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The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea-level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher than in CMIP5, but projections of global mean thermal expansion are not. Using these projections as input to construct projections of GMSL change with IPCC AR5 methods, the 95th percentile of GMSL change at 2100 only increases by 3–7 cm. Projected rates of GMSL rise around 2100 increase more strongly, though, implying more pronounced differences beyond 2100 and greater committed sea-level rise. Intermodel differences in GMSL projections indicate that EffCS-based model selection may substantially alter the ensemble projections. GMSL change in 2100 is accurately predicted by time-integrated temperature change, and thus requires reducing emissions early to be mitigated.

The rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy is estimated using Seaglider observations of vertical water velocity in the midlatitude North Atlantic. This estimate is based on the large‐eddy method, allowing the use of measurements of turbulent energy at large scales O(1–10 m) to diagnose the rate of energy dissipated through viscous processes at scales O(1 mm). The Seaglider data considered here were obtained in a region of high stratification (1 × 10−4

Temperature and current measurements from two moorings onshore of the Celtic Sea shelf break, a well-known hot spot for tidal energy conversion, show the impact of passing summer storms on the baroclinic wavefield. Wind-driven vertical mixing changed stratification to permit an increased on-shelf energy transport, and baroclinic energy in the semidiurnal band appeared at the moorings 1–4 days after the storm mixed the upper 50 m of the water column. The timing of the maximum in the baroclinic energy flux is consistent with the propagation of the semidiurnal internal tide from generation sites at the shelf break to the moorings 40 km away. Also, the ∼3 day duration of the peak in M2 baroclinic energy flux at the moorings corresponds to the restratification time scale following the first storm.

Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of − 0.31 ± 0.21 W m−2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation. Key Points Observed maximum in ocean heat content trend in early 2000s is likely spurious Net incoming radiation (N) reduced by 0.31 ± 0.21 W m−2 during the warming pause Present-day estimates of N may contain opposing errors in radiative components

[1] Observations show that the upper 2 km of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean cooled throughout 2010 and remained cold until at least December 2011. We show that these cold anomalies are partly driven by anomalous air‐sea exchange during the cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and, more surprisingly, by extreme interannual variability in the ocean's northward heat transport at 26.5°N. This cooling driven by the ocean's meridional heat transport affects deeper layers isolated from the atmosphere on annual timescales and water that is entrained into the winter mixed layer thus lowering winter sea surface temperatures. Here we connect, for the first time, variability in the northward heat transport carried by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to widespread sustained cooling of the subtropical North Atlantic, challenging the prevailing view that the ocean plays a passive role in the coupled ocean‐atmosphere system on monthly‐to‐seasonal timescales.

[1] Vertical mixing, driven by turbulence in the ocean, underpins many of the critical interactions that allow life on earth to flourish since vertical buoyancy flux maintains global overturning circulation and vertical nutrient fluxes are critical to primary production. Prediction of the ocean system is therefore dependent on accurate simulation of turbulent processes that, by their very nature, are chaotic. A growing evidence base exists that provides insight into these complex processes and permits investigation of turbulence relative to better determined, and therefore predictable, parameters. Here we examine three time series of the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy (e) in “stability space”. We reveal an ordered structure within the mean distribution of e that compares well to a variety of proposed models of oceanic turbulence. The requirement for differing site-specific tuning and only partial success however raises questions over “missing physics” within such models and the validity of measurement techniques.

[1] We use control run data from three Met Office Hadley Centre climate models to investigate the relationship between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation balance (TOA), globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST); and globally averaged ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. All three models show substantial decadal variability in SST, which could easily mask the long-term warming associated with anthropogenic climate change over a decade. Regression analyses are used to estimate the uncertainty of TOA, given the trend in SST or OHC over the same period. We show that decadal trends in SST are only weakly indicative of changes in TOA. Trends in total OHC strongly constrain TOA, since the ocean is the primary heat store in the Earth System. Integrating OHC over increasing model levels, provides an increasingly good indication of TOA changes. To achieve a given accuracy in TOA estimated from OHC we find that there is a trade-off between measuring for longer or deeper. Our model results suggest that there is potential for substantial improvement in our ability to monitor Earth's radiation balance by more comprehensive observation of the global ocean.

We show that a breaking internal tide at a shelf edge is a fundamental control on the structural and functional properties of ecosystems. Contrasts in vertical mixing of nitrate between the shelf and the open ocean correspond with horizontal and vertical changes in phytoplankton communities, with largest cells found in surface waters at the shelf edge. Intense fishing activity is commonly seen at continental shelf edges, targeting spawning fish stocks. We suggest that the internal tide, a globally ubiquitous physical process at steep shelf edge bathymetry, supports shelf edge fisheries by providing large-celled phytoplankton for first-feeding fish larvae. The repeatability of the internal tide removes fish from the need to time spawning with a spring bloom. Also, with large phytoplankton cells dominating particulate organic carbon export, the internal tides could be an important influence on spatial and temporal variability in patterns of global carbon sequestration in deep water and sediments. Citation: Sharples, J., C. M. Moore, A. E. Hickman, P. M. Holligan, J. F. Tweddle, M. R. Palmer, and J. H. Simpson (2009), Internal tidal mixing as a control on continental margin ecosystems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23603, doi:10.1029/2009GL040683.

[1] Changes in ocean circulation associated with internal climate variability have a major influence on upper ocean temperatures, particularly in regions such as the North Atlantic, which are relatively well-observed and therefore over-represented in the observational record. As a result, global estimates of upper ocean heat content can give misleading estimates of the roles of natural and anthropogenic factors in causing oceanic warming. We present a method to quantify ocean warming that filters out the natural internal variability from both observations and climate simulations and better isolates externally forced air-sea heat flux changes. We obtain a much clearer picture of the drivers of oceanic temperature changes, being able to detect the effects of both anthropogenic and volcanic influences simultaneously in the observed record. Our results show that climate models are capable of capturing in remarkable detail the externally forced component of ocean temperature evolution over the last five decades.

1961–2003, with considerable spatial, interannual and inter-decadal variability. We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of the underlying warming. Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm 2 on average) than previous results. This new measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources of error in the ocean observing system. Our new analysis provides a useful addition for evaluation of coupled climate models, to the traditional fixed depth analyses. Citation: Palmer, M. D., K. Haines, S. F. B. Tett, and T. J. Ansell (2007), Isolating the signal of ocean global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23610, doi:10.1029/2007GL031712.

[1] A key process in the shelf sea pumping of CO2 to the open ocean is vertical mixing in the summer stratified zones of continental shelf seas. Here, we present measurements of profiles of the rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (ɛ), from which vertical mixing is inferred, for several locations in the summer stratified zones of the NW European shelf seas. At both sites we find significant thermocline mixing, with ∼20% of the observed turbulent dissipation taking place within the thermocline. We then present evidence to demonstrate that the thermocline mixing is a result of shear instability within the thermocline. This is contrary to the conventional view that vertical mixing in shelf seas is largely driven by boundary shear stresses.

Previous analyses by Levitus et al. [2000] (“Levitus”) of ocean temperature data have shown that ocean heat content has increased over the last fifty years with substantial temporal variability superimposed. The HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulates the Levitus trend if both natural and anthropogenic forcings are included. In the relatively well-observed northern hemisphere upper ocean, HadCM3 has similar temporal variability to Levitus but, like other AOGCMs, it has generally less variability than Levitus for the world ocean. We analyse the causes of this discrepancy, which could result from deficiencies in either the model or the observational dataset. A substantial contribution to the Levitus variability comes from a strong maximum around 500 m depth, absent in HadCM3. We demonstrate a possibly large sensitivity to the method of filling in the observational dataset outside the well-observed region, and advocate caution in using it to assess AOGCM heat content changes.