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The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea‐level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high‐end warming scenario (SSP5‐8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt‐albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea‐level rise. Plain Language Summary: We explore how three different polar climate models predict the future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), a major contributor to global sea‐level rise. Our results show that SMB projections among these models differ significantly by the end of the century. Differences primarily stem from how models convert meltwater into surface runoff toward the ocean, a crucial SMB component that directly contributes to sea‐level rise. Another key factor is the response of these models to climate warming, substantially affecting future melting rates. Our research highlights the need for further improvements of these climate models. By identifying and understanding the drivers behind model differences, we can improve SMB predictions and better estimate future global sea‐level rise. Key Points: With identical forcing, Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 3 regional climate models shows a two‐fold difference by 2100Different runoff projections stem from substantial discrepancies in projected ablation zone expansion, and reciprocallyThe response of meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming differs significantly among regional climate models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At least three primary iceberg calving styles have been identified in Greenland: serac collapse, which produces falling icebergs tens of meters in length; slab capsize, which produces rotating icebergs hundreds of meters in length; and tabular rifting, which produces kilometer‐scale icebergs. However, calving styles are mostly undocumented across Greenland. Here, we develop a method to disentangle the sizes of individual calving events and map the dominant calving style at glaciers, using the characteristic properties of step retreats in satellite‐derived terminus positions. At glaciers known to frequently produce calving teleseisms, step retreats greater than 200 m account for >80% ${ >} 80\%$ of net calved length since 2018. In contrast, at glaciers known to calve by serac failure, 200 m step retreats account <20% ${< } 20\%$ of net calving. Thus, terminus change timeseries can offer promising insight into the dominant calving styles at marine‐terminating glaciers. Plain Language Summary: Iceberg calving is ubiquitous at the ocean‐bounded edges of ice sheets. However, not all iceberg calving is the same: at least three distinct mechanisms govern the discharge of solid ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We show these are associated with a characteristic range of iceberg sizes. Because calving constitutes a major component of Greenland's continued mass loss, it is important that these distinct mechanisms be understood. We develop a method to identify which calving mechanisms are important at various glaciers. We do so by using satellite observations to estimate the lengths of terminus retreats producing icebergs at individual glaciers. Key Points: Greenland outlet glaciers with different calving styles have different characteristic retreat magnitudes in consecutive satellite imagesAt glaciers which frequently produce calving teleseisms, step retreats in terminus position are dominated by retreats >200 mThe distinct processes underlying different calving styles will likely necessitate several distinct calving laws [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract At least three primary iceberg calving styles have been identified in Greenland: serac collapse, which produces falling icebergs tens of meters in length; slab capsize, which produces rotating icebergs hundreds of meters in length; and tabular rifting, which produces kilometer‐scale icebergs. However, calving styles are mostly undocumented across Greenland. Here, we develop a method to disentangle the sizes of individual calving events and map the dominant calving style at glaciers, using the characteristic properties of step retreats in satellite‐derived terminus positions. At glaciers known to frequently produce calving teleseisms, step retreats greater than 200 m account for >80% of net calved length since 2018. In contrast, at glaciers known to calve by serac failure, 200 m step retreats account

The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) has experienced substantial dynamic thinning in recent years. Here, we examine the evolving behavior of NEGIS, with focus on summer speedup at Zachariae Isstrøm, one of the NEGIS outlet glaciers, which has exhibited rapid retreat and acceleration, indicative of its vulnerability to changing climate conditions. Through a combination of Sentinel‐1 data, in‐situ GPS observations, and numerical ice flow modeling from 2007, we investigate the mechanisms driving short‐term changes. Our analysis reveals a summer speedup in ice flow both near the terminus and inland, with satellite data detecting changes up to 60 km inland, while GPS data capture changes up to 190 km inland along the glacier center line. We attribute this summer speedup to variations in subglacial hydrology, where surface meltwater runoff influences basal friction over the melt season. Incorporating subglacial hydrology into numerical models makes it possible to replicate observed ice velocity patterns. Plain Language Summary: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), a crucial part of the Greenland Ice Sheet, has been experiencing significant dynamic thinning recently. This study focuses on the summer speedup of Zachariae Isstrøm (ZI), one of NEGIS's outlet glaciers, which is rapidly retreating and accelerating, highlighting its sensitivity to climate change. Utilizing Sentinel‐1 satellite data, in‐situ GPS observations, and numerical ice flow modeling, we explore the mechanisms behind short‐term dynamic changes. We find that satellite data reveals short‐term summer (June to August) fluctuations in ice flow speed near the glacier terminus and up to 50–70 km inland. However, GPS data shows that this speedup extends further inland, up to at least 190 km along the main flow line. Only GPS data can detect the smaller‐scale summer speedups in these inland regions, providing critical observations for validating ice flow models. We determine that the seasonal acceleration of ice velocity at Zachariae Isstrøm is due to variations in subglacial hydrology, where surface meltwater runoff reduces basal friction by altering the subglacial hydrologic system during the melt season. Additionally, our study highlights that these findings are applicable beyond NEGIS, with similar speedup patterns observed in other Greenland glaciers. Key Points: GPS data reveal summer speed up at least 190 km inland along the main flowline of Zachariae IsstrømSubglacial hydrology is the main driver of the summer speedup near the terminus and deep inlandRecord high warming in 2019 led to a more intense and longer duration of the summer speedup [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present understanding of Greenland's subglacial geology is derived mostly from interpolation of geologic mapping of its ice‐free margins and unconstrained by geophysical data. Here we refine the extent of its geologic provinces by synthesizing geophysical constraints on subglacial geology from seismic, gravity, magnetic and topographic data. North of 72°N, no province clearly extends across the whole island, leaving three distinct subglacial regions yet to be reconciled with margin geology. Geophysically coherent anomalies and apparent province boundaries are adjacent to the onset of faster ice flow at both Petermann Glacier and the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Separately, based on their subaerial expression, dozens of unusually long, straight and sub‐parallel subglacial valleys cross Greenland's interior and are not yet resolved by current syntheses of its subglacial topography. Plain Language Summary: The Greenland Ice Sheet obscures the rocks beneath 79% of Greenland. By necessity, scientists have relied mostly on studying the rocks exposed along Greenland's edge to understand the island's interior geology. We examine geophysical data from seismometers on the ground, satellites that measure Earth's gravity and magnetic fields and surface topography, and aircraft that measure those same properties and ice thickness. We draw a new map of Greenland's geology beneath the ice sheet by examining where those data show similar signals regarding the nature of the underlying rock, and where they could be related to mapped rock exposures. We also find evidence of some areas with geophysical expressions that are distinct from the rocks found at the island's edges. Some geologic structures, which are entirely covered by ice, may affect how ice flows from Greenland's vast interior toward its coast. Finally, we identify many valleys beneath the ice that are very long and often aligned with each other, but which are not yet fully captured in present maps of the topography beneath the ice. Key Points: We produced a new synthesis of subglacial boundaries for Greenland's geologic provinces from seismic, gravity, magnetic and topography dataThree subglacial regions in central and northern Greenland cannot yet be reconciled with surface‐exposed geologic provincesWe find evidence for a large subglacial valley network that is not fully resolved by subglacial topography syntheses for Greenland [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme melt and rainfall events can induce temporary acceleration of Greenland Ice Sheet motion, leading to increased advection of ice to lower elevations where melt rates are higher. In a warmer climate, these events are likely to become more frequent. In September 2022, seasonally unprecedented air temperatures caused multiple melt events over the Greenland Ice Sheet, generating the highest melt rates of the year. The scale and timing of the largest event overwhelmed the subglacial drainage system, enhancing basal sliding and increasing ice velocities by up to ∼240% relative to pre‐event velocities. However, ice motion returned rapidly to pre‐event levels, and the speed‐ups caused a regional increase in annual ice discharge of only ∼2% compared to when the effects of the speed‐ups were excluded. Therefore, although late melt‐season events are forecast to become more frequent and drive significant runoff, their impact on net mass loss via ice discharge is minimal. Plain Language Summary: Extreme melt and rainfall events can cause the flow of ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet to accelerate, potentially causing more ice to move to lower elevations, where temperatures are warmer and melt rates are higher. In September 2022, there were multiple unprecedented melt events. Their intensity caused some glaciers on the ice sheet to speed up by 240% relative to pre‐event speeds. Despite these accelerations, our analyses show that these events had only a minimal long‐term impact on how much ice was moved to lower elevations due to the short duration of the speed‐ups. As a result, while these melt‐induced speed‐ups are expected to become more common in a warmer climate, their effect on the amount of ice transported toward the ice margins is minimal. Key Points: September 2022 saw multiple melt events over the west Greenland Ice Sheet, with the largest daily runoff of any late melt‐season since 1950Large quantities of surface‐generated meltwater overwhelmed the subglacial drainage system causing brief increases in ice velocityLate‐season runoff‐induced speed‐ups have only minimal impact on the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet via dynamical processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Summertime Greenland blocking (GB) can drive melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which has global implications. A strongly increasing trend in GB in the early twenty‐first century was observed but is missing in climate model simulations. Here, we analyze the temporal evolution of GB in nearly 500 members from the CMIP6 archive. The recent period of increased GB is not present in the members considered. The maximum 10‐year trend in GB in the reanalysis, associated with the recent increase, lies almost outside the distributions of trends for any 10‐year period in the climate models. GB is shown to be partly driven by the sea surface temperatures and/or sea ice concentrations, as well as by anthropogenic aerosols. Further work is required to understand why climate models cannot represent a period of increased GB, and appear to underestimate its decadal variability, and what implications this may have.

Abstract Monitoring the Greenland mass balance (GMB) is crucial in the context of global sea level rise. Currently, three main methods are used to measure GMB, with the primary source of uncertainty arising from the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) contribution. Here, we propose a novel approach based on a simple methodology that uses the entire Greenland GNSS network (GNET) as an instrument to monitor the present‐day mass changes. Our method is validated against GRACE‐derived GMB, and we find a very good agreement. This leads to an independent methodology for estimating present‐day mass changes from GNSS, bridging the gap between GRACE and GRACE‐FO in GMB estimates. Through a combined analysis of GMB from GRACE and GNET, we identify a consistency relation between the gravity and uplift signature of GIA, providing a new robust constraint for GIA models.

Abstract To advance our comprehension of the complex geological history and mantle dynamics in the North Atlantic region, we employ all available broadband seismic data recorded in Greenland to reveal an abnormal mantle transition zone (MTZ) structure. Central and eastern Greenland exhibits depressed 410 and 660 km discontinuities (d410 and d660, respectively) bordering the MTZ, indicative of a substantial thermal anomaly associated with an underlying plume, surpassing the 1,800°C threshold for post‐garnet phase transitions at the d660. Variations in MTZ thickness across Greenland stem from differing temperature anomalies at the d410 and d660, possibly linked to a tilted plume within the MTZ. These findings corroborate geodynamic models, elucidating the interaction between post‐garnet phase transitions and upwelling plumes. The results shed light on the origin of the enigmatic Icelandic hotspot track and its influence on the thermal and lithospheric structures beneath Greenland.

Abstract In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal‐scale variability or fine‐scale simulations for process‐based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord‐scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse‐resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections.

Abstract Present understanding of Greenland's subglacial geology is derived mostly from interpolation of geologic mapping of its ice‐free margins and unconstrained by geophysical data. Here we refine the extent of its geologic provinces by synthesizing geophysical constraints on subglacial geology from seismic, gravity, magnetic and topographic data. North of 72°N, no province clearly extends across the whole island, leaving three distinct subglacial regions yet to be reconciled with margin geology. Geophysically coherent anomalies and apparent province boundaries are adjacent to the onset of faster ice flow at both Petermann Glacier and the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Separately, based on their subaerial expression, dozens of unusually long, straight and sub‐parallel subglacial valleys cross Greenland's interior and are not yet resolved by current syntheses of its subglacial topography.

Storstrømmen and L. Bistrup Bræ are 20- and 10-km wide, surge type glaciers in North Greenland in quiescent phase that terminate in the southernmost floating ice tongue in East Greenland. Novel multi-beam echo sounding data collected in August 2020 indicate a seabed at 350-400 m depth along a relatively uniform ice shelf front, 100 m deeper than expected, but surrounded by shallower terrain (

Recent observations revealed the existence of ice slabs and aquifers on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Both affect the ice sheet's hydrology: ice slabs facilitate runoff and aquifers modulate drainage to the bed. However, their climatic drivers and history remain unclear, as most observations cover only two decades. Here, we present a model simulation of the evolution of GrIS ice slabs and aquifers (1980–2020), evaluated using radar measurements. The results show that accumulation, melt and rain rates are good predictors for the spatial distribution of ice slabs and aquifers. Both features were already present in the late 1980s, and their extent remained relatively constant until the beginning of this century, after which increased melt led to their expansion. We show that almost any transect from the coast to the ice‐sheet interior will cross either an ice slab region, or an aquifer, or both. Plain Language Summary: The Greenland ice sheet is covered by a layer of old, porous snow called firn, which has the capacity to prevent surface melt runoff. The firn can however, form thick ice slabs or store large amounts of water underground. These change the fate of surface melt by respectively enhancing runoff and draining water to the ice sheet's bed. While observations have shown where these phenomena occur, it is still unknown what the exact atmospheric conditions are that lead to their formation. Here, we tackle this problem using computer simulations. Our results show that the amount of snowfall, melt and rain determine whether ice slabs or aquifers can form. The results also suggest that ice slabs and aquifers are more abundant than previously assumed, and that their observed expansion started only in the early 2000s, and they will continue to expand if the climate gets warmer and melt and rain become more abundant. Key Points: Accumulation, melt and rain are good predictors of ice slab and firn aquifer locationsThe expansion of modeled ice slabs and aquifers on the Greenland ice sheet started in the early 2000sWe show that, in between the ablation zone and the accumulation zone, there are always ice slabs and/or aquifers present [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dark (low albedo) surface ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet enhances melting and subsequent runoff, a major mass loss contributor during the ablation season. The accumulation of both biological (e.g., glacier ice algae) and abiotic (e.g., mineral dust) light‐absorbing particulates are important darkening factors, that are potentially influenced by the duration of snow‐free, bare ice (a phenological factor), and other geo‐topographical factors such as elevation, slope, aspect and the distance from the ice margin. Here, we present the first medium‐resolution (30 m) analysis of the phenological and geo‐topographical controls on the distribution of dark ice in SE and SW Greenland from statistical analysis of data derived from a harmonized satellite albedo product and ArcticDEM. The duration of bare ice primarily controls the distribution of dark surface ice, allowing for algae growth on inland ice surfaces in particular, whereas geo‐topographical factors are only secondary controls. Plain Language Summary: Meltwater that runs off the Greenland Ice Sheet is currently the largest single glaciological contributor to global sea level rise. Recent darkening of the surface ice has contributed significantly to increased melt rates. We used medium resolution (30m) satellite data to link ice surface darkness (albedo) to the topography (elevation, slope, and aspect) of the ice sheet surface, the distance from the ice margin, and the duration of bare or snow‐free surface ice. Our analysis shows that the duration of bare ice or snow‐free conditions was the most significant factor in driving the darkening of ice. We also found that the impact of topographic factors on the ice darkening varied depending on whether abiotic or biological processes were driving the darkening. This information helps us to better explain where the ice sheet is melting fastest and to predict the loss of ice mass, particularly considering the expected increase in the area of bare, snow‐free ice in our warming climate. Key Points: The duration of snow‐free, bare ice is the primary control on the distribution of dark iceLonger durations of bare ice (median = 40 days) are prerequisites for ice to become darkSurface slope and aspect influence darkening by modulating the duration of bare ice and glacier ice algae growth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Extreme melt and rainfall events can induce temporary acceleration of Greenland Ice Sheet motion, leading to increased advection of ice to lower elevations where melt rates are higher. In a warmer climate, these events are likely to become more frequent. In September 2022, seasonally unprecedented air temperatures caused multiple melt events over the Greenland Ice Sheet, generating the highest melt rates of the year. The scale and timing of the largest event overwhelmed the subglacial drainage system, enhancing basal sliding and increasing ice velocities by up to ∼240% relative to pre‐event velocities. However, ice motion returned rapidly to pre‐event levels, and the speed‐ups caused a regional increase in annual ice discharge of only ∼2% compared to when the effects of the speed‐ups were excluded. Therefore, although late melt‐season events are forecast to become more frequent and drive significant runoff, their impact on net mass loss via ice discharge is minimal.

Abstract Dark (low albedo) surface ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet enhances melting and subsequent runoff, a major mass loss contributor during the ablation season. The accumulation of both biological (e.g., glacier ice algae) and abiotic (e.g., mineral dust) light‐absorbing particulates are important darkening factors, that are potentially influenced by the duration of snow‐free, bare ice (a phenological factor), and other geo‐topographical factors such as elevation, slope, aspect and the distance from the ice margin. Here, we present the first medium‐resolution (30 m) analysis of the phenological and geo‐topographical controls on the distribution of dark ice in SE and SW Greenland from statistical analysis of data derived from a harmonized satellite albedo product and ArcticDEM. The duration of bare ice primarily controls the distribution of dark surface ice, allowing for algae growth on inland ice surfaces in particular, whereas geo‐topographical factors are only secondary controls.

Freshwater input from Greenland ice sheet melt has been increasing in the past decades from warming temperatures. To identify the impacts from enhanced meltwater input into the subpolar North Atlantic from 1997 to 2021, we use output from two nearly identical simulations in the eddy‐rich model VIKING20X (1/20°) only differing in the freshwater input from Greenland: one with realistic interannually varying runoff increasing in the early 2000s and the other with climatologically (1961–2000) continued runoff. The majority of the additional freshwater remains within the boundary current enhancing the density gradient toward the warm and salty interior waters yielding increased current velocities. The accelerated boundary current shows a tendency to enhanced, upstream shifted eddy shedding into the Labrador Sea interior. Further, the experiments allow to attribute higher stratification and shallower mixed layers southwest of Greenland and deeper mixed layers in the Irminger Sea, particularly in 2015–2018, to the runoff increase in the early 2000s. Plain Language Summary: Global warming has accelerated the melting of the Greenland ice sheet over the past few decades resulting in enhanced freshwater input into the North Atlantic. The additional freshwater can potentially inhibit deep water formation and have future implications on ocean circulation. To determine the influence from Greenland melt, we compare two high‐resolution model experiments all with the same forcing but differing input of Greenland freshwater fluxes from 1997 to 2021. We find that in the experiment with realistically increasing Greenland meltwater, the water becomes fresher and cooler along the continental shelf and boundary of the subpolar gyre. The density difference between the shelf and interior increases with more freshwater, resulting in faster West Greenland Current speeds and enhanced eddy formation. Deeper mixed layers are found in the eastern Irminger Sea, particularly in 2015–2018. From 2009 to 2013, there were shallower mixed layers in the Labrador Sea where less Greenland meltwater was mixed downwards and spread eastward, causing mixed layers to deepen in the Irminger Sea. Key Points: The West Greenland Current (WGC) freshens and cools with the observed recent increase in meltwater runoff from GreenlandThe density gradient across the boundary current intensifies, strengthening the WGC and increasing local eddy formationEnhanced meltwater runoff contributed to an eastward shift in deep convection towards the Irminger Sea (2015–2018) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical modeling of ice sheet motion and hence projections of global sea level rise require information about the evolving subglacial environment, which unfortunately remains largely unknown due to its difficulty of access. Here we advance such subglacial observations by reporting multi‐year observations of seismic tremor likely associated with glacier sliding at Helheim Glacier. This association is confirmed by correlation analysis between tremor power and multiple environmental forcings on different timescales. Variations of the observed tremor power indicate that different factors affect glacial sliding on different timescales. Effective pressure may control glacial sliding on long (seasonal/annual) timescales, while tidal forcing modulates the sliding rate and tremor power on short (hourly/daily) timescales. Polarization results suggest that the tremor source comes from an upstream subglacial ridge. This observation provides insights on how different factors should be included in ice sheet modeling and how their timescales of variability play an essential role. Plain Language Summary: The Greenland Ice Sheet has lost ice increasingly in the past few decades, contributing significantly to global sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in computer simulations of such ice mass loss and hence sea level rise. This uncertainly is mainly attributed to the lack of information on what is happening at the bottom of the ice sheet and how that affects ice sheet movement. For example, how much water is there and whether it is in isolated pockets or is well distributed as a thin sheet can have an important effect on ice movement. In this paper, we observe small ground motions that are generated during glacier movement at a marine‐terminating glacier in Greenland. By analyzing the energy variation of the small ground motions over multiple years as well as observing the reasons that cause the variations, we learn that subglacial water pressure may control ice flow speeds on a seasonal/annual scale, and that ocean tides can change ice flow on an hourly/daily scale. This observation provides important constraints for computer simulations of future sea level rise in terms of the impacting factors and their respective timescales. Key Points: Multi‐year seismic records reveal glacial slip and tremor variability at Helheim GlacierTremor correlates with high effective pressure at tidal timescales, opposite to the expectation at longer timescalesThe tremor source points to an upstream subglacial ridge [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Recent observations revealed the existence of ice slabs and aquifers on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Both affect the ice sheet's hydrology: ice slabs facilitate runoff and aquifers modulate drainage to the bed. However, their climatic drivers and history remain unclear, as most observations cover only two decades. Here, we present a model simulation of the evolution of GrIS ice slabs and aquifers (1980–2020), evaluated using radar measurements. The results show that accumulation, melt and rain rates are good predictors for the spatial distribution of ice slabs and aquifers. Both features were already present in the late 1980s, and their extent remained relatively constant until the beginning of this century, after which increased melt led to their expansion. We show that almost any transect from the coast to the ice‐sheet interior will cross either an ice slab region, or an aquifer, or both.

Humboldt Gletscher is a 100-km wide, slow-moving glacier in north Greenland which holds a 19-cm global sea level equivalent. Humboldt has been the fourth largest contributor to sea level rise since 1972 but the cause of its mass loss has not been elucidated. Multi-beam echo sounding data collected in 2019 indicate a seabed 200 m deeper than previously known. Conductivity temperature depth data reveal the presence of warm water of Atlantic origin at 0°C at the glacier front and a warming of the ocean waters by 0.9 ± 0.1°C since 1962. Using an ocean model, we reconstruct grounded ice undercutting by the ocean, combine it with calculated retreat caused by ice thinning to floatation, and are able to fully explain the observed retreat. Two thirds of the retreat are caused by undercutting of grounded ice, which is a physical process not included in most ice sheet models.

Abstract The Greenland Sea is a key region for open ocean convection and ventilation, which exhibit a large variability with periods of strong convection and shutdowns. After a long period of weak winter convection (from the 1970s to the early 1990s), a recovery has been reported, beginning in the 1990s and intensifying in the early 2000s until 2013. Using ISAS, an optimal interpolation product based on Argo observations, we document a recent significant weakening of deep convection between 2014 and 2020, accompanied by a continuous warming of the mixed layer but also a freshening after 2014. These hydrographic changes likely increase the ocean stratification and precondition the shutdown of winter convection. We suggest that these property changes result from a shift of the large scale atmospheric circulation, affecting the source of Atlantic Water to the Nordic seas, causing a freshening of about −0.1 g kg−1 that spreads into the Greenland Sea.

Monitoring the Greenland mass balance (GMB) is crucial in the context of global sea level rise. Currently, three main methods are used to measure GMB, with the primary source of uncertainty arising from the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) contribution. Here, we propose a novel approach based on a simple methodology that uses the entire Greenland GNSS network (GNET) as an instrument to monitor the present‐day mass changes. Our method is validated against GRACE‐derived GMB, and we find a very good agreement. This leads to an independent methodology for estimating present‐day mass changes from GNSS, bridging the gap between GRACE and GRACE‐FO in GMB estimates. Through a combined analysis of GMB from GRACE and GNET, we identify a consistency relation between the gravity and uplift signature of GIA, providing a new robust constraint for GIA models. Plain Language Summary: The rate of Greenland ice mass change is constantly monitored by satellites measuring gravity and surface elevation variations, airborne surveys, and a growing network of GNSS stations on the ground. Each technique has its strengths and weaknesses and spatial/temporal resolution. We developed an approach that uses the whole GNSS network as a "virtual instrument", capable of measuring the total ice loss from Greenland. Comparing this with more standard mass balance estimate techniques, we validate the method, and, by combining these techniques, we find a novel constraint on both the mass variations and glacial isostatic adjustment models. Key Points: New methodology for monitoring daily estimates of the Greenland Mass Balance (GMB) derived from the GNSS networkNew glacial isostatic adjustment constraint from combined GRACE and GNSS observationsFilling the gap in the GMB between GRACE and GRACE‐FO using GNSS data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal‐scale variability or fine‐scale simulations for process‐based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord‐scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse‐resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections. Plain Language Summary: Over the past several decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing ice and contributing to sea‐level rise. About half of this ice loss is induced by melt that occurs where glaciers meet the ocean. Using coarse‐scale ocean models that simulate circulation around the globe, previous studies have noted a strong link between ocean temperature and enhanced glacier ice loss. However, due to the small scale of Greenland's fjords, coarse models are unable to directly quantify circulation in these fjords and melt on submerged glaciers. In this study, we develop a new framework to "zoom in" on a fjord, using high‐resolution models driven by larger coarse‐resolution models. In this approach, we simulate melt on one of Greenland's biggest glaciers and find that periods of higher melt coincide with more ice loss as observed from satellites. Since this framework is adaptable to other regions, it could also be used to simulate melt on other glaciers and support estimates of future sea‐level rise. Key Points: Subsurface temperature variability is simulated in a narrow fjord network using regional models downscaled from a global state estimateModeled increases in ocean melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier coincide with the onset of acceleration in 2005 and retreat and thinning in 2011Model variations in shelf‐to‐fjord ocean properties match with observations, providing a basis to estimate ocean forcing in ice projections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Satellite radar interferometry data reveals that the grounding line of Petermann Glacier, Greenland migrates by several kilometers during the tidal cycle, bringing pressurized, subsurface, warm ocean waters in regular contact with a large sector of grounded ice. We use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model in two dimensions to calculate the ice melt rates as a function of grounding zone (GZ) length and ocean Thermal Forcing (TF). Ice melt rates are found to be higher in the GZ cavity than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity. The melt rates increase sub‐linearly with the length of the GZ and ocean TF. The model results agree well with remote sensing estimates of ice melt. High basal ice melt rates in tidally flushed grounding zones imply that marine‐terminating glaciers are more sensitive to ocean TF than anticipated, which will increase their projected contribution to sea level rise.

We use airborne accumulation radar data acquired over the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2002 and 2018 to identify changes in ice slab extent and thickness. We show that ice slabs several meters thick were already present at least as early as 2002. Between 2012 and 2018, they expanded by 13,400–17,600 km2 ${\mathrm{k}\mathrm{m}}^{2}$ inland, or 37%–44%. Our results document that the extremely warm summer of 2012 produced near‐surface ice layers at higher elevations, enabling ice slabs to develop with only moderate melting in the following summers. With repeat flights along a transect in southwest Greenland, we show that moderate melting primarily causes slab thickening through uniform accretion on top of the ice slabs, while large melting events can also trigger localized accretion below existing ice slabs. Plain Language Summary: Above the equilibrium line elevation, seasonal snow is not entirely removed by summer melting. As a result, firn—an interannual layer made of old snow and refrozen meltwater—builds up. Firn holds the potential to buffer sea level rise by trapping liquid water within its pore space. However, surface melting has increased in recent decades, making large quantities of water available to percolate into the firn where it refreezes, eventually creating meters‐thick ice slabs that hinder future percolation. We mapped ice slabs in the subsurface firn (0–20 m depth) by using airborne radar surveys and show that they have expanded inland and thickened from 2002 to 2018. Once formed, ice slabs continue to thicken, even under moderate melt conditions. Recent increases in the area drained by surface rivers on the ice sheet match well with the ice slabs extent, so we conclude that ice slabs will be an important control on the future runoff area of the ice sheet. Key Points: Ice slabs were already present in the early 2000s in southwest, central‐west and north GreenlandIce slabs expanded inland from 2002 to 2018 and thickened by accretion to both their tops and undersidesNear‐surface ice layers support subsequent ice slab development [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One important feature of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) change is its strong seasonal fluctuation. Taking advantage of deployed seismographic stations in Greenland, we apply cross‐component auto‐correlation of seismic ambient noise to measure in‐situ near surface relative velocity change (dv/v) in different regions of Greenland. Our results demonstrate that dv/v measurements for most stations have less than 3 months lag times in comparison to the surface mass change. These various lag times may provide us constraints for the thickness of the subglacial till layer over different regions in Greenland. Moreover, in southwest Greenland, we observe a change in the long‐term trend of dv/v for three stations, which might be consistent with the mass change rate (dM/dt) due to the "2012–2013 warm‐cold transition." These observations suggest that seismic noise auto‐correlation technique may be used to monitor both seasonal and long‐term changes of the GrIS. Plain Language Summary: The changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) have important implications for both scientific research and human society. Due to its large size, the change of the GrIS varies at different regions. Here, we apply a seismic monitoring technique to study the GrIS mass change by using seismographic stations deployed in Greenland. The advantage of using this technique is that we are able to monitor different locations in a relatively simple, low‐cost and in‐situ way, and obtain indicative information about the ice mass change over time. We specify the seasonal fluctuations of seismic signals and connect them with the subglacial setting at different regions in Greenland, and explore the potential of using these seismic techniques to monitor the long‐term changes of the GrIS. Key Points: The seasonal variations of relative velocity change (dv/v) have <3 months lag with respect to the surface Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) changeLarger lag times of dv/v may provide constrains for thicker subglacial till layers in the central Greenlanddv/v may be used for monitoring long‐term GrIS mass change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Freshwater input from Greenland ice sheet melt has been increasing in the past decades from warming temperatures. To identify the impacts from enhanced meltwater input into the subpolar North Atlantic from 1997 to 2021, we use output from two nearly identical simulations in the eddy‐rich model VIKING20X (1/20°) only differing in the freshwater input from Greenland: one with realistic interannually varying runoff increasing in the early 2000s and the other with climatologically (1961–2000) continued runoff. The majority of the additional freshwater remains within the boundary current enhancing the density gradient toward the warm and salty interior waters yielding increased current velocities. The accelerated boundary current shows a tendency to enhanced, upstream shifted eddy shedding into the Labrador Sea interior. Further, the experiments allow to attribute higher stratification and shallower mixed layers southwest of Greenland and deeper mixed layers in the Irminger Sea, particularly in 2015–2018, to the runoff increase in the early 2000s.

Föhn and katabatic winds (downslope winds) can increase ice sheet surface melt, run‐off, and ice‐shelf vulnerability to hydrofracture and are poorly constrained on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS). We use regional climate model simulations of the GIS and AIS to quantify and intercompare trends in downslope winds and associated melt since 1960. Results reveal surface melt associated with downslope wind is significant on both the GIS and AIS representing 27.5 ± 4.5% and 19.7 ± 3.8% of total surface melt respectively. Wind‐associated melt has decreased 31.8 ± 5.3% on the AIS while total melt decreased 15.4 ± 2.4% due to decreased föhn‐induced melt on the Antarctic Peninsula and increasing stratospheric ozone. Wind‐associated melt has increased 10.3 ± 2.5% on the GIS, combining with a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation and warmer surface to increase total melt 34 ± 5.8%. Plain Language Summary: Föhn and katabatic winds (wind that travels downslope) can increase ice sheet surface melt that increases sea levels and ice‐shelf vulnerability. We use regional climate model simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic (GIS and AIS) to identify trends in downslope winds and associated melt since 1960. Results reveal surface melt associated with downslope winds is significant on both the GIS and AIS representing 27.5 ± 4.5% and 19.7 ± 3.8% of total surface melt respectively. Wind‐associated melt has decreased 31.8 ± 5.3% on the AIS while total melt has decreased 15.4 ± 2.4% due to decreased föhn‐induced melt on the Antarctic Peninsula and increasing stratospheric ozone that decreases sunlight at the surface. Wind‐associated melt has increased 10.3 ± 2.5% on the GIS, combining with warmer surface temperatures to increase total melt 34 ± 5.8%. Key Points: Föhn and katabatic winds (downslope winds) and associated surface melt are prominent features on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheetsSurface melt trends associated with downslope winds have increased on the Greenland ice sheet and decreased on the Antarctic ice sheet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements from seismic ambient noise recorded on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) show complex and anomalous behavior at wave periods sensitive to ice (T < 3–4 s). To understand these complex observations, we compare them with synthetic ellipticity measurements obtained from synthetic ambient noise computed for various seismic velocity and attenuation models, including surface wave overtone effects. We find that in dry snow conditions within the interior of the GrIS, to first order the anomalous ellipticity observations can be explained by ice models associated with the accumulation and densification of snow into firn. We also show that the distribution of ellipticity measurements is strongly sensitive to seismic attenuation and the thermal structure of the ice. Our results suggest that Rayleigh wave ellipticity is well suited for monitoring changes in firn properties and thermal composition of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in a changing climate. Plain Language Summary: Surface meltwater is increasingly being routed and distributed through the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) changing the mechanical and thermal properties of the ice and resulting in accelerated ice flow. Here we observe complex and anomalous Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements at periods sensitive to the ice structure. We compare our observations with ellipticity measurements made on simulated seismic noise for various seismic velocity and attenuation models. We demonstrate that in the interior of the GrIS the ellipticity is sensitive to the accumulation and densification of snow as it compacts into glacier ice. The variation in the measurements is strongly sensitive to the thermal structure of the ice sheet which we estimate to be warmer than about −10°. These results demonstrate that Rayleigh wave ellipticity is well suited for monitoring changes in firn properties and thermal composition of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in a changing climate. Key Points: Densification of snow into firn has a first order effect on ellipticity measurements at periods sensitive to the iceThe distribution of ellipticity measurements is sensitive to the thermal composition of the iceEllipticity is a promising method for long term monitoring of ice properties and thickness beneath the seismic station [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice modulates the energy exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean through its kinematics. Marginal ice zone (MIZ) dynamics are complex and are not well resolved in routine observations. Here, we investigate sea ice dynamics in the Greenland Sea MIZ using in situ and remote sensing Lagrangian drift datasets. These datasets provide a unique view into ice dynamics spanning spatial scales. We find evidence of tidal currents strongly affecting sub‐daily ice motion. Velocity anomalies show abrupt transitions aligned with gradients in seafloor topography, indicating changes in ocean currents. Remote‐sensed ice floe trajectories derived from moderate resolution satellite imagery provide a view of small‐scale variability across the Greenland continental shelf. Ice floe trajectories reveal a west‐east increasing velocity gradient imposed by the East Greenland Current, with maximum velocities aligned along the continental shelf edge. These results highlight the importance of small scale ocean variability for ice dynamics in the MIZ. Plain Language Summary: Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean plays an important role in climate due to its influence on ocean circulation and air‐sea energy exchange. Ice motion results from competing and interacting effects of winds, ocean currents, and internal ice stresses. This study uses two novel observational datasets to analyze ice motion in the Greenland Sea and Fram Strait marginal ice zones. We find abrupt changes in the primary causes of ice motion associated with seafloor topography. In shallow seas, strong tidal currents affect ice drift, resulting in repeated opening and closing of the ice. Near the shelf edge, boundary currents increase ice drift speeds, causing ice pack shear. Sea ice models that ignore small‐scale ocean currents will underestimate ice deformation. Key Points: Ice dynamics measured with two new Lagrangian datasets show strong bathymetry dependent differences over short spatial scalesWind variability is insufficient to describe drift variability in regions with abrupt changes in bathymetry and large gradients in currentsDrifting buoy observations show a spatially heterogeneous imprint of tidal currents on ice dynamics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To advance our comprehension of the complex geological history and mantle dynamics in the North Atlantic region, we employ all available broadband seismic data recorded in Greenland to reveal an abnormal mantle transition zone (MTZ) structure. Central and eastern Greenland exhibits depressed 410 and 660 km discontinuities (d410 and d660, respectively) bordering the MTZ, indicative of a substantial thermal anomaly associated with an underlying plume, surpassing the 1,800°C threshold for post‐garnet phase transitions at the d660. Variations in MTZ thickness across Greenland stem from differing temperature anomalies at the d410 and d660, possibly linked to a tilted plume within the MTZ. These findings corroborate geodynamic models, elucidating the interaction between post‐garnet phase transitions and upwelling plumes. The results shed light on the origin of the enigmatic Icelandic hotspot track and its influence on the thermal and lithospheric structures beneath Greenland. Plain Language Summary: The physical and chemical processes responsible for producing the magnificent volcanic eruptions in Iceland and the North Atlantic region are debated issues in the geoscientific community despite numerous field and laboratory studies over the past several decades. One of the hypotheses for the formation of the volcanoes is that they originate from a column of hot rocks rising from the deep mantle, that is, a mantle plume. The geometry, depth extent, and temperature anomaly of the plume are not well defined but can be constrained using the topography of two phase‐transition boundaries approximately at the globally averaged depths of 410 and 660 km, respectively. By analyzing P‐to‐S converted phases from the two discontinuities recorded by seismic stations, our results support the existence of a mantle plume that is broader than most other plumes on Earth beneath east Greenland. In addition, the results suggest that the nature of the phase transition across the 660 km discontinuity is different between the hottest core of the plume stem and the colder peripheral areas. The existence of the particular type of phase transition in the plume center can explain the large dimension of the plume, the excessive volcanism and other observations in the area. Key Points: The central and east Greenland shows abnormal mantle transition zone (MTZ) thickness, indicating a deep‐seated mantle plumeSeismic data unveil the impact of post‐garnet phase transition at the 660‐km discontinuity on mantle dynamicsVariations in MTZ thickness suggest the existence of a tilted plume and offer insights into the plume behavior [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subglacial hydrology can exert an important control on ice flow by affecting friction at the ice‐bedrock interface. Here, we report on a series of subglacial drainage events along the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), initiating as far inland as 500 km from the margin of Zachariae Isstrøm. The drainage events exhibit local transient uplift, followed by prolonged subsidence, measured by differential satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR). In downstream regions, drainage events are associated with temporary acceleration in ice flow. The high spatiotemporal resolution of the DInSAR measurements allows for a detailed mapping of the drainage propagation pathway. We show that multiple drainage cascades have occurred along the same pathway over the years 2020–2022. Finally, the propagation speed of subglacial water flow is found to vary greatly along NEGIS, suggesting that fundamental differences could exist in the subglacial environment. Plain Language Summary: The presence of water flowing beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet impacts the friction exerted on ice flowing from inland to marginal regions, potentially affecting the rate of sea level rise by increasing ice discharge. Direct observations of the hydrological system beneath glaciers are, however, limited due to inaccessibility. Here, we present satellite observations of localized ice uplift and subsidence, which indicate water propagating below the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, from far inland to a major marine‐terminating glacier, Zachariae Isstrøm. In downstream regions, ice flow speeds up as the subglacial water passes. The measurements could suggest variations in the local subglacial environment, which provide important constraints for understanding the flow and stability of the ice stream. Key Points: Episodic subglacial drainage of water over a ∼500 km extent along the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is revealed by radar interferometryThe drainage events cause transient uplift and ice flow speed‐up in downstream regions, and multiple drainage cascades are observedPropagation speed of the drainage cascade varies widely along the ice stream [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We use airborne accumulation radar data acquired over the Greenland Ice Sheet between 2002 and 2018 to identify changes in ice slab extent and thickness. We show that ice slabs several meters thick were already present at least as early as 2002. Between 2012 and 2018, they expanded by 13,400–17,600 km2 inland, or 37%–44%. Our results document that the extremely warm summer of 2012 produced near‐surface ice layers at higher elevations, enabling ice slabs to develop with only moderate melting in the following summers. With repeat flights along a transect in southwest Greenland, we show that moderate melting primarily causes slab thickening through uniform accretion on top of the ice slabs, while large melting events can also trigger localized accretion below existing ice slabs.

Abstract One important feature of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) change is its strong seasonal fluctuation. Taking advantage of deployed seismographic stations in Greenland, we apply cross‐component auto‐correlation of seismic ambient noise to measure in‐situ near surface relative velocity change (dv/v) in different regions of Greenland. Our results demonstrate that dv/v measurements for most stations have less than 3 months lag times in comparison to the surface mass change. These various lag times may provide us constraints for the thickness of the subglacial till layer over different regions in Greenland. Moreover, in southwest Greenland, we observe a change in the long‐term trend of dv/v for three stations, which might be consistent with the mass change rate (dM/dt) due to the “2012–2013 warm‐cold transition.” These observations suggest that seismic noise auto‐correlation technique may be used to monitor both seasonal and long‐term changes of the GrIS.

We employ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s Operation IceBridge high-resolution airborne gravity from 2016, NASA's Ocean Melting Greenland bathymetry from 2015, ice thickness from Operation IceBridge from 2010 to 2015, and BedMachine v3 to analyze 20 major southeast Greenland glaciers. The results reveal glacial fjords several hundreds of meters deeper than previously thought; the full extent of the marine-based portions of the glaciers; deep troughs enabling warm, salty Atlantic Water (AW) to reach the glacier fronts and melt them from below; and few shallow sills that limit the access of AW. The new oceanographic and topographic data help to fully resolve the complex pattern of historical ice front positions from the 1930s to 2017: glaciers exposed to AW and resting on retrograde beds have retreated rapidly, while glaciers perched on shallow sills or standing in colder waters or with major sills in the fjords have remained stable.

Abstract Subglacial hydrology can exert an important control on ice flow by affecting friction at the ice‐bedrock interface. Here, we report on a series of subglacial drainage events along the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), initiating as far inland as 500 km from the margin of Zachariae Isstrøm. The drainage events exhibit local transient uplift, followed by prolonged subsidence, measured by differential satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR). In downstream regions, drainage events are associated with temporary acceleration in ice flow. The high spatiotemporal resolution of the DInSAR measurements allows for a detailed mapping of the drainage propagation pathway. We show that multiple drainage cascades have occurred along the same pathway over the years 2020–2022. Finally, the propagation speed of subglacial water flow is found to vary greatly along NEGIS, suggesting that fundamental differences could exist in the subglacial environment.

Abstract Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are important contributors of meltwater runoff and to global sea level rise. However, knowledge of GIC mass changes is largely restricted to the last few decades. Here we show the extent of 5327 Greenland GICs during Little Ice Age (LIA) termination (1900) and reveal that they have fragmented into 5467 glaciers in 2001, losing at least 587 km3 from their ablation areas, equating to 499 Gt at a rate of 4.34 Gt yr−1. We estimate that the long‐term mean mass balance in glacier ablation areas has been at least −0.18 to −0.22 m w.e. yr−1 and note the rate between 2000 and 2019 has been three times that. Glaciers with ice‐marginal lakes formed since the LIA termination have had the fastest changing mass balance. Considerable spatial variability in glacier changes suggest compounding regional and local factors present challenges for understanding glacier evolution.

Accurate projections of the mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) require a complete understanding of the ice‐dynamic response to climate forcings on seasonal and interannual timescales and would greatly benefit from more observational evidence. Here, we analyze a 5‐year, high‐resolution data set of ice velocities of the GrIS using K‐means, an unsupervised clustering algorithm, to identify ice‐sheet wide characteristic seasonal flow patterns. We include all areas flowing >0.3 m/d and obtain an ice‐sheet wide overview of the seasonality and the interannual variability. It shows both a spatial and interannual variability in seasonal flow patterns, both along individual glaciers and between glaciers. We compare with runoff from a regional climate model and infer that the ice‐sheet wide patterns are linked to the availability of water penetrating to the base of the ice. Plain Language Summary: The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing mass but the response from the marine outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic forcings is uncertain and limiting the accuracy of the estimated future mass loss. Here, we analyze a 5‐year satellite based ice velocity data set with an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution in order to investigate the variability on all fast flowing areas of the GrIS. We use a machine learning algorithm to sort the annual time series into characteristic seasonal patterns, and we compare the results to modeled runoff from a climate model. We find that individual glaciers are not classified to be one type, but the response depends on the availability of drained meltwater, and that the seasonal pattern of ice velocity varies spatially and temporally, both along individual glaciers and between neighboring glaciers. We conclude that the seasonal pattern of response to runoff provide insights to the evolution of the subglacial hydrological system during the runoff season. Understanding the response of ice flow to meltwater and how it is linked to the subglacial hydrological system is crucial for understanding the dynamic response of the ice sheet to future climate warming. Key Points: We have identified typical ice‐sheet wide seasonal ice‐flow patterns using an unsupervised ML algorithmThere is a spatial and interannual variability in the seasonal flow patterns both between and along glaciersThe spatiotemporal variability of the seasonal patterns provides new insights into the evolution of the basal hydrology depending on runoff [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The accessibility and simplicity of monitoring instruments and processing methods are crucial for environmental monitoring worldwide. There is growing evidence that proglacial discharge may be observed by listening to the glacier terminus using sophisticated tools, such as the micro‐barometer arrays that are used for nuclear‐test monitoring and the fiber‐optic technologies that are becoming increasingly used in geophysics. However, the prohibitive cost, instrumental complexity, overwhelming data volumes, and computational demands of these approaches mean that only the wealthiest countries can afford such technologies. We employ an intentionally inexpensive approach to monitor proglacial discharge by recording the audible sound that is generated near the glacier terminus, and we show that a simple microphone can tell us how much water is discharged by a glacier. This study demonstrates that sound can provide essential information on runoff and therefore contribute to environmental assessments of glaciers and disaster risk reduction of glacial flood events.

Spaceborne radar altimetry over ice sheets has exclusively focused on assessing volume changes through changes in surface elevation. For use in mass balance calculations, these measurements are supplemented with surface property information derived from regional climate models with limited large‐scale observational validation. Simultaneously, the strength at which a radar signal is reflected from the surface contains information on these same near‐surface properties. Here we show that a quantitative interpretation of European (ESA) CryoSat‐2 and French/Indian (CNES/ISRO) SARAL surface echo powers yields timeseries of pan‐Greenland wavelength‐scale roughness and surface density. Individually, the CryoSat‐2 and SARAL results strive toward providing an observational lens to enhance our current understanding of the surface processes affecting ice sheet mass balance and validate their representation by computational models. Taken together, they highlight how diversity in currently operational and future radar satellite altimetry missions can shed light on near‐surface vertical heterogeneity. Plain Language Summary: For three decades, satellite‐based radar altimeters have been measuring areas of thickening and thinning across the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). From these measurements we can calculate a mass balance, which is an important component in quantifying Greenland's contribution to global mean sea level rise. However, this calculation requires knowing ice sheet surface density. Even though predictable with specialized computer programs, observations are needed to ensure the computer results are accurate. In this study, we use three different radar data sets from two different satellites, to measure the surface density and roughness of the GrIS based on the strength of the radar altimetry surface echoes. As expected, surface roughness increases toward the ice sheet margin and in the vicinity of faster flowing ice. Surface density varies through time and space but appears strongly influenced by melt events (e.g., summer 2012). By comparing measurements between satellites, we can start piecing together how density changes vertically in the near surface; reflecting the processes operating at the time (i.e., snow fall, melting, melt percolation). These observations are the first step toward providing a new data set for refining the computer programs used to project Greenland evolution into the future. Key Points: In‐depth knowledge of near‐surface density is crucial for altimetry ice sheet mass balance estimatesWe provide the first, monthly, pan‐Greenland observations of surface roughness and density between 2013 and 2018Dual‐frequency results reflect deposition, melting, and percolation processes through their influence on vertical density heterogeneity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of Greenland glaciers in a warming climate depends on their depth below sea level, flow speed, surface melt, and ocean-induced undercutting at the calving front. We present an innovative mapping of bed topography in the frontal regions of Sermeq Avannarleq and Kujalleq, two major glaciers flowing into the ice-choked Torssukatak Fjord, central west Greenland. The mapping combines a mass conservation algorithm inland, multibeam echo sounding data in the fjord, and high-resolution airborne gravity data at the ice-ocean transition where other approaches have traditionally failed. We obtain a reliable, precision (±40 m) solution for bed topography across the ice-ocean boundary. The results reveal a 700 m deep fjord that abruptly ends on a 100-300 m deep sill along the calving fronts. The shallow sills explain the presence of stranded icebergs, the resilience of the glaciers to ocean-induced undercutting by warm Atlantic water, and their remarkable stability over the past century.

Abstract Understanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER‐X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emissions over the next 10 Kyr. Bifurcation points exist at global temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre‐industrial. For system states in the vicinity of the equilibrium ice volumes corresponding to these temperature anomalies, mass loss rate and sensitivity of mass loss to cumulative CO2 emission peak. These critical ice volumes are crossed for cumulative emissions of 1,000 and 2,500 GtC, which would cause long‐term sea level rise by 1.8 and 6.9 m respectively. In summary, we find tipping of the GIS within the range of the temperature limits of the Paris agreement.

Abstract We assess the contribution of flow over the Northeast Greenland Shelf (NEGS) to the total freshwater transport (FWT) through the Fram Strait. We analyze available observations since 2013 consisting of hydrographic sections, new mooring data, and surface‐geostrophic velocity and ERA5 winds. We provide first seasonal estimates of the FWT over the entire shelf and find a net southward FWT between 47 and 56 mSv (reference salinity 34.9), or ∼40%–45% of the total FWT through the Fram Strait. In summer, the long‐term mean FWT east of 8°W cumulates to 27 mSv southward, there is no trend toward increasing FWT, and new mooring data show a large seasonal cycle. We show that the NEGS contributes significantly to the Arctic freshwater outflow, however, uncertainty is high. To close the Arctic freshwater budget and provide better FWT estimates to the North Atlantic, sustained year‐round observations on the NEGS are essential.

Understanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER‐X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emissions over the next 10 Kyr. Bifurcation points exist at global temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre‐industrial. For system states in the vicinity of the equilibrium ice volumes corresponding to these temperature anomalies, mass loss rate and sensitivity of mass loss to cumulative CO2 emission peak. These critical ice volumes are crossed for cumulative emissions of 1,000 and 2,500 GtC, which would cause long‐term sea level rise by 1.8 and 6.9 m respectively. In summary, we find tipping of the GIS within the range of the temperature limits of the Paris agreement. Plain Language Summary: With ongoing carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the atmosphere heats up, which has dramatic consequences for the ice sheets on Earth. In this study, we focus on the Greenland ice sheet (GIS), which holds so much ice that a complete melting would cause the global sea level to rise by 7 m. However, future mass loss of the GIS is challenging to predict because it is a non‐linear function of temperature and occurs over long timescales. For this reason, we use CLIMBER‐X, which is a coupled model of the whole Earth system. We find that the GIS features two critical volume thresholds, whose crossing would imply extensive further mass loss so that it would be difficult for the ice to grow back, even in thousands of years. Near these critical ice volumes, the mass loss rates are particularly high, and differences in the total carbon dioxide emission have a large impact. In summary, if cumulative emissions larger than 1,000 Gt carbon are released into the atmosphere, the GIS will shrink below a critical threshold and mass loss will inevitably continue until a substantial part of the ice sheet has melted. Key Points: Bifurcation points exist at global mean temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre‐industrialMass loss rate and sensitivity to cumulative CO2 emission peak near the equilibrium ice volumes belonging to these temperature anomaliesSubstantial long‐term mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet for cumulative emissions larger than 1,000 Gt carbon [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Jakobshavn Isbræ, a major outlet glacier in Greenland, lost its protective ice shelf in 2002 and has been speeding up and retreating since. We image its grounding line for the first time with a terrestrial radar interferometer deployed in 2016 and detect its migration at tidal frequencies. The southern half of the glacier develops a floating section (3 km × 3 km) that migrates in phase with the tidal difference, up to a distance of 2.8 km, far more than previously expected. We attribute the migration to kilometer‐scale seawater intrusions, 10–20 cm in height, with the tide. The intrusions reveal that the glacier bed may be up to 800 m deeper than expected on the south side, which illustrates that our knowledge of bed topography remains limited for this glacier. We expect seawater intrusions to cause rapid melt of basal ice and play a major role in the glacier evolution.

Summertime Greenland blocking (GB) can drive melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which has global implications. A strongly increasing trend in GB in the early twenty‐first century was observed but is missing in climate model simulations. Here, we analyze the temporal evolution of GB in nearly 500 members from the CMIP6 archive. The recent period of increased GB is not present in the members considered. The maximum 10‐year trend in GB in the reanalysis, associated with the recent increase, lies almost outside the distributions of trends for any 10‐year period in the climate models. GB is shown to be partly driven by the sea surface temperatures and/or sea ice concentrations, as well as by anthropogenic aerosols. Further work is required to understand why climate models cannot represent a period of increased GB, and appear to underestimate its decadal variability, and what implications this may have. Plain Language Summary: An increasing trend in summertime atmospheric blocking over Greenland was observed during the early twenty‐first century. However, this trend is not reproduced in climate models. This may have important implication for climate change projections, as summertime Greenland blocking drives the melting of its ice sheet which is a major contributing factor to global sea level rise. Here, recent trends in Greenland blocking are assessed in nearly 500 ensemble members from a large archive of state‐of‐the‐art climate models. We find that a recent increasing trend like that observed is absent in all of the ensemble members, and a trend of such magnitude is very unlikely to be simulated in them, which suggests a deficiency in the climate model simulation of Greenland blocking. The model simulations do however suggest that Greenland blocking is partly forced by sea surface temperatures/sea ice concentrations and/or anthropogenic aerosols, but the response of the models to these forcings may be too weak. These results provide new understanding on drivers of Greenland blocking in climate models and offer avenues for model development designed to improve simulations of Greenland climate. Key Points: The observed rapid increase in summertime Greenland blocking during the first decade of the twenty‐first century has not continuedA period of increased summer Greenland blocking of similar magnitude to observed is rarely reproduced in a large ensemble of climate modelsDecadal variability in Greenland blocking in climate models is partly driven by SST/sea ice and/or anthropogenic aerosols [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two outstanding questions for the future of the Greenland Ice Sheet are (a) how enhanced meltwater draining beneath the ice will impact the behavior of large tidewater glaciers, and (b) to what extent tidewater glacier velocity is driven by changes at the terminus versus changes in sliding velocity due to meltwater. We present a two‐way coupled framework to simulate the nonlinear feedbacks of evolving subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics using the Subglacial Hydrology And Kinetic, Transient Interactions (SHAKTI) model within the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model (ISSM). Through coupled simulations of Helheim Glacier, we find that terminus effects dominate the seasonal velocity pattern up to 15 km from the terminus, while hydrology drives the velocity response upstream. With increased melt, the hydrology influence yields seasonal acceleration of several hundred meters per year in the interior, suggesting that hydrology will play an important role in future mass balance of tidewater glaciers. Plain Language Summary: Water draining under glaciers and ice sheets affects the friction between the ice and the bed, and controls how fast the ice can slide into the ocean, contributing to sea‐level rise. We present a framework for simulating the feedbacks between hydrology and ice flow. We investigate the relative influence of changes at the terminus of the glacier where it meets the ocean, versus changes in meltwater drainage, in determining how fast the glacier moves. Our modeling of Helheim Glacier in southeast Greenland highlights the importance of terminus effects up to 15 km from the terminus, and hydrology farther upstream, with increased melt yielding higher inland acceleration. These results suggest that meltwater will play an increasingly important role in the future behavior of glaciers. Key Points: We couple a subglacial hydrology model with an ice flow model to simulate the relationship between sliding velocity and effective pressureTerminus effects at Helheim Glacier drive velocity up to 15 km upstream, but seasonal hydrology controls velocity patterns further inlandIncreased melt accelerates ice inland of the main trunk, implying importance of hydrology in tidewater glacier future mass balance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential contribution of ice sheets remains the largest source of uncertainty in predicting sea‐level due to the limited predictive skill of numerical ice sheet models, yet effective planning necessitates that these predictions are credible and accompanied by a defensible assessment of uncertainty. While the use of large ensembles of simulations allows probabilistic assessments, there is no guarantee that these simulations are aligned with observations. Here, we present a probabilistic prediction of 21st century mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet calibrated with observations of surface speeds and mass change using a novel two‐stage surrogate‐based approach. Our results suggest a sea‐level contribution ranging from 4 to 30 cm at the year 2100, proviso the assumption that our chosen ice sheet model's physics represent reality. Plain Language Summary: Predicting sea level rise is important for social planning, but the contributions to sea level rise from ice sheets are still very uncertain. Contributions from ice sheets are uncertain because they behave according to difficult to observe physics that we're still a little bit fuzzy on, and this incomplete knowledge makes its way into the models that we use to predict the future of the ice sheets. To account for this and to simulate the full range of possible futures for the Greenland Ice Sheet, we run a large number of model simulations where we vary parameters that are not well known. We then pare these down based on which ones agree with some data collected by satellites. Based on these results, we think that the Greenland Ice Sheet could contribute between 2 inches and a foot to sea level rise by the year 2100, depending on what people do about greenhouse gas emissions. Key Points: Credible predictions of glacier mass loss need to be conditioned on observationsWe present a two‐stage Bayesian calibration to condition ensemble predictions on observationsConditioning on observations of surface speeds and cumulative mass loss corrects bias and reduces the credibility interval [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenland's bed topography is a primary control on ice flow, grounding line migration, calving dynamics, and subglacial drainage. Moreover, fjord bathymetry regulates the penetration of warm Atlantic water (AW) that rapidly melts and undercuts Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers. Here we present a new compilation of Greenland bed topography that assimilates seafloor bathymetry and ice thickness data through a mass conservation approach. A new 150 m horizontal resolution bed topography/bathymetric map of Greenland is constructed with seamless transitions at the ice/ocean interface, yielding major improvements over previous data sets, particularly in the marine-terminating sectors of northwest and southeast Greenland. Our map reveals that the total sea level potential of the Greenland ice sheet is 7.42 ± 0.05 m, which is 7 cm greater than previous estimates. Furthermore, it explains recent calving front response of numerous outlet glaciers and reveals new pathways by which AW can access glaciers with marine-based basins, thereby highlighting sectors of Greenland that are most vulnerable to future oceanic forcing.

Abstract Numerical modeling of ice sheet motion and hence projections of global sea level rise require information about the evolving subglacial environment, which unfortunately remains largely unknown due to its difficulty of access. Here we advance such subglacial observations by reporting multi‐year observations of seismic tremor likely associated with glacier sliding at Helheim Glacier. This association is confirmed by correlation analysis between tremor power and multiple environmental forcings on different timescales. Variations of the observed tremor power indicate that different factors affect glacial sliding on different timescales. Effective pressure may control glacial sliding on long (seasonal/annual) timescales, while tidal forcing modulates the sliding rate and tremor power on short (hourly/daily) timescales. Polarization results suggest that the tremor source comes from an upstream subglacial ridge. This observation provides insights on how different factors should be included in ice sheet modeling and how their timescales of variability play an essential role.