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Coalescent methods are proven and powerful tools for population genetics, phylogenetics, epidemiology, and other fields. A promising avenue for the analysis of large genomic alignments, which are increasingly common, is coalescent hidden Markov model (coalHMM) methods, but these methods have lacked general usability and flexibility. We introduce a novel method for automatically learning a coalHMM and inferring the posterior distributions of evolutionary parameters using black-box variational inference, with the transition rates between local genealogies derived empirically by simulation. This derivation enables our method to work directly with three or four taxa and through a divide-and-conquer approach with more taxa. Using a simulated data set resembling a human-chimp-gorilla scenario, we show that our method has comparable or better accuracy to previous coalHMM methods. Both species divergence times and population sizes were accurately inferred. The method also infers local genealogies, and we report on their accuracy. Furthermore, we discuss a potential direction for scaling the method to larger data sets through a divide-and-conquer approach. This accuracy means our method is useful now, and by deriving transition rates by simulation, it is flexible enough to enable future implementations of various population models., (© 2021 Liu et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an urgent need to uncover the underlying biology of this devastating disease. Though RNA viruses mutate more rapidly than DNA viruses, there are a relatively small number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that differentiate the main SARS-CoV-2 lineages that have spread throughout the world. In this study, we investigated 129 RNA-seq data sets and 6928 consensus genomes to contrast the intra-host and inter-host diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Our analyses yielded three major observations. First, the mutational profile of SARS-CoV-2 highlights intra-host single nucleotide variant (iSNV) and SNP similarity, albeit with differences in C > U changes. Second, iSNV and SNP patterns in SARS-CoV-2 are more similar to MERS-CoV than SARS-CoV-1. Third, a significant fraction of insertions and deletions contribute to the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Altogether, our findings provide insight into SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity, inform the design of detection tests, and highlight the potential of iSNVs for tracking the transmission of SARS-CoV-2., (© 2021 Sapoval et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.)