily invaded or especially susceptible to invasion. Splitting species into functional groups and examining invasion patterns of transformer species may be particularly instructive for gauging effects of alien invasion on ecosystem structure and function. Establishing standard, transparent ways to define and quantify invasion level will facilitate meaningful comparisons among studies, ecosystem types and regions. It is essential for progress in ecology and will help guide ecosystem restoration and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicted climate change in the Andes will require plant species to migrate upslope to avoid extinction. Central to predictions of species responses to climate change is an understanding of species distributions along environmental gradients. Environmental gradients are frequently modelled as abiotic, but biotic interactions can play important roles in setting species distributions, abundances, and life history traits. Biotic interactions also have the potential to influence species responses to climate change, yet they remain mostly unquantified. An important interaction long studied in tropical forests is postdispersal seed predation which has been shown to affect the population dynamics, community structure, and diversity of plant species in time and space. This paper presents a comparative seed predation study of 24 species of tropical trees across a 2.5 km elevation gradient in the Peruvian Andes and quantifies seed predation variation across the elevational gradient. We then use demographic modelling to assess effects of the observed variation in seed predation on population growth rates in response to observed increasing temperatures in the area. We found marked variation among species in total seed predation depending on the major seed predator of the species and consistent changes in seed predation across the gradient. There was a significant increase in seed survival with increasing elevation, a trend that appears to be driven by regulation of seed predators via top-down forces in the lowlands giving way to bottom-up (productivity) regulation at mid- to high elevations, resulting in a ninefold increase in effective fecundity for trees at high elevations. This potential increase in seed crop size strongly affects modelled plant population growth and seed dispersal distances, increasing population migration potential in the face of climate change. These results also indicate that species interactions can have effects on par with climate in species responses to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While most ecologists agree that the effects of fragmentation on diversity of organisms are predominantly negative and that the scale of fragmentation defines their severity, the role of habitat corridors in mitigating those effects still remains controversial. This ambiguousness rests largely on various difficulties in experimentation, a problem partially solved in the present paper by the use of easily manipulated soil communities. In this 2.5-year-long field experiment, we investigated the responses of soil decomposer organisms (from microbes to mesofaunal predators) to habitat fragment size, in the presence or absence of habitat corridors connecting the fragments. The habitat fragments and corridors, composed of forest humus soil, were embedded in mineral soil representing an uninhabitable (or nonpreferred) matrix for the decomposer organisms. The results demonstrate that soil decomposer organisms do respond to changes in their habitat size: the species richness of microarthropods (mites and collembolans) increased as the size of the fragments increased. Especially collembolan species and predatory mites proved to be sensitive to the restricted habitat size, which is suggested to be a consequence of the large proportion of rare species and small and fluctuating population sizes in these groups. Contrary to our expectations, the presence of corridors had no positive effects on species richness or abundance of any of the studied faunas, possibly because of the low quality of the corridors. On the other hand, the biomass of soil fungi increased in the presence of corridors, which apparently provided a preferred pathway for vegetative dispersal of the fungi. Our results indicate that despite their characteristic underground environment, the response of soil decomposer organisms – in particular that of microarthropods – to habitat size is not unlike to that of the larger organisms in aboveground habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, habitat loss, and human disturbance are major threats to biodiversity. Protecting habitats plays a pivotal role in biodiversity conservation, and there is a global imperative to establish an effective system of protected areas (PAs) to implement habitat conservation and halt biodiversity decline. However, the protected patch size of habitat for a species is just as important for biodiversity conservation as the expansion of areas already under protection. In China, conservation management is often carried out based on administrative divisions. Therefore, here, an analytical conservation management framework was developed based on administrative divisions to assess whether the current network of PAs can effectively meet species' conservation needs using the minimum area requirements (MARs) of species as criteria for medium and large‐sized mammals in China. This study found that the MAR of medium and large‐sized mammals was larger in the northwest and smaller in the southeast, while taking the Hu line as the dividing line. Precipitation seasonality, elevation, annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are the main environmental factors driving the distribution of a species MAR. Compared with MAR for each species, the maximum protected patch size of habitat is severely undersized in most provinces where those species primarily distribute, and this is particularly true for large carnivores and threatened species. The densely populated provinces of eastern China are particularly affected by this. The present study's framework can identify the provinces needing to expand PAs or implement other effective area‐based conservation measures and habitat restoration. This analytical framework is also relevant for biodiversity conservation in different taxa and regions around the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) are important drivers of forest demography. Here we apply previously derived growth and survival responses for 94 tree species, representing >90% of the contiguous US forest basal area, to project how changes in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition from 20 different future scenarios may affect forest composition to 2100. We find that under the low climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), reductions in aboveground tree biomass from higher temperatures are roughly offset by increases in aboveground tree biomass from reductions in N and S deposition. However, under the higher climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) the decreases from climate change overwhelm increases from reductions in N and S deposition. These broad trends underlie wide variation among species. We found averaged across temperature scenarios the relative abundance of 60 species were projected to decrease more than 5% and 20 species were projected to increase more than 5%; and reductions of N and S deposition led to a decrease for 13 species and an increase for 40 species. This suggests large shifts in the composition of US forests in the future. Negative climate effects were mostly from elevated temperature and were not offset by scenarios with wetter conditions. We found that by 2100 an estimated 1 billion trees under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 20 billion trees under the RCP 8.5 scenario may be pushed outside the temperature record upon which these relationships were derived. These results may not fully capture future changes in forest composition as several other factors were not included. Overall efforts to reduce atmospheric deposition of N and S will likely be insufficient to overcome climate change impacts on forest demography across much of the United States unless we adhere to the low climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity offsetting is a globally influential policy mechanism for reconciling trade‐offs between development and biodiversity loss. However, there is little robust evidence of its effectiveness. We evaluated the outcomes of a jurisdictional offsetting policy (Victoria, Australia). Offsets under Victoria's Native Vegetation Framework (2002–2013) aimed to prevent loss and degradation of remnant vegetation, and generate gains in vegetation extent and quality. We categorised offsets into those with near‐complete baseline woody vegetation cover ("avoided loss", 2702 ha) and with incomplete cover ("regeneration", 501 ha), and evaluated impacts on woody vegetation extent from 2008 to 2018. We used two approaches to estimate the counterfactual. First, we used statistical matching on biophysical covariates: a common approach in conservation impact evaluation, but which risks ignoring potentially important psychosocial confounders. Second, we compared changes in offsets with changes in sites that were not offsets for the study duration but were later enrolled as offsets, to partially account for self‐selection bias (where landholders enrolling land may have shared characteristics affecting how they manage land). Matching on biophysical covariates, we estimated that regeneration offsets increased woody vegetation extent by 1.9%–3.6%/year more than non‐offset sites (138–180 ha from 2008 to 2018) but this effect weakened with the second approach (0.3%–1.9%/year more than non‐offset sites; 19–97 ha from 2008 to 2018) and disappeared when a single outlier land parcel was removed. Neither approach detected any impact of avoided loss offsets. We cannot conclusively demonstrate whether the policy goal of 'net gain' (NG) was achieved because of data limitations. However, given our evidence that the majority of increases in woody vegetation extent were not additional (would have happened without the scheme), a NG outcome seems unlikely. The results highlight the importance of considering self‐selection bias in the design and evaluation of regulatory biodiversity offsetting policy, and the challenges of conducting robust impact evaluations of jurisdictional biodiversity offsetting policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structural framework of soil mediates all soil processes, at all relevant scales. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity prevalent in most soils underpins the majority of biological diversity in soil, providing refuge sites for prey against predator, flow paths for biota to move, or be moved, and localized pools of substrate for biota to multiply. Just as importantly, soil biota play a crucial role in mediating soil structure: bacteria and fungi aggregate and stabilize structure at small scales (μm–cm) and earthworms and termites stabilize and create larger-scale structures (mm–m). The stability of this two-way interaction of structure and biota relations is crucial to the sustainability of the ecosystem. Soil is constantly reacting to changes in microclimates, and many of the soil–plant–microbe processes rely on the functioning of subtle chemical and physical gradients. The effect of global change on soil structure–biota interactions may be significant, through alterations in precipitation, temperature events, or land-use. Nonetheless, because of the complexity and the ubiquitous heterogeneity of these interactions, it is difficult to extrapolate from general qualitative predictions of the effects of perturbations to specific reactions. This paper reviews some of the main soil structure–biota interactions, particularly focusing on soil stability, and the role of biota mediating soil structures. The effect of alterations in climate and land-use on these interactions is investigated. Several case studies of the effect of land-use change are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 may alter patterns of plant biomass production. These changes will be dependent on the ability of plants to acquire sufficient nutrients to maintain enhanced growth. Species-specific differences in responsiveness to CO2 may lead to changes in plant community composition and biodiversity. Differences in species-level growth responses to CO2 may be, in a large part, driven by differences in the ability to acquire nutrients. To understand the mechanisms of how elevated CO2 leads to changes in community-level productivity, we need to study the growth responses and patterns of nutrient acquisition for each of the species that comprise the community. In this paper, we present a study of how elevated CO2 affects community-level and species-level patterns of nitrogen uptake and biomass production. As an experimental system we use experimental communities of 11 co-occurring annuals common to disturbed seasonal grasslands in south-western U.S.A. We established experimental communities with approximately even numbers of each species in three different atmospheric CO2 concentrations (375, 550, and 700 ppm). We maintained these communities for 1, 1.5, and 2 months at which times we applied a 15N tracer (15NH415NO3) to quantify the nitrogen uptake and then measured plant biomass, nitrogen content, and nitrogen uptake rates for the entire communities as well as for each species. Overall, community-level responses to elevated CO2 were consistent with the majority of other studies of individual- and multispecies assemblages, where elevated CO2 leads to enhanced biomass production early on, but this enhancement declines through time. In contrast, the responses of the individual species within the communities was highly variable, showing the full range of responses from positive to negative. Due to the large... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A wide variety of models have illustrated the potential importance of terrestrial biological feedbacks on climate and climate change; yet our ability to make precise predictions is severely limited, due to a high degree of uncertainty. In this paper, after briefly reviewing current models, we present challenges for new terrestrial models and introduce a simple mechanistic approach that may complement existing approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming‐Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature‐based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade‐offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio‐ecological systems and biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, biodiversity loss, and chemical pollution are planetary‐scale emergencies requiring urgent mitigation actions. As these "triple crises" are deeply interlinked, they need to be tackled in an integrative manner. However, while climate change and biodiversity are often studied together, chemical pollution as a global change factor contributing to worldwide biodiversity loss has received much less attention in biodiversity research so far. Here, we review evidence showing that the multifaceted effects of anthropogenic chemicals in the environment are posing a growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Therefore, failure to account for pollution effects may significantly undermine the success of biodiversity protection efforts. We argue that progress in understanding and counteracting the negative impact of chemical pollution on biodiversity requires collective efforts of scientists from different disciplines, including but not limited to ecology, ecotoxicology, and environmental chemistry. Importantly, recent developments in these fields have now enabled comprehensive studies that could efficiently address the manifold interactions between chemicals and ecosystems. Based on their experience with intricate studies of biodiversity, ecologists are well equipped to embrace the additional challenge of chemical complexity through interdisciplinary collaborations. This offers a unique opportunity to jointly advance a seminal frontier in pollution ecology and facilitate the development of innovative solutions for environmental protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the protected area (PA) covers >15% of the planet's terrestrial land area and continues to expand, factors determining its effectiveness in conserving endangered species are being debated. We investigated the links between direct anthropogenic pressures, socioeconomic settings, and the coverage of vertebrate taxa by China's PA network, and indicated that high socioeconomic status and low levels of human pressure correlate with high species coverage, with threatened mammals more effectively conserved than reptiles or amphibians. Positive links between conservation outcomes and socioeconomic progress appear linked to local livelihood improvements triggering positive perceptions of local PAs—aided further by ecological compensation and tourism schemes introduced in wealthy areas and reinforced by continued positive conservation outcomes. Socioeconomic development of China's less developed regions might assist regional PA efficiency and achievement of the Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, while also addressing potential shortcomings from an insufficient past focus on socioeconomic impacts for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016–2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite—they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensification of land use by humans has led to a homogenization of landscapes and decreasing resilience of ecosystems globally due to a loss of biodiversity, including the majority of forests. Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) research has provided compelling evidence for a positive effect of biodiversity on ecosystem functions and services at the local (α‐diversity) scale, but we largely lack empirical evidence on how the loss of between‐patch β‐diversity affects biodiversity and multifunctionality at the landscape scale (γ‐diversity). Here, we present a novel concept and experimental framework for elucidating BEF patterns at α‐, β‐, and γ‐scales in real landscapes at a forest management‐relevant scale. We examine this framework using 22 temperate broadleaf production forests, dominated by Fagus sylvatica. In 11 of these forests, we manipulated the structure between forest patches by increasing variation in canopy cover and deadwood. We hypothesized that an increase in landscape heterogeneity would enhance the β‐diversity of different trophic levels, as well as the β‐functionality of various ecosystem functions. We will develop a new statistical framework for BEF studies extending across scales and incorporating biodiversity measures from taxonomic to functional to phylogenetic diversity using Hill numbers. We will further expand the Hill number concept to multifunctionality allowing the decomposition of γ‐multifunctionality into α‐ and β‐components. Combining this analytic framework with our experimental data will allow us to test how an increase in between patch heterogeneity affects biodiversity and multifunctionality across spatial scales and trophic levels to help inform and improve forest resilience under climate change. Such an integrative concept for biodiversity and functionality, including spatial scales and multiple aspects of diversity and multifunctionality as well as physical and environmental structure in forests, will go far beyond the current widely applied approach in forestry to increase resilience of future forests through the manipulation of tree species composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is composed of both inorganic nitrogen (IN) and organic nitrogen (ON), and these sources of N may exhibit different impacts on ecosystems. However, our understanding of the impacts of N deposition is largely based on experimental gradients of INs or more rarely ONs. Thus, the effects of N deposition on ecosystem productivity and biodiversity may be biased. We explored the differential impacts of N addition with different IN:ON ratios (0:10, 3:7, 5:5, 7:3, and 10:0) on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of plant community and plant diversity in a typical temperate grassland with a long-term N addition experiment. Soil pH, litter biomass, soil IN concentration, and light penetration were measured to examine the potential mechanisms underlying species loss with N addition. Our results showed that N addition significantly increased plant community ANPP by 68.33%–105.50% and reduced species richness by 16.20%–37.99%. The IN:ON ratios showed no significant effects on plant community ANPP. However, IN-induced species richness loss was about 2.34 times of ON-induced richness loss. Soil pH was positively related to species richness, and they exhibited very similar response patterns to IN:ON ratios. It implies that soil acidification accounts for the different magnitudes of species loss with IN and ON additions. Overall, our study suggests that it might be reasonable to evaluate the effects of N deposition on plant community ANPP with either IN or ON addition. However, the evaluation of N deposition on biodiversity might be overestimated if only IN is added or underestimated if only ON is added. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two major oceanographic changes have recently propagated through several trophic levels in coastal areas of Southeast Greenland (SEG). Firstly, the amount of drift‐ice exported from the Fram Strait and transported with the East Greenland Current (EGC) has decreased significantly over the past two decades, and a main tipping element (summer sea ice) has virtually disappeared since 2003 leading to a regime shift in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the region. The following 20‐year period with low or no coastal sea ice is unique in the 200‐year history of ice observations in the region, and the regime shift is also obvious in the volume of ice export through the Fram Strait after 2013. In the same period, the temperature of the EGC south of 73.5 N has increased significantly (>2°C) since 1980. Secondly, the warm Irminger Current, which advects warm, saline Atlantic Water into the region, has become warmer since 1990. The lack of pack ice in summer together with a warming ocean generated cascading effects on the ecosystem in SEG that are manifested in a changed fish fauna with an influx of boreal species in the south and the subarctic capelin further north. At higher trophic levels there has been an increase in the abundance of several boreal cetaceans (humpback, fin, killer, and pilot whales and dolphins) that are either new to this area or occur in historically large numbers. It is estimated that the new cetacean species in SEG are responsible for an annual predation level of 700,000 tons of fish. In addition, predation on krill species is estimated at >1,500,000 tons mainly consumed by fin whales. Simultaneously, there has been a reduction in the abundance and catches of narwhals and walruses in SEG and it is suggested that these species have been impacted by the habitat changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managing ecosystems to effectively preserve function and services requires reliable tools that can infer changes in the stability and dynamics of a system. Conceptually, functional diversity (FD) appears as a sensitive and viable monitoring metric stemming from suggestions that FD is a universally important measure of biodiversity and has a mechanistic influence on ecological processes. It is however unclear whether changes in FD consistently occur prior to state responses or vice versa, with no current work on the temporal relationship between FD and state to support a transition towards trait‐based indicators. There is consequently a knowledge gap regarding when functioning changes relative to biodiversity change and where FD change falls in that sequence. We therefore examine the lagged relationship between planktonic FD and abundance‐based metrics of system state (e.g. biomass) across five highly monitored lake communities using both correlation and cutting edge non‐linear empirical dynamic modelling approaches. Overall, phytoplankton and zooplankton FD display synchrony with lake state but each lake is idiosyncratic in the strength of relationship. It is therefore unlikely that changes in plankton FD are identifiable before changes in more easily collected abundance metrics. These results highlight the power of empirical dynamic modelling in disentangling time lagged relationships in complex multivariate ecosystems, but suggest that FD cannot be generically viable as an early indicator. Individual lakes therefore require consideration of their specific context and any interpretation of FD across systems requires caution. However, FD still retains value as an alternative state measure or a trait representation of biodiversity when considered at the system level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation phenology has been viewed as the nature's calendar and an integrative indicator of plant‐climate interactions. The correct representation of vegetation phenology is important for models to accurately simulate the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the vegetated land surface and the atmosphere. Remote sensing has advanced the monitoring of vegetation phenology by providing spatially and temporally continuous data that together with conventional ground observations offers a unique contribution to our knowledge about the environmental impact on ecosystems as well as the ecological adaptations and feedback to global climate change. Land surface phenology (LSP) is defined as the use of satellites to monitor seasonal dynamics in vegetated land surfaces and to estimate phenological transition dates. LSP, as an interdisciplinary subject among remote sensing, ecology, and biometeorology, has undergone rapid development over the past few decades. Recent advances in sensor technologies, as well as data fusion techniques, have enabled novel phenology retrieval algorithms that refine phenology details at even higher spatiotemporal resolutions, providing new insights into ecosystem dynamics. As such, here we summarize the recent advances in LSP and the associated opportunities for science applications. We focus on the remaining challenges, promising techniques, and emerging topics that together we believe will truly form the very frontier of the global LSP research field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

However, the carbon-biodiversity relationship has considerable scatter, so a protected area system optimized only for biodiversity will not usually be optimal for carbon and the best outcome for climate will therefore be achieved at less than maximum effectiveness for biodiversity conservation. Carbon storage and biodiversity are generally positively related at large spatial scales (Di Marco et al., [5]), so the global outcomes for climate are similar to those for biodiversity. However, the global aggregation of studies makes considerably less sense for biodiversity - particularly terrestrial biodiversity - than for climate, since patterns of biodiversity loss are much less uniform than those for climate change, as also are the relationships between biodiversity, carbon and food production. [Extracted from the article]

Antarctic biodiversity faces an unknown future with a changing climate. Most terrestrial biota is restricted to limited patches of ice‐free land in a sea of ice, where they are adapted to the continent's extreme cold and wind and exploit microhabitats of suitable conditions. As temperatures rise, ice‐free areas are predicted to expand, more rapidly in some areas than others. There is high uncertainty as to how species' distributions, physiology, abundance, and survivorship will be affected as their habitats transform. Here we use current knowledge to propose hypotheses that ice‐free area expansion (i) will increase habitat availability, though the quality of habitat will vary; (ii) will increase structural connectivity, although not necessarily increase opportunities for species establishment; (iii) combined with milder climates will increase likelihood of non‐native species establishment, but may also lengthen activity windows for all species; and (iv) will benefit some species and not others, possibly resulting in increased homogeneity of biodiversity. We anticipate considerable spatial, temporal, and taxonomic variation in species responses, and a heightened need for interdisciplinary research to understand the factors associated with ecosystem resilience under future scenarios. Such research will help identify at‐risk species or vulnerable localities and is crucial for informing environmental management and policymaking into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Woody encroachment is ubiquitous in grassy ecosystems worldwide, but its global impacts on the diversity of herbaceous plants that characterise and define these ecosystems remain unquantified. The pervasiveness of encroachment is relatively easily observed via remote sensing, but its impacts on plant diversity and richness below the canopy can only be observed via field‐based studies. Via a meta‐analysis of 42 field studies across tropical to temperate grassy ecosystems, we quantified how encroachment altered herbaceous species richness, and the richness of forbs, C3 graminoids and C4 graminoids. Across studies, the natural logarithm of the response ratio (lnRR) of herbaceous species richness ranged from −3.33 to 0.34 with 87% of encroached ecosystems negatively impacted. Assessment of the extent of encroachment, duration of encroachment, mean annual rainfall, latitude, and continent demonstrated that only extent of encroachment had relevance in the data (univariate model including a random effect of study explained 45.4% of variance). The global weighted mean lnRR of species richness decreased from −0.245 at <33% of woody cover increase, to −0.562 at 33%–66%, and to −0.962 at >66%. Continued encroachment results in substantial loss of herbaceous diversity at medium and high extents, with a loss of richness that is not replaced. Although all functional groups are significantly negatively impacted by encroachment, forb richness is relatively more sensitive than graminoid richness, and C4 graminoid richness relatively more than C3 graminoid richness. Although no geographic or climatic correlates had relevance in the data, encroachment as an emergent product of global change coalesces to decrease ground layer light availability, lead to loss of fire and grazers, and alter hydrology and soils. Encroachment is accelerating and grassy ecosystems require urgent attention to determine critical woody cover thresholds that facilitate diverse and resilient grassy ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mounting observational records demonstrate human‐caused faunal decline in recent decades, while accumulating archaeological evidence suggests an early biodiversity impact of human activities during the Holocene. A fundamental question arises concerning whether modern wildlife population declines began during early human disturbance. Here, we performed a population genomic analysis of six common forest birds in East Asia to address this question. For five of them, demographic history inference based on 25–33 genomes of each species revealed dramatic population declines by 4‐ to 48‐fold over millennia (e.g. 2000–5000 thousand years ago). Nevertheless, summary statistics detected nonsignificant correlations between these population size trajectories and Holocene temperature variations, and ecological niche models explicitly predicted extensive range persistence during the Holocene, implying limited demographic consequence of Holocene climate change. Further analyses suggest high negative correlations between the reconstructed population declines and human disturbance intensities and indicate a potential driver of human activities. These findings provide a deep‐time and large‐scale insight into the recently recognized avifaunal decline and support an early origin hypothesis of human effects on biodiversity. Overall, our study sheds light on the current biodiversity crisis in the context of long‐term human–environment interactions and offers a multi‐evidential framework for quantitatively assessing the ecological consequences of human disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately. There is evidence that conservation actions that halt, slow or reverse biodiversity loss can simultaneously slow anthropogenic mediated climate change significantly. This review highlights conservation actions which have the largest potential for mitigation of climate change. We note that conservation actions have mainly synergistic benefits and few antagonistic trade‐offs with climate change mitigation. Specifically, we identify direct co‐benefits in 14 out of the 21 action targets of the draft post‐2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, notwithstanding the many indirect links that can also support both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. These relationships are context and scale‐dependent; therefore, we showcase examples of local biodiversity conservation actions that can be incentivized, guided and prioritized by global objectives and targets. The close interlinkages between biodiversity, climate change mitigation, other nature's contributions to people and good quality of life are seldom as integrated as they should be in management and policy. This review aims to re‐emphasize the vital relationships between biodiversity conservation actions and climate change mitigation in a timely manner, in support to major Conferences of Parties that are about to negotiate strategic frameworks and international goals for the decades to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid human‐driven environmental changes are impacting animal populations around the world. Currently, land‐use and climate change are two of the biggest pressures facing biodiversity. However, studies investigating the impacts of these pressures on population trends often do not consider potential interactions between climate and land‐use change. Further, a population's climatic position (how close the ambient temperature and precipitation conditions are to the species' climatic tolerance limits) is known to influence responses to climate change but has yet to be investigated with regard to its influence on land‐use change responses over time. Consequently, important variations across species' ranges in responses to environmental changes may be being overlooked. Here, we combine data from the Living Planet and BioTIME databases to carry out a global analysis exploring the impacts of land use, habitat loss, climatic position, climate change and the interactions between these variables, on vertebrate population trends. By bringing these datasets together, we analyse over 7,000 populations across 42 countries. We find that land‐use change is interacting with climate change and a population's climatic position to influence rates of population change. Moreover, features of a population's local landscape (such as surrounding land cover) play important roles in these interactions. For example, populations in agricultural land uses where maximum temperatures were closer to their hot thermal limit, declined at faster rates when there had also been rapid losses in surrounding semi‐natural habitat. The complex interactions between these variables on populations highlight the importance of taking intraspecific variation and interactions between local and global pressures into account. Understanding how drivers of change are interacting and impacting populations, and how this varies spatially, is critical if we are to identify populations at risk, predict species' responses to future environmental changes and produce suitable conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well‐being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones—distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad‐scale ecosystem types—is limited. To address this gap, we used high‐resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901–1920), contemporary (1979–2013), and future (2061–2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km2 (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km2 (42.6% of land) under "business‐as‐usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social–ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although deforestation remains widespread in the tropics, many places are now experiencing significant forest recovery (i.e., forest transition), offering an optimistic outlook for natural ecosystem recovery and carbon sequestration. Naturally regenerated forests, however, may not persist, so a more nuanced understanding of the drivers of forest change in the tropics is critical to ensure the success of reforestation efforts and carbon sequestration targets. Here we use 35 years of detailed land cover data to investigate forest trajectories in 3014 municipalities in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF), a biodiversity and conservation hotspot. Although deforestation was evident in some regions, deforestation reversals, the typical forest transition trajectory, were the prevalent trend in the AF, accounting for 38% of municipalities. However, simultaneous reforestation reversals in the region (13% of municipalities) suggest that these short‐term increases in native forest cover do not necessarily translate into persistent trends. In the absence of reversals in reforestation, forests in the region could have sequestered 1.75 Pg C, over three times the actual estimated carbon sequestration (0.52 Pg C). We also showed that failure to distinguish native and planted forests would have masked native forest cover loss in the region and overestimated reforestation by 3.2 Mha and carbon sequestration from natural forest regeneration by 0.37 Pg C. Deforestation reversals were prevalent in urbanized municipalities with limited forest cover and high agricultural productivity, highlighting the importance of favorable socioeconomic conditions in promoting reforestation. Successful forest restoration efforts will require development and enforcement of environmental policies that promote forest regeneration and ensure the permanence of regrowing forests. This is crucial not only for the fate and conservation of the AF, but also for other tropical nations to achieve their restoration and carbon sequestration commitments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The species composition of plant and animal assemblages across the globe has changed substantially over the past century. How do the dynamics of individual species cause this change? We classified species into seven unique categories of temporal dynamics based on the ordered sequence of presences and absences that each species contributes to an assemblage time series. We applied this framework to 14,434 species trajectories comprising 280 assemblages of temperate marine fishes surveyed annually for 20 or more years. Although 90% of the assemblages diverged in species composition from the baseline year, this compositional change was largely driven by only 8% of the species' trajectories. Quantifying the reorganization of assemblages based on species shared temporal dynamics should facilitate the task of monitoring and restoring biodiversity. We suggest ways in which our framework could provide informative measures of compositional change, as well as leverage future research on pattern and process in ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions across the globe are shifting to more arid climates. For shallow lakes, decreasing rainfall volume and timing, changing regional wind patterns and increased evaporation rates alter water regimes so that dry periods occur more frequently and for longer. Drier conditions may affect fauna directly and indirectly through altered physicochemical conditions in lakes. Although many studies have predicted negative effects of such changes on aquatic biodiversity, empirical studies demonstrating these effects are rare. Global warming has caused severe climatic drying in southwestern Australia since the 1970s, so we aimed to determine whether lakes in this region showed impacts on lake hydroperiod, water quality, and α, β and γ diversity of lake invertebrates from 1998 to 2011. Seventeen lakes across a range of salinities were sampled biennially in spring in the Wheatbelt and Great Southern regions of Western Australia. Multivariate analyses were used to identify changes in α, β and γ diversity and examine patterns in physicochemical data. Salinity and average rainfall partially explained patterns in invertebrate richness and assemblage composition. Climatic drying was associated with significant declines in lake depth, increased frequency of dry periods, and reduced α and γ diversity (γ declined from ~300 to ~100 taxa from 1998 to 2011 in the 17 wetlands). In contrast, β diversity remained consistently high, because each lake retained a distinct fauna. Mean α diversity per‐lake declined both in lakes that dried and lakes that did not dry out, but lakes which retained a greater proportion of their maximum depth retained more α diversity. Accumulated losses in α diversity caused the decline in γ diversity likely through shrinking habitat area, fewer stepping stones for dispersal and loss of specific habitat types. Biodiversity loss is thus likely from lakes in drying regions globally. Management actions will need to sustain water depth in lakes to prevent biodiversity loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine species are declining at an unprecedented rate, catalyzing many nations to adopt conservation and management targets within their jurisdictions. However, marine species and the biophysical processes that sustain them are naive to international borders. An understanding of the prevalence of cross‐border species distributions is important for informing high‐level conservation strategies, such as bilateral or regional agreements. Here, we examined 28,252 distribution maps to determine the number and locations of transboundary marine plants and animals. More than 90% of species have ranges spanning at least two jurisdictions, with 58% covering more than 10 jurisdictions. All jurisdictions have at least one transboundary species, with the highest concentrations of transboundary species in the USA, Australia, Indonesia, and the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction. Distributions of mapped biodiversity indicate that overcoming the challenges of multinational governance is critical for a much wider suite of species than migratory megavertebrates and commercially exploited fish stocks—the groups that have received the vast majority of multinational management attention. To effectively protect marine biodiversity, international governance mechanisms (particularly those related to the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Convention on Migratory Species, and Regional Seas Organizations) must be expanded to promote multinational conservation planning, and complimented by a holistic governance framework for biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat degradation and land‐use change driven by the livestock sector are among the major causes of global biodiversity loss. Forests are crucial in maintaining biodiversity and mitigating climate change. Apart from continuing deforestation, forests also face increasing pressure from livestock grazing in the system, which is less understood compared to grasslands. Through a meta‐analysis of 156 articles with 1936 data entries, this study assesses the effect of livestock on forest biodiversity, structure, and functions, varying with livestock types, livestock density, grazing history, and climatic factors. Our results show that livestock overall had a negative impact on the forest structure and functions, reduced species abundance but increased richness. Medium and large mammals, plant communities, and soil were more negatively affected compared to other groups such as birds and invertebrates. Livestock also influenced the role of forests in mitigating climate change. They changed forest carbon stock by reducing plant biomass; however, they did not significantly impact the soil carbon stock or soil greenhouse gas emissions. Ecosystem attributes were more affected in warmer and drier regions and by single species grazing than the mixed grazing. Past livestock grazing history moderates the impacts of livestock, with the strongest negative effect occurred with a history of 1–5 years. Nonetheless, livestock activities also had a positive impact on forest management, such as reducing forest flammability. Our results also indicate the lack of studies on how higher trophic levels respond to livestock disturbances and how grazing intensity moderates the effect, which includes grazing duration and livestock density. The complex responses of forests to livestock in different conditions call for more adaptive management depending on the conservation targets and evolution history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing climate change risks requires collaboration and engagement across all sectors of society. In particular, effective partnerships are needed between research scientists producing new knowledge, policy‐makers and practitioners who apply conservation actions on the ground. We describe the implementation of a model for increasing the application and useability of biodiversity research in climate adaptation policy and practice. The focus of the program was to increase the ability of a state government agency and natural resource practitioners in Australia to manage and protect biodiversity in a changing climate. The model comprised a five‐stage process for enhancing impact (i) initiation of research projects that addressed priority conservation policy and management issues; (ii) co‐design of the research using a collaborative approach involving multiple stakeholders; (iii) implementation of the research and design of decision tools and web‐based resources; (iv) collaborative dissemination of the tools and resources via government and community working groups; and (v) evaluation of research impact. We report on the model development and implementation, and critically reflect on the model's impact. We share the lessons learnt from the challenges of operating within a stakeholder group with diverse objectives and criteria for success, and provide a template for creating an environmental research program with real world impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calcified coralline algae are ecologically important in rocky habitats in the marine photic zone worldwide and there is growing concern that ocean acidification will severely impact them. Laboratory studies of these algae in simulated ocean acidification conditions have revealed wide variability in growth, photosynthesis and calcification responses, making it difficult to assess their future biodiversity, abundance and contribution to ecosystem function. Here, we apply molecular systematic tools to assess the impact of natural gradients in seawater carbonate chemistry on the biodiversity of coralline algae in the Mediterranean and the NW Pacific, link this to their evolutionary history and evaluate their potential future biodiversity and abundance. We found a decrease in the taxonomic diversity of coralline algae with increasing acidification with more than half of the species lost in high pCO2 conditions. Sporolithales is the oldest order (Lower Cretaceous) and diversified when ocean chemistry favoured low Mg calcite deposition; it is less diverse today and was the most sensitive to ocean acidification. Corallinales were also reduced in cover and diversity but several species survived at high pCO2; it is the most recent order of coralline algae and originated when ocean chemistry favoured aragonite and high Mg calcite deposition. The sharp decline in cover and thickness of coralline algal carbonate deposits at high pCO2 highlighted their lower fitness in response to ocean acidification. Reductions in CO2 emissions are needed to limit the risk of losing coralline algal diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological theory suggests that biodiversity has a positive and stabilizing effect on the delivery of ecosystem services. Yet, the impacts of increasing the diversity of cultivated crop species or varieties in agroecosystems are still under scrutiny. The available empirical evidence is scattered in scope, agronomic and geographic contexts, and impacts on ecosystem services may depend on the type of diversification strategy used. To robustly assess the effects of crop diversification in agroecosystems, we compiled the results of 95 meta‐analyses integrating 5156 experiments conducted over 84 experimental years and representing more than 54,500 paired observations on 120 crop species in 85 countries. Overall, our synthesis of experimental data from across the globe shows that crop diversification enhances not only crop production (median effect +14%) but also the associated biodiversity (+24%, i.e., the biodiversity of non‐cultivated plants and animals), and several supporting and regulating ecosystem services including water quality (+51%), pest and disease control (+63%) and soil quality (+11%). However, there was substantial variability in the results for each individual ecosystem service between different diversification strategies such as agroforestry, intercropping, cover crops, crop rotation or variety mixtures. Agroforestry is particularly effective in delivering multiple ecosystem services, that is, water regulation and quality, pest and diseases regulation, associated biodiversity, long‐term soil productivity and quality. Variety mixtures, instead, provide the lowest benefits, whereas the other strategies show intermediate results. Our results highlight that while increasing the diversity of cultivated crop species or varieties in agroecosystems represents a very promising strategy for more sustainable land management, contributing to enhanced yields, enhanced biodiversity and ecosystem services, some crop diversification strategies are more effective than others in supporting key ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities are driving many species to the brink of extinction, and the current distribution of protected areas only weakly alleviates pressure on threatened species. This discrepancy reflects the presence of protected areas on lands available instead of the ecological, evolutionary, or conservation values of species present. Habitat loss consequently continues to impact threatened species, as illustrated by geographic patterns of biodiversity loss for amphibians. Given the need to better align the boundaries of protected areas with at‐risk biodiversity, we assessed the importance of various factors for identifying global and biome‐level conservation priority areas, specifically for amphibians. We identified, mapped, and ranked areas of critical conservation importance for all amphibian species on earth using a new integrative tool that scores the urgency of conserving each species and location based on a combination of species characteristics and ecoregion‐level human impacts. Our integrative approach is novel in that it accounts for likely threats to Data Deficient species, considers the irreplaceability of unique species that are phylogenetically isolated, and addresses the localized conservation implications of species endemicity and projected future human impacts to an ecoregion. For comparison, we also mapped and ranked amphibian biodiversity using species richness and an Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) score proxy. Our integrative approach predicted key regions for amphibian conservation that were not apparent when using a simple species richness or EDGE score proxy‐based approach. Furthermore, by scaling conservation priority scores relative to biome, we identified several temperate and xeric regions of crucial yet overlooked conservation importance for amphibians. Until global amphibian diversity is thoroughly catalogued, we recommend using our integrative scoring approach to set geographic priorities for amphibian habitat protection, while acknowledging that this approach may be complemented by others (e.g., EDGE scores). Our study provides an avenue for avoiding common pitfalls of more simplistic species richness‐based approaches for conservation planning, and can be used to improve the future design of protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one‐sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally significant above‐ and below‐ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature‐based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity‐focused adaptation and nature‐based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old‐forest‐associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity‐focused adaptation and nature‐based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some insect populations are experiencing dramatic declines, endangering the crucial ecosystem services they provide. Yet, other populations appear robust, highlighting the need to better define patterns and underlying drivers of recent change in insect numbers. We examined abundance and biodiversity trends for North American butterflies using a unique citizen‐science dataset that has recorded observations of over 8 million butterflies across 456 species, 503 sites, nine ecoregions, and 26 years. Butterflies are a biodiverse group of pollinators, herbivores, and prey, making them useful bellwethers of environmental change. We found great heterogeneity in butterfly species' abundance trends, aggregating near zero, but with a tendency toward decline. There was strong spatial clustering, however, into regions of increase, decrease, or relative stasis. Recent precipitation and temperature appeared to largely drive these patterns, with butterflies generally declining at increasingly dry and hot sites but increasing at relatively wet or cool sites. In contrast, landscape and butterfly trait predictors had little influence, though abundance trends were slightly more positive around urban areas. Consistent with varying responses by different species, no overall directional change in butterfly species richness or evenness was detected. Overall, a mosaic of butterfly decay and rebound hotspots appeared to largely reflect geographic variability in climate drivers. Ongoing controversy about insect declines might dissipate with a shift in focus to the causes of heterogeneous responses among taxa and sites, with climate change emerging as a key suspect when pollinator communities are broadly impacted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land‐use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]