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Quantifying the frequency at which volcanic eruptions of different size occurs is impor- tant for hazard assessment. Volcanic records can be used to estimate the recurrence rate of large-magnitude eruptions (magnitude ≥4), but recording biases that impact data complete- ness complicate analysis. To overcome these biases, we conceptualize the volcanic record as a series of individual and unique time series associated by a common behavior. Thus, we approach issues of completeness on a volcano-by-volcano basis and use a hierarchical Bayes- ian approach to characterize the common frequency-magnitude (f-M) behavior for different groups of volcanoes. We identify variations in the f-M relationship between different volcano types and between different volcanic arcs. By accounting for systematic under-recording in the volcanic record, we also calculate the global recurrence rates for large-magnitude erup- tions during the Holocene, which are similar to previous estimates. However, higher recur- rence rates for smaller-magnitude events are observed, which is a result of our adjustments for data completeness. Quantifying how the f-M relationship varies between different groups of volcanoes provides an opportunity to understand how the tectonic setting in uences f-M behavior, which is important to quantify long-term regional volcanic hazard.

The geological record contains evidence of volcanic eruptions that were as much as two orders of magnitude larger than the most voluminous eruption experienced by modern civilizations, the A.D. 1815 Tambora (Indonesia) eruption. Perhaps nowhere on Earth are deposits of such supereruptions more prominent than in the Snake River Plain–Yellowstone Plateau (SRP-YP) volcanic province (northwest United States). While magmatic activity at Yellowstone is still ongoing, the Heise volcanic field in eastern Idaho represents the youngest complete caldera cycle in the SRP-YP, and thus is particularly instructive for current and future volcanic activity at Yellowstone. The Heise caldera cycle culminated 4.5 Ma ago in the eruption of the ∼1800 km3 Kilgore Tuff. Accessory zircons in the Kilgore Tuff display significant intercrystalline and intracrystalline oxygen isotopic heterogeneity, and the vast majority are 18O depleted. This suggests that zircons crystallized from isotopically distinct magma batches that were generated by remelting of subcaldera silicic rocks previously altered by low-δ18O meteoric-hydrothermal fluids. Prior to eruption these magma batches were assembled and homogenized into a single voluminous reservoir. U-Pb geochronology of isotopically diverse zircons using chemical abrasion–isotope dilution–thermal ionization mass spectrometry yielded indistinguishable crystallization ages with a weighted mean 206Pb/238U date of 4.4876 ± 0.0023 Ma (MSWD = 1.5; n = 24). These zircon crystallization ages are also indistinguishable from the sanidine 40Ar/39Ar dates, and thus zircons crystallized close to eruption. This requires that shallow crustal melting, assembly of isolated batches into a supervolcanic magma reservoir, homogenization, and eruption occurred extremely rapidly, within the resolution of our geochronology (103–104 yr). The crystal-scale image of the reservoir configuration, with several isolated magma batches, is very similar to the reservoir configurations inferred from seismic data at active supervolcanoes. The connection of magma batches vertically distributed over several kilometers in the upper crust would cause a substantial increase of buoyancy overpressure, providing an eruption trigger mechanism that is the direct consequence of the reservoir assembly process.

Magmas may fl ow or break depending on their deformation rate. The transition between such viscous and brittle behavior controls the style of volcanic eruptions. While the brittle failure of silicate melts is reasonably well characterized, the effect of crystals on the viscous-brittle transition has not yet been constrained. Here we examine the effect of suspended crystals on the mechanical failure of magmas using torsion experiments performed at temperatures (600‐ 900 °C), strain rates (10 ‐4 ‐10 ‐1 s ‐1 ), and confi ning pressures (200‐300 MPa) relevant for volcanic systems. We present a relationship that predicts the critical stress and associated strain rate at which magmas fail as a function of crystal fraction. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the viscous to brittle transition occurs at lower stresses and strain rates when crystals are present. The fractures formed during brittle failure of crystal-bearing magma originate in the melt phase, which enables gas to escape, and hence to reduce gas overpressure. These degassing pathways heal on relatively short time scales owing to the high confi ning pressure at depth, highlighting the possibility that coherent lavas may actually be the healed remains of partially degassed magma parcels that have undergone many cycles of fracturing and healing.