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We quantify anthropogenic sources of health burdens associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Korea and forecast future health burdens using domestic emission control scenarios by 2050 provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Our health burden estimation framework uses GEOS‐Chem simulations, satellite‐derived NO2, and ground‐based observations of PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We estimate 19,000, 3,300, and 8,500 premature deaths owing to long‐term exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively, and 23,000 NO2‐associated childhood asthma incidences in 2016. Next, we calculate anthropogenic emission contributions to these four health burdens from each species and grid cell using adjoint sensitivity analysis. Domestic sources account for 56%, 38%, 87%, and 88% of marginal emission contributions to the PM2.5‐, O3‐, and NO2‐associated premature deaths and the NO2‐associated childhood asthma incidences, respectively. We project health burdens to 2050 using UNEP domestic emission scenarios (Baseline and Mitigation) and population forecasts from Statistics Korea. Because of population aging alone, there are 41,000, 10,000, and 20,000 more premature deaths associated with PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposure, respectively, and 9,000 fewer childhood asthma incidences associated with NO2. The Mitigation scenario doubles the NO2‐associated health benefits over the Baseline scenario, preventing 24,000 premature deaths and 13,000 childhood asthma incidences by 2050. It also slightly reduces PM2.5‐ and O3‐associated premature deaths by 9.9% and 7.0%, unlike the Baseline scenario where these pollutants increase. Furthermore, we examine foreign emission impacts from nine SSP/RCP‐based scenarios, highlighting the need for international cooperation to reduce PM2.5 and O3 pollution. Plain Language Summary: This study examines the impact of anthropogenic air pollution on human health in South Korea. For the year 2016, air pollution is associated with various health burdens, including premature deaths and childhood asthma incidences. Using advanced air quality model simulations and data analysis, we assess the contribution of local emissions to these problems, finding a significant portion attributable to domestic sources. Looking to the year 2050, we apply United Nations Environment Programme emission scenarios to forecast future health impacts. Without further emission reductions, premature deaths associated with major air pollutants are expected to increase. However, adopting additional emission reduction measures could significantly lower both premature deaths and childhood asthma incidences by 2050. The study underscores the importance of international cooperation for reducing air pollution, highlighting the extent to which South Korea's air quality is affected by foreign emissions, and emphasizing the necessity of both local and international actions to enhance air quality and safeguard public health. Key Points: We estimate premature deaths and childhood asthma incidences associated with air pollution exposure in South KoreaWe quantify responses of each health burden to anthropogenic emission changes using adjoint sensitivity analysisWe project health burdens to 2050 with assessment of domestic emission control scenarios provided by the United Nations Environment Programme [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a newly developed approach to characterize the sources of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)‐related premature deaths in Europe using the chemical transport model GEOS‐Chem and its adjoint. The contributions of emissions from each individual country, species, and sector are quantified and mapped out at km scale. In 2015, total PM2.5‐related premature death is estimated to be 449,813 (257,846–722,138) in Europe, 59.0% of which were contributed by domestic anthropogenic emissions. The anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides, ammonia, and organic carbon contributed most to the PM2.5‐related health damages, making up 29.6%, 23.2%, and 16.8%, respectively of all domestic anthropogenic contributions. Residential, agricultural, and ground transport emissions are calculated to be the largest three sectoral sources of PM2.5‐related health risks, accounting for 23.5%, 23.0%, and 19.4%, respectively, of total anthropogenic contributions within Europe. After excluding the influence of extra‐regional sources, we find eastern European countries suffered from more premature deaths than their emissions caused; in contrast, the emissions from some central and western European regions contributed premature deaths exceeding three times the number of deaths that occurred locally. During 2005–2015, the first decade of PM2.5 regulation in Europe, emission controls reduced PM2.5‐related health damages in nearly all European countries, resulting in 63,538 (46,092–91,082) fewer PM2.5‐related premature deaths. However, our calculation suggests that efforts to reduce air pollution from key sectors in some countries can be offset by the lag in control of emissions in others. International cooperation is therefore vitally important for tackling air pollution and reducing corresponding detrimental effects on public health. Plain Language Summary: We characterize detailed sources of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)‐attributable health burden in Europe using a newly developed modeling approach. Our calculations show PM2.5 pollution led to 449,813 (257,846–722,138) premature deaths in Europe in 2015, 59.0% of which were related to human activities within Europe. Emissions related to household heating and cooking, farming, and automobiles caused the most premature deaths related to air pollution. People living in eastern European countries experienced even greater harmful air pollution effects than their own emissions caused; they are net importers of the health burden. In contrast, emissions from some central and western European regions caused more premature deaths throughout Europe than were experienced locally. Over the course of a decade of policies regulating PM2.5, pollution‐related health impacts declined in nearly all European countries, although the efforts to reduce air pollution from key sources in some countries was partially offset by a lack of effective emission controls in others. The results not only show where air pollution related health risks came from, they also help us to learn about the limitations of local policies at reducing the pollution health risks, as air pollution is often a regional phenomenon crossing the borders within Europe. Key Points: Residential, agricultural, and ground transport emissions were the largest sources of the PM2.5‐related health burden in EuropeEastern Europe experienced more premature deaths than their own emissions caused, making them net importers of the pollution health burdenEmission reductions, most from transport, energy, and industrial sources, reduced pollution health damages in Europe during 2005–2015 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposure to air pollution is a leading risk factor for premature death globally; however, the complexity of its formation and the diversity of its sources can make it difficult to address. The Group of Twenty (G20) countries are a collection of the world's largest and most influential economies and are uniquely poised to take action to reduce the global health burden associated with air pollution. We present a framework capable of simultaneously identifying regional and sectoral sources of the health impacts associated with two air pollutants, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in G20 countries; this framework is also used to assess the health impacts associated with emission reductions. This approach combines GEOS‐Chem adjoint sensitivities, satellite‐derived data, and a new framework designed to better characterize the non‐linear relationship between O3 exposures and nitrogen oxides emissions. From this approach, we estimate that a 50% reduction of land transportation emissions by 2040 would result in 251 thousand premature deaths avoided in G20 countries. These premature deaths would be attributable equally to reductions in PM2.5 and O3 exposure which make up 51% and 49% of the potential benefits, respectively. In our second application, we estimate that the energy generation related co‐benefits associated with G20 countries staying on pace with their net‐zero carbon dioxide targets would be 290 thousand premature deaths avoided in 2040; action by India (47%) would result in the most benefits of any country and a majority of these avoided deaths would be attributable to reductions in PM2.5 exposure (68%). Plain Language Summary: Exposure to air pollution is responsible for millions of deaths globally; however, the processes involved in its formation are complex which can make it difficult to address. The Group of Twenty (G20) countries are a collection of the world's largest and most influential economies and are uniquely poised to take action to reduce air pollution globally. We present a new method of identifying the regions and emission sectors responsible for pollution‐related health impacts in G20 countries. We extend this method to identify how changes in transportation and power plant emissions could lead to reductions in the health impacts associated with air pollution. Key Points: Fine particulate matter is not always the pollutant most associated with trans‐boundary health impacts; this depends on country and sectorReducing land transportation emissions by 50% would result in 251 thousand premature deaths avoided in Group of Twenty (G20) countries in 2040Around 300 thousand premature deaths could be avoided in G20 countries if energy emissions reduced on pace with net‐zero carbon dioxide target years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We quantify anthropogenic sources of health burdens associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Korea and forecast future health burdens using domestic emission control scenarios by 2050 provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Our health burden estimation framework uses GEOS‐Chem simulations, satellite‐derived NO2, and ground‐based observations of PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We estimate 19,000, 3,300, and 8,500 premature deaths owing to long‐term exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively, and 23,000 NO2‐associated childhood asthma incidences in 2016. Next, we calculate anthropogenic emission contributions to these four health burdens from each species and grid cell using adjoint sensitivity analysis. Domestic sources account for 56%, 38%, 87%, and 88% of marginal emission contributions to the PM2.5‐, O3‐, and NO2‐associated premature deaths and the NO2‐associated childhood asthma incidences, respectively. We project health burdens to 2050 using UNEP domestic emission scenarios (Baseline and Mitigation) and population forecasts from Statistics Korea. Because of population aging alone, there are 41,000, 10,000, and 20,000 more premature deaths associated with PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposure, respectively, and 9,000 fewer childhood asthma incidences associated with NO2. The Mitigation scenario doubles the NO2‐associated health benefits over the Baseline scenario, preventing 24,000 premature deaths and 13,000 childhood asthma incidences by 2050. It also slightly reduces PM2.5‐ and O3‐associated premature deaths by 9.9% and 7.0%, unlike the Baseline scenario where these pollutants increase. Furthermore, we examine foreign emission impacts from nine SSP/RCP‐based scenarios, highlighting the need for international cooperation to reduce PM2.5 and O3 pollution.

Abstract We present a newly developed approach to characterize the sources of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)‐related premature deaths in Europe using the chemical transport model GEOS‐Chem and its adjoint. The contributions of emissions from each individual country, species, and sector are quantified and mapped out at km scale. In 2015, total PM2.5‐related premature death is estimated to be 449,813 (257,846–722,138) in Europe, 59.0% of which were contributed by domestic anthropogenic emissions. The anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides, ammonia, and organic carbon contributed most to the PM2.5‐related health damages, making up 29.6%, 23.2%, and 16.8%, respectively of all domestic anthropogenic contributions. Residential, agricultural, and ground transport emissions are calculated to be the largest three sectoral sources of PM2.5‐related health risks, accounting for 23.5%, 23.0%, and 19.4%, respectively, of total anthropogenic contributions within Europe. After excluding the influence of extra‐regional sources, we find eastern European countries suffered from more premature deaths than their emissions caused; in contrast, the emissions from some central and western European regions contributed premature deaths exceeding three times the number of deaths that occurred locally. During 2005–2015, the first decade of PM2.5 regulation in Europe, emission controls reduced PM2.5‐related health damages in nearly all European countries, resulting in 63,538 (46,092–91,082) fewer PM2.5‐related premature deaths. However, our calculation suggests that efforts to reduce air pollution from key sectors in some countries can be offset by the lag in control of emissions in others. International cooperation is therefore vitally important for tackling air pollution and reducing corresponding detrimental effects on public health.