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Abstract: Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm−2. Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.

Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TWmax). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TWmax and significant regional TWmax variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ∼2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TWmax of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TWmax in specific areas.

Dust and high cloud interactions are critical for climate change, primarily due to the dominant roles of high cloud in the greenhouse effect and the continental precipitation. Nonetheless, disentangling the specific impacts of dust from the overlying meteorology influence on high clouds presents great challenges. In this study, we construct a meteorological pattern that successfully reveal the intricate connection between high cloud distribution and atmospheric conditions. Through this strong bounded relationship, we find that dust exhibits notable controls over the facilitation or inhibition of ice particle growth contingent upon the prevailing meteorological fields. More dust can increase precipitation rate and shorten high cloud lifetime particularly under favorable meteorology. These findings underscore the crucial role of dust concentration in mitigating global warming for future climate change. Plain Language Summary: Dust particles in the atmosphere play a crucial role in the formation and dissipation of high clouds, which can significantly impact global climate and weather patterns. By analyzing satellite observations and climate model data, we discovered that dust can either enhance or suppress the growth of ice crystals, depending on the atmospheric conditions. In moist environments with favorable weather, increased dust leads to larger ice crystals and more precipitation, accelerating the life cycle of high clouds. Conversely, in dry conditions with unfavorable weather, excessive dust competes for limited moisture, resulting in smaller ice crystals, although it can still increase rainfall during the dissipation stage of high clouds. As climate change progresses and dust storms become more frequent, the increased presence of dust in the atmosphere may lead to more extreme weather events and potentially mitigate some of the warming effects caused by high clouds. Understanding these complex interactions between dust, high clouds, and weather conditions is essential for improving climate models and predicting future changes in Earth's water cycle and energy balance. Key Points: Extracted first principal component, highly correlated with high cloud fraction, isolating meteorological effects on cloudsDust facilitates ice crystal formation and precipitation, catalyzing cloud lifecycle and ultimately modifying radiative effectsIncreased dust accelerates high cloud lifecycle, causing more extreme weather and mitigating climate warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Horizontal and vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere of the Arctic under progressing global warming is examined using a large‐scale ensemble model data set. Advection is decomposed into terms related to the basic state of the atmosphere and transient eddies and compared against a non‐warming experiment. During summer, horizontal moisture advection increases mainly by transient eddies advecting moisture from the lower latitudes. During winter, enhanced evaporation due to reduced sea ice becomes a source of moisture diminishing the role of transient eddies moistening the atmosphere. This effect intensifies under extreme global warming, turning the change in total horizontal advection in the lower troposphere negative. Diminished horizontal advection during winter is counteracted by vertical advection accompanied with enhanced evaporation and upper‐level horizontal advection maintaining the increase in column moisture. These results improve our understanding of how the water cycle in the Arctic responds via atmospheric processes under global warming. Plain Language Summary: This study uses a data set with a large number of members to investigate how the atmosphere is moistened in the Arctic (north of 70˚N) under various stages of global warming. The movement of moisture is summarized in terms of horizontal and vertical components of advection, a measure of how the atmosphere is moistened in a given specific humidity gradient and wind, which is decomposed into parts related to the average state of the atmosphere and parts related to high‐frequency phenomena, such as cyclones. It is found that (a) during summer, moisturization of the Arctic is mainly driven by horizontal movement of moisture from a remote source in the lower latitude, (b) during winter, this moisturization due to horizontal movement of moisture is suppressed and is driven more by vertical movement of moisture due to reduction of sea ice and increased evaporation. As global warming progresses, the role or horizontal movement of moisture is taken over by the local process of evaporation and vertical movement of moisture. This research helps us understand how the water cycle in the Arctic changes with severe global warming and improves our knowledge of the atmospheric processes that govern the climate system through various feedbacks. Key Points: Moisture advection in the Arctic under progressing global warming is examined using a large‐scale ensemble model simulation data setMoistening effect of horizontal advection in the lower troposphere is enhanced for summer and diminished for winter under extreme warmingEnhanced horizontal advection in the upper layer and surface evaporation are consistent with increased column moisture during winter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming intensifies, the coupling relationship between negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD) and La Niña has substantially changed. However, the characteristics and mechanisms of these changes are not yet fully understood. Here, we find that the impact of La Niña on nIOD has considerably weakened since 1999, with the frequency of nIOD occurrences during La Niña years plummeting to a mere one‐third of the pre‐1999 levels. This is primarily attributed to the early onset of Indian summer monsoon and the decrease in La Niña intensity, while the effect of variations in Bjerknes feedback is relatively minor. Model simulations suggest that the influence of La Niña on nIOD will continue to weaken under future global warming through similar mechanisms as in the observations, increasing the complexity of air‐sea coupling in the Indian Ocean. Plain Language Summary: The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD) has significant impacts on both local and global climate change. La Niña is a major trigger for nIOD. However, as the globe warms up, the connection between nIOD and La Niña has changed a lot. This study analyze observation and reanalysis data from the 1950s onwards to see how nIOD and La Niña are linked. We find that La Niña has had less impact on nIOD since 1999. This is because the summer monsoon starts earlier, causing changes in wind patterns over the Indian Ocean. La Niña normally brings westerly wind anomalies in the Indian Ocean, but these winds are weakened because of the early monsoon. This makes it harder for nIOD to form. The feedback loop known as the Bjerknes feedback doesn't play a big role in maintaining nIOD. Furthermore, the reduction in La Niña intensity also contribute to weakening the relationship between La Niña and nIOD. Models predict that La Niña's impact on nIOD will continue to weaken under future global warming, increasing the complexity of air‐sea coupling in the Indian Ocean and leading to more challenges in forecasting. Key Points: The relationship between La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole has weakened significantly in this centuryThe spring‐summer easterly anomaly induced by the premature summer monsoon weakens the La Niña‐induced westerly anomalyThe impact of La Niña on negative Indian Ocean Dipole will continue to weaken under future global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical processes governing a tropical cyclone's lifecycle are largely understood, but key processes occur at scales below those resolved by global climate models. Increased resolution may help simulate realistic tropical cyclone intensification. We examined fully coupled, global storm‐resolving models run at resolutions in the range 28–2.8 km in the atmosphere and 28–5 km in the ocean. Simulated tropical cyclone activity, peak intensity, intensification rate, and horizontal wind structure are all more realistic at a resolution of ∼5 km compared with coarser resolutions. Rapid intensification, which is absent at typical climate model resolutions, is also captured, and exhibits sensitivity to how, and if, deep convection is parameterized. Additionally, the observed decrease in inner‐core horizontal size with increasing intensification rate is captured at storm‐resolving resolution. These findings highlight the importance of global storm‐resolving models for quantifying risk and understanding the role of intense tropical cyclones in the climate system. Plain Language Summary: Simulating strong tropical storms (i.e., major hurricanes, super typhoons) with climate models is challenging because important processes that act to intensify a storm occur over spatial scales that are too small for global models to capture. Typical models lack sufficient resolution in the atmosphere and ocean, often constrained by computational resources. Recently, in a few models, resolution has increased to a point where each grid cell represents an area of just a few square kilometres, a significant leap of one or two orders of magnitude. We analyzed tropical storms simulated by these state‐of‐the‐art, so‐called storm‐resolving models and found that peak tropical storm intensity and the rate at which storms intensify are both more realistic. These models also simulate the rapid intensification of tropical storms and capture the small eye diameters often seen in the most intense storms. Our work provides evidence that storm‐resolving resolution may help us better understand the role of tropical storms in the climate system and predict their behavior in a warming climate. Key Points: Simulated tropical cyclone characteristics analyzed in two fully coupled global climate models at atmospheric resolutions of 28 to 2.8 kmTropical cyclone intensification rate is close to observations at resolutions of 5 km or finer, and rapid intensification is capturedStorm‐resolving models also capture the observed relationship between high intensification rate and small inner‐core size [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical wetlands account for ∼20% of the global total methane (CH4) emissions, but uncertainties remain in emission estimation due to the inaccurate representation of wetland spatiotemporal variations. Based on the latest satellite observational inundation data, we constructed a model to map the long‐term time series of wetland extents over the Sudd floodplain, which has recently been identified as an important source of wetland CH4 emissions. Our analysis reveals an annual, total wetland extent of 5.73 ± 2.05 × 104 km2 for 2003–2022, with a notable accelerated expansion rate of 1.19 × 104 km2 yr−1 during 2019–2022 driven by anomalous upstream precipitation patterns. We found that current wetland products generally report smaller wetland areas, resulting in a systematic underestimation of wetland CH4 emissions from the Sudd wetland. Our study highlights the pivotal role of comprehensively characterizing the seasonal and interannual dynamics of wetland extent to accurately estimate CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains. Plain Language Summary: Methane (CH4) plays an important role in global warming. About one‐fifth of global CH4 emissions come from tropical wetlands, with the Sudd wetland in tropical Africa presenting as a hotspot for CH4 emissions. In this study, we generate a monthly wetland map series based on the latest satellite observation for the Sudd wetland. Our results show that wetland area dynamics present large seasonal and interannual variabilities. However, current widely used wetland products tend to indicate smaller sizes and variations of wetlands, which might lead to the underestimation of wetland CH4 emissions. We point out that refined maps of tropical wetlands can help reduce the uncertainties of CH4 emission estimations. Key Points: Extended monthly inundation maps across the Sudd wetland for 2003–2022Rapid growth of the Sudd wetland extent for 2019–2022 driven by upstream precipitationUnderestimation of methane emissions from the Sudd wetland due to the inadequate characterization of wetland extent [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Midlatitude Europe (ME) emerges as a prominent heatwave hotspot with rapid increases in summer surface air temperature and heatwave days since 1979, surpassing the global land averages by approximately 2.6 and 2.3 times, respectively. The circulation analogs‐based dynamic adjustment reveals that approximately 38% and 35% of these trends result from shifts in zonal dipolar circulation patterns over the North Atlantic (NA) and Europe, crucial for the enhanced warming compared to the global land average. The circulation changes are associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the NA. This warming pattern resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and is predominantly induced by greenhouse gases. Moreover, the stronger air temperature response in ME to decreased aerosols amplifies warming, contributing to the rapid increase in heatwave frequency. These findings highlight a prominent influence of anthropogenic forcings on the swift surge of European heatwaves compared to global land, with a potential implication for adaptation strategies and risk management. Plain Language Summary: Midlatitude Europe is experiencing a significant increase in heatwaves, with summer temperatures and heatwave occurrences rising much faster than the global land averages since 1979. One of the key contributors to this rapid warming is the changes in zonal dipolar circulation patterns over the NA and Europe, which are linked to the warm sea surface temperatures in the NA. This warming pattern, resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, is largely caused by greenhouse gases and additionally influenced by reduced aerosols and natural forcing. Furthermore, the stronger response of air temperatures in midlatitude Europe to decreased aerosol emissions intensifies summer warming, contributing to a rapid increase in heatwave days. These findings highlight the significant impact of anthropogenic forcings on the observed surge of heatwaves in Europe compared to global land, with an important implication for developing strategies to adapt to these changing climate conditions and managing the associated risks. Key Points: Midlatitude Europe exhibits more rapid increases in summer heatwave frequency than the global land averages in recent decadesAtmospheric circulation changes contributing about one third of the observed warming trend, further intensify the rapid increases in summer heatwave frequencyLocal air temperature response to reduced aerosol emissions contributes about half of the enhanced warming compared to the global land average [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recently‐observed poleward shift in western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) genesis has increased the TC threat to East Asia. We find that the poleward shift of TC genesis since 1979 is linked to mega‐ENSO. A downscaling analysis of TC genesis latitude given the constraint of mega‐ENSO using 30 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show a continued increasing poleward shift with additional warming. We use the dynamic genesis potential index as a TC proxy in future CMIP6 simulations. These simulations show enhanced TC formation in the subtropics and decreased TC formation in the tropics. Modeled TCs in CMIP6 high‐resolution models that well represent mega‐ENSO project future poleward shifts in TC genesis. Both observations and simulations show that extra‐tropical North Pacific sea surface temperature warming associated with mega‐ENSO are the primary driver of the TC genesis poleward shift. Our study provides new insights into climate change‐driven TC migration. Plain Language Summary: The observed poleward shift in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific has increased the threat from these storms to East Asia. Until now, it remains unclear whether TC genesis will continue to move poleward in the future, due to both a relatively short reliable observational TC record as well as model inconsistencies. This study provides evidence that the poleward migration of TC genesis will likely continue due to anthropogenic warming. We find that there is a strong relationship between TC genesis latitude and a mode of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability termed mega‐ENSO. We find using a suite of 30 climate models comprising the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that future poleward trends in TC genesis latitude are likely to continue. This poleward shift is observed whether using projected trends in mega‐ENSO or an index that measures the conduciveness of the environment for TC formation. Modeled tropical cyclones in high resolution simulations from CMIP6 also show a continued projected poleward shift in TC genesis. This poleward shift in TC genesis appears largely related to changes in extra‐tropical SST warming associated with mega‐ENSO. Key Points: The recently‐observed poleward shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is related strongly to mega‐ENSOChanges in modeled TCs and a TC proxy in a warming climate show a consistent northward TC genesis migrationExtra‐tropical sea surface temperature warming associated with mega‐ENSO appears responsible for poleward TC genesis movement [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Silver is a highly toxic element for marine organisms. However, its controlling factor in marine sediments remains largely unknown, limiting our understanding of its biogeochemical cycling. Based on a sediment core from the Vietnam upwelling area in the South China Sea, it is found that Ag is significantly enriched in sediments of this area (as high as 0.39 μg/g), and it shows a very similar geochemical behavior to Ca and Sr. Our study supports the theory that Ag could be a marine paleo‐productivity indicator. Burial of Ag over the past 3,200 years shows an abrupt increase at around 1850 CE, in concordance with the global atmospheric CO2 record. It is hypothesized that elevated CO2 and global warming enhance marine productivity in the Vietnam coastal upwelling area, favoring the burial of Ag. Human‐induced global warming thus significantly impacts its biogeochemical cycling. Plain Language Summary: Cycling of elements in Earth systems is fundamental to Earth vitality. Examining biogeochemical cycling of elements is thus important in geoscience research. Global warming in recent time has exerted significant impact on the cycles of some elements, including carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). This imposes challenges to the integrity and security of Earth ecosystems. However, little is known about some other bio‐active elements. For example, silver (Ag) is highly toxic to marine organisms, but its occurrence, distribution, and fate under a warming background is largely unknown. We analyzed a marine core from the South China Sea, Western Pacific. It was found that concentrations of Ag in the sediments were pretty high, and its burial rate showed an abrupt increase at around 1850 CE. This is probably associated with increased marine productivity as Earth warmed. This study advances our understanding of the Ag cycle. Key Points: High concentrations of and significant variations in Ag were found in marine sedimentsAg in marine sediments is a marker for ocean paleoproductivityGlobal warming favors the burial of Ag in oceans [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Lakes Region (GLR) of North America is at the intersection of multiple extratropical cyclone (ETC) tracks, and the region's cold‐season climate is heavily influenced by the large temperature gradients and intense precipitation associated with these cyclones. The goal of this study is to understand how ETCs are changing within a warming climate. Historical GLR cyclone characteristics from 1959 to 2021 are examined using a storm tracking algorithm and the ERA‐5 atmospheric reanalysis. Of the 886 cyclones identified, half are the large long‐track cyclones that are typically included in ETC studies, and half are smaller short‐track cyclones that, while not always considered in ETC studies, still have an important impact on the GLR with significant precipitation trends. While all cyclones exhibit strong interannual variability, storm trajectories appear to be migrating northward and, most notably, the cyclones are becoming warmer and wetter at a rate faster than the background climate. Plain Language Summary: Winter weather patterns in the Great Lakes Region of the United States are driven by large‐scale weather systems known as "extratropical cyclones." Even with a warming climate, the Great Lakes Region experiences highly variable winters, with cold‐air outbreaks, extreme snowfall, and mild temperatures all possible from year to year. This study uses historical analyzed atmospheric data to identify and track extratropical cyclones that pass through the Great Lakes Region in order to understand how the cyclones have changed along with our changing climate. We find that the airmasses within the cyclones have increased in moisture and warmed up faster than the overall climate. We also find that the cyclone tracks have shifted northward, implying that the frequency of warm temperatures and heavy rainfall in the wintertime is increasing for the lower portion of the Great Lakes. Key Points: Cold season extratropical cyclones that pass through the Great Lakes region are shifting to more northern tracksThe number and intensity of Great Lakes cyclones do not show an increasing trendGreat Lakes extratropical cyclones are warming and are increasing in moisture at a rate faster than the background climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem‐scale photosynthetic efficiency (EPE) is proposed as an effective indicator to quantify gross primary productivity (GPP), but how the coupling between EPE and GPP varies as vegetation resilience decreases has not been evaluated. Here, we quantified forest resilience with optimized Bayesian models. With the use of multisource satellite and modeling data, our study revealed that forests on the Loess Plateau and in the Qinba Mountains in China are experiencing rapid resilience loss and are already facing mortality warnings after 2010. Reductions in resilience also drove the marked decoupling of GPP from EPE. Notably, the decline in resilience was accompanied by a decrease in EPE in about 74% of the forests while GPP increased. The mechanism underlying this decoupling could be attributed to enhanced atmospheric water demand and soil water constraints. The dynamic relationships found here could help to improve forest mortality models and enhance photosynthesis‐based GPP evaluation. Plain Language Summary: The persistence and functionality of forest ecosystems highly depend on their resilience. Low‐resilience forests may be unable to absorb changes and achieve system variable stabilization under perturbations in external drivers and may undergo irreversible system shifts. Reduced resilience is often caused by impaired physiological functions, which inevitably affects forest photosynthetic processes and carbon sinks. Our study on fragile ecosystems in China revealed that forests are rapidly losing resilience and are already facing mortality warnings after 2010. This phenomenon has also led to significant decoupling of carbon sinks from photosynthesis, driven by an elevated atmospheric water demand and soil water deficits. These findings demonstrate that forests will exhibit greater risk of mortality across broad scales under global warming and that photosynthetic proxies cannot be consistently used for evaluating carbon sequestration in ecosystems. Key Points: Early mortality warning signals have been detected for different forest types since 2010A reduction in forest resilience weakens the relationship between the gross primary productivity and photosynthetic efficiencyThe decoupling of forest photosynthesis from carbon sinks exhibits different response patterns to soil water and atmospheric drying [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Idealized general circulation models (GCMs) suggest global‐mean precipitation ceases to increase with warming in hot climates because evaporation is limited by the available solar radiation at the surface. We investigate the extent to which this generalizes in comprehensive GCMs. We find that in the Community Atmosphere Model, global‐mean precipitation increases approximately linearly with global‐mean surface temperatures up to about 330 K, where it peaks at 5 mm day−1. Beyond 330 K, global‐mean precipitation decreases substantially despite increasing surface temperatures because of increased atmospheric shortwave absorption by water vapor, which decreases the shortwave radiation available for evaporation at the surface. Precipitation decreases in the tropics and subtropics but continues to increase in the extratropics because of continuously strengthening poleward moisture transport. Precipitable water increases everywhere, resulting in longer water‐vapor residence times and implying more episodic precipitation. Other GCMs indicate global‐mean precipitation might exhibit a smaller maximum rate and begin to decrease at lower surface temperatures. Plain Language Summary: Earth's climate has experienced substantial changes over its history, including periods of extremely cold temperatures where most regions contained ice, and periods of extremely warm temperatures where most regions contained no ice. In this study, we explore how precipitation changed in extremely cold and warm climates using a unique set of coupled climate model simulations. We find that global‐mean precipitation increases linearly with global‐mean surface temperatures up to 330 K, where it peaks at 5 mm day−1 and then decreases as surface temperatures further increase. This occurs because in hot climates, global‐mean precipitation is almost entirely balanced by absorbed shortwave radiation at the surface. As the climate warms, the atmosphere contains more water vapor, resulting in increased absorption of shortwave radiation within the atmosphere and decreased absorption of shortwave radiation at the surface. This decreases the energy available for surface evaporation. We show that other climate models exhibit qualitatively similar behavior but indicate global‐mean precipitation might exhibit a smaller maximum rate and begin to decrease at lower surface temperatures. These results demonstrate the need to better understand Earth's hydrological cycle in hot climates. These results also have large implications for understanding weathering in past climates and the habitability of other Earth‐like planets. Key Points: In CAM4, global‐mean precipitation increases linearly with surface temperatures up to 330 K, then decreases with higher temperaturesPrecipitation decreases at high temperatures due to increased atmospheric shortwave absorption by water vapor, decreasing surface absorptionAt high temperatures, precipitation decreases in most regions, but continues to increase in the extratropics due to eddy moisture transport [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that the winter Beaufort High (BH) index defined by sea level pressure (SLP) has a robust negative trend under the scenarios SSP5‐8.5 and SSP2‐4.5, with a reduction by about 5 hPa and 2 hPa, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The negative trends in the BH SLP are associated with the changes in the background SLP over the Arctic basin. However, the vorticity of the winter BH tends to intensify under SSP5‐8.5, but shows no robust increase under SSP2‐4.5. The intensification is associated with the enhanced ridge over the Western Arctic. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the dynamic aspects of the BH, such as vorticity. Based on this assessment, under the most likely emissions scenario, the winter BH is likely to weaken through the 21st century, in terms of SLP, but shows no robust changes in term of vorticity. Plain Language Summary: We used the latest IPCC global climate model outputs to investigate the wintertime changes in the Beaufort High (BH). Under the climate change scenarios, during winter, the sea level pressure (SLP) over the BH region is expected to decrease. The SLP reduction is up to 5 hPa by the end‐of‐the‐century. Thus, the BH seems to become weaker. However, its vorticity tends to increase under SSP5‐8.5, mostly due to the intensification of the ridge over the western North America. Key Points: The Beaufort High (BH) index defined by sea level pressure (SLP) decreases under warming climate scenariosMeanwhile, the BH vorticity tends to intensify due to the change in the ridge over the Western ArcticBesides the SLP, impact studies of the BH on the Arctic Ocean need to consider its dynamics such as vorticity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon storage technology is primarily targeted in saline formations, which is a porous rock matrix filled with brine, sealed with a low permeability caprock. There are significant variations of CO2 wetting properties, typically reported in the literature as contact angle of CO2 and brine interacting with a rock material, suggesting that CO2 could become wetting under geostorage conditions and negatively impact containment effectiveness. Here, we performed the first controlled laboratory measurements of CO2‐brine contact angles on shale rocks from low permeability sealing formations with distinctive mineralogic properties—calcite‐rich, quartz‐rich, and dolomite‐rich. We targeted temperatures at 40° and 100°C, pressures at 8.3, 34.5, and 62.1 MPa, and salinity at 35,000 and 260,000 ppm. Results show no significant change in contact angle with mineralogy, temperature, pressure, salinity, and CO2 bubble size. We conclude that caprocks will remain water‐wet at geologic CO2 storage conditions and will not lose their capillary sealing capacity. Plain Language Summary: Carbon capture and storage technology is gaining momentum to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to mitigate global warming by capturing the CO2 produced by stationary industrial sources, transporting it, and then storing it deep underground. CO2 storage is primarily targeted in saline formations, which is a porous rock matrix filled with brine, sealed with a low permeability caprock. Several studies have examined the sealing ability of caprocks and suggested that CO2 could become wetting under geostorage conditions and negatively impact containment effectiveness. Our controlled laboratory experiments show caprocks with different mineral compositions will remain water‐wet at geologic CO2 storage conditions and will not lose their capillary sealing ability. Key Points: Performed first CO2‐brine contact angle experiments on shale rocks from sealing formations with distinctive mineralogic propertiesNo change in contact angle with mineralogy, temperature (100°C), pressure (62 MPa), salinity (260,000 ppm), and bubble size (200–2,500 μm)Caprock minerals will remain water‐wet at geologic CO2 storage conditions and will not lose their capillary sealing capacity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (TCs), especially intense TCs, pose serious threats to life and property particularly in the affected coastal regions. Understanding the factors determining the TC intensification rate (IR) remains a great challenge. This study identifies the dominant factors responsible for the observed significant increase in TC IR over the western North Pacific in recent decades using the energetically based dynamical system model of TC intensification. It is found that the environmental dynamical efficiency mainly contributed by vertical wind shear and upper‐level divergence is responsible for the long‐term changes in TC IR during the strong TC stage, but it played a secondary role in the long‐term changes in IR during the weak TC stage. The latter were primarily contributed by the maximum potential intensity, which is primarily determined by sea surface temperature. Results also strongly suggest that global warming is the primary driver of the long‐term changes in TC IR. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclone (TC) intensification is closely associated with the extent of damage caused by these storms. The TC intensification rate (IR) over the western North Pacific (WNP), particularly in tropical regions, has shown a significant increasing trend in recent decades. This study employs an energetically based dynamical system model of TC intensification to quantitatively unveil factors driving the long‐term changes in TC IR over the WNP. Results show that the thermodynamic and dynamic factors exhibit different effects at different stages of TCs. The maximum potential intensity is found to be the most important factor contributing to the long‐term changes in TC IR at the weak TC stage, while the environmental dynamical efficiency, mainly governed by vertical wind shear and upper‐level divergence, plays the predominant role at the strong TC stage. Although the long‐term changes in TC IR over the WNP result from a combination of global warming and internal climate variabilities, global warming is the primary driver of the long‐term changes in TC IR based on quantitative analysis. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation exhibits a secondary influence, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation contributes little. These results can help enhance forecasting capabilities and future projections of TC activities. Key Points: The environmental dynamical efficiency dominantly controls the long‐term changes in TC intensification rate during the strong TC stageDuring the weak TC stage, the long‐term changes in intensification rate are primarily driven by the maximum potential intensityGlobal warming is the primary driver of the long‐term changes in TC intensification rate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models indicate that a warmer environment will increase low‐level moisture, potentially intensify extreme precipitation. However, its impact on different rainfall types remains unclear. Using satellite data, we examined changes in light (0‐95th percentile, ≤5.28 mm hr−1) and heavy (95‐100th percentile, >5.28 mm hr−1) precipitation in the tropics from 1998 to 2019. Our findings show a −9 ± 2% (23 ± 2%) change in heavy (light) rain intensity and a 13 ± 2% (−24 ± 1%) change in heavy (light) rain frequency. These changes link to warmer sea surface temperatures, increased atmospheric stability and water vapor, and weakened upward velocity. These insights shed light on how heavy and light precipitation patterns respond to changing climate, emphasizing the complexities within the hydrological cycle. Plain Language Summary: The hydrologic cycle depends greatly on precipitation. With the expectation of climate warming causing substantial changes to the global water cycle, comprehending these shifts becomes pivotal in foreseeing how climate changes will affect society. Climate models suggest that as temperatures rise, low‐level moisture will increase. However, the specific impacts of this heightened moisture on the intensity and frequency of precipitation events remain uncertain. Analyzing data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (1998–2019), we found notable changes: a 23 ± 2% increase in light rain intensity, a −9 ± 2 % decrease in heavy rain intensity, a 13 ± 2 % rise in heavy rain frequency, and a significant −24 ± 1% decrease in light rain frequency. These changes result diverse factors like warming oceans, stabilized atmospheric conditions, increased water vapor, and weakened upward velocity. This underscores the intricate interplay between different rainfall types and how they respond to the evolving climate. Key Points: In the tropics from 1998 to 2019, heavy rain intensity decreased and light rain intensity increasedIn the tropics from 1998 to 2019, heavy rain frequency increased and light rain frequency decreasedRain shifting patterns linked to increased SST, atmospheric stability, and water vapor and decreased upward velocity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during the early boreal spring can trigger El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter. However, the future changes in the impact of the NTA on ENSO remain controversial. Here, we show distinct changes in the strength of the NTA−ENSO relationship due to global warming by comparing models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and CMIP6. The impact of the NTA on ENSO under greenhouse warming is notably enhanced in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. A wetter mean state over the subtropical eastern North Pacific and increased oceanic sensitivity over the equatorial central Pacific are key factors that enhance the impact of the NTA SST on ENSO. Therefore, differences in the mean state under greenhouse warming between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can modulate the strength of the NTA−ENSO relationship. Plain Language Summary: The North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) region can affect the development of El Niño events, significantly impacting global weather systems. Our study compares two generations of climate models, CMIP5 and CMIP6, to understand how the influence of the NTA sea surface temperature (SST) on El Niño might change due to global warming. We found that the influence of the NTA SST on El Niño is stronger in the CMIP6 models than in the CMIP5 models. This stronger impact is due to changes in the climatological background states, including a wetter mean state over the subtropical eastern North Pacific and increased oceanic sensitivity over the equatorial central Pacific. Understanding these changes is crucial for improving predictions of future climate variabilities and their potential impacts on weather, ecosystems, and food production worldwide. Key Points: The relationship between the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly enhanced by global warming in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5Mean state change under greenhouse warming is responsible for the strengthening of the NTA‐ENSO relationship [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is ample evidence for ice layers and lenses within glacial firn. The standard model for ice layer formation localizes the refreezing by perching of meltwater on pre‐existing discontinuities. Here we argue that even extreme melting events provide insufficient flux for this mechanism. Using a thermomechanical model we demonstrate a different mechanism of ice layer formation. After a melting event when the drying front catches up with the wetting front and arrests melt percolation, conductive heat loss freezes the remaining melt in place to form an ice layer. This model reproduces the depth of a new ice layer at the Dye‐2 site in Greenland. It provides a deeper insight into the interpretation of firn stratigraphy and past climate variability. It also improves the simulation of firn densification processes, a key source of uncertainty in assessing and attributing ice sheet mass balance based on satellite altimetry and gravimetry data. Plain Language Summary: Firn covers a significant portion of Earth's glaciers and ice sheets. It can store surface meltwater and prevent runoff into the ocean. The widespread presence of ice layers embedded in firn formed by meltwater refreezing may prevent meltwater storage and contribute to sea level rise. However, current models of ice layer formation, originally developed for snow, do not seem to work in firn. This work presents a different mechanism for ice layer formation without invoking pre‐existing ice layers within the firn. Our model shows that the sequencing of ice layers formed by subsequent melting events depends on the overall heat added to the firn. Deeper layers occur in warmer, more porous firn during intense melt events in a warming climate. This insight enhances our understanding of firn layering and can help deduce past climate variations. Our model aids in understanding the density evolution of firn to reduce uncertainties in remote sensing data that determines the ice sheet mass loss and its contribution to global sea‐level rise. Key Points: A new ice layer forms without meltwater perching when freezing localizes after a melt event as heat conduction dominates over advectionDeeper ice layers form in warming climatic conditions whereas denser ice layers form near surface in net‐zero climatic conditionsResults indicate the possibility of deducing past variability in climate from firn stratigraphy and vice versa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigated the triple‐dip La Niña during 2020–2022 by comparing it with the previous (1973–1975 and 1998–2000) La Niña events. We found that the cold sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific was moderate during the study period; however, the accompanying near‐surface easterly wind anomaly was unusually stronger during its lifecycle than during the previous two events. The maintenance of 2020–2022 La Niña appeared to be attributable to the strong zonal SST gradient. The strong zonal SST gradient resulted from the La‐Niña‐associated interannual SST anomaly, which was further enhanced by a warming trend in the western equatorial Pacific (165°E−160°W, 5°S–5°N) and the interdecadal oscillation of the Pacific‐Decadal‐Oscillation‐associated cold SST in the eastern tropical Pacific. The warming trend in the western equatorial Pacific, with a faster warming speed than global warming, also modified the La‐Niña‐associated Pacific–North American teleconnection to shifted eastward. Plain Language Summary: The La Niña during 2020–2022 was the first triple‐dip event in the 21st century. It induced several major disasters worldwide, such as the record flooding in Pakistan caused 30 million people to lose their homes and took the lives of more than 1,000 individuals. However, how this long‐duration La Niña was maintained remained unclear. The physical processes related to the 2020–2022 La Niña were investigated by comparing them with those of the previous 3‐year La Niña events (1973–1975 and 1998–2000). The major distinctive feature of the 2020–2022 La Niña was the moderate negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which was accompanied by an unusually strong near‐surface easterly wind anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific. Our study revealed the maintenance of the triple‐dip La Niña during 2020–2022 was attributable to the strong zonal SST gradient between the western and eastern equatorial Pacific, with the western waters being dominated by a warming trend and the eastern waters being influenced by the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The warming trend in the western equatorial Pacific provided a favorable background for a triple‐dip La Niña event and also modified the La‐Niña‐associated Pacific–North American teleconnection so that it shifted eastward. Key Points: The La‐Niña‐associated cold SST was moderate during 2020–2022, but the accompanying easterly wind anomaly reached an unusual highThe strong easterly was in response to the zonal SST gradient between the warm western tropical Pacific and cold eastern tropical PacificThe western equatorial Pacific SST, with a faster warming speed than global warming, modulated the PNA teleconnection to shift eastward [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to detect long‐term changes in global mean evaporation minus precipitation over the ocean remain ambiguous. Here we define an ad hoc sea surface salinity index to assess the observed and simulated intensification of the freshwater flux pattern over the global ocean and, thus, of the overall water cycle. A recent salinity reconstruction shows a long‐term amplification of the climatological patterns, thereby supporting the popular "fresh gets fresher, salty gets saltier" paradigm. Unlike in a previous study, no systematic underestimation of this amplification is found in the latest generation of global climate models. Yet, the "fresh gets fresher" paradigm is much more robust than its "salty gets saltier" counterpart and the proposed salinity index does not yet provide a strong constraint on the model‐dependent projected intensification of the global water cycle intensification along the 21st century. Plain Language Summary: Recent changes in continental mean precipitation and evaporation remain poorly observed and thus poorly constrained in both atmospheric reanalyzes and global climate models. Here we propose a new index based on global sea surface salinity contrasts as a surrogate of changes in metric of the water cycle intensity. Overall, both observed and simulated indices support the "fresh gets fresher, salty gets saltier" paradigm, widely used to depict the overall intensification of the water cycle. Unlike in a previous study, no systematic underestimation of the observed amplification in salinity patterns is found in the latest generation of global climate models. The "salty gets saltier" response is however less robust than the "fresh gets fresher" and the proposed salinity index is not yet very useful to constrain the future intensity of the global water cycle. Key Points: Both observations and climate models evidence an amplification of the global ocean climatological contrasts in sea surface salinity (SSS)Yet, the "fresh gets fresher" paradigm is more robust than its salty counterpart, which is more sensitive to the ocean domain's definitionGlobal SSS observations do not yet provide a strong constraint on the projected intensification of the global water cycle [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1950s, observations and climate models show an amplification of sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle in response to global warming over most of the global oceans except for the Southern Ocean (SO), however the cause remains poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed observations, ocean reanalysis, and a set of historical and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 archive and found that the weakened SST seasonal cycle over the SO could be mainly attributed to the intensification of summertime westerly winds. Under the historical warming, the intensification of summertime westerly winds over the SO effectively deepens ocean mixed layer and damps surface warming, but this effect is considerably weaker in winter, thus weakening the SST seasonal cycle. This wind‐driven mechanism is further supported by our targeted coupled model experiments with the wind intensification effects being removed. Plain Language Summary: The Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) has experienced a decreased seasonal cycle since the 1950s, in contrast with the overall amplified seasonal cycle in the rest of global oceans. Here we investigated observations and climate model simulations and found that the decrease of SST seasonal cycle was associated with less warming in summer than in winter during the historical period. The suppressed warming in summer is accompanied by a deepened ocean mixed layer due to the intensification of surface westerlies. An enhanced mixed layer depth means the incoming heat flux will be trapped in a deeper mixed layer in summer, causing a cooler summer SST, which then leads to a weaker SST annual cycle. When the wind intensification effect is removed in our model simulations, the decreased SST seasonal cycle in the SO disappears. Key Points: Observations and climate models show a weakening sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle induced by the delayed warming of summer SST over Southern Ocean (SO)The summer mixed layer depth and wind stress show increasing trends during the same period over the SOThe summer wind‐induced mixed layer deepening suppresses SO surface warming and thus weakening the SST seasonal cycle [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the behaviors of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity under the CO2 removal scenario is important for future climate adaptation and policy making. Based on the idealized CO2 ramp‐up (from 284.7 to 1,138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp‐down experiments, our results suggest an asymmetric and irreversible response of TC potential intensity to CO2 reduction. Potential intensity shows an additional enhancement at the same CO2 level during the CO2 ramp‐down relative to the ramp‐up periods (though with regional differences), and does not completely return to the initial value even when CO2 recovers on multi‐decadal to centennial timescale. The enhanced potential intensity is dominated by the increased thermodynamic disequilibrium, which is mainly attributed to the weakened surface winds arising from the El Niño‐like warming pattern and inter‐hemispheric ocean temperature contrast. Our results highlight the potential risks of stronger storms on the socioeconomic development under the negative carbon emissions pathways. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the most destructive natural disasters worldwide. Many studies pointed to the intensification of Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the warming future and thus it is important to limit the amplitude of global warming and mitigate the potential risks of enhanced TCs. This study examines whether TC potential intensity may return to its initial state with the CO2 removal method based on the idealized CO2 forcing experiments, in which CO2 increases from the preindustrial to quadruple level (284.7–1,138.8 ppm) and decreases symmetrically. Our results suggest an asymmetric and irreversible response of TC potential intensity to CO2 removal, with an additional enhancement at the same CO2 level during the CO2 ramp‐down relative to the ramp‐up periods. Moreover, potential intensity does not fully recover to the initial state even when CO2 is restored on multi‐decadal to centennial timescale. The increased potential intensity during the CO2 ramp‐down relative to the ramp‐up periods is dominated by the increased thermodynamic disequilibrium. This is further linked with the uneven sea surface temperature response and the resultant weakened surface wind speed. This study helps understand the response of TC activity under future mitigation pathways and highlights the potential risks of the enhanced storm intensity. Key Points: Asymmetric and irreversible response of tropical cyclone (TC) potential intensity under the symmetric CO2 rising and declining scenarioThe enhancement in TC potential intensity when CO2 recovers is dominated by the increased thermodynamic disequilibriumEl Niño‐like sea surface temperature pattern contributes to the weakened surface winds and thereby increased TC potential intensity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the specific circulation anomalies that have sustained the low Antarctic sea ice state since 2016. Firstly, we find a significant strengthening and southward shift in the Ferrel Cell (FC) during 2016–2022, resulting in a marked increase in southward transport of heat and moisture. Secondly, this enhanced FC is closely associated with a stronger mid‐latitude wave pattern. This pattern is zonally asymmetric and greatly amplifies the poleward advections of heat and moisture, leading to the increased downward longwave radiation, more liquid precipitation and sea ice retreat in specific regions, including the western Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors, Ross and northern Weddell Seas. The mechanism deduced from the short‐term period is further supported by the results of 40 ensemble members of simulations. The southward expansion of the FC and sea ice decline are closely linked to La Niña‐like conditions but may also be driven by anthropogenic global warming. Plain Language Summary: Following the sudden decline in 2016, the Antarctic sea ice extent has persisted at historically low levels. In 2023, it reached unprecedented record lows. However, the specific atmospheric circulation anomalies that have sustained the Antarctic sea ice at low levels are still unknown. It is well‐established that the Ferrel Cell, a mid‐latitude atmospheric meridional circulation, plays a pivotal role in the energy exchange between the high‐ and mid‐latitudes. Our findings indicate that the enhanced Ferrel Cell zonally intensified southward transport of heat and moisture over the sea ice regions, which sustains the overall low Antarctic sea ice state. Additionally, in the horizontal plane, the enhanced mid‐latitude wave pattern is responsible for the regional sea ice retreat over the western Pacific sector, Ross Sea, Indian Ocean sector, and northern Weddell Sea, and is also closely associated with the enhanced Ferrel Cell. The effects of the enhanced Ferrel Cell on Antarctic sea ice decline are further supported by the results of large ensemble simulations. Therefore, this study suggests that concurrent with the southward shifting of the Ferrel Cell, the stronger warm and moist air intrusions, and the increased liquid precipitation, restrict the Antarctic sea ice expansion following its sudden decline. Key Points: Since 2016, the low Antarctic sea ice extent has persisted, consistent with heat and moisture accumulation over the sea ice edgesThe Ferrel Cell was enhanced and shifted southward, leading to the increased southward heat/moisture advection, and liquid precipitationThe effects of the enhanced Ferrel Cell on Antarctic sea ice decline are further supported by the results of large ensemble simulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore wind farms, a rapidly expanding sector within wind energy, are playing a significant role in achieving global carbon neutrality, and this trend is to continue. Here, we utilize ERA5 reanalysis to correct offshore wind speed trends predicted by CMIP6 models. This approach led to enhanced projections for changes in offshore Wind Power Density (WPD) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Throughout the 21st century, global offshore WPD is projected to follow an upward trend across all SSP scenarios. Notably, Europe stands out with the most substantial increase in offshore WPD among regions with higher current installations, projected to reach up to 26% under 4°C global warming. Our study uncovers a notable increase of global offshore WPD in a warmer climate, which offers valuable insights for the strategic planning of future global wind energy. Plain Language Summary: Wind energy is key to achieving global carbon neutrality. While onshore wind has been extensively studied, offshore wind energy (OWE) projections have received less attention. Climate models, particularly those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6), have underestimated changes in OWE in past decades. Our study addresses this by using a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis, ERA5, to correct these underestimations in CMIP6 models and project future changes in offshore wind power density (WPD) in a warming world. We discover that global offshore WPD is expected to rise throughout the 21st century. By the end of the century, we project an increase in offshore WPD by 3.8%–18.3% under various emission scenarios. Specifically, with global warming of 4°C (and 2°C), we expect increases of 8.9%–9.2% (and 0.2%–2.2%) compared to that at a 1.5°C warming level. Europe stands out under 4°C global warming, with the largest projected increase in offshore WPD (26%). This significant increase of global offshore WPD in a warmer climate offers valuable information for the strategic planning of future global wind energy. It highlights the growing importance of offshore wind in our energy mix and underscores the need for improved modeling to guide investments and policies. Key Points: CMIP6 models have consistently underestimated trends of offshore wind speeds from 1940 to 2014Independent validation demonstrates the corrected simulations reasonably reproduce observed historical wind speed trendsGlobal offshore wind energy is projected to rise significantly, potentially rising by up to 9% under 4°C global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagnosing the NMME forecasts of DJF 2023/24 for SSTs and 200‐hPa heights initialized at the beginning of November 2023 relative to other ensemble mean NMME DJF forecasts dating back to 1982. The results demonstrate that forecasts of the 200‐hPa height anomalies had a large contribution from warming trends in global SSTs. It is the combination of trends and the expected El Niño teleconnection that results in the forecast height anomalies. Increasingly, for forecasts of geopotential height anomalies during the recent El Niño winters, the amplitude of trends is nearly equal to the signal from El Niño and has implications for the climatological base period selection for seasonal forecasts. Plain Language Summary: Seasonal forecasts are cast as anomalies as users want to know what can be expected beyond the typical seasonal swings of the climate. This necessitates a choice for the climatological base period relative to which forecast anomalies are computed. It, however, poses a challenge under rapid climate change. In this scenario, climate trends become part of the real‐time forecast anomalies, and if the climatological base period is sufficiently different, may even start to dominate. This was the case for the NMME DJF 2023/24 forecast of 200‐hPa heights which was forecast to be a strong El Niño, and yet, forecast for 200‐hPa heights differed from typical El Niño signal. The analysis implies that seasonal forecasts for some variables, consideration of trends is important and reliance on expected signal from El Niño—Southern Oscillation alone may not be sufficient. Key Points: The North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 upper‐level height differ from the expected El Niño signalIt is the combination of trends in heights and the expected El Niño signal that results in the forecast NMME ensemble mean heights anomaliesThe forecast of trends is increasingly important to account for NMME forecast anomaly and their amplitude in recent years can be of same magnitude as the signal from El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface anticyclones connected to the ridge of an upper‐tropospheric Rossby wave are the main dynamical drivers of mid‐latitude summer heatwaves. It is, however, unclear to what extent an anomalously low zonal phase speed of the wave in the upper troposphere is necessary for persistent temperature extremes at the surface. Here, we use spectral decomposition to separate fast and slow synoptic‐scale waves. A composite analysis of ERA5 reanalysis data reveals that, while in some regions heatwaves become more frequent during episodes of weak or no phase propagation, temperature extremes in other regions are commonly associated with more rapidly eastward propagating Rossby waves. Reflected in the mean heatwave duration as well, this relationship is possibly linked to a longitudinal phase preference of slow and fast waves or a meridional storm track shift. These findings open up new questions about the influence of mid‐latitude dynamics on temperature extremes. Plain Language Summary: High pressure systems tend to be associated with mid‐latitude summer heatwaves, defined as multiple consecutive hot days. The persistence of heatwaves raises the question whether the associated high pressure system has to be anomalously persistent as well to cause a heatwave. Using a combination of observational data and atmospheric model output that is commonly regarded as ground truth for prediction purposes we find that this is not the case. By re‐distributing the location of on‐average high air pressure, some regions experience an increased heatwave frequency even if the atmospheric circulation is less persistent than usual. Understanding the link between persistent surface temperature extremes and the atmospheric circulation is important for the prediction and projection of extreme events in a warming climate. Key Points: Phase speed of synoptic‐scale waves is crucial for where, but less important for whether heatwaves occurA longitudinal phase preference of slow and fast waves is reflected in the mean heatwave durationChanges in phase speed are linked to a meridional storm track shift [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate detection and attribution of past climate change are crucial for projecting future climate change and formulating proper policies. In this study, we show that the warming of the tropical Indian Ocean contributes to the observed wetting trend in the Tibetan plateau. The warming tropical Indian Ocean can lead to more precipitation around the Arabian Sea. The associated diabatic heating triggers the cyclonic atmospheric response in the lower troposphere over the Arabian Sea and eastern Africa. It also causes the enhancement and westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high. The in‐between airflow transports more moisture northward to the plateau, leading to the increased precipitation over the plateau. These large‐scale circulation patterns can be detected from the long‐term trends based on the observations and the large‐ensemble historical simulations. They can also be simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model forced by the observed warming merely in the tropical Indian Ocean. Plain Language Summary: The Tibetan plateau, often referred to the "Asian water tower," is the source region of many major rivers in Asia. It has experienced an increasing precipitation trend over the past few decades. In this study, we show that the warming tropical Indian Ocean contributes to this wetting trend. The warming tropical Indian Ocean can cause more precipitation around the Arabian Sea. The associated diabatic heating not only triggers an anomalous cyclone in the lower troposphere around the Arabian Sea and eastern Africa, but also causes the enhancement and westward extension of western North Pacific subtropical high. Consequently, the northward airflow between them transports more moisture to the plateau and causes more precipitation there. Our findings underscore the significant role of the warming tropical Indian Ocean in shaping the changing climate under global warming. Further research efforts are warranted to deepen our understanding of this phenomenon. Key Points: The warming tropical Indian Ocean increases the precipitation over the Arabian SeaThe associated large‐scale circulation anomalies transport more moisture northward to the plateauConsequently, more moisture converges over the plateau, leading to the increased precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both historical observations and recent modeling studies reveal a faster warming in the Arctic compared to the Antarctic. To understand the role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) in this warming asymmetry, we simulate the climate mean state and climate response to doubled CO2 under different climate mean ACC states by closing or opening the Drake Passage (DP) with the Community Earth System Model. From closed to open DP, a stronger climate mean ACC leads to a stronger climate mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as well as a colder Antarctic but a warmer Arctic in the climate mean state. The less climate mean sea ice coverage in a warmer Arctic implies less extensive sea ice melting under global warming. This causes a reduced asymmetry in warming between the two poles in response to the doubled CO2. Plain Language Summary: To understand the role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) in the asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic warming, we conduct two numerical model experiments. We consider two different climate states by closing or opening the Drake Passage (DP). The former yields a weak ACC, while the latter results in a strong ACC. A stronger climate mean ACC leads to a colder Antarctic but a warmer Arctic, due primarily to a concurrent stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The diminished coverage of sea ice in the warmer Arctic signifies a reduction in sea ice melting under global warming. Consequently, this leads to a reduction in the asymmetry in warming between the two poles in response to doubled CO2. These findings highlight a significant impact of the ACC on the global climate mean state and polar warming asymmetry, and shed light on the uncertainties in the coordinated interaction between major ocean circulation systems (e.g., AMOC and ACC) and on those in inter‐hemisphere interactions. Key Points: A stronger climate mean Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) is accompanied by a stronger mean Atlantic Meridional Oceanic Circulation (AMOC)A stronger climate mean AMOC results in a warmer Arctic with less climate mean sea ice coverageThe less asymmetric polar warming in the presence of stronger climate mean ACC and AMOC is largely due to less sea ice melting in Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the crucial role of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies in modulating modern and past climate evolution, little is known about their behavior and possible forcing mechanisms during the early Cenozoic. We probe changes in the hydroclimate of southwest Australia during 62–51 Ma, based on sedimentary proxy records from the International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1514 in the Mentelle Basin. Our results reveal a transition from a less humid climate to wetter conditions at mid–high latitudes starting from the early Eocene, which suggests poleward migration of the SH westerlies. This long‐term trend is punctuated by short‐lived events of aridification during the Mid‐Paleocene Biotic Event and wetter intervals during the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum, indicating additional short‐term meridional shifting of the westerlies. We propose that the evolution of SH westerlies was driven by the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient regulated by global warming and ephemeral growth of the Antarctic ice sheet. Plain Language Summary: The Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies, which are the dominant atmospheric circulation patterns in the middle latitudes, play a key role in regulating global and regional climate. Currently, the knowledge of past changes in SH westerlies relies mainly on the late Quaternary. Its dynamics over longer timescales, especially under early Cenozoic greenhouse climate states, remain poorly understood. The Mentelle Basin off southwest Australia was located at a more southerly location than at the present day, and was potentially under the influence of SH westerlies. To examine the long‐term hydroclimate changes in southwest Australia during the mid‐late Paleocene to the early Eocene (62–51 Ma), we measured neodymium and hafnium isotopic compositions of fine‐grained detrital sediments from a borehole (IODP Site U1514) drilled in the Mentelle Basin, in addition to clay mineralogy, and elemental abundances. Our results suggest a gradual wetting of southwest Australia since the early Eocene, which we relate to the poleward migration of SH westerlies in response to a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient. An abrupt northward shift of SH westerlies was observed during the short‐lived Middle Paleocene Biotic Event (∼59 Ma), possibly driven by ephemeral growth of the Antarctica ice sheet. Key Points: We reconstruct the hydroclimate evolution of southwest Australia during 62–51 MaThe Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies remained relatively stable during the mid‐late Paleocene and shifted poleward since the early EoceneProcesses related to variations of pole‐equator temperature gradients drove meridional migration of the SH westerlies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near‐term projections of drought in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are uncertain. The observed decrease in SWUS precipitation since the 1980s and heightened drought conditions since the 2000s have been linked to a cooling sea surface temperature (SST) trend in the Equatorial Pacific. Notably, climate models fail to reproduce these observed SST trends, and they may continue doing so in the future. Here, we assess the sensitivity of SWUS precipitation projections to future SST trends using a Green's function approach. Our findings reveal that a slight redistribution of SST leads to a wetting or drying of the SWUS. A reversal of the observed cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific over the next few decades would lead to a period of wetting in the SWUS. It is critical to consider the impact of possible SST pattern trends on SWUS precipitation trends until we fully trust SST evolution in climate models. Plain Language Summary: Precipitation trends in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are sensitive to the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the Tropical Pacific. Since the turn of the century, a decrease in SWUS precipitation has been linked to a cooling of the Central and Eastern Pacific (1990–2020). Notably, climate models are unable to simulate this observed cooling SST trend. In this study, we answer how SWUS precipitation projections may be impacted by potential error in the simulation of future SST trends by climate models. We first demonstrate that slight changes in the pattern of SST trends leads to either a wetting or drying of the SWUS. Second, if the current 30‐year cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific switches to a warming trend, the SWUS could experience a near‐term increase in precipitation. While climate models are the main tool to predict the global response to anthropogenic climate change, we must consider and account for their error in projections of global warming. Key Points: The observed Equatorial Pacific cooling trend, unpredicted by climate models, may have led to decreased precipitation in the southwestern USWith a sea surface temperature‐precipitation Green's function, we find that small changes in sea surface temperature can either wet or dry the southwestern USA reversal of the cooling trend in the Equatorial Pacific could lead to a wetting trend in the southwestern US [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate Arctic sea‐ice forecasting for the melt season is still a major challenge because of the lack of reliable pan‐Arctic summer sea‐ice thickness (SIT) data. A new summer CryoSat‐2 SIT observation data set based on an artificial intelligence algorithm may alleviate this situation. We assess the impact of this new data set on the initialization of sea‐ice forecasts in the melt seasons of 2015 and 2016 in a coupled sea ice‐ocean model with data assimilation. We find that the assimilation of the summer CryoSat‐2 SIT observations can reduce the summer ice‐edge forecast error. Further, adding SIT observations to an established forecast system with sea‐ice concentration assimilation leads to more realistic short‐term summer ice‐edge forecasts in the Arctic Pacific sector. The long‐term Arctic‐wide SIT prediction is also improved. In spite of remaining uncertainties, summer CryoSat‐2 SIT observations have the potential to improve Arctic sea‐ice forecast on multiple time scales. Plain Language Summary: Arctic sea ice is rapidly declining due to global warming, especially in summer. Accurate sea‐ice forecasting is important to understand the potential influence of these changes and devise effective responses. The performance of sea‐ice forecasts highly depends on the accuracy of the initial sea‐ice states. So refining the initial conditions of sea‐ice forecasts with satellite observations is a common way to reduce forecast errors. However, obtaining reliable summer pan‐Arctic satellite sea‐ice thickness (SIT) data is challenging due to complex ice‐surface conditions in summer. A new artificial‐intelligence‐based summer SIT satellite data product may improve initial SIT states. We integrate this data set into a sea‐ice forecast system to evaluate its impact on forecast skill. We find that the new summer satellite SIT data can reduce short‐term ice‐edge location forecast errors and benefit long‐term SIT forecasts. Key Points: Assimilating summer CryoSat‐2 sea‐ice thickness (SIT) observations makes more skillful Arctic ice‐edge forecasts on multiple time scalesThe long‐term SIT forecasts improve with the assimilation of summer CryoSat‐2 SIT observationsFurther refinement is needed for summer CryoSat‐2 SIT observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme EP El Niño‐dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock‐in into a weak El Niño‐dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system. Plain Language Summary: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability with far‐reaching impacts. El Niños, the warm events, occur in different flavors. In particular extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events are associated with heavy precipitation events and extreme droughts, thus cause large socio‐economic impacts in the Pacific region and beyond. In the observational record, they are quite rare so far. Here we present experiments of one climate model, which suggests that in a warmer climate ENSO may lock‐in in a different state, in which nearly each El Niño is an extreme EP El Niño. On the other hand in a colder climate ENSO may lock‐in in a state with nearly no extreme EP El Niños. In both climates this would have huge consequences for the socio‐economic impacts of ENSO. Against this background we raise the discussion if ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system. Key Points: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may be a tipping element in the climate system as its characteristics can be very different under colder or warmer mean climatesIn a warmer climate, ENSO can lock‐in into a state with high variability and nearly each El Niño is an extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El NiñoMore extreme EP El Niño events would strongly increase the socio‐economic impacts of ENSO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We perform quadrupled CO2 climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) to study how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. We use a hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows directed perpendicular to the wind, and the near-equator frictional flows directed in the same direction as the wind. We show that the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern (EEW) and equatorward ITCZ contraction observed in previous climate simulations emerge when the ocean model includes wind-driven Ekman and frictional flows. Furthermore, the near-equator frictional flow contributes more than half of the heat convergence in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Finally, we show that although Ekman flow and near-equator frictional flow can both result in EEW, their coupled interactions with the Hadley circulation lead to opposite feedbacks on EEW's strength.

Climate change represents a profound threat to the diversity and stability of global climate zones. However, the complex interplay between climate change and elevation in shaping climate heterogeneity is not yet fully understood. Here, we combine Shannon's diversity index (SHDI) with the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification to explore the altitudinal distributions of global climate heterogeneity; and their responses to climate change. The study reveals a distinctive pattern: SHDI, a proxy for climate heterogeneity tends to slow down or decline at lower elevations with increasing temperatures, while at higher elevations, it continues to rise due to continuing cold conditions. Examination of climate simulations, both with and without anthropogenic forcing, confirms that observed changes in climate heterogeneity are primarily attributable to anthropogenic climate change within these high‐elevation regions. This study underscores the importance of high‐elevation regions as not only custodians of diverse climate types but also potential refuges for species fleeing warmer climates. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is threatening the diversity and stability of global climate patterns. But we're still not completely sure how climate change interacts with elevation to affect climate heterogeneity. In this study, we looked at how climate heterogeneity changes with altitude and responds to climate change. We found that as temperatures rise, the climate diversity tends to decrease at lower elevations, but it increases at higher elevations. We used climate simulations to show that these changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. This study shows that high‐elevation regions are important because they can sustain diverse climates and are likely to be a safe haven for plants and animals when climate diversity continues to decline at lower elevations. Key Points: We employed a high‐resolution climate data set to analyze changes in global climate heterogeneityWith increasing temperatures, global climate heterogeneity amplifies at higher elevations, while diminishing at lower altitudesAnthropogenic climate change primarily drives alterations in climate heterogeneity at higher elevations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East China Sea Kuroshio (ECS‐Kuroshio) and the Ryukyu Current are the major poleward heat carriers in the North Pacific. Anomalous changes of ECS‐Kuroshio and Ryukyu Current could exert substantial influence on the climate in mid‐latitude regions. However, owing to limited observations and coarse resolution of climate models, how they might change under anthropogenic warming remains unknown. Here, we find an accelerating ECS‐Kuroshio (1.5 Sv) and a decelerating (−2.2 Sv) Ryukyu Current using in‐situ observation during 1958–2022, equivalent to 7% strengthening and 20% weakening in the 65 years. The trend is also simulated by four high‐resolution climate models, with multi‐model ensemble‐mean acceleration (deceleration) of the ECS‐Kuroshio (Ryukyu Current) of 1.2 ± 0.6 Sv (−6.2 ± 2.5 Sv) over 1950–2050. The weakening subtropical wind field reduces their summed transport o. Enhanced stratification, which induces uplift of current system and weaker topography‐flow interaction, leads to the intensifying ECS‐Kuroshio and disappearing Ryukyu Current. Plain Language Summary: The East China Sea Kuroshio (ECS‐Kuroshio) and the Ryukyu Current are the major components of western boundary current (WBC) system in the North Pacific. They transport large amount of heat poleward, maintaining the mid‐latitude region warm and habitable. In this study, we find that in both observation and high‐resolution numerical models, the ECS‐Kuroshio is intensifying and the Ryukyu Current is rapidly declining. Particularly, in climate models, the Ryukyu Current is predicted to experience a 45% weakening during 1950–2050. Weakening wind field in the North Pacific tends to reduce the total transport of WBC system. The rapid weakening of the Ryukyu Current is credit to the enhanced stratification under global warming, which induces uplift of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan. Hence, less water will be blocked by bottom topography (Ilan Ridge) and bifurcates into the Ryukyu Current. Our finding highlights the needs for comprehensive studies on the local and climate effects of the evolution of the WBC system in the North Pacific. Key Points: The East China Sea Kuroshio is intensifying while the Ryukyu Current is rapidly declining in a warming climateThe change is mainly caused by enhanced stratification which induces uplift of current system and weaker topography‐flow interaction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic projections from the UK Climate Projections 2018 are presented for four global warming levels (GWLs) at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Our results show how uncertainties associated with climate models and four representative concentration pathways (RCP) emission scenarios translate to UK regional scale changes in maximum temperature and precipitation, with data also available for minimum and mean temperatures, humidity and surface net downward shortwave radiation flux. We compare weighting the likelihood of RCPs based on (hypothetical) policy decisions, against our baseline assumption that each RCP is equally likely. Differences between weighted and unweighted GWL distributions are small, particularly in relation to the full breadth of uncertainties that are incorporated into the probabilistic projections. Finally we quantify the relative importance of scenario, model and internal variability on regional projected GWLs and show that uncertainty associated with an uncertain climate response to forcings dominates at all GWLs. Plain Language Summary: Global warming levels define the global averaged increase in temperature since the pre‐industrial period. This study looks at what the regional climate in the UK could be like in the future. We estimate how temperature and precipitation in the UK might change under four different global warming levels (GWLs) (1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C above pre‐industrial times). We account for a wide range of outcomes from both climate models and future emissions scenarios. Assuming that the range of future emissions scenarios are equally likely, the center of the ranges of years that we could reach GWLs of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C are 2032, 2050, 2072, and 2078 respectively. The largest influence of future climate on these range estimates comes from our understanding of how the Earth actually responds to changes in greenhouse gases. Even if we knew the exact quantity of greenhouse gas emissions we would emit in the future, we still wouldn't be able to predict the exact changes in UK climate with perfect accuracy because our understanding of the regional climate response to these emissions requires further investigation. Key Points: Probabilistic climate projections from the UK are presented for four global warming levels (GWLs) across four representative concentration pathways (RCP)We show how uncertainty associated with climate models and future emission scenarios translate to UK regional scale changesUncertainty associated with an uncertain climate response to forcings dominates at all GWLs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land monsoon rainfall has a distinct annual cycle. Under global warming, whether the phase and amplitude of this annual cycle would be changed is still unclear. Here, a global investigation is conducted using 34 CMIP6 and 34 CMIP5 models under a high emission scenario. Seasonal delays would occur in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) American (3.43 days), Northern Hemisphere (NH) African (5.98 days) and SH African (3.76 days) monsoon regions, while no robust signal is found in other monsoon regions. Except NH American monsoon, amplitude is enhanced in all the monsoon regions. Compared to amplitude, the phase changes dominate the future changes of precipitation in the SH American, NH African and SH African monsoon regions. In these phase‐dominated regions, atmospheric energetic framework is proved to be reliable at regional scale and the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity is found to be the dominant factor. Plain Language Summary: Monsoon rainfall sustains nearly two‐thirds of the world's population. The arrival timing and the difference between maximum and minimum of monsoon are the main features of concern. We revealed that rainfall would be delayed over the Amazon, Sahel and South Africa and enhanced in most monsoons except North American monsoon under global warming. In the Amazon, Sahel and South Africa, future changes of the arrival timing can be more remarkable compared to the changes of range. These regional changes can be resulted from physical constraints related to atmospheric energy under global warming, which was previously proposed at larger scale and has been proved to be reliable here at regional monsoons. Key Points: Precipitation would be robustly seasonally delayed over the South American, North African and South African monsoons under global warmingThe phase delays would dominate precipitation annual cycle changes in the above three regions, while amplitude changes dominate the othersThe enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity under warming is key to the seasonal delay of precipitation at the phase‐dominated regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last glacial inception (LGI) marks the transition from the interglacial warm climate to the glacial period with extensive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and colder climate. This transition is initiated by decreasing boreal summer insolation but requires positive feedbacks to stimulate the appearance of perennial snow. We perform simulations of LGI with climate model AWI‐ESM‐2.1, forced by the astronomical and greenhouse gas forcing of 115,000 years before present. To compare with the preindustrial (PI) simulation, we use a consistent definition of the seasons during the LGI and the PI and evaluate model output on an angular astronomical calendar. Our study reveals a prominent role of the sea‐ice albedo feedback to amplify the delayed climate signal at polar latitudes. Through a radiative budget analysis, we examine that the ice‐albedo feedback exceeds the shortwave radiative forcing, contributing to the cooling and high latitude snow built‐up during LGI. Plain Language Summary: The onset of the last ice age marks the transition from the interglacial warm climate to the ice age with extensive Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets and colder climate. This transition is initiated by decreasing boreal summer irradiance and reinforced by positive feedbacks. We perform climate simulations under the astronomical and greenhouse gas forcing, and use a consistent definition of seasons. Our study shows that a delayed ice‐albedo feedback plays an important role in generating a cold NH climate. Key Points: Climate simulations reveal year‐round cooling in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes during the last glacial inceptionA refined angular calendar provides a tool to analyze the seasonal dynamicsWe identify the crucial role of the albedo feedback on the high‐latitude radiative budget [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface, aircraft, and satellite measurements indicate pervasive early cold season (Augut–September) CO2 emissions across Arctic regions, consistent with increased ecosystem metabolism in plants and soils. A key remaining question is whether cold season sources will become large enough to permanently shift the Arctic into a net carbon source. Polar orbiting GHG satellites provide robust estimation of regional carbon budgets but lack sufficient spatial coverage and repeat frequency to track sink‐to‐source transitions in the early cold season. Mission concepts such as the Arctic Observing Mission (AOM) advocate for flying imaging spectrometers in highly elliptical orbits (HEO) over the Arctic to address sampling limitations. We perform retrieval and flux inversion simulation experiments using the AURORA mission concept, leveraging a Panchromatic imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (PanFTS) in HEO. Our simulations demonstrate the potential benefits of increased CO2 sampling for detecting emissions during the early cold season. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming rapidly, leading to an acceleration of carbon exchange across tundra and boreal ecosystems. These changing flows of carbon can be difficult to detect using traditional observing systems. We propose that measurement systems which observe Arctic ecosystems continuously from a quasi‐GEO orbit can more accurately detect these important changes, such that unexpected and dangerous feedbacks to climate warming can be monitored and accounted for. Key Points: The Arctic Fourier Transform Spectrometer Investigation (AURORA) mission concept addresses GHG sampling limitations in the ArcticAURORA uses a highly elliptical orbit (HEO) to increase repeat frequency, and a panchromatic iFTS for SWIR O2 and CO2 bands (0.7–2.5 μm)Simulation experiments show potential benefits of increased sampling frequency for grid scale detection of early cold season CO2 emissions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mesoscale dynamics of a record‐breaking Atmospheric River (AR) that impacted the Middle East in mid‐April 2023 and caused property damage and loss of life are investigated using model, reanalysis and observational data. The high‐resolution (2.5 km) simulations revealed the presence of AR rapids, narrow and long convective structures embedded within the AR that generated heavy precipitation (>4 mm hr−1) as they moved at high speeds (>30 m s−1) from northeastern Africa into western Iran. Gravity waves triggered by the complex terrain in Saudi Arabia further intensified their effects. Given the rising frequency of ARs in this region, AR rapids may be even more impactful in a warming climate, and need to be accounted for in reanalysis and numerical models. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow and long bands of high water vapor content, which largely originate in the tropics or subtropics and propagate into mid‐ and high‐latitudes. They can bring beneficial rain and snow but, in particular the most intense, can lead to catastrophic flooding and loss of life. One of such occurrences in the Middle East in mid‐April 2023 is investigated using model and observational data. The high‐resolution (2.5 km) simulation put in evidence narrow (5–15 km) and long (100–200 km) convective structures within the AR, known as AR rapids, which produced heavy precipitation (>4 mm hr−1), further enhanced by gravity waves that developed over the high terrain in western Saudi Arabia, and propagated at high speeds (>30 m s−1). ARs are occurring more frequently in the Middle East as they are globally, and with increased atmospheric water vapor in a warming climate, AR rapids may be even more destructive. Key Points: The exceptional and impactful Atmospheric River of mid‐April 2023 in the Middle East is investigated with model and observational dataA 2.5 km simulation reveals the presence of "Atmospheric River rapids," narrow along‐flow structures that generated rain rates >4 mm hr−1Model simulations and ground‐based observations underlined the effects of the Atmospheric River and associated trailing cold front [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strengthening aquatic resilience to prevent adverse shifts is critical for preserving global freshwater biodiversity and advancing Sustainable Development Goals. Nonetheless, understanding the long‐term trends and underlying causes of lake ecosystem resilience at a global scale remains elusive. Here, we employ an innovative framework, integrating satellite‐derived water quality indices with early warning signals and machine learning techniques, to investigate the dynamics of resilience in 1,049 lakes worldwide during 2000–2018. Our results indicate that 46.7% of lakes are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, particularly since the early 2010s, closely associated with higher human population density and anthropogenic eutrophication. In contrast, most lakes situated in alpine regions exhibit an increase in resilience, probably benefiting from climate warming and wetting. Together, this study provides a novel way to monitor lake resilience and predict undesired transitions, and reveals a widespread erosion in the ability of lakes to withstand stressors associated with global change. Plain Language Summary: Based on water quality data from satellite observation and generic indicators of ecological resilience, we found 46.7% of lakes worldwide are experiencing a significant decline in the ability to resist and recover from environmental disturbances. This issue is exacerbated in Northern Europe and Eastern North America, closely related to local human impacts, such as anthropogenic eutrophication. As the regional wealth grows, like in central North America, the negative impact of human activity on aquatic ecosystems may decrease. In contrast, in regions like the Tibetan Plateau and Andes Mountains, lakes are actually showing an increase in resilience, indicating that ecosystems may adapt to or even benefit from climate change. Our analysis' global scope allows us to better understand lake ecosystem dynamics and the socioeconomic drivers associated with them. This knowledge will help manage lakes' response to global change. Key Points: Over the last two decades (2000–2018), nearly half of global lakes experienced resilience lossLake resilience decline is closely linked to human activities in the catchmentsSatellite data effectively track early warning signals of lake resilience loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) can severely impact natural and socioeconomic systems. However, our understanding of CWPE future changes, drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, by analyzing the event both on oceans and landmasses via state‐of‐the‐art climate model simulations, we reveal a poleward shift of CWPE occurrences by the late 21st century, with notable increases at latitudes exceeding 50° in both hemispheres and decreases in the subtropics around 25°. CWPE intensification occurs across approximately 90% of global landmasses, and is most pronounced under a high‐emission scenario. Most changes in CWPE frequency and intensity (about 70% and 80%, respectively) stem from changes in precipitation extremes. We further identify large uncertainties in CWPE changes, which can be understood at the regional level by considering climate model differences in trends of CWPE drivers. These results provide insights into understanding CWPE changes under a warmer climate, aiding robust regional adaptation strategy development. Plain Language Summary: Concurrent wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs), a typical case of compound weather events, can cause flooding and strong winds that can paralyze public transportation, trigger power outages, and destroy houses and shelters. Furthermore, CWPE over the ocean can endanger the shipment of goods and its logistics. Yet, our understanding of the projected changes, underlying drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, analyzing for the first time CWPEs both on global oceans and landmasses allows us to reveal a poleward shift of CWPEs at the global scale in response to climate change. We show that changes in precipitation extremes play a dominant role in determining the future changes in the frequency and intensity of CWPEs. Furthermore, at the regional level, we reveal substantial uncertainties in projections due to differences between the used climate models. We illustrate that these uncertainties are due to model differences in trends of CWPE drivers and argue that they should be addressed explicitly in impact assessments for guiding the development of robust adaptation strategies. Key Points: An intensification and poleward shift of compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) will occur in a warmer climateMost changes in frequency and intensity of CWPEs stem from changes in precipitation extremesSubstantial uncertainties at the regional level in projections of CWPEs are due to structural model differences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Vietnam upwelling is a crucial circulation feature in the South China Sea. Although previous studies have shown that various coastal upwellings around the world may intensify under global warming, future changes in the Vietnam upwelling remain unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed the long‐term trend in the Vietnam upwelling under a high‐emission scenario for the period 2006–2100, using simulation results from a global eddy‐resolving climate model. In this model, the summertime Vietnam upwelling is projected to intensify in the 21st century and is statistically significant between 12°N and 14°N. A volume flux budget analysis indicates that wind stress curl is the most important contributor to the intensification. The geostrophic flow, to some extent, may suppress the upwelling intensification. The projected increase in upwelling is shown to significantly reduce local ocean warming and freshening and thus may have vital impacts on the local climate and circulation. Plain Language Summary: The South China Sea is characterized by an intense upwelling to the east of the Vietnam coast. Prior studies have reported that global warming can significantly affect the global wind stress. Since the Vietnam upwelling is mainly caused by the prevailing southwesterly monsoon, a question arises naturally: whether this upwelling will intensify under the global warming. Using a global climate model with a horizontal resolution of ∼0.1°, we found that the summertime Vietnam upwelling was projected to increase by ∼1 m/day from the first 30 years to the last 30 years in the 21st century. The increase mainly results from an increase in the wind stress curl. The geostrophic flow can suppress the increase in upwelling; this finding is consistent with some prior studies. Moreover, this study showed that intensified upwelling can significantly reduce the increase in the local seawater temperature and the decrease in the local seawater salinity. Key Points: The Vietnam upwelling is projected to increase under a high‐emission scenarioThe wind stress curl dominates the long‐term change in the Vietnam upwellingIncreased upwelling may significantly affect local ocean warming and freshening [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns. Plain Language Summary: When comparing model simulations of Earth's recent warming to real‐world observations, differences may arise from several factors. Two important factors are the model errors in the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, and natural fluctuations within the climate system that produced discrepancies between observations and models. Thus, quantifying the role of these natural fluctuations is important for the assessment of model‐observation differences. Previous studies have shown that natural climate variability has depressed global warming and enhanced Arctic warming. By compositing the multi‐decadal trend patterns from CMIP6 simulations in which natural variability warms the Arctic but has a global cooling effect, we find that the majority of these model simulations also produce enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Seas and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean due to natural variability. Since these are the exact features imprinted on observed surface temperature changes over 1980–2022, our work suggests that natural variability is an important component of several noteworthy differences between models and observations. Key Points: Internal variability has enhanced Arctic warming but suppressed global warming over 1980–2022This manifestation of internal variability is rare in model simulations but has a robust global surface air temperature (SAT) trend patternThis internal SAT pattern features warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling of the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of changes in global temperatures and precipitation on climate distribution remains unclear. Taking the annual global average temperatures and precipitation as the origin, this study determined the climate distribution with the distances of temperature and precipitation from their global averages as the X and Y axes. The results showed that during 1980–2019, the global temperature distribution converged toward the mean (convergence), while the precipitation distribution moved away from the mean (divergence). The combined effects of both led to a convergence in the global climate distribution. During 2025–2100, significant climate convergence is observed under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). However, the climate convergence and the area of change in climate type remains insignificant only under SSP126, suggesting that the diversity of the global climate pattern can be maintained under a sustainable emission pathway (SSP126), whereas high emission pathways will lead to greater uniformity in global climate. Plain Language Summary: Global average temperatures and precipitation have increased significantly over recent decades. However, the distribution of affected areas remains unclear in comparison to the global mean. Taking annual temperature and precipitation averages as a reference point, this study measured temperature and precipitation anomalies from the global mean on the X and Y axes. The Euclidean distance of each grid cell represents its deviation (anomaly) from the global climate mean. These distances are termed the degree of deviation of temperature, precipitation, and climate from the global mean for each raster. The results reveal a discernible homogenization trend regarding the distribution of global climate. Among three distinct climate scenarios, climate diversity is effectively preserved under the low‐emission model (SSP126), whereas global climate distribution exhibits a substantial convergence toward the annual mean under the high‐emission models (SSP245 and SSP585). Key Points: Against the backdrop of global warming, the climate pattern is shifting toward convergenceTemperature is the primary driver behind climate convergence, while precipitation plays a central role in climate diversityLow‐level emissions are conducive to preserving the diversity of future global climate distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amplification of sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality in response to global warming is a robust feature in climate model projections but season‐dependent regional disparities in this amplification and the associated mechanisms are not well addressed. Here, by analyzing large ensemble simulations using Community Earth System Model version 2, we investigate detailed spatiotemporal characteristics of the amplification of SST seasonality focusing on the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where robust changes are projected to emerge around 2050 under SSP3‐7.0 scenario. Our results indicate that atmosphere‐ocean coupled processes shape regional changes in SST seasonality differently between warm (MAMJJAS) and cold seasons (ONDJF). During the warm season, the projected warming tendency is mainly due to increased net surface heat flux and weakening of vertical mixing. On the other hand, in the cold season, the projected cooling tendency is driven by strengthened vertical mixing over the North Pacific associated with the northward shift of storm tracks but weakened horizontal advection and mixing due to changes in ocean currents over the North Atlantic. Plain Language Summary: In addition to the increase in annual mean sea surface temperature (SST), the amplitude of SST seasonal cycle is projected to intensify in response to greenhouse warming over many parts of the global ocean due to more warming during local summer than winter. By analyzing large ensemble simulations, we show how different atmospheric and ocean processes influence spatiotemporal differences in SST seasonality changes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Our findings indicate that during local summer, the projected warming tendency intensifies with the increased heat input into the ocean and weakening of ocean mixing. Meanwhile, during local winter, the projected cooling tendency intensifies with the strengthening of vertical mixing associated with the enhanced storm track activities in the North Pacific, but the weakening of ocean horizontal advection and mixing attributable to the weakened ocean circulation over the North Atlantic. They together contribute to the amplification of SST seasonality, which could have implications for marine ecosystems, including the plankton phenology. Key Points: Using CESM2 large ensemble simulations, this study explores the robustness of future sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality changes and the associated atmospheric and surface ocean processesIn the warm season, the future SST warming is mainly driven by the reduced upper ocean mixing and the increased net surface heat influx into the oceanIn the cold season, the future SST cooling is attributable to strengthened vertical mixing over the North Pacific but weakened horizontal advection and mixing in the North Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of internal variability in generating an apparent link between autumn Barents‐Kara sea (BKS) ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been intensely debated. In particular, the robustness and causality of the link has been questioned by showing that BKS‐NAO correlations exhibit nonstationarity in both reanalysis and climate model simulations. We show that the lack of ice observations means nonstationarity cannot be confidently assessed using reanalysis prior to 1961. Model simulations are used to corroborate an argument that forced nonstationarity could result from ice edge changes due to global warming. Consequently, the observed change in BKS‐NAO correlations since 1960 might not be purely a result of internal variability and may also reflect that the ice edge has moved. The change could also reflect the availability of more accurate ice observations. We discuss potential implications for analysis based on coupled climate models, which exhibit large ice edge biases. Plain Language Summary: Does the amount of ice in the Barents‐Kara Sea influence European air pressure or are the patterns we see caused by random changes in the weather? In climate models and in estimates of the atmosphere's history these patterns change depending on which years we look at. This has been interpreted as evidence that the patterns are random. However, there are very few measurements of ice in this region before 1961, so we argue that looking at these years is not helpful. Since 1961, where we have more measurements, the winter sea ice edge has been moving Northwards because of global warming. When the ice in a particular region disappears, it changes the expected relationship with the atmosphere because heat can now quickly leave the ocean. We therefore hypothesize that some of the changes seen in the patterns may therefore not be random, but a result of ice edge changes. We also observe that different climate models put the ice edge in different places, and the same hypothesis therefore implies that models might not get potential ice‐air pressure relationships in specific regions correct. Key Points: A lack of observations means that ice‐NAO links cannot be confidently assessed with reanalysis prior to 1961Nonstationarity since 1961 may reflect forced changes to the ice edge, due to the dependence of heatflux anomalies on ice edge variabilityThe magnitude of this potential forced nonstationarity in the real world is currently unclear [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic sea ice cover has decreased rapidly over the last few decades both in extent and thickness. Here we present multi‐year (2013–2022) observations of sea ice thickness in the northwestern Barents Sea based on Upward Looking Sonar measurements and show that the winter sea ice has become thicker over the last decade. Sea ice thickness from the Pan‐Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reproduces both the observed variability and recent 10‐year trend and shows that this thickening (0.24 m decade−1) has not been seen since the 1990s. Using PIOMAS we find that the recent increase in sea ice thickness can be explained by increased sea ice freezing as a result of lower temperatures in the ocean and in the atmosphere. The recent thickening is set in the context of a long‐term thinning trend, with PIOMAS showing much thinner ice now than in the 1980s. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic sea ice cover is becoming smaller and thinner due to global warming. We have measured sea ice thickness in the Barents Sea since 2013, and find that the ice thickness has increased since the measurements were initiated, contrary to what we would expect in a warming world. The Arctic sea ice cover can, however, increase for periods typically up to a decade due to natural climate variability. We find that increased sea ice formation due to lower ocean and air temperatures has caused the recent thickening of the ice cover. We also find that the Barents Sea ice thickness has decreased since the 1980s, and despite the recent thickening, the ice cover is much thinner now than it used to be. Key Points: Upward Looking Sonar measurements in the Barents Sea show increased sea ice thickness during the last decadeIn an ice‐ocean reanalysis (PIOMAS) the recent thickening is due to increased ice freezing, associated with lower ocean and air temperaturesThe long‐term thickness trend is negative, meaning that despite recent thickening, ice is now much thinner than in the 1980s [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have suggested that global ocean circulation would be significantly changed under global warming, while the change of North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) and its mechanisms are still unclear. Here, we investigate the location and intensity changes of NECC under global warming based on CESM1 high‐resolution long‐term simulations from the perspective of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), considering the close connection between NECC and ITCZ and well‐established changes of ITCZ. It is found that the annual‐mean NECC shifts equatorward of 0.39° and weakens by 21.71% in the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of 21st century. The NECC change is seasonally dependent, with maximum shift and weakening during spring, consistent with the changes of ITCZ. Both the location and intensity changes of ITCZ are important in the NECC changes, especially for spring. The weakening and equatorward shift of ITCZ contributes almost equally to the strongest decrease of spring NECC (47.63%). Plain Language Summary: Global ocean circulation is suggested to exhibit significant changes under global warming, but whether and why the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) would change is still unclear. It is well known that the NECC and Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are closely coupled through air‐sea interaction. Under global warming, previous studies found that the ITCZ would move closer to the equator with maximum shift in spring and the annual‐mean NECC would be weakened in response to the enhanced equatorial warming. Hence, it is important to investigate whether the NECC would change following the ITCZ change. Here, based on long‐term simulations from a high‐resolution climate model, it is found that the NECC will indeed move closer to the equator under global warming following the equatorward shift of ITCZ. The NECC also gets weakened under global warming following the weakened ITCZ convergence, although the ITCZ precipitation gets stronger due to more moisture under warming. In spring, the largest equatorward shift of ITCZ has a comparable contribution to the largest decrease of NECC. Key Points: The North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) would be southward shift and weakened under global warmingThe future changes of NECC are seasonally dependent, with maximum southward shift and weakening in springThe NECC changes are closely related to the location and intensity changes of Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone, especially in spring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]