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Water – Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) is a modeling approach for quantifying water resources and water use for all land areas of the Earth that has served science and society since 1996. In this paper, the refinements, new algorithms, and new data of the most recent model version v2.2e are described, together with a thorough evaluation of the simulated water use, streamflow, and terrestrial water storage anomaly against observation data. WaterGAP v2.2e improves the handling of inland sinks and now excludes not only large but also small human-made reservoirs when simulating naturalized conditions. The reservoir and non-irrigation water use data were updated. In addition, the model was calibrated against an updated and extended data set of streamflow observations at 1509 gauging stations. The modifications resulted in a small decrease in the estimated global renewable water resources. The model can now be started using prescribed water storages and other conditions, facilitating data assimilation and near-real-time monitoring and forecast simulations. For specific applications, the model can consider the output of a glacier model, approximate the effect of rising CO2 concentrations on evapotranspiration, or calculate the water temperature in rivers. In the paper, the publicly available standard model output is described, and caveats of the model version are provided alongside the description of the model setup in the ISIMIP3 framework.

Climate models, derived from process understanding, are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts. Hindcast and future simulations provide comprehensive spatiotemporal estimates of climatology that are frequently employed within the environmental sciences community, although the output can be afflicted with bias that impedes direct interpretation. Post-processing bias correction approaches utilise observational data to address this challenge, although they are typically criticised for not being physically justified and not considering uncertainty in the correction. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian bias correction framework that robustly propagates uncertainty and models underlying spatial covariance patterns. Shared latent Gaussian processes are assumed between the in situ observations and climate model output, with the aim of partially preserving the covariance structure from the climate model after bias correction, which is based on well-established physical laws. Results demonstrate added value in modelling shared generating processes under several simulated scenarios, with the most value added for the case of sparse in situ observations and smooth underlying bias. Additionally, the propagation of uncertainty to a simulated final bias-corrected time series is illustrated, which is of key importance to a range of stakeholders, such as climate scientists engaged in impact studies, decision-makers trying to understand the likelihood of particular scenarios and individuals involved in climate change adaption strategies where accurate risk assessment is required for optimal resource allocation. This paper focuses on one-dimensional simulated examples for clarity, although the code implementation is developed to also work on multi-dimensional input data, encouraging follow-on real-world application studies that will further validate performance and remaining limitations. The Bayesian framework supports uncertainty propagation under model adaptations required for specific applications, providing a flexible approach that increases the scope of data assimilation tasks more generally.

Atmospheric emissions from anthropogenic hotspots, i.e., cities, power plants and industrial facilities, can be determined from remote sensing images obtained from airborne and space-based imaging spectrometers. In this paper, we present a Python library for data-driven emission quantification (ddeq) that implements various computationally light methods such as the Gaussian plume inversion, cross-sectional flux method, integrated mass enhancement method and divergence method. The library provides a shared interface for data input and output and tools for pre- and post-processing of data. The shared interface makes it possible to easily compare and benchmark the different methods. The paper describes the theoretical basis of the different emission quantification methods and their implementation in the ddeq library. The application of the methods is demonstrated using Jupyter notebooks included in the library, for example, for NO2 images from the Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI satellite and for synthetic CO2 and NO2 images from the Copernicus CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) satellite constellation. The library can be easily extended for new datasets and methods, providing a powerful community tool for users and developers interested in emission monitoring using remote sensing images.

When comparing model output with historical radiosonde observations, it is usually assumed that a radiosonde has risen exactly above its starting point and has not been displaced by wind. This changed only relatively recently with the availability of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers aboard radiosondes in the late 1990s, but even then the balloon trajectory data were often not transmitted, although this information was the basis for estimating the wind in the first place. Depending on the conditions and time of year, radiosondes can sometimes drift a few hundred kilometres, particularly at the middle latitudes during the winter months. The position errors can lead to non-negligible representation errors when the corresponding observations are assimilated. This paper presents a methodology to compute changes in the balloon position during its vertical ascent, using only limited information, such as the vertical profile of wind contained in the historical observation reports. The sensitivity of the method to various parameters is investigated, such as the vertical resolution of the input data, the assumption about the vertical ascent speed of the balloon, and the departure of the surface of Earth from a sphere. The paper considers modern GNSS sonde data reports for validation, for which the full trajectory of the balloon is available, alongside the reported wind. Evaluation is also conducted by comparison with ERA5 and by conducting low-resolution data assimilation experiments. Overall, the results indicate that the trajectory of the radiosondes can be accurately reconstructed from original data of varying vertical resolutions and that the more accurate balloon position reduces representation errors and, in some cases, systematic errors.

The optimization of aircraft trajectories involves balancing operating costs and climate impact, which are often conflicting objectives. To achieve compromised optimal solutions, higher-level information such as preferences of decision-makers must be taken into account. This paper introduces the SolFinder 1.0 module, a decision-making tool designed to identify eco-efficient aircraft trajectories, which allow for the reduction of the flight's climate impact with limited cost penalties compared to cost-optimal solutions. SolFinder 1.0 offers flexible decision-making options that allow users to select trade-offs between different objective functions, including fuel use, flight time, NOx emissions, contrail distance, and climate impact. The module is included in the AirTraf 3.0 submodel, which optimizes trajectories under atmospheric conditions simulated by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model. This paper focuses on the ability of the module to identify eco-efficient trajectories while solving a bi-objective optimization problem that minimizes climate impact and operating costs. SolFinder 1.0 enables users to explore trajectory properties at varying locations of the Pareto fronts without prior knowledge of the problem results and to identify solutions that limit the cost of reducing the climate impact of a single flight.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is one of the biggest international efforts aimed at better understanding the past, present, and future of climate changes in a multi-model context. A total of 21 model intercomparison projects (MIPs) were endorsed in its sixth phase (CMIP6), which included 190 different experiments that were used to simulate 40 000 years and produced around 40 PB of data in total. This paper presents the main findings obtained from the CPMIP (the Computational Performance Model Intercomparison Project), a collection of a common set of metrics, specifically designed for assessing climate model performance. These metrics were exclusively collected from the production runs of experiments used in CMIP6 and primarily from institutions within the IS-ENES3 consortium. The document presents the full set of CPMIP metrics per institution and experiment, including a detailed analysis and discussion of each of the measurements. During the analysis, we found a positive correlation between the core hours needed, the complexity of the models, and the resolution used. Likewise, we show that between 5 %–15 % of the execution cost is spent in the coupling between independent components, and it only gets worse by increasing the number of resources. From the data, it is clear that queue times have a great impact on the actual speed achieved and have a huge variability across different institutions, ranging from none to up to 78 % execution overhead. Furthermore, our evaluation shows that the estimated carbon footprint of running such big simulations within the IS-ENES3 consortium is 1692 t of CO2 equivalent. As a result of the collection, we contribute to the creation of a comprehensive database for future community reference, establishing a benchmark for evaluation and facilitating the multi-model, multi-platform comparisons crucial for understanding climate modelling performance. Given the diverse range of applications, configurations, and hardware utilised, further work is required for the standardisation and formulation of general rules. The paper concludes with recommendations for future exercises aimed at addressing the encountered challenges which will facilitate more collections of a similar nature.

Accurate modeling of ash clouds from volcanic eruptions requires knowledge about the eruption source parameters including eruption onset, duration, mass eruption rates, particle size distribution, and vertical-emission profiles. However, most of these parameters are unknown and must be estimated somehow. Some are estimated based on observed correlations and known volcano parameters. However, a more accurate estimate is often needed to bring the model into closer agreement with observations. This paper describes the inversion procedure implemented at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for estimating ash emission rates from retrieved satellite ash column amounts and a priori knowledge. The overall procedure consists of five stages: (1) generate a priori emission estimates, (2) run forward simulations with a set of unit emission profiles, (3) collocate/match observations with emission simulations, (4) build system of linear equations, and (5) solve overdetermined systems. We go through the mathematical foundations for the inversion procedure, performance for synthetic cases, and performance for real-world cases. The novelties of this paper include a memory efficient formulation of the inversion problem, a detailed description and illustrations of the mathematical formulations, evaluation of the inversion method using synthetic known-truth data as well as real data, and inclusion of observations of ash cloud-top height. The source code used in this work is freely available under an open-source license and is able to be used for other similar applications.

This article introduces PyRTlib, a new standalone Python package for non-scattering line-by-line microwave radiative transfer simulations. PyRTlib is a flexible and user-friendly tool for computing down- and upwelling brightness temperatures and related quantities (e.g., atmospheric absorption, optical depth, opacity, mean radiating temperature) written in Python, a language commonly used nowadays for scientific software development, especially by students and early-career scientists. PyRTlib allows for simulating observations from ground-based, airborne, and satellite microwave sensors in clear-sky and in cloudy conditions (under non-scattering Rayleigh approximation). The intention for PyRTlib is not to be a competitor to state-of-the-art atmospheric radiative transfer codes that excel in speed and/or versatility (e.g., ARTS, Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator; RTTOV, Radiative Transfer for TOVS (Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder)). The intention is to provide an educational tool, completely written in Python, to readily simulate atmospheric microwave radiative transfer from a variety of input profiles, including predefined climatologies, global radiosonde archives, and model reanalysis. The paper presents quick examples for the built-in modules to access popular open data archives. The paper also presents examples for computing the simulated brightness temperature for different platforms (ground-based, airborne, and satellite), using various input profiles, showing how to easily modify other relevant parameters, such as the observing angle (zenith, nadir, slant), surface emissivity, and gas absorption model. PyRTlib can be easily embedded in other Python codes needing atmospheric microwave radiative transfer (e.g., surface emissivity models and retrievals). Despite its simplicity, PyRTlib can be readily used to produce present-day scientific results, as demonstrated by two examples showing (i) an absorption model comparison and validation with ground-based radiometric observations and (ii) uncertainty propagation of spectroscopic parameters through the radiative transfer calculations following a rigorous approach. To our knowledge, the uncertainty estimate is not provided by any other currently available microwave radiative transfer code, making PyRTlib unique for this aspect in the atmospheric microwave radiative transfer code scenario.

Borehole data are essential for conducting precise urban geological surveys and large-scale geological investigations. Traditionally, explicit modelling and implicit modelling have been the primary methods for visualizing borehole data and constructing 3D geological models. However, explicit modelling requires substantial manual labour, while implicit modelling faces problems related to uncertainty analysis. Recently, machine learning approaches have emerged as effective solutions for addressing these issues in 3D geological modelling. Nevertheless, the use of machine learning methods for constructing 3D geological models is often limited by insufficient training data. In this paper, we propose the semi-supervised deep learning using pseudo-labels (SDLP) algorithm to overcome the issue of insufficient training data. Specifically, we construct the pseudo-labels in the training dataset using the triangular irregular network (TIN) method. A 3D geological model is constructed using borehole data obtained from a real building engineering project in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, NE China. Then, we compare the results of the 3D geological model constructed based on SDLP with those constructed by a support vector machine (SVM) method and an implicit Hermite radial basis function (HRBF) modelling method. Compared to the 3D geological models constructed using the HRBF algorithm and the SVM algorithm, the 3D geological model constructed based on the SDLP algorithm better conforms to the sedimentation patterns of the region. The findings demonstrate that our proposed method effectively resolves the issues of insufficient training data when using machine learning methods and the inability to perform uncertainty analysis when using the implicit method. In conclusion, the semi-supervised deep learning method with pseudo-labelling proposed in this paper provides a solution for 3D geological modelling in engineering project areas with borehole data.

Anthropogenic climate change is changing the Earth system processes that control the characteristics of natural hazards both globally and across Australia. Model projections of hazards under future climate change are necessary for effective adaptation. This paper presents BARPA-R (the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia), a regional climate model designed to downscale climate projections over the Australasian region with the purpose of investigating future hazards. BARPA-R, a limited-area model, has a 17 km horizontal grid spacing and makes use of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmospheric model and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. To establish credibility and in compliance with the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) experiment design, the BARPA-R framework has been used to downscale ERA5 reanalysis. Here, an assessment of this evaluation experiment is provided. Performance-based evaluation results are benchmarked against ERA5, with comparable performance between the free-running BARPA-R simulations and observationally constrained reanalysis interpreted as a good result. First, an examination of BARPA-R's representation of Australia's surface air temperature, precipitation, and 10 m winds finds good performance overall, with biases including a 1 ∘C cold bias in daily maximum temperatures, reduced diurnal temperature range, and wet biases up to 25 mm per month in inland Australia. Recent trends in daily maximum temperatures are consistent with observational products, while trends in minimum temperatures show overestimated warming and trends in precipitation show underestimated wetting in northern Australia. Precipitation and temperature teleconnections are effectively represented in BARPA-R when present in the driving boundary conditions, while 10 m winds are improved over ERA5 in six out of eight of the Australian regions considered. Secondly, the paper considers the representation of large-scale atmospheric circulation features and weather systems. While generally well represented, convection-related features such as tropical cyclones, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the Northwest Cloudband, and the monsoon westerlies show more divergence from observations and internal interannual variability than mid-latitude phenomena such as the westerly jets and extratropical cyclones. Having simulated a realistic Australasian climate, the BARPA-R framework will be used to downscale two climate change scenarios from seven CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs).

This paper develops a calibration methodology of the artificial absorbing techniques typically used by Fourier pseudo-spectral time-domain (PSTD) methods for geoacoustic wave simulations. Specifically, we consider the damped wave equation (DWE) that results from adding a dissipation term to the original wave equation, the sponge boundary layer (SBL) that applies an exponentially decaying factor directly to the wavefields, and finally, a classical split formulation of the perfectly matched layer (PML). These three techniques belong to the same family of absorbing boundary layers (ABLs), where outgoing waves and edge reflections are progressively damped across a grid zone of NABL consecutive layers. The ABLs used are compatible with a pure Fourier formulation of PSTD. We first characterize the three ABLs with respect to multiple sets of NABL and their respective absorption parameters for homogeneous media. Next, we validate our findings in heterogeneous media of increasing complexity, starting with a layered medium and finishing with the SEG/EAGE 3D salt model. Finally, we algorithmically compare the three PSTD–ABL methods in terms of memory demands and computational cost. An interesting result is that PML, despite outperforming the absorption of the other two ABLs for a given NABL value, requires approximately double the computational time. The parameter configurations reported in this paper can be readily used for PSTD simulations in other test cases, and the ABL calibration methodology can be applied to other wave propagation schemes.

Methane is the second-most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and accounts for around 10 % of total European Union greenhouse gas emissions. Given that the atmospheric methane budget over a region depends on its terrestrial and aquatic methane sources, inverse modelling techniques appear as powerful tools for identifying critical areas that can later be submitted to emission mitigation strategies. In this regard, an inverse modelling system of methane emissions for Europe is being implemented based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model: the Aarhus University Methane Inversion Algorithm (AUMIA) v1.0. The forward modelling component of AUMIA consists of the WRF model coupled to a multipurpose global database of methane anthropogenic emissions. To assure transport consistency during the inversion process, the backward modelling component will be based on the WRF model coupled to a Lagrangian particle dispersion module. A description of the modelling tools, input data sets, and 1-year forward modelling evaluation from 1 April 2018 to 31 March 2019 is provided in this paper. The a posteriori methane emission estimates, including a more focused inverse modelling for Denmark, will be provided in a second paper. A good general agreement is found between the modelling results and observations based on the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite. Model–observation discrepancies for the summer peak season are in line with previous studies conducted over urban areas in central Europe, with relative differences between simulated concentrations and observational data in this study ranging from 1 % to 2 %. Domain-wide correlation coefficients and root-mean-square errors for summer months ranged from 0.4 to 0.5 and from 27 to 30 ppb, respectively. On the other hand, model–observation discrepancies for winter months show a significant overestimation of anthropogenic emissions over the study region, with relative differences ranging from 2 % to 3 %. Domain-wide correlation coefficients and root-mean-square errors in this case ranged from 0.1 to 0.4 and from 33 to 50 ppb, respectively, indicating that a more refined inverse analysis assessment will be required for this season. According to modelling results, the methane enhancement above the background concentrations came almost entirely from anthropogenic sources; however, these sources contributed with only up to 2 % to the methane total-column concentration. Contributions from natural sources (wetlands and termites) and biomass burning were not relevant during the study period. The results found in this study contribute with a new model evaluation of methane concentrations over Europe and demonstrate a huge potential for methane inverse modelling using improved TROPOMI products in large-scale applications.

Using climate-optimized flight trajectories is one essential measure to reduce aviation's climate impact. Detailed knowledge of temporal and spatial climate sensitivity for aviation emissions in the atmosphere is required to realize such a climate mitigation measure. The algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) represent the basis for such purposes. This paper presents the first version of the Algorithmic Climate Change Function submodel (ACCF 1.0) within the European Centre HAMburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model framework. In the ACCF 1.0, we implement a set of aCCFs (version 1.0) to estimate the average temperature response over 20 years (ATR20) resulting from aviation CO2 emissions and non-CO2 impacts, such as NOx emissions (via ozone production and methane destruction), water vapour emissions, and contrail cirrus. While the aCCF concept has been introduced in previous research, here, we publish a consistent set of aCCF formulas in terms of fuel scenario, metric, and efficacy for the first time. In particular, this paper elaborates on contrail aCCF development, which has not been published before. ACCF 1.0 uses the simulated atmospheric conditions at the emission location as input to calculate the ATR20 per unit of fuel burned, per NOx emitted, or per flown kilometre. In this research, we perform quality checks of the ACCF 1.0 outputs in two aspects. Firstly, we compare climatological values calculated by ACCF 1.0 to previous studies. The comparison confirms that in the Northern Hemisphere between 150–300 hPa altitude (flight corridor), the vertical and latitudinal structure of NOx-induced ozone and H2O effects are well represented by the ACCF model output. The NOx-induced methane effects increase towards lower altitudes and higher latitudes, which behaves differently from the existing literature. For contrail cirrus, the climatological pattern of the ACCF model output corresponds with the literature, except that contrail-cirrus aCCF generates values at low altitudes near polar regions, which is caused by the conditions set up for contrail formation. Secondly, we evaluate the reduction of NOx-induced ozone effects through trajectory optimization, employing the tagging chemistry approach (contribution approach to tag species according to their emission categories and to inherit these tags to other species during the subsequent chemical reactions). The simulation results show that climate-optimized trajectories reduce the radiative forcing contribution from aviation NOx-induced ozone compared to cost-optimized trajectories. Finally, we couple the ACCF 1.0 to the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf version 2.0 and demonstrate the variability of the flight trajectories when the efficacy of individual effects is considered. Based on the 1 d simulation results of a subset of European flights, the total ATR20 of the climate-optimized flights is significantly lower (roughly 50 % less) than that of the cost-optimized flights, with the most considerable contribution from contrail cirrus. The CO2 contribution observed in this study is low compared with the non-CO2 effects, which requires further diagnosis.

A statistical model called the sea level simulator v1.0 is introduced. The model integrates mean sea level change and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework that is useful for coastal spatial planning. Given a user-defined planning period, the model can estimate the flood risk as a function of height above the current mean sea level. These flood risk estimates are derived through Monte Carlo simulations of a very large number of planning periods. The derived flood risk is contingent on user-assigned probabilities for future greenhouse gas emission pathways, and the model is thus also useful for quantifying the dependence of flood risk on such pathways and their probabilities. Moreover, the simulator can quantify whether flood risk is dominated by sea level extremes or mean sea level rise and how this depends on the length of the planning period. The code, written in MATLAB, is parallelized and lightweight enough that it can be run on an ordinary PC. The code is easily adaptable to include new locations, new mean sea level projections and similar model developments. The flood risk estimates derived from the simulator are well suited to tackle adaptation and decision problems. Applications for construction of coastal protection and land development in coastal areas have been demonstrated in the past. The paper gives an in-depth technical description of the model. Example simulations from a Swedish nuclear site are also given, and the capabilities of the simulator are discussed. The main aim of the paper is to work as a technical reference for the first public release of the sea level simulator.

In this paper we introduce a new software framework for the offline calculation of tracer transport in the ocean. The Fast Equilibration of Ocean Tracers Software (FEOTS) is an end-to-end set of tools to efficiently calculate tracer distributions on a global or regional sub-domain using transport operators diagnosed from a comprehensive ocean model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of a transport matrix model to an eddying ocean state. While a Newton–Krylov-based equilibration capability is still under development and not presented here, we demonstrate in this paper the transient modeling capabilities of FEOTS in an application focused on the Argentine Basin, where intense eddy activity and the Zapiola Anticyclone lead to strong mixing of water masses. The demonstration illustrates progress in developing offline passive tracer simulation capabilities, while highlighting the challenges of the impulse response functions approach in capturing tracer transports by a non-linear advection scheme. Our future work will focus on improving the computational efficiency of the code to reduce time-to-solution, using different basis functions to better represent non-linear advection operators, applying FEOTS to a parent model with unstructured grids (Ocean Model for Prediction Across Scales, MPAS-Ocean), and fully implementing a Newton–Krylov steady-state solver.

HBr emissions from volcanoes lead rapidly to the formation of BrO within volcanic plumes and have an impact on tropospheric chemistry, at least at the local and regional scales. The motivation of this paper is to prepare a framework for further 3D modelling of volcanic halogen emissions in order to determine their fate within the volcanic plume and then in the atmosphere at the regional and global scales. The main aim is to evaluate the ability of the model to produce a realistic partitioning of bromine species within a grid box size typical of MOCAGE (Model Of atmospheric Chemistry At larGE scale) 3D (0.5∘ × 0.5∘). This work is based on a 1D single-column configuration of the global chemistry-transport model MOCAGE that has low enough computational cost to allow us to perform a large set of sensitivity simulations. This paper uses the emissions from the Mount Etna eruption on 10 May 2008. Several reactions are added to MOCAGE to represent the volcanic plume halogen chemistry. A simple plume parameterisation is also implemented and tested. The use of this parameterisation tends to only slightly limit the efficiency of BrO net production. Both simulations with and without the parameterisation give results for the partitioning of the bromine species, of ozone depletion and of the BrO/SO2 ratio that are consistent with previous studies. A series of test experiments were performed to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the composition of the emissions (primary sulfate aerosols, Br radical and NO) and to the effective radius assumed for the volcanic sulfate aerosols. Simulations show that the plume chemistry is sensitive to all these parameters. We also find that the maximum altitude of the eruption changes the BrO production, which is linked to the vertical variability of the concentrations of oxidants in the background air. These sensitivity tests display changes in the bromine chemistry cycles that are generally at least as important as the plume parameterisation. Overall, the version of the MOCAGE chemistry developed for this study is suitable to produce the expected halogen chemistry in volcanic plumes during daytime and night-time.

In response to an increasing demand for bespoke or tailored regional ocean modelling configurations, we outline fundamental principles and practices that can expedite the process to generate new configurations. The paper develops the principle of reproducibility and advocates adherence by presenting benefits to the community and user. The elements of this principle are reproducible workflows and standardised assessment, with additional effort over existing working practices being balanced against the added value generated. The paper then decomposes the complex build process, for a new regional ocean configuration, into stages and presents guidance, advice and insight for each component. This advice is compiled from across the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) user community and sets out principles and practises that encompass regional ocean modelling with any model. With detailed and region-specific worked examples in Sects. 3 and 4, the linked companion repositories and DOIs all target NEMOv4. The aim of this review and perspective paper is to broaden the user community skill base and to accelerate development of new configurations in order to increase the time available for exploiting the configurations.

In the ocean, mesoscale or submesoscale structures and coastal processes are associated with fine scales. The simulation of such features thus requires the hydrodynamic equations to be solved at high-resolution (from a few hundred meters down to a few tens of meters). Therefore, local mesh refinement is a primary issue for regional and coastal modeling. The AGRIF (adaptive grid refinement in Fortran) library is committed to tackling such a challenge for structured grids. It has been implemented in MARS3D (Model for Application at Regional Scale), a semi-implicit, free-surface numerical model developed by Ifremer (the French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea) for coastal environmental research and studies. As its time scheme uses an alternating-direction implicit (ADI) algorithm, the two-way nesting implementation differs from the one in explicit models. The present paper describes the specifics of the AGRIF introduction and how the nesting preserves some essential properties (mass, momentum and tracer conservations) along with the induced constraints (bathymetric coherence between grids and increase in computation cost). The use and the performance of this new tool are detailed over two configurations that illustrate the wide range of scales and resolutions typically targeted by coastal applications. The first one is based on multiple high-resolution (500 m) grids that pave the coastal ocean over thousands of kilometers, allowing a continuum between the regional and coastal scales. The second application is more local and has a finer resolution (50 m). It targets a recurrent question for semi-enclosed bays, i.e., the renewal time indicator. Throughout these configurations, the paper intends to compare the two-way nesting method with the traditional one-way approach. It highlights how the MARS3D-AGRIF tool proves to be an efficient way to both improve the physical hydrodynamics and unravel ecological challenges.

This paper provides a description of ICLASS 1.1, a variational Inverse modelling framework for the Chemistry Land-surface Atmosphere Soil Slab model. This framework can be used to study the atmospheric boundary layer, surface layer, or the exchange of gases, moisture, heat, and momentum between the land surface and the lower atmosphere. The general aim of the framework is to allow the assimilation of various streams of observations (fluxes, mixing ratios at multiple heights, etc.) to estimate model parameters, thereby obtaining a physical model that is consistent with a diverse set of observations. The framework allows the retrieval of parameters in an objective manner and enables the estimation of information that is difficult to obtain directly by observations, for example, free tropospheric mixing ratios or stomatal conductances. Furthermore, it allows the estimation of possible biases in observations. Modelling the carbon cycle at the ecosystem level is one of the main intended fields of application. The physical model around which the framework is constructed is relatively simple yet contains the core physics to simulate the essentials of a well-mixed boundary layer and of the land–atmosphere exchange. The model includes an explicit description of the atmospheric surface layer, a region where scalars show relatively large gradients with height. An important challenge is the strong non-linearity of the model, which complicates the estimation of the best parameter values. The constructed adjoint of the tangent linear model can be used to mitigate this challenge. The adjoint allows for an analytical gradient of the objective cost function, which is used for minimisation of this function. An implemented Monte Carlo way of running ICLASS can further help to handle non-linearity and provides posterior statistics on the estimated parameters. The paper provides a technical description of the framework, includes a validation of the adjoint code, in addition to tests for the full inverse modelling framework, and a successful example application for a grassland in the Netherlands.

This paper presents the AirGAM 2022r1 model – an air quality trend and prediction model developed at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) in cooperation with the European Environment Agency (EEA) over 2017–2021. AirGAM is based on nonlinear regression GAMs – generalised additive models – capable of estimating trends in daily measured pollutant concentrations at air quality monitoring stations, discounting for the effects of trends and time variations in corresponding meteorological data. The model has been developed primarily for the compounds NO2, O3, PM10, and PM2.5. Meteorological input data consist of temperature, wind speed and direction, planetary boundary layer height, relative and absolute humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation over the period considered. The exact set of meteorological variables used in the model depends on the compound selected for analysis. In addition to meteorological variables introduced in the model as covariates, i.e. explanatory variables for the concentration levels, the model also incorporates time variables such as the day of the week, day of the year, and overall time, which is related to the model's trend term. The trend analysis is performed at each station separately. Thus, the model only considers the temporal features of concentrations and meteorology at a station, rather than any spatial correlations or dependencies between stations. AirGAM is implemented using the R language for statistical computing and, in particular, the GAM package mgcv. In the model, meteorological and time covariates are represented and estimated as smooth nonlinear functions of the corresponding variables. Thus, the trend term is defined and estimated as a smooth nonlinear function of time over the period selected for analysis. Once fitted to training data, the model may be used as a prediction tool capable of predicting air pollutant concentrations for new sets of meteorological and time data which are not in the training set – e.g. for cross-validation or forecasting purposes. The model does not explicitly use emissions or background concentrations – these are sought to be implicitly represented through the estimated nonlinear relations between meteorology, time, and concentrations. In addition to meteorology-adjusted trends, the program also produces unadjusted trends – i.e. trends based on the same regression set-up but only including the time covariates. Both types of trends can be output in the same run, making it possible to compare them. Ideally, the meteorology-adjusted trend will show the trend in concentration mainly due to changes in emissions or physicochemical processes not induced by changes in meteorology. AirGAM has been developed and tested primarily in trend studies based on measurement data hosted by the EEA, including the AirBase data (before 2013) and the Air Quality e-Reporting (AQER) data from 2013 and onwards. Still, the model is general and could be applied in other regions with other input data. The EEA data provide daily or hourly surface measurements at individual monitoring stations in Europe. For input meteorological data, we extract time series from the gridded meteorological re-analysis (ERA5) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for each monitoring station. The paper presents results with the model for all AirBase/AQER stations in Europe from the latest EEA trend study for 2005–2019.

The land surface, hydrological, and groundwater modelling communities all have expertise in simulating the hydrological processes at play in the terrestrial component of the Earth system. However, these communities, and the wider Earth system modelling community, have largely remained distinct with limited collaboration between disciplines, hindering progress in the representation of hydrological processes in the land component of Earth system models (ESMs). In order to address key societal questions regarding the future availability of water resources and the intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts in a changing climate, these communities must come together and build on the strengths of one another to produce next-generation land system models that are able to adequately simulate the terrestrial water cycle under change. The development of a common modelling infrastructure can contribute to stimulating cross-fertilisation by structuring and standardising the interactions. This paper presents such an infrastructure, a land system framework, which targets an intermediate level of complexity and constrains interfaces between components (and communities) and, in doing so, aims to facilitate an easier pipeline between the development of (sub-)community models and their integration, both for standalone use and for use in ESMs. This paper first outlines the conceptual design and technical capabilities of the framework; thereafter, its usage and useful characteristics are demonstrated through case studies. The main innovations presented here are (1) the interfacing constraints themselves; (2) the implementation in Python (the Unified Framework for Hydrology, unifhy); and (3) the demonstration of standalone use cases using the framework. The existing framework does not yet meet all our goals, in particular, of directly supporting integration into larger ESMs, so we conclude with the remaining limitations of the current framework and necessary future developments.

Strongly coupled nonlinear phenomena such as those described by Earth system models (ESMs) are composed of multiple component models with independent mesh topologies and scalable numerical solvers. A common operation in ESMs is to remap or interpolate component solution fields defined on their computational mesh to another mesh with a different combinatorial structure and decomposition, e.g., from the atmosphere to the ocean, during the temporal integration of the coupled system. Several remapping schemes are currently in use or available for ESMs. However, a unified approach to compare the properties of these different schemes has not been attempted previously. We present a rigorous methodology for the evaluation and intercomparison of remapping methods through an independently implemented suite of metrics that measure the ability of a method to adhere to constraints such as grid independence, monotonicity, global conservation, and local extrema or feature preservation. A comprehensive set of numerical evaluations is conducted based on a progression of scalar fields from idealized and smooth to more general climate data with strong discontinuities and strict bounds. We examine four remapping algorithms with distinct design approaches, namely ESMF Regrid (Hill et al., 2004), TempestRemap (Ullrich and Taylor, 2015), generalized moving least squares (GMLS) (Trask and Kuberry, 2020) with post-processing filters, and WLS-ENOR (Li et al., 2020). By repeated iterative application of the high-order remapping methods to the test fields, we verify the accuracy of each scheme in terms of their observed convergence order for smooth data and determine the bounded error propagation using challenging, realistic field data on both uniform and regionally refined mesh cases. In addition to retaining high-order accuracy under idealized conditions, the methods also demonstrate robust remapping performance when dealing with non-smooth data. There is a failure to maintain monotonicity in the traditional L2-minimization approaches used in ESMF and TempestRemap, in contrast to stable recovery through nonlinear filters used in both meshless GMLS and hybrid mesh-based WLS-ENOR schemes. Local feature preservation analysis indicates that high-order methods perform better than low-order dissipative schemes for all test cases. The behavior of these remappers remains consistent when applied on regionally refined meshes, indicating mesh-invariant implementations. The MIRA intercomparison protocol proposed in this paper and the detailed comparison of the four algorithms demonstrate that the new schemes, namely GMLS and WLS-ENOR, are competitive compared to standard conservative minimization methods requiring computation of mesh intersections. The work presented in this paper provides a foundation that can be extended to include complex field definitions, realistic mesh topologies, and spectral element discretizations, thereby allowing for a more complete analysis of production-ready remapping packages.

Hutton et al. (2016) argued that computational hydrology can only be a proper science if the hydrological community makes sure that hydrological model studies are executed and presented in a reproducible manner. Hut, Drost and van de Giesen replied that to achieve this hydrologists should not “re-invent the water wheel” but rather use existing technology from other fields (such as containers and ESMValTool) and open interfaces (such as the Basic Model Interface, BMI) to do their computational science (Hut et al., 2017). With this paper and the associated release of the eWaterCycle platform and software package (available on Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5119389, Verhoeven et al., 2022), we are putting our money where our mouth is and providing the hydrological community with a “FAIR by design” (FAIR meaning findable, accessible, interoperable, and reproducible) platform to do science. The eWaterCycle platform separates the experiments done on the model from the model code. In eWaterCycle, hydrological models are accessed through a common interface (BMI) in Python and run inside of software containers. In this way all models are accessed in a similar manner facilitating easy switching of models, model comparison and model coupling. Currently the following models and model suites are available through eWaterCycle: PCR-GLOBWB 2.0, wflow, Hype, LISFLOOD, MARRMoT, and WALRUS While these models are written in different programming languages they can all be run and interacted with from the Jupyter notebook environment within eWaterCycle. Furthermore, the pre-processing of input data for these models has been streamlined by making use of ESMValTool. Forcing for the models available in eWaterCycle from well-known datasets such as ERA5 can be generated with a single line of code. To illustrate the type of research that eWaterCycle facilitates, this paper includes five case studies: from a simple “hello world” where only a hydrograph is generated to a complex coupling of models in different languages. In this paper we stipulate the design choices made in building eWaterCycle and provide all the technical details to understand and work with the platform. For system administrators who want to install eWaterCycle on their infrastructure we offer a separate installation guide. For computational hydrologists that want to work with eWaterCycle we also provide a video explaining the platform from a user point of view (https://youtu.be/eE75dtIJ1lk, last access: 28 June 2022)​​​​​​​. With the eWaterCycle platform we are providing the hydrological community with a platform to conduct their research that is fully compatible with the principles of both Open Science and FAIR science.

To support the needs of practitioners regarding 3D geological modelling and uncertainty quantification in the field, in particular from the mining industry, we propose a Python package called loopUI-0.1 that provides a set of local and global indicators to measure uncertainty and features dissimilarities among an ensemble of voxet models. Results are presented of a survey launched among practitioners in the mineral industry, enquiring about their modelling and uncertainty quantification practice and needs. It reveals that practitioners acknowledge the importance of uncertainty quantification even if they do not perform it. A total of four main factors preventing practitioners performing uncertainty quantification were identified: a lack of data uncertainty quantification, (computing) time requirement to generate one model, poor tracking of assumptions and interpretations and relative complexity of uncertainty quantification. The paper reviews and proposes solutions to alleviate these issues. Elements of an answer to these problems are already provided in the special issue hosting this paper and more are expected to come.

This work presents the first step in the development of the VISION toolkit, a set of Python tools that allows easy, efficient, and more meaningful comparison between global atmospheric models and observational data. Whilst observational data and modelling capabilities are expanding in parallel, there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. This arises from differences in spatial and temporal sampling between models and observational platforms: observational data from a research aircraft, for example, are sampled on specified flight trajectories at very high temporal resolution. Proper comparison with model data requires generating, storing, and handling a large number of highly temporally resolved model files, resulting in a process which is data-, labour-, and time-intensive. In this paper we focus on comparison between model data and in situ observations (from aircraft, ships, buoys, sondes, etc.). A standalone code, In-Situ Observations Simulator, or ISO_simulator for short, is described here: this software reads modelled variables and observational data files and outputs model data interpolated in space and time to match observations. These model data are then written to NetCDF files that can be efficiently archived due to their small sizes and directly compared to observations. This method achieves a large reduction in the size of model data being produced for comparison with flight and other in situ data. By interpolating global gridded hourly files onto observation locations, we reduce data output for a typical climate resolution run, from ∼3 Gb per model variable per month to ∼15 Mb per model variable per month (a 200-times reduction in data volume). The VISION toolkit is relatively fast to run and can be automated to process large volumes of data at once, allowing efficient data analysis over a large number of years. Although this code was initially tested within the Unified Model (UM) framework, which is shared by the UK Earth System Model (UKESM), it was written as a flexible tool and it can be extended to work with other models.

Simple climate models (also known as emulators) have re-emerged as critical tools for the analysis of climate policy. Emulators are efficient and highly parameterised, where the parameters are tunable to produce a diversity of global mean surface temperature (GMST) response pathways to a given emission scenario. Only a small fraction of possible parameter combinations will produce historically consistent climate hindcasts, a necessary condition for trust in future projections. Alongside historical GMST, additional observed (e.g. ocean heat content) and emergent climate metrics (such as the equilibrium climate sensitivity) can be used as constraints upon the parameter sets used for climate projections. This paper describes a multi-variable constraining package for the Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) simple climate model (FaIR versions 2.1.0 onwards) using a Bayesian framework. The steps are, first, to generate prior distributions of parameters for FaIR based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Earth system models or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-assessed ranges; second, to generate a large Monte Carlo prior ensemble of parameters to run FaIR with; and, third, to produce a posterior set of parameters constrained on several observable and assessed climate metrics. Different calibrations can be produced for different emission datasets or observed climate constraints, allowing version-controlled and continually updated calibrations to be produced. We show that two very different future projections to a given emission scenario can be obtained using emissions from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) (fair-calibrate v1.4.0) and from updated emission datasets through 2022 (fair-calibrate v1.4.1) for similar climate constraints in both cases. fair-calibrate can be reconfigured for different source emission datasets or target climate distributions, and new versions will be produced upon availability of new climate system data.

Identifying PM2.5 chemical components is crucial for formulating emission strategies, estimating radiative forcing, and assessing human health effects. However, accurately describing spatiotemporal variations in PM2.5 chemical components remains a challenge. In our earlier work, we developed an aerosol extinction coefficient data assimilation (DA) system (Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v1.0) that was suboptimal for chemical components. This paper introduces a novel hybrid nonlinear chemical DA system (NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0) to accurately interpret key chemical components (SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, OC, and EC). NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 improves upon v1.0 by effectively handling and balancing stability and nonlinearity in chemical DA, which is achieved by incorporating the non-Gaussian distribution ensemble perturbation and hybrid localized Kalman–nonlinear ensemble transform filter with an adaptive forgetting factor for the first time. The dependence tests demonstrate that NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 provides excellent DA results with a minimal ensemble size of 10, surpassing previous reports and v1.0. A 1-month DA experiment shows that the analysis field generated by NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 is in good agreement with observations, especially in reducing the underestimation of NH4+ and NO3- and the overestimation of SO42-, OC, and EC. In particular, the Pearson correlation coefficient (CORR) values for NO3-, OC, and EC are above 0.96, and the R2 values are above 0.93. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 also demonstrates superior spatiotemporal interpretation, with most DA sites showing improvements of over 50 %–200 % in CORR and over 50 %–90 % in RMSE for the five chemical components. Compared to the poor performance in the global reanalysis dataset (CORR: 0.42–0.55, RMSE: 4.51–12.27 µg m−3) and NAQPMS-PDAF v1.0 (CORR: 0.35–0.98, RMSE: 2.46–15.50 µg m−3), NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has the highest CORR of 0.86–0.99 and the lowest RMSE of 0.14–3.18 µg m−3. The uncertainties in ensemble DA are also examined, further highlighting the potential of NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 for advancing aerosol chemical component studies.

This paper presents the development of a stochastic particle method to simulate advection in regional-scale models with a particle-resolving aerosol representation. The new method is based on finite-volume discretizations with the flux terms interpreted as probabilities of particle transport between grid cells. We analyze the method in 1D and show that the stochastic particle sampling during transport injects energy at high spatial frequencies, which can be partially compensated for with the choice of a dissipative odd-order finite-volume scheme. We then apply the stochastic third- and fifth-order advection algorithms with monotonic limiters in WRF-PartMC, using idealized and realistic wind fields in 2D and 3D. In all cases we observe the expected convergence rates of the stochastic particle method to the finite-volume solution as the number of computational particles is increased. This work enables the use of particle-based aerosol models on the regional scale.

Emulators of Earth system models (ESMs) are statistical models that approximate selected outputs of ESMs. Owing to their runtime efficiency, emulators are especially useful when large amounts of data are required, for example, for in-depth exploration of the emission space, for investigating high-impact low-probability events, or for estimating uncertainties and variability. This paper introduces an emulation framework that allows us to emulate gridded monthly mean precipitation fields using gridded monthly mean temperature fields as forcing. The emulator is designed as an extension of the Modular Earth System Model Emulator (MESMER) framework, and its core relies on the concepts of generalised linear models (GLMs). Precipitation at each (land) grid point and for each month is approximated as a multiplicative model with two factors. The first factor entails the temperature-driven precipitation response and is assumed to follow a gamma distribution with a logarithmic link function. The second factor is the residual variability in the precipitation field, which is assumed to be independent of temperature but may still possess spatial precipitation correlations. Therefore, the monthly residual field is decomposed into independent principal components and subsequently approximated and sampled using a kernel density estimation with a Gaussian kernel. The emulation framework is tested and validated using 24 ESMs from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). For each ESM, we train on a single-ensemble member across scenarios and evaluate the emulator performance using simulations with historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) forcing. We show that the framework captures grid-point-specific precipitation characteristics, such as variability, trend, and temporal auto-correlations. In addition, we find that emulated spatial (cross-variable) characteristics are consistent with those of ESMs. The framework is also able to capture compound hot–dry and cold–wet extremes, although it systematically underestimates their occurrence probabilities. The emulation of spatially explicit coherent monthly temperature and precipitation time series is a major step towards a computationally efficient representation of impact-relevant variables of the climate system.

Efficient methods for predicting weather-related hazards are crucial for the effective management of environmental risk. Many environmental hazards depend on the evolution of meteorological conditions over protracted periods, requiring assessments that account for evolving conditions. The TAMSAT-ALERT approach addresses this challenge by combining observational monitoring with a weighted multi-year ensemble. In this way, it enhances the utility of existing systems by enabling users to combine multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into holistic hazard assessments. TAMSAT-ALERT forecasts are now used in a number of regions in the Global South for soil moisture forecasting, drought early warning and agricultural decision support. The model presented here, General TAMSAT-ALERT, represents a significant scientific and functional advance on previous implementations. Notably, General TAMSAT-ALERT is applicable to any variable for which time series data are available. In addition, functionality has been introduced to account for climatological non-stationarity (for example due to climate change), large-scale modes of variability (for example El Niño) and persistence (for example of land-surface conditions). In this paper, we present a full description of the model, along with case studies of its application to the prediction of central England temperature, Pakistan vegetation conditions and African precipitation.

Ammonia (NH3) emissions mainly originate from agricultural practices and can have multiple adverse impacts on the environment. With the substantial increase in synthetic fertilizer use over the past decades, volatilization of NH3 has become a major loss of N applied to land. Since NH3 can be strongly influenced by both environmental conditions and local management practices, a better estimate of NH3 emissions from fertilizer use requires improved understanding of the relevant processes. This study describes a new process-based model, AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM), for quantifying agricultural NH3 emissions. More specifically, the present paper focuses on the development of a module (AMCLIM–Land) that is used for simulating NH3 emissions from synthetic fertilizer use. Other modules, together termed as AMCLIM-Livestock, simulate NH3 emissions from agricultural livestock and are described in Part 2). AMCLIM–Land dynamically models the evolution of N species in soils by incorporating the effects of both environmental factors and management practices to determine the NH3 emissions released from the land to the atmosphere. Based on simulations for 2010, NH3 emissions resulting from the synthetic fertilizer use are estimated at 15.0 Tg N yr−1, accounting for around 17 % of applied fertilizer N. Strong spatial and seasonal variations are found. Higher emissions typically occur in agriculturally intensive countries (such as China, India, Pakistan and the US) and mostly reach the maximum in the summer season. Volatilization rates indicate that hotter environments can result in more N lost due to NH3 emissions and show how other factors including soil moisture and pH can greatly affect volatilization of NH3. The AMCLIM model also allows for estimation of how application techniques and fertilizer type have impacts on the NH3 emissions, pointing to the importance of improving management practices to tackle nutrient loss and of appropriate data gathering to record management practices internationally.

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

Numerical models used in weather and climate prediction take into account a comprehensive set of atmospheric processes (i.e., phenomena) such as the resolved and unresolved fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, cloud and aerosol life cycles, and mass or energy exchanges with the Earth's surface. In order to identify model deficiencies and improve predictive skills, it is important to obtain process-level understanding of the interactions between different processes. Conditional sampling and budget analysis are powerful tools for process-oriented model evaluation, but they often require tedious ad hoc coding and large amounts of instantaneous model output, resulting in inefficient use of human and computing resources. This paper presents an online diagnostic tool that addresses this challenge by monitoring model variables in a generic manner as they evolve within the time integration cycle. The tool is convenient to use. It allows users to select sampling conditions and specify monitored variables at run time. Both the evolving values of the model variables and their increments caused by different atmospheric processes can be monitored and archived. Online calculation of vertical integrals is also supported. Multiple sampling conditions can be monitored in a single simulation in combination with unconditional sampling. The paper explains in detail the design and implementation of the tool in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1. The usage is demonstrated through three examples: a global budget analysis of dust aerosol mass concentration, a composite analysis of sea salt emission and its dependency on surface wind speed, and a conditionally sampled relative humidity budget. The tool is expected to be easily portable to closely related atmospheric models that use the same or similar data structures and time integration methods.

This paper describes GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch, an open-source model that represents key interactions across economic, energy, water, and land systems in a consistent global framework with subnational detail in the United States. GCAM-USA divides the world into 31 geopolitical regions outside the United States (US) and represents the US economy and energy systems in 51 state-level regions (50 states plus the District of Columbia). The model also includes 235 water basins and 384 land use regions, and 23 of each fall at least partially within the United States. GCAM-USA offers a level of process and temporal resolution rare for models of its class and scope, including detailed subnational representation of US water demands and supplies and sub-annual operations (day and night for each month) in the US electric power sector. GCAM-USA can be used to explore how changes in socioeconomic drivers, technological progress, or policy impact demands for (and production of) energy, water, and crops at a subnational level in the United States while maintaining consistency with broader national and international conditions. This paper describes GCAM-USA's structure, inputs, and outputs, with emphasis on new model features. Four illustrative scenarios encompassing varying socioeconomic and energy system futures are used to explore subnational changes in energy, water, and land use outcomes. We conclude with information about how public users can access the model.

The Vegetation Optimality Model (VOM, Schymanski et al., 2009, 2015) is an optimality-based, coupled water–vegetation model that predicts vegetation properties and behaviour based on optimality theory rather than calibrating vegetation properties or prescribing them based on observations, as most conventional models do. Several updates to previous applications of the VOM have been made for the study in the accompanying paper of Nijzink et al. (2022), where we assess whether optimality theory can alleviate common shortcomings of conventional models, as identified in a previous model inter-comparison study along the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT, Whitley et al., 2016). Therefore, we assess in this technical paper how the updates to the model and input data would have affected the original results of Schymanski et al. (2015), and we implemented these changes one at a time. The model updates included extended input data, the use of variable atmospheric CO2 levels, modified soil properties, implementation of free drainage conditions, and the addition of grass rooting depths to the optimized vegetation properties. A systematic assessment of these changes was carried out by adding each individual modification to the original version of the VOM at the flux tower site of Howard Springs, Australia. The analysis revealed that the implemented changes affected the simulation of mean annual evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) by no more than 20 %, with the largest effects caused by the newly imposed free drainage conditions and modified soil texture. Free drainage conditions led to an underestimation of ET and GPP in comparison with the results of Schymanski et al. (2015), whereas more fine-grained soil textures increased the water storage in the soil and resulted in increased GPP. Although part of the effect of free drainage was compensated for by the updated soil texture, when combining all changes, the resulting effect on the simulated fluxes was still dominated by the effect of implementing free drainage conditions. Eventually, the relative error for the mean annual ET, in comparison with flux tower observations, changed from an 8.4 % overestimation to an 10.2 % underestimation, whereas the relative errors for the mean annual GPP remained similar, with an overestimation that slightly reduced from 17.8 % to 14.7 %. The sensitivity to free drainage conditions suggests that a realistic representation of groundwater dynamics is very important for predicting ET and GPP at a tropical open-forest savanna site as investigated here. The modest changes in model outputs highlighted the robustness of the optimization approach that is central to the VOM architecture.

The South China Sea Operational Oceanography Forecasting System (SCSOFS), constructed and operated by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China, has been providing daily updated hydrodynamic forecasting in the South China Sea (SCS) for the next 5 d since 2013. This paper presents recent comprehensive updates to the configurations of the physical model and data assimilation scheme in order to improve the forecasting skill of the SCSOFS. This paper highlights three of the most sensitive updates: the sea surface atmospheric forcing method, the discrete tracer advection scheme, and a modification of the data assimilation scheme. Intercomparison and accuracy assessment among the five sub-versions were performed during the entire upgrading process using the OceanPredict Intercomparison and Validation Task Team Class 4 metrics. The results indicate that remarkable improvements have been made to the SCSOFSv2 with respect to the original version (known as SCSOFSv1). The domain-averaged monthly mean root-mean-square errors of the sea surface temperature and sea level anomaly have decreased from 1.21 to 0.52 ∘C and from 21.6 to 8.5 cm, respectively.

As numerical model developers, we have experienced first hand how most users struggle with the configuration of the models, leading to numerous support requests. Such issues are usually mitigated by offering a graphical user interface (GUI) that flattens the learning curve. Developing a GUI, however, requires a significant investment for the model developers, as well as a specific skill set. Moreover, this does not fit with the daily duties of model developers. As a consequence, when a GUI has been created – usually within a specific project and often relying on an intern – the maintenance either constitutes a major burden or is not performed. This also tends to limit the evolution of the numerical models themselves, since the model developers try to avoid having to change the GUI. In this paper we describe an approach based on an XML description of the required numerical model configuration elements (i.e., the data model of the configuration data) and a C++/Qt tool (Inishell) that populates a GUI based on this description on the fly. This makes the maintenance of the GUI very simple and enables users to easily get an up-to-date GUI for configuring the numerical model. The first version of this tool was written almost 10 years ago and showed that the concept works very well for our own surface process models. A full rewrite offering a more modern interface and extended capabilities is presented in this paper.

This paper presents WHETGEO and its 1D deployment: a new physically based model simulating the water and energy budgets in a soil column. The purpose of this contribution is twofold. First, we discuss the mathematical and numerical issues involved in solving the Richardson–Richards equation, conventionally known as the Richards equation, and the heat equation in heterogeneous soils. In particular, for the Richardson–Richards equation (R2) we take advantage of the nested Newton–Casulli–Zanolli (NCZ) algorithm that ensures the convergence of the numerical solution in any condition. Second, starting from numerical and modelling needs, we present the design of software that is intended to be the first building block of a new customizable land-surface model that is integrated with process-based hydrology. WHETGEO is developed as an open-source code, adopting the object-oriented paradigm and a generic programming approach in order to improve its usability and expandability. WHETGEO is fully integrated into the GEOframe/OMS3 system, allowing the use of the many ancillary tools it provides. Finally, the paper presents the 1D deployment of WHETGEO, WHETGEO-1D, which has been tested against the available analytical solutions presented in the Appendix.

Catchment-scale hydrological models are widely used to represent and improve our understanding of hydrological processes and to support operational water resource management. Conceptual models, which approximate catchment dynamics using relatively simple storage and routing elements, offer an attractive compromise in terms of predictive accuracy, computational demands, and amenability to interpretation. This paper introduces SuperflexPy, an open-source Python framework implementing the SUPERFLEX principles (Fenicia et al., 2011) for building conceptual hydrological models from generic components, with a high degree of control over all aspects of model specification. SuperflexPy can be used to build models of a wide range of spatial complexity, ranging from simple lumped models (e.g., a reservoir) to spatially distributed configurations (e.g., nested sub-catchments), with the ability to customize all individual model components. SuperflexPy is a Python package, enabling modelers to exploit the full potential of the framework without the need for separate software installations and making it easier to use and interface with existing Python code for model deployment. This paper presents the general architecture of SuperflexPy, discusses the software design and implementation choices, and illustrates its usage to build conceptual models of varying degrees of complexity. The illustration includes the usage of existing SuperflexPy model elements, as well as their extension to implement new functionality. Comprehensive documentation is available online and provided as a Supplement to this paper. SuperflexPy is available as open-source code and can be used by the hydrological community to investigate improved process representations for model comparison and for operational work.

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average −0.09 W m−2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m−2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∘C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∘C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∘C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∘C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∘C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.05 ∘C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∘C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∘C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∘C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 ∘C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∘C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∘C.

This paper features the new atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOlar Climate Ozone Links (SOCOL) v4.0, and its validation. The new model was built by interactively coupling the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) (T63, L47) with the chemistry (99 species) and size-resolving (40 bins) sulfate aerosol microphysics modules from the aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AERv2. We evaluate its performance against reanalysis products and observations of atmospheric circulation, temperature, and trace gas distribution, with a focus on stratospheric processes. We show that SOCOLv4.0 captures the low- and midlatitude stratospheric ozone well in terms of the climatological state, variability and evolution. The model provides an accurate representation of climate change, showing a global surface warming trend consistent with observations as well as realistic cooling in the stratosphere caused by greenhouse gas emissions, although, as in previous model versions, a too-fast residual circulation and exaggerated mixing in the surf zone are still present. The stratospheric sulfur budget for moderate volcanic activity is well represented by the model, albeit with slightly underestimated aerosol lifetime after major eruptions. The presence of the interactive ocean and a successful representation of recent climate and ozone layer trends make SOCOLv4.0 ideal for studies devoted to future ozone evolution and effects of greenhouse gases and ozone-destroying substances, as well as the evaluation of potential solar geoengineering measures through sulfur injections. Potential further model improvements could be to increase the vertical resolution, which is expected to allow better meridional transport in the stratosphere, as well as to update the photolysis calculation module and budget of mesospheric odd nitrogen. In summary, this paper demonstrates that SOCOLv4.0 is well suited for applications related to the stratospheric ozone and sulfate aerosol evolution, including its participation in ongoing and future model intercomparison projects.

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90∘ N) and younger tropical (23∘ S–23∘ N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50∘ N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C m−2 yr−1 but as high as 0.60 kg C m−2 yr−1 where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

Process-based ecosystem models are increasingly important for predicting forest dynamics under future environmental conditions, which may encompass non-analogous climate coupled with unprecedented disturbance regimes. However, challenges persist due to the extensive number of model parameters, scarce calibration data, and trade-offs between the local precision and the applicability of the model over a wide range of environmental conditions. In this paper, we describe a protocol that allows a modeller to collect transferable ecosystem properties based on ecosystem characteristic criteria and to compile the parameters that need to be described in the field. We applied the procedure to develop a new parameterisation for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) for the Biome-BGCMuSo model, the most advanced member of the Biome-BGC family. For model calibration and testing, we utilised multiyear forest carbon data from 87 plots distributed across five European countries. The initial values of 48 new ecophysiological parameters were defined based on a literature review. The final values of six calibrated parameters were optimised for single sites as well as for multiple sites using generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and model output conditioning that ensured plausible simulations based on user-defined ranges of carbon stock output variables (carbon stock in aboveground wood biomass, soil, and litter) and finding the intersections of site-specific plausible parameter hyperspaces. To support the model use, we tested the model performance by simulating aboveground tree wood, soil, and litter carbon across a large geographical gradient of central Europe and evaluated the trade-offs between parameters tailored to single plots and parameters estimated using multiple sites. Our findings indicated that parameter sets derived from single sites provided an improved local accuracy of simulations of aboveground wood, soil, and litter carbon stocks by 35 %, 55 %, and 11 % in comparison to the a priori parameter set. However, their broader applicability was very limited. A multi-site optimised parameter set, on the other hand, performed satisfactorily across the entire geographical domain studied here, including on sites not involved in the parameter estimation, but the errors were, on average, 26 %, 35 % and 9 % greater for the aboveground wood, soil, and litter carbon stocks than those obtained with the site-specific parameter sets. Importantly, model simulations demonstrated plausible responses across large-scale environmental gradients, featuring a clear production optimum of beech that aligns with empirical studies. These findings suggest that the model is capable of accurately simulating the dynamics of European beech across its range and can be used for more comprehensive experimentations.

Numerical methods and simulation codes are essential for the advancement of our understanding of complex atmospheric processes. As technology and computer hardware continue to evolve, the development of sophisticated code is vital for accurate and efficient simulations. In this paper, we present the recent advancements made in the FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART), a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, which has been used in a wide range of atmospheric transport studies over the past 3 decades, extending from tracing radionuclides from the Fukushima nuclear disaster, to inverse modelling of greenhouse gases, and to the study of atmospheric moisture cycles. This version of FLEXPART includes notable improvements in accuracy and computational efficiency. (1) By leveraging the native vertical coordinates of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) instead of interpolating to terrain-following coordinates, we achieved an improvement in trajectory accuracy, leading to a ∼8 %–10 % reduction in conservation errors for quasi-conservative quantities like potential vorticity. (2) The shape of aerosol particles is now accounted for in the gravitational settling and dry-deposition calculation, increasing the simulation accuracy for non-spherical aerosol particles such as microplastic fibres. (3) Wet deposition has been improved by the introduction of a new below-cloud scheme, by a new cloud identification scheme, and by improving the interpolation of precipitation. (4) Functionality from a separate version of FLEXPART, the FLEXPART CTM (chemical transport model), is implemented, which includes linear chemical reactions. Additionally, the incorporation of Open Multi-Processing parallelisation makes the model better suited for handling large input data. Furthermore, we introduced novel methods for the input and output of particle properties and distributions. Users now have the option to run FLEXPART with more flexible particle input data, providing greater adaptability for specific research scenarios (e.g. effective backward simulations corresponding to satellite retrievals). Finally, a new user manual (https://flexpart.img.univie.ac.at/docs/, last access: 11 September 2024) and restructuring of the source code into modules will serve as a basis for further development.

This paper introduces the AtsMOS (At-scale Model Output Statistics) workflow, designed to enhance mountain meteorology predictions through the downscaling of coarse numerical weather predictions using local observational data. AtsMOS provides a modular, open-source toolkit for local and large-scale forecasting of various meteorological variables through modified model output statistics – and may be applied to data from a single station or an entire network. We demonstrate its effectiveness through an example application at the summit of Mt. Everest, where it improves the prediction of both meteorological variables (e.g. wind speed, temperature) and derivative variables (e.g. facial frostbite time) critical for mountaineering safety. As a bridge between numerical weather prediction models and ground observations, AtsMOS contributes to hazard mitigation, water resource management, and other weather-dependent issues in mountainous regions and beyond.

The microwave radiances are key observations, especially over data-sparse regions, for operational data assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP). An often applied simplification is that these observations are used as point measurements; however, the satellite field of view may cover many grid points of high-resolution models. Therefore, we examine a solution in high-resolution data assimilation to better account for the spatial representation of the radiance observations. This solution is based on a footprint operator implemented and tested in the variational assimilation scheme of the AROME-Arctic (Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale – Arctic) limited-area model. In this paper, the design and technical challenges of the microwave radiance footprint operator are presented. In particular, implementation strategies, the representation of satellite field-of-view ellipses, and the emissivity retrieval inside the footprint area are discussed. Furthermore, the simulated brightness temperatures and the sub-footprint variability are analysed in a case study, indicating particular areas where the use of the footprint operator is expected to provide significant added value. For radiances measured by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) sensors, the standard deviation of the observation minus background (OmB) departures is computed over a short period in order to compare the statistics of the default and the implemented footprint observation operator. For all operationally used AMSU-A and MHS tropospheric channels, it is shown that the standard deviation of OmB departures is reduced when the footprint operator is applied. For AMSU-A radiances, the reduction is around 1 % for high-peaking channels and about 4 % for low-peaking channels. For MHS data, this reduction is somewhere between 1 %–2 % by the footprint observation operator.

We present an overview of the UK's Global Sea Ice model configuration version 9 (GSI9), the sea ice component of the latest Met Office Global Coupled model, GC5. The GC5 configuration will, amongst other uses, form the physical basis for the HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3) climate model and UKESM2 (UK Earth System Model version 2) Earth system model that will provide the Met Office Hadley Centre/UK model contributions to CMIP7 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7). Although UK ocean model configurations have been developed for many years around the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean modelling framework, the GSI9 configuration is the first UK sea ice model configuration to use the new native NEMO sea ice model, SI3 (Sea Ice modelling Integrated Initiative). This replaces the CICE (Community Ice CodE) model used in previous configuration versions. In this paper we document the physical and technical options used within the GSI9 sea ice configuration. We provide details of the implementation of SI3 into the Met Office coupled model and the adaptations required to work with our “conductivity coupling” approach and provide a thorough description of the GC5 coupling methodology. A brief evaluation of sea ice simulated by the GC5 model is included, with results compared to observational references and a previous Global Coupled model version (GC3.1) used for CMIP6, to demonstrate the scientific credibility of the results.

The role of mixing between layers of different densities is key to how the ocean works and interacts with other components of the Earth's system. Correctly accounting for its effect in numerical simulations is therefore of utmost importance. However, numerical models are still plagued with spurious sources of mixing, originating mostly from the vertical advection schemes in the case of fixed-coordinate models. As the number of phenomena explicitly resolved by models increases, so does the amplitude of resolved vertical motions and the amount of spurious numerical mixing, and regional models are no exception to this. This paper provides a clear illustration of this phenomenon in the context of simulating the south-east Asian (SEA) seas along with a simple way to reduce its impact. This region is known for its particularly strong internal tides and the fundamental role they play in the dynamic of the region. Using the Symphonie ocean model, simulations including and excluding tides and using a pseudo-third-order upwind advection scheme on the vertical are compared to several reference datasets, and the impact on water masses is assessed. The high diffusivity of this advection scheme is demonstrated along with the importance of accounting for tidal mixing for a correct representation of water masses. Simultaneously, we present an improvement in this advection scheme to make it more suitable for use in the vertical. Simulations with the new formulation are added for comparison. We conclude that the use of a higher-order numerical diffusion operator greatly improves the overall performance of the model.

The Tracking Algorithm for Mesoscale Convective Systems (TAMS) is a tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning algorithm for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). TAMS was initially developed to analyze MCSs over Africa and their relation to African easterly waves using satellite-derived datasets. This paper describes TAMS, an open-source MCS tracking and classifying Python-based package that can be used to study both observed and simulated MCSs. Each step of the algorithm is described with examples showing how to make use of visualization and post-processing tools within the package. A unique and valuable feature of this MCS tracker is its support for unstructured grids in the MCS identification stage and grid-independent tracking of MCSs, enabling application across various native modeling grids and satellite-derived products. A description of the available settings and helper functions is also provided. Finally, we share some of the current development goals for TAMS.

VERT (Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic) is an R package developed to estimate traffic emissions of a wide range of pollutants and greenhouse gases based on traffic estimates and vehicle fleet composition data, following the EMEP/EEA methodology. Compared to other tools available in the literature, VERT is characterised by its ease of use and rapid configuration, while it maintains great flexibility in user input. It is capable of estimating exhaust, non-exhaust, resuspension, and evaporative emissions and is designed to accommodate future updates of available emission factors. In this paper, case studies conducted at both urban and regional scales demonstrate VERT's ability to accurately assess transport emissions. In an urban setting, VERT is integrated with the Lagrangian dispersion model GRAMM–GRAL and provides NOx concentrations in line with observed trends at monitoring stations, especially near traffic hotspots. On a regional scale, VERT simulations provide emission estimates that are highly consistent with the reference inventories for the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). These findings make VERT a valuable tool for air quality management and traffic emission scenario assessment.