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Objectives: In view of the low accuracy of flow forecast in tidal reach due to the combined influence of runoff and tide, combining the ability of variational mode decomposition (VMD) to process non-stationary signals and the advantages of back propagation (BP) neural network to deal with nonlinear problems, this paper proposes a new method for discharge prediction in tidal reach based on the combination model of tidal current harmonic analysis and VMD-BP neural network. Methods: First, the harmonic analysis method is used to separate the tidal discharge and residual discharge from the original discharge. Second, a BP neural network is constructed based on error backpropagation algorithm. Then, the BP neural network is used to simulate and train the power flow data and residual current data processed by VMD. Finally, the output tidal discharge and residual discharge components are superimposed and reconstructed to obtain the final discharge prediction results. Results: Experiments performed at the Xuliujing section of the Yangtze Estuary show that the discharge prediction accuracy of BP neural network method is better than that of traditional harmonic analysis method, with the root mean square error (RMSE) is decreased by about 3 400 m³ /s, and the relative standard accuracy (RSD) is increased by about 6%. In addition, compared with the traditional method, RMSE of the proposed method in this paper is decreased by about 5 000 m³ /s, and the RSD is increased by about 9%. Conclusions: The combined model based on harmonic analysis and VMD-BP neural network can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of discharge in tidal reach. At the same time, it also provides a new idea for the discharge prediction in the waters with variable flow conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The position time series of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) contain rich tectonic and non-tectonic deformation information, and the complex components are difficult to accurately model and effectively separate non-tectonic information. It is very important to remove the non-tectonic de‐ formation information for the accurate and effective application of the observation data. Methods: Empirical mode decomposition （EMD） is an adaptive time-frequency processing method to correct the period term of time series at 24 GNSS continuous stations and 2 mobile stations in Sichuan Province and Yunnan Province. Results: The results show that the correction of the period term is necessary, and the EMD method can ex‐ tract the different frequency and amplitude period components adaptively according to its own characteristics of signal at each station. Compared with the original time series, the average root mean square error after correction is reduced significantly in N, E and U directions. And EMD method is more accurate and effective than harmonic model modification. We use the modified continuous station time series to simulate the mobile observations, and find that relatively reliable motion velocities can be obtained after an observation period of 5 ‐6 years. The stability and reliability of EMD method are verified by correcting the period term of the mobile station with the actual continuous observation station at a close distance. Conclusions: This paper provides a reference and theoretical basis for the implementation of mobile GNSS observation and the correction of observation data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]