1. Higher Onshore Wind Energy Potentials Revealed by Kilometer‐Scale Atmospheric Modeling.
- Author
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Chen, Shuying, Goergen, Klaus, Hendricks Franssen, Harrie‐Jan, Winkler, Christoph, Poll, Stefan, Houssoukri Zounogo Wahabou, Yoda, Linssen, Jochen, Vereecken, Harry, Stolten, Detlef, and Heinrichs, Heidi
- Subjects
RENEWABLE energy transition (Government policy) ,WIND power ,WIND speed ,CARBON offsetting ,RENEWABLE energy sources - Abstract
Reliable and highly resolved information about onshore wind energy potential (WEP) is essential for expanding renewable energy to eventually achieve carbon neutrality. In this pilot study, simulated 60 m wind speeds (ws60m) from a km‐scale, convection‐permitting 3.3 km‐resolution ICON‐LAM simulation and often‐used 31 km‐resolution ERA5 reanalysis are evaluated at 18 weather masts. The estimated ICON‐LAM and ERA5 WEPs are then compared using an innovative approach with 1.8 million eligible wind turbine placements over southern Africa. Results show ERA5 underestimates ws60m with a Mean Error (ME) of −1.8 m s−1 (−27%). In contrast, ICON‐LAM shows a ME of −0.1 m s−1 (−1.8%), resulting in a much higher average WEP by 48% compared to ERA5. A combined Global Wind Atlas‐ERA5 product reduces the ws60m underestimation of ERA5 to −0.3 m s−1 (−4.7%), but shows a similar average WEP compared to ERA5 resulting from the WEP spatial heterogeneity. Plain Language Summary: Onshore wind energy is expected to play a major role in the global energy transition. However, reliable and highly resolved information on the onshore wind energy potential (WEP) crucial for expansion planning is missing over southern Africa. This study evaluated high resolution 3.3 km ICON‐LAM atmospheric simulations and 31 km ERA5 reanalysis against 60 m wind speed (ws60m) observations and compared the corresponding derived WEPs. The results show that ERA5 underestimates ws60m by 27%, resulting in a 48% lower WEP assessment than ICON‐LAM, whose ws60m simulation results show a very small bias. Underestimation of wind energy yields may hinder further expansion of wind energy, as less economic performance is expected, which underlines the importance of highly resolved weather data. Key Points: Simulated ERA5 and km‐scale ICON‐LAM wind speeds are evaluated and corresponding southern Africa wind energy potentials are calculatedERA5 underestimates 60 m wind speed, whereas ICON‐LAM produces lower biases in the wind speed simulationsHigher wind energy potentials are revealed from wind speeds simulated by ICON‐LAM compared to ERA5, which is often used for such assessments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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