Search

The performance of 36 models (22 ocean color models and 14 biogeochemical ocean circulation models (BOGCMs)) that estimate depth-integrated marine net primary productivity (NPP) was assessed by comparing their output to in situ 14C data at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) and the Hawaii Ocean Time series (HOT) over nearly two decades. Specifically, skill was assessed based on the models' ability to estimate the observed mean, variability, and trends of NPP. At both sites, more than 90% of the models underestimated mean NPP, with the average bias of the BOGCMs being nearly twice that of the ocean color models. However, the difference in overall skill between the best BOGCM and the best ocean color model at each site was not significant. Between 1989 and 2007, in situ NPP at BATS and HOT increased by an average of nearly 2% per year and was positively correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. The majority of ocean color models produced in situ NPP trends that were closer to the observed trends when chlorophyll-a was derived from high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rather than fluorometric or SeaWiFS data. However, this was a function of time such that average trend magnitude was more accurately estimated over longer time periods. Among BOGCMs, only two individual models successfully produced an increasing NPP trend (one model at each site). We caution against the use of models to assess multiannual changes in NPP over short time periods. Ocean color model estimates of NPP trends could improve if more high quality HPLC chlorophyll-a time series were available.

[1] Results of a single-blind round-robin comparison of satellite primary productivity algorithms are presented. The goal of the round-robin exercise was to determine the accuracy of the algorithms in predicting depth-integrated primary production from information amenable to remote sensing. Twelve algorithms, developed by 10 teams, were evaluated by comparing their ability to estimate depth-integrated daily production (IP, mg C m−2) at 89 stations in geographically diverse provinces. Algorithms were furnished information about the surface chlorophyll concentration, temperature, photosynthetic available radiation, latitude, longitude, and day of the year. Algorithm results were then compared with IP estimates derived from 14C uptake measurements at the same stations. Estimates from the best-performing algorithms were generally within a factor of 2 of the 14C-derived estimates. Many algorithms had systematic biases that can possibly be eliminated by reparameterizing underlying relationships. The performance of the algorithms and degree of correlation with each other were independent of the algorithms’ complexity.