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Multilocus surveys of sequence variation can be used to identify targets of directional selection, which are expected to have reduced levels of variation. Following a population bottleneck, the signal of directional selection may be hard to detect because many loci may have low variation by chance and the frequency spectrum of variation may be perturbed in ways that resemble the effects of selection. Cultivated Sorghum bicolor contains a subset of the genetic diversity found in its wild ancestor(s) due to the combined effects of a domestication bottleneck and human selection on traits associated with agriculture. As a framework for distinguishing between the effects of demography and selection, we sequenced 204 loci in a diverse panel of 17 cultivated S. bicolor accessions. Genomewide patterns of diversity depart strongly from equilibrium expectations with regard to the variance of the number of segregating sites, the site frequency spectrum, and haplotype configuration. Furthermore, gene genealogies of most loci with an excess of low frequency variants and/or an excess of segregating sites do not show the characteristic signatures of directional and diversifying selection, respectively. A simple bottleneck model provides an improved but inadequate fit to the data, suggesting the action of other population-level factors, such as population structure and migration. Despite a known history of recent selection, we find little evidence for directional selection, likely due to low statistical power and lack of an appropriate null model.

The ability of microbial populations to increase fitness through fixation of mutants with an increased growth rate has been well described. In experimental studies, this is often the only way fitness can be increased. In natural settings, however, fitness can also be improved by increasing the ability of the microbe to transmit from one host to the next. For many pathogens, transmission includes a phase outside the host during which they need to survive before the chance of reinfecting a new host occurs. In such a situation, a reduced death rate during this phase will lead to improved fitness. Here, we compute the fixation probability of mutants that better survive the transmission bottleneck during the evolution of microbial populations. We derive analytical results that show that transmission mutants are often likely to occur and that their importance relative to growth mutants increases as the population decline during the transmission phase increases. We confirm our theoretical results with numerical simulations and suggest specific experiments that can be done to test our predictions.

Associative overdominance, the fitness difference between heterozygotes and homozygotes at a neutral locus, is classically described using two categories of models: linkage disequilibrium in small populations or identity disequilibrium in infinite, partially selfing populations. In both cases, only equilibrium situations have been considered. In the present study, associative overdominance is related to the distribution of individual inbreeding levels (i.e., genomic autozygosity). Our model integrates the effects of physical linkage and variation in inbreeding history among individual pedigrees. Hence, linkage and identity disequilibrium, traditionally presented as alternatives, are summarized within a single framework. This allows studying nonequilibrium situations in which both occur simultaneously. The model is applied to the case of an infinite population undergoing a sustained population bottleneck. The effects of bottleneck size, mating system, marker gene diversity, deleterious genomic mutation parameters, and physical linkage are evaluated. Bottlenecks transiently generate much larger associative overdominance than observed in equilibrium finite populations and represent a plausible explanation of empirical results obtained, for instance, in marine species. Moreover, the main origin of associative overdominance is random variation in individual inbreeding whereas physical linkage has little effect.

Genome-wide nucleotide variation in non-African populations of Drosophila melanogaster is a subset of variation found in East sub-Saharan African populations, suggesting a bottleneck in the history of the former. We implement an approximate Bayesian approach to infer the timing, duration, and severity of this putative bottleneck and ask whether this inferred model is sufficient to account for patterns of variability observed at 115 loci scattered across the X chromosome. We estimate a recent bottleneck 0.006Ne generations ago, somewhat further in the past than suggested by biogeographical evidence. Using various proposed statistical tests, we find that this bottleneck model is able to predict the majority of observed features of diversity and linkage disequilibrium in the data. Thus, while precise estimates of bottleneck parameters (like inferences of selection) are sensitive to model assumptions, our results imply that it may be unnecessary to invoke frequent selective sweeps associated with the dispersal of D. melanogaster from Africa to explain patterns of variability in non-African populations.

The phenomenon that the genetic variance of fitness components increase following a bottleneck or inbreeding is supported by a growing number of experiments and is explained theoretically by either dominance or epistasis. In this article, diffusion approximations under the infinite sites model are used to quantify the effect of dominance, using data on viability in Drosophila melanogaster. The model is based on mutation parameters from mutation accumulation experiments involving balancer chromosomes (set I) or inbred lines (set II). In essence, set I assumes many mutations of small effect, whereas set II assumes fewer mutations of large effect. Compared to empirical estimates from large outbred populations, set I predicts reasonable genetic variances but too low mean viability. In contrast, set II predicts a reasonable mean viability but a low genetic variance. Both sets of parameters predict the changes in mean viability (depression), additive variance, between-line variance and heritability following bottlenecks generally compatible with empirical results, and these changes are mainly caused by lethals and deleterious mutants of large effect. This article suggests that dominance is the main cause for increased genetic variances for fitness components and fitness-related traits after bottlenecks observed in various experiments.

RICH et al. ([1998][1]) have recently proposed that the current world population of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum consists of individuals descended from a single haploid genotype or strain (malarial Eve) that occurred between 24,500 and 57,500 years ago. They base this conclusion

Effects of a population bottleneck (founder-flush cycle) upon quantitative genetic variation of morphometric traits were examined in replicated experimental lines of the housefly founded with one, four or 16 pairs of flies. Heritability and additive genetic variances for eight morphometric traits generally increased as a result of the bottleneck, but the pattern of increase among bottleneck sizes differed among traits. Principal axes of the additive genetic correlation matrix for the control line yielded two suites of traits, one associated with general body size and another set largely independent of body size. In the former set containing five of the traits, additive genetic variance was greatest in the bottleneck size of four pairs, whereas in the latter set of two traits the largest additive genetic variance occurred in the smallest bottleneck size of one pair. One trait exhibited changes in additive genetic variance intermediate between these two major responses. These results were inconsistent with models of additive effects of alleles within loci or of additive effects among loci. An observed decline in viability measures and body size in the bottleneck lines also indicated that there was nonadditivity of allelic effects for these traits. Several possible nonadditive models were explored that increased additive genetic variance as a result of a bottleneck. These included a model with complete dominance, a model with overdominance and a model incorporating multiplicative epistasis.

A model is presented in which a large population in mutation/drift equilibrium undergoes a severe restriction in size and subsequently remains at the small size. The rate of loss of genetic variability has been studied. Allelic loss occurs more rapidly than loss of genic heterozygosity. Rare alleles are lost especially rapidly. The result is a transient deficiency in the total number of alleles observed in samples taken from the reduced population when compared with the number expected in a sample from a steady-state population having the same observed heterozygosity. Alternatively, the population can be considered to posses excess gene diversity if the number of alleles is used as the statistical estimator of mutation rate. The deficit in allele number arises principally from a lack of those alleles that are expected to appear only once or twice in the sample. The magnitude of the allelic deficiency is less, however, than the excess that an earlier study predicted to follow a rapid population expansion. This suggests that populations that have undergone a single bottleneck event, followed by rapid population growth, should have an apparent excess number of alleles, given the observed level of genic heterozygosity and provided that the bottleneck has not occurred very recently. Conversely, such populations will be deficient for observed heterozygosity if allele number is used as the sufficient statistic for the estimation of 4Nev. Populations that have undergone very recent restrictions in size should show the opposite tendencies.

Differentiation in morphometric traits among experimental populations of the housefly subjected to an experimental bottleneck was examined for replicate lines founded with one, four or 16 pairs of flies. Differentiation among lines within a bottleneck size was significantly greater than predicted by drift in relation to the additive genetic variation for these traits within the founding population. Two models of nonadditive genetic variance were investigated to interpret these results, one involving dominance of allelic effects within loci and another incorporating multiplicative epistasis. Both models generated more variation among lines as a direct result of sampling during the bottleneck than predicted by a model with additive gene action. The pattern of differentiation among our experimental lines in relation to these models conformed more to the model incorporating epistasis. Nevertheless, it may be difficult to distinguish differentiation among lines occurring during a bottleneck as a result of nonadditive gene action from that caused by diversifying selection among lines after the bottleneck.

Bottleneck effects on evolutionary potential in mating behavior were addressed through assays of additive genetic variances and resulting phenotypic responses to drift in the courtship repertoires of six two-pair founder-flush lines and two control populations of the housefly. A simulation addressed the complication that an estimate of the genetic variance for a courtship trait (e.g., male performance vigor or the female requirement for copulation) must involve assays against the background behavior of the mating partners. The additive "environmental" effect of the mating partner's phenotype simply dilutes the net parent-offspring covariance for a trait. However, it there is an interaction with this "environmental" component, negative parent-offspring covariances can result under conditions of high incompatibility between the population's distributions for male performance and female choice requirements, despite high levels of genetic variance. All six bottlenecked lines exhibited significant differentiation from the controls in at least one measure of the parent-offspring covariance for male performance or female choice (estimated by 50 parent-son and 50 parent-daughter covariances for 10 courtship traits per line) which translated to significant phenotypic drift. However, the average effect across traits or across lines did not yield a significant net increase in genetic variance due to bottlenecks. Concerted phenotypic differentiation due to the founder-flush event provided indirect evidence of directional dominance in a subset of traits. Furthermore, indirect evidence of genotype-environment interactions (potentially producing genotype-genotype effects) was found in the negative parent-offspring covariances predicted by the male-female interaction simulation and by the association of the magnitude of phenotypic drift with the absolute value of the parent-offspring covariance. Hence, nonadditive genetic effects on mating behavior may be important in structuring genetic variance for courtship, although most of the increases in genetic variance would be expected to reflect inbreeding depression with relatively rare situations representing the facilitation of speciation by bottlenecks.

Inferring selective sweeps from genetic data has been a breakthrough in population genetics. The most prominent examples come from populations suddenly exposed to extreme stressors, such as insecticides... One of the most useful models in population genetics is that of a selective sweep and the consequent hitch-hiking of linked neutral alleles. While variations on this model typically assume constant population size, many instances of strong selection and rapid adaptation in nature may co-occur with complex demography. Here, we extend the hitch-hiking model to evolutionary rescue, where adaptation and demography not only co-occur but are intimately entwined. Our results show how this feedback between demography and evolution determines—and restricts—the genetic signatures of evolutionary rescue, and how these differ from the signatures of sweeps in populations of constant size. In particular, we find rescue to harden sweeps from standing variance or new mutation (but not from migration), reduce genetic diversity both at the selected site and genome-wide, and increase the range of observed Tajima’s D values. For a given initial rate of population decline, the feedback between demography and evolution makes all of these differences more dramatic under weaker selection, where bottlenecks are prolonged. Nevertheless, it is likely difficult to infer the co-incident timing of the sweep and bottleneck from these simple signatures, never mind a feedback between them. Temporal samples spanning contemporary rescue events may offer one way forward.

The advent of the genomic era has necessitated the development of methods capable of analyzing large volumes of genomic data efficiently. Being able to reliably identify bottlenecks—extreme population size changes of short duration—not only is interesting in the context of speciation and extinction but also matters (as a null model) when inferring selection. Bottlenecks can be detected in polymorphism data via their distorting effect on the shape of the underlying genealogy. Here, we use the generating function of genealogies to derive the probability of mutational configurations in short sequence blocks under a simple bottleneck model. Given a large number of nonrecombining blocks, we can compute maximum-likelihood estimates of the time and strength of the bottleneck. Our method relies on a simple summary of the joint distribution of polymorphic sites. We extend the site frequency spectrum by counting mutations in frequency classes in short sequence blocks. Using linkage information over short distances in this way gives greater power to detect bottlenecks than the site frequency spectrum and potentially opens up a wide range of demographic histories to blockwise inference. Finally, we apply our method to genomic data from a species of pig (Sus cebifrons) endemic to islands in the center and west of the Philippines to estimate whether a bottleneck occurred upon island colonization and compare our scheme to Li and Durbin’s pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) both for the pig data and using simulations.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) undergoes a severe population bottleneck during sexual transmission and yet adapts extremely rapidly to the earliest immune responses. The bottleneck has been inferred to typically consist of a single genome, and typically eight amino acid mutations in viral proteins spread to fixation by the end of the early chronic phase of infection in response to selection by CD8+ T cells. Stochastic simulation was used to examine the effects of the transmission bottleneck and of potential interference among spreading immune-escape mutations on the adaptive dynamics of the virus in early infection. If major viral population genetic parameters are assigned realistic values that permit rapid adaptive evolution, then a bottleneck of a single genome is not inconsistent with the observed pattern of adaptive fixations. One requirement is strong selection by CD8+ T cells that decreases over time. Such selection may reduce effective population sizes at linked loci through genetic hitchhiking. However, this effect is predicted to be minor in early infection because the transmission bottleneck reduces the effective population size to such an extent that the resulting strong selection and weak mutation cause beneficial mutations to fix sequentially and thus avoid interference.

Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an efficient composite likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes ($n \leq 50$) and demographic size histories with a large number of epochs ($\mathcal{D} \geq 64$). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size ($n \geq 256$). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale recombination rate estimation. LDpop is freely available for download at https://github.com/popgenmethods/ldpop, 32 pages, 13 figures

Drosophila melanogaster spread from sub-Saharan Africa to the rest of the world colonizing new environments. Here, we modeled the joint demography of African (Zimbabwe), European (The Netherlands), and North American (North Carolina) populations using an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. By testing different models (including scenarios with continuous migration), we found that admixture between Africa and Europe most likely generated the North American population, with an estimated proportion of African ancestry of 15%. We also revisited the demography of the ancestral population (Africa) and found—in contrast to previous work—that a bottleneck fits the history of the population of Zimbabwe better than expansion. Finally, we compared the site-frequency spectrum of the ancestral population to analytical predictions under the estimated bottleneck model.

An approximate method is developed to predict the number of strongly overdominant alleles in a population of which the size varies with time. The approximation relies on the strong-selection weak-mutation (SSWM) method introduced by J. H. Gillespie and leads to a Markov chain model that describes the number of common alleles in the population. The parameters of the transition matrix of the Markov chain depend in a simple way on the population size. For a population of constant size, the Markov chain leads to results that are nearly the same as those of N. Takahata. The Markov chain allows the prediction of the numbers of common alleles during and after a population bottleneck and the numbers of alleles surviving from before a bottleneck. This method is also adapted to modeling the case in which there are two classes of alleles, with one class causing a reduction in fitness relative to the other class. Very slight selection against one class can strongly affect the relative frequencies of the two classes and the relative ages of alleles in each class.

It has been hypothesized that polyploidy permits the proliferation of transposable elements, due to both the masking of deleterious recessive mutations and the breakdown of host silencing mechanisms. We investigated the patterns of insertion polymorphism of an Ac-like transposable element and nucleotide diversity at 18 gene fragments in the allotetraploid Arabidopsis suecica and the autotetraploid A. arenosa. All identified insertions were fixed in A. suecica, and many were clearly inherited from the parental species A. thaliana or A. arenosa. These results are inconsistent with a rapid increase in transposition associated with hybrid breakdown but support the evidence from nucleotide polymorphism patterns of a recent single origin of this species leading to genomewide fixations of transposable elements. In contrast, most insertions were segregating at very low frequencies in A. arenosa samples, showing a significant departure from neutrality in favor of purifying selection, even when we account for population subdivision inferred from sequence variation. Patterns of nucleotide variation at reference genes are consistent with the TE results, showing evidence for higher effective population sizes in A. arenosa than in related diploid taxa but a near complete population bottleneck associated with the origins of A. suecica.

Although the frequency and effects of neutral and nearly neutral mutations are critical to evolutionary patterns and processes governed by genetic drift, the small effects of such mutations make them difficult to study empirically. Here we present the results of a mutation-accumulation experiment designed to assess the frequencies of deleterious mutations with undetectable effects. We promoted the accumulation of spontaneous mutations by subjecting independent lineages of the RNA virus φ6 to repeated population bottlenecks of a single individual. We measured fitness following every bottleneck to obtain a complete picture of the timing and effects of the accumulated mutations with detectable effects and sequenced complete genomes to determine the number of mutations that were undetected by the fitness assays. To estimate the effects of the undetected mutations, we implemented a likelihood model developed for quantitative trait locus (QTL) data (Otto and Jones 2000) to estimate the number and effects of the undetected mutations from the measured number and effects of the detected mutations. Using this method we estimated a deleterious mutation rate of U = 0.03 and a gamma effects distribution with mean \documentclass[10pt]{article} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{pmc} \pagestyle{empty} \oddsidemargin -1.0in \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\bar {s}}=0.093\end{equation*}\end{document} and coefficient of variation = 0.204. Although our estimates of U and \documentclass[10pt]{article} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{pmc} \pagestyle{empty} \oddsidemargin -1.0in \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\bar {s}}\end{equation*}\end{document} fall within the range of recent mutation rate and effect estimates in eukaryotes, the fraction of mutations with detectable effects on laboratory fitness (39%) appears to be far higher in φ6 than in eukaryotes.

When a population experiences a reduction of its effective size, it generally develops a heterozygosity excess at selectively neutral loci, i.e., the heterozygosity computed from a sample of genes is larger than the heterozygosity expected from the number of alleles found in the sample if the population were at mutation drift equilibrium. The heterozygosity excess persists only a certain number of generations until a new equilibrium is established. Two statistical tests for detecting a heterozygosity excess are described. They require measurements of the number of alleles and heterozygosity at each of several loci from a population sample. The first test determines if the proportion of loci with heterozygosity excess is significantly larger than expected at equilibrium. The second test establishes if the average of standardized differences between observed and expected heterozygosities is significantly different from zero. Type I and II errors have been evaluated by computer simulations, varying sample size, number of loci, bottleneck size, time elapsed since the beginning of the bottleneck and level of variability of loci. These analyses show that the most useful markers for bottleneck detection are those evolving under the infinite allele model (IAM) and they provide guidelines for selecting sample sizes of individuals and loci. The usefulness of these tests for conservation biology is discussed.

In 2002 Kim and Stephan proposed a promising composite-likelihood method for localizing and estimating the fitness advantage of a recently fixed beneficial mutation. Here, we demonstrate that their composite-likelihood-ratio (CLR) test comparing selective and neutral hypotheses is not robust to undetected population structure or a recent bottleneck, with some parameter combinations resulting in a false positive rate of nearly 90%. We also propose a goodness-of-fit test for discriminating rejections due to directional selection (true positive) from those due to population and demographic forces (false positives) and demonstrate that the new method has high sensitivity to differentiate the two classes of rejections.

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype diversity was determined for 46 Ngöbé Amerinds sampled widely across their geographic range in western Panamá. The Ngöbé data were compared with mtDNA control region I sequences from two additional Amerind groups located at the northern and southern extremes of Amerind distribution, the Nuu-Chah-Nulth of the Pacific Northwest and the Chilean Mapuche and from one Na-Dene group, the Haida of the Pacific Northwest. The Ngöbé exhibit the lowest mtDNA control region sequence diversity yet reported for an Amerind group. Moreover, they carry only two of the four Amerind founding lineages first described by Wallace and coworkers. We posit that the Ngöbé passed through a population bottleneck caused by ethnogenesis from a small founding population and/or European conquest and colonization. Dating of the Ngöbé population expansion using the Harpending et al. approach to the analysis of pairwise genetic differences indicates a Ngöbé expansion at roughly 6800 years before present (range: 1850-14,000 years before present), a date more consistent with a bottleneck at Chibcha ethnogenesis than a conquest-based event.

Adaptation in haploid organisms has been extensively modeled but little tested. Using a microvirid bacteriophage (ID11), we conducted serial passage adaptations at two bottleneck sizes (104 and 106), followed by fitness assays and whole-genome sequencing of 631 individual isolates. Extensive genetic variation was observed including 22 beneficial, several nearly neutral, and several deleterious mutations. In the three large bottleneck lines, up to eight different haplotypes were observed in samples of 23 genomes from the final time point. The small bottleneck lines were less diverse. The small bottleneck lines appeared to operate near the transition between isolated selective sweeps and conditions of complex dynamics (e.g., clonal interference). The large bottleneck lines exhibited extensive interference and less stochasticity, with multiple beneficial mutations establishing on a variety of backgrounds. Several leapfrog events occurred. The distribution of first-step adaptive mutations differed significantly from the distribution of second-steps, and a surprisingly large number of second-step beneficial mutations were observed on a highly fit first-step background. Furthermore, few first-step mutations appeared as second-steps and second-steps had substantially smaller selection coefficients. Collectively, the results indicate that the fitness landscape falls between the extremes of smooth and fully uncorrelated, violating the assumptions of many current mutational landscape models.

Of all pathogenic mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations in humans, ∼25% is de novo, although the occurrence in oocytes has never been directly assessed. We used next-generation sequencing to detect point mutations directly in the mtDNA of 3–15 individual mature oocytes and three somatic tissues from eight zebrafish females. Various statistical and biological filters allowed reliable detection of de novo variants with heteroplasmy ≥1.5%. In total, we detected 38 de novo base substitutions, but no insertions or deletions. These 38 de novo mutations were present in 19 of 103 mature oocytes, indicating that ∼20% of the mature oocytes carry at least one de novo mutation with heteroplasmy ≥1.5%. This frequency of de novo mutations is close to that deducted from the reported error rate of polymerase gamma, the mitochondrial replication enzyme, implying that mtDNA replication errors made during oogenesis are a likely explanation. Substantial variation in the mutation prevalence among mature oocytes can be explained by the highly variable mtDNA copy number, since we previously reported that ∼20% of the primordial germ cells have a mtDNA copy number of ≤73 and would lead to detectable mutation loads. In conclusion, replication errors made during oogenesis are an important source of de novo mtDNA base substitutions and their location and heteroplasmy level determine their significance.

Mitochondrial and nuclear DNA diversities were determined for two Chocó-speaking Amerind populations, the Emberá and Wounan, sampled widely across their geographic range in eastern Panamá. These data were compared with mitochondrial and nuclear diversities determined here and previously for neighboring Chibcha-speaking Ngöbé and Kuna populations. Chocoan groups exhibited mitochondrial diversity levels typical for Amerind populations while Chibchan groups revealed reduced mitochondrial diversity. A slight reduction in autosomal levels of heterozygosity was determined for the Chibcha while X and Y variation appeared equivalent in all populations. Genetic distinctiveness of the two linguistic groups contradicts the anthropological theory that Paleoindians migrated repeatedly through the isthmian region and, instead, supports the idea of cultural adaptation by endogenous populations. Reduced genetic diversity in Chibchan populations has been proposed to represent a population bottleneck dating to Chibchan ethnogenesis. The relative sensitivities of haplotype pairwise difference distributions and Tajima's D to detect demographic events such as population bottlenecks are examined. Also, the potential impact of substitution rate heterogeneity, population subdivision, and genetic selection on pairwise difference distributions are discussed. Evidence is presented suggesting that a larger effective population size may obscure the historical signal obtained from nuclear genes while the single mitochondrial locus may provide a moderately strong signal.

Golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), namely the snub-nosed monkey, is a well-known endangered primate, which distributes only in the central part of mainland China. As an effort to understand the current genetic status as well as population history of this species, we collected a sample of 32 individuals from four different regions, which cover the major habitat of this species. Forty-four allozyme loci were surveyed in our study by allozyme electrophoresis, none of which was found to be polymorphic. The void of polymorphism compared with that of other nonhuman primates is surprising particularly considering that the current population size is many times larger than that of some other endangered species. Since many independent loci are surveyed in this study, the most plausible explanation for our observation is that the population has experienced a recent bottleneck. We used a coalescent approach to explore various scenarios of population bottleneck and concluded that the most recent bottleneck could have happened within the last 15,000 years. Moreover, the proposed simulation approach could be useful to researchers who need to analyze the non- or low-polymorphism data.

Whole-genome sequencing in an isolated population with few founders directly ascertains variants from the population bottleneck that may be rare elsewhere. In such populations, shared haplotypes allow imputation of variants in unsequenced samples without resorting to complex statistical methods as in studies of outbred cohorts. We focus on an isolated population cohort from the Pacific Island of Kosrae, Micronesia, where we previously collected SNP array and rich phenotype data for the majority of the population. We report identification of long regions with haplotypes co-inherited between pairs of individuals and methodology to leverage such shared genetic content for imputation. Our estimates show that sequencing as few as 40 personal genomes allows for inference in up to 60% of the 3000-person cohort at the average locus. We ascertained a pilot data set of whole-genome sequences from seven Kosraean individuals, with average 5× coverage. This assay identified 5,735,306 unique sites of which 1,212,831 were previously unknown. Additionally, these variants are unusually enriched for alleles that are rare in other populations when compared to geographic neighbors (published Korean genome SJK). We used the presence of shared haplotypes between the seven Kosraen individuals to estimate expected imputation accuracy of known and novel homozygous variants at 99.6% and 97.3%, respectively. This study presents whole-genome analysis of a homogenous isolate population with emphasis on optimal rare variant inference.

A 1.9-kilobase region of the period locus was sequenced in six individuals of Drosophila melanogaster and from six individuals of each of three sibling species: Drosophila simulans, Drosophila sechellia and Drosophila mauritiana. Extensive genealogical analysis of 174 polymorphic sites reveals a complex history. It appears that D. simulans, as a large population still segregating very old lineages, gave rise to the island species D. mauritiana and D. sechellia. Rather than considering these speciation events as having produced "sister" taxa, it seems more appropriate to consider D. simulans a parent species to D. sechellia and D. mauritiana. The order, in time, of these two phylogenetic events remains unclear. D. mauritiana supports a large number of polymorphisms, many of which are shared with D. simulans, and so appears to have begun and persisted as a large population. In contrast, D. sechellia has very little variation and seems to have experienced a severe population bottleneck. Alternatively, the low variation in D. sechellia could be due to recent directional selection and genetic hitchhiking at or near the per locus.

Experimental evolution involves severe, periodic reductions in population size when fresh media are inoculated during serial transfer. These bottlenecks affect the dynamics of evolution, reducing the probability that a beneficial mutation will reach fixation. We quantify the impact of these bottlenecks on the evolutionary dynamics, for populations that grow exponentially between transfers and for populations in which growth is curbed by a resource-limited environment. We find that in both cases, mutations that survive bottlenecks are equally likely to occur, per unit time, at all times during the growth phase. We estimate the total fraction of beneficial mutations that are lost due to bottlenecks during experimental evolution protocols and derive the “optimal” dilution ratio, the ratio that maximizes the number of surviving beneficial mutations. Although more severe dilution ratios are often used in the literature, we find that a ratio of 0.1-0.2 minimizes the chances that rare beneficial mutations are lost. Finally, we provide a number of useful approximate results and illustrate our approach with applications to experimental evolution protocols in the literature.

Several features of the biology of mitochondria suggest that mitochondria might be susceptible to Muller's ratchet and other forms of evolutionary degradation: Mitochondria have predominantly uniparental inheritance, appear to be nonrecombining, and have high mutation rates producing significant deleterious variation. We demonstrate that the persistence of mitochondria may be explained by recent data that point to a severe “bottleneck” in the number of mitochondria passing through the germline in humans and other mammals. We present a population-genetic model in which deleterious mutations arise within individual mitochondria, while selection operates on assemblages of mitochondria at the level of their eukaryotic hosts. We show that a bottleneck increases the efficacy of selection against deleterious mutations by increasing the variance in fitness among eukaryotic hosts. We investigate both the equilibrium distribution of deleterious variation in large populations and the dynamics of Muller's ratchet in small populations. We find that in the absence of the ratchet, a bottleneck leads to improved mitochondrial performance and that, over a longer time scale, a bottleneck acts to slow the progression of the ratchet.

To examine the signature of population expansion on genetic variability at microsatellite loci, we consider a population that evolves according to the time-continuous Moran model, with growing population size and mutations that follow a general asymmetric stepwise mutation model. We present calculations of expected allele-size variance and homozygosity at a locus in such a model for several variants of growth, including stepwise, exponential, and logistic growth. These calculations in particular prove that population bottleneck followed by growth in size causes an imbalance between allele size variance and heterozygosity, characterized by the variance being transiently higher than expected under equilibrium conditions. This effect is, in a sense, analogous to that demonstrated before for the infinite allele model, where the number of alleles transiently increases after a stepwise growth of population. We analyze a set of data on tetranucleotide repeats that reveals the imbalance expected under the assumption of bottleneck followed by population growth in two out of three major racial groups. The imbalance is strongest in Asians, intermediate in Europeans, and absent in Africans. This finding is consistent with previous findings by others concerning the population expansion of modern humans, with the bottleneck event being most ancient in Africans, most recent in Asians, and intermediate in Europeans. Nevertheless, the imbalance index alone cannot reliably estimate the time of initiation of population expansion.

Genetic diversity is unusually high at loci in the S-locus region of the self-incompatible species of the flowering plant, Arabidopsis lyrata, not just in the S loci themselves, but also at two nearby loci. In a previous study of a single natural population from Iceland, we attributed this elevated polymorphism to linkage disequilibrium (LD) between variants at loci close to the S locus and the S alleles, which are maintained in the population by balancing selection. With the four S-flanking loci whose diversity we previously studied, we could not determine the extent of the region linked to the S loci in which neutral sites are affected. We also could not exclude the possibility of a population bottleneck, or of admixture, as causes of the LD. We have now studied four more distant loci flanking the S-locus region, and more populations, and we analyze the results using a theoretical model of the effect of balancing selection on diversity at linked neutral sites within and between different functional S-allelic classes. In the model, diversity is a function of the number of selectively maintained alleles and the recombination distances from the selectively maintained sites. We use the model to estimate the number of different functional S alleles, their turnover rate, and recombination rates between the S-locus region and other loci. Our estimates suggest that there is a small region of very low recombination surrounding the S-locus region.

Progress in understanding the evolution of variation at the MHC has been slowed by an inability to assess the relative roles of mutation vs. intragenic recombination in contributing to observed polymorphism. Recent theoretical advances now permit a quantitative treatment of the problem, with the result that the amount of recombination is at least an order of magnitude greater than that of mutation in the history of class II genes. We suggest that this insight allows progress in evaluating the importance of other factors affecting the evolution of the MHC. We investigated the evolution of MHC class II Eβ sequence diversity in the genus Peromyscus. We find evidence for extensive recombination in the history of these sequences. Nevertheless, it appears that intragenic recombination alone is insufficient to account for evolution of MHC diversity in Peromyscus. Significant differences in silent variation among subgenera arose over a relatively short period of time, with little subsequent change. We argue that these observations are consistent with the effects of historical population bottleneck(s). Population restrictions may explain general features of MHC evolution, including the large amount of recombination in the history of MHC genes, because intragenic recombination may efficiently regenerate allelic polymorphism following a population constriction.

We present a theoretical framework within which to analyze the results of experimental evolution. Rapidly evolving organisms such as viruses, bacteria, and protozoa can be induced to adapt to laboratory conditions on very short human time scales. Artificial adaptive radiation is characterized by a list of common observations; we offer a framework in which many of these repeated questions and patterns can be characterized analytically. We allow for stochasticity by including rare mutations and bottleneck effects, demonstrating how these increase variability in the evolutionary trajectory. When the product Np, the population size times the per locus error rate, is small, the rate of evolution is limited by the chance occurrence of beneficial mutations; when Np is large and selective pressure is strong, the rate-limiting step is the waiting time while existing beneficial mutations sweep through the population. We derive the rate of divergence (substitution rate) and rate of fitness increase for the case when Np is large and illustrate our approach with an application to an experimental data set. A minimal assumption of independent additive fitness contributions provides a good fit to the experimental evolution of the bacteriophage φX174.

A coalescence-based maximum-likelihood method is presented that aims to (i) detect diversity-reducing events in the recent history of a population and (ii) distinguish between demographic (e.g., bottlenecks) and selective causes (selective sweep) of a recent reduction of genetic variability. The former goal is achieved by taking account of the distortion in the shape of gene genealogies generated by diversity-reducing events: gene trees tend to be more star-like than under the standard coalescent. The latter issue is addressed by comparing patterns between loci: demographic events apply to the whole genome whereas selective events affect distinct regions of the genome to a varying extent. The maximum-likelihood approach allows one to estimate the time and strength of diversity-reducing events and to choose among competing hypotheses. An application to sequence data from an African population of Drosophila melanogaster shows that the bottleneck hypothesis is unlikely and that one or several selective sweeps probably occurred in the recent history of this population.

According to neutral quantitative genetic theory, population bottlenecks are expected to decrease standing levels of additive genetic variance of quantitative traits. However, some empirical and theoretical results suggest that, if nonadditive genetic effects influence the trait, bottlenecks may actually increase additive genetic variance. This has been an important issue in conservation genetics where it has been suggested that small population size might actually experience an increase rather than a decrease in the rate of adaptation. Here we test if bottlenecks can break a selection limit for desiccation resistance in the rain forest-restricted fly Drosophila bunnanda. After one generation of single-pair mating, additive genetic variance for desiccation resistance increased to a significant level, on average higher than for the control lines. Line crosses revealed that both dominance and epistatic effects were responsible for the divergence in desiccation resistance between the original control and a bottlenecked line exhibiting increased additive genetic variance for desiccation resistance. However, when bottlenecked lines were selected for increased desiccation resistance, there was only a small shift in resistance, much less than predicted by the released additive genetic variance. The small selection response in the bottlenecked lines was no greater than that observed in the control lines. Thus bottlenecks might produce a statistically detectable change in additive genetic variance but this change has no impact on the response to selection Udgivelsesdato: 9. August According to neutral quantitative genetic theory, population bottlenecks are expected to decrease standing levels of additive genetic variance of quantitative traits. However, some empirical and theoretical results suggest that, if nonadditive genetic effects influence the trait, bottlenecks may actually increase additive genetic variance. This has been an important issue in conservation genetics where it has been suggested that small population size might actually experience an increase rather than a decrease in the rate of adaptation. Here we test if bottlenecks can break a selection limit for desiccation resistance in the rain forest-restricted fly Drosophila bunnanda. After one generation of single-pair mating, additive genetic variance for desiccation resistance increased to a significant level, on average higher than for the control lines. Line crosses revealed that both dominance and epistatic effects were responsible for the divergence in desiccation resistance between the original control and a bottlenecked line exhibiting increased additive genetic variance for desiccation resistance. However, when bottlenecked lines were selected for increased desiccation resistance, there was only a small shift in resistance, much less than predicted by the released additive genetic variance. The small selection response in the bottlenecked lines was no greater than that observed in the control lines. Thus bottlenecks might produce a statistically detectable change in additive genetic variance but this change has no impact on the response to selection

River systems are vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and will often harbor populations deviating markedly from simplified theoretical models. We investigated fine-scale population structure in the sedentary river fish Cottus gobio using microsatellites and compared migration estimates from three FST estimators, a coalescent maximum-likelihood method and Bayesian recent migration analyses. Source-sink structure was evident via asymmetry in migration and genetic diversity with smaller upstream locations emigration biased and larger downstream subpopulations immigration biased. Patterns of isolation by distance suggested that the system was largely, but not entirely, in migration-drift equilibrium, with headwater populations harboring a signal of past colonizations and in some cases also recent population bottlenecks. Up- vs. downstream asymmetry in population structure was partly attributable to the effects of flow direction, but was enhanced by weirs prohibiting compensatory upstream migration. Estimators of migration showed strong correspondence, at least in relative terms, especially if pairwise FST was used as an indirect index of relative gene flow rather than being translated to Nm. Since true parameter values are unknown in natural systems, comparisons among estimators are important, both to determine confidence in estimates of migration and to validate the performance of different methods.

Self-fertilizing species often harbor less genetic variation than cross-fertilizing species, and at least four different models have been proposed to explain this trend. To investigate further the relationship between mating system and genetic variation, levels of DNA sequence polymorphism were compared among three closely related species in the genus Caenorhabditis: two self-fertilizing species, Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae, and one cross-fertilizing species, C. remanei. As expected, estimates of silent site nucleotide diversity were lower in the two self-fertilizing species. For the mitochondrial genome, diversity in the selfing species averaged 42% of diversity in C. remanei. Interestingly, the reduction in genetic variation was much greater for the nuclear than for the mitochondrial genome. For two nuclear genes, diversity in the selfing species averaged 6 and 13% of diversity in C. remanei. We argue that either population bottlenecks or the repeated action of natural selection, coupled with high levels of selfing, are likely to explain the observed reductions in species-wide genetic diversity.

We performed a large-scale experiment on the effects of inbreeding and population bottlenecks on the additive genetic and environmental variance for morphological traits in Drosophila melanogaster. Fifty-two inbred lines were created from the progeny of single pairs, and 90 parent-offspring families on average were measured in each of these lines for six wing size and shape traits, as well as 1945 families from the outbred population from which the lines were derived. The amount of additive genetic variance has been observed to increase after such population bottlenecks in other studies; in contrast here the mean change in additive genetic variance was in very good agreement with classical additive theory, decreasing proportionally to the inbreeding coefficient of the lines. The residual, probably environmental, variance increased on average after inbreeding. Both components of variance were highly variable among inbred lines, with increases and decreases recorded for both. The variance among lines in the residual variance provides some evidence for a genetic basis of developmental stability. Changes in the phenotypic variance of these traits are largely due to changes in the genetic variance.

Response to two-way selection for systolic blood pressure was immediate and continuous for about eight generations. In the twelfth generation, the High males differed from the Low males by 38 mmHG; the females differed by 39 mmHg. There was little overlap between the two lines and they were statistically significant from each other and from the Random control line. There appeared to be no more additive genetic variance in the eleventh and twelfth generations. Causes for the cessation of response are explored. This is probably due to a combination of natural selection acting to reduce litter sizes in the Low line, a higher incidence of sudden deaths in the High line, and loss of favorable alleles as both selection lines went through a population bottleneck in the ninth generation.—In the eleventh generation, the selected lines were used to produce F1, F2, and backcross generations. A genetic analysis yielded significant additive and dominance components in the inheritance of systolic blood pressure.

The amount of variability in a population that experiences repeated restrictions in population size has been calculated. The restrictions in size occur cyclically with a fixed cycle length. Analytical formulas for describing the gene identity at any specific time in the expanded and restricted phases of the cycle, and for the average and second moment of the gene identity, have been derived. It is shown that the level of genetic diversity depends critically on the two parameters that account for the population size, mutation rate and the time of duration for each of the two phases in the cycle. If one or both of these composite parameters are small, the gene diversity will be much reduced, and population gene diversity will then be predictable from knowledge of the harmonic mean population size over the entire cycle. If these parameters take on intermediate values, diversity changes constantly during the cycle, fluctuating steadily from a high to a low value and back again. If these parameters are large, gene diversity will fluctuate rapidly between extreme values and will stay at the extremes for long periods of time.

A simple numerical method was developed for the mean number and average age of alleles in a population that was initiated with no genetic variation following a sudden population expansion. The methods are used to examine the question of whether allele numbers are elevated compared with values seen in equilibrium populations having equivalent gene diversity. Excess allele numbers in expanding populations were found to be the rule. This was true whether the population began with zero variation or with low levels of variation in either of two initial distributions (initially an equilibrium allele frequency distribution or initially with loci occurring in only two classes of variation). Although the increase of alleles may persist for only a short time, when compared with the time which is required for approach to final equilibrium, the increase may be long when measured in absolute generation numbers. The pattern of increase in very rare alleles (those present only once in a sample) and the persistence of the original allele were also investigated.

THIRTY years ago Takeo Maruyama, Ranajit Chakradominant selection can be much greater than that mainborty, and I published an article about the effects tained by mutation-selection balance, but that overdomof bottlenecks on genetic variation (Nei et al. 1975). This inant selection incurs a large genetic load (genetic death article was motivated by two controversies occurring in or fertility excess required) that may not be bearable by evolutionary genetics at that time. One was the selecmammalian organisms when the number of loci is large tionist-neutralist controversy concerning the mainte(Kimura and Crow 1964). For this reason, Lewontin nance of protein polymorphism, and the other was the and Hubby (1966) could not decide between the two controversy over Mayr’s (1963) and Carson’s (1971) hypotheses when they found electrophoretic variation. idea that speciation is caused by the genetic revolution However, Sved et al. (1967), King (1967), and Milkman that occurs when population size is drastically reduced (1967) proposed that this genetic load can be reduced by bottleneck effects. I do not think that we resolved substantially if natural selection occurs by choosing only any of these controversies to everyone’s satisfaction, but individuals in which the number of heterozygous loci we clarified several aspects of the bottleneck effects in is greater than a certain number (truncation selection). evolutionary genetics. Soon after these articles were published, Crow (1970) The first controversy was initiated when protein elecand Nei (1971) argued that, unlike artificial selection, trophoresis revealed a large amount of genetic variation natural selection does not involve truncation selection. in natural populations (Shaw 1965; Harris 1966; LewIn the meantime, Robertson (1967), Crow (1968), ontin and Hubby 1966). Historically, this controversy and Kimura (1968) suggested that most protein polywas a new version of the previous controversy concernmorphisms are probably neutral and that the wild-type ing the maintenance of genetic variation. In the 1950s, alleles in the “classical” hypothesis are actually compopulation geneticists were divided into two camps, one posed of many iso-alleles or neutral alleles. camp supporting the “classical” theory and the other the However, the “balance” camp did not accept this sug“balance” theory (Dobzhansky 1955). The “classical” gestion, because they believed that almost all genetic theory asserted that most genetic variation within species polymorphisms were maintained by balancing selection is maintained by mutation-selection balance, whereas the (Clarke 1971). At that time, surveying the average het“balance” theory proposed that genetic variation is mainerozygosity (H ) for a number of species, Lewontin tained primarily by overdominant selection or some (1974, p. 208) and Ohta (1974) noted that H was 6– other type of balancing selection. The major supporters 18% for most species, irrespective of its population size. of the “classical” theory were H. J. Muller, James Crow, If the neutral theory were correct, H should increase and Motoo Kimura, and those supporting the “balance” with increasing population size (N). Therefore, Lewontheory were Theodosius Dobzhansky, Bruce Wallace, tin and Ohta took this observation as evidence against and E. B. Ford. During this controversy, it became clear the neutral theory. Ayala (1972) estimated that the that the amount of genetic variation maintained by overeffective population size of Drosophila willistoni in South America is at least 109 so that the expected heterozygosity would be 0.976 if the mutation rate is 10 7/locus/ This article is dedicated to the memory of Takeo Maruyama. year or 10 8/locus/generation. Under the neutral the1Address for correspondence: Institute of Molecular and Evolutionary ory, the expected heterozygosity in an equibrium popuGenetics, 328 Mueller Lab, Pennsylvania State Unversity, University Park, PA 16801. E-mail: nxm2@psu.edu lation is given by 4Nv/(4Nv 1), where v is the muta

Studies of human DNA sequence polymorphism reveal a range of diversity patterns throughout the genome. This variation among loci may be due to natural selection, demographic influences, and/or different sampling strategies. Here we build on a continuing study of noncoding regions on the X chromosome in a panel of 41 globally sampled humans representing African and non-African populations by examining patterns of DNA sequence variation at four loci (APXL, AMELX, TNFSF5, and RRM2P4) and comparing these patterns with those previously reported at six loci in the same panel of 41 individuals. We also include comparisons with patterns of noncoding variation seen at five additional X-linked loci that were sequenced in similar global panels. We find that, while almost all loci show a reduction in non-African diversity, the magnitude of the reduction varies substantially across loci. The large observed variance in non-African levels of diversity results in the rejection of a neutral model of molecular evolution with a multi-locus HKA test under both a constant size and a bottleneck model. In non-Africans, some loci harbor an excess of rare mutations over neutral equilibrium predictions, while other loci show no such deviation in the distribution of mutation frequencies. We also observe a positive relationship between recombination rate and frequency spectra in our non-African, but not in our African, sample. These results indicate that a simple out-of-Africa bottleneck model is not sufficient to explain the observed patterns of sequence variation and that diversity-reducing selection acting at a subset of loci and/or a more complex neutral model must be invoked.

It has been hypothesized that the ratio of X-linked to autosomal sequence diversity is influenced by unequal sex ratios in Drosophila melanogaster populations. We conducted a genome scan of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of 378 autosomal loci in a derived European population and of a subset of 53 loci in an ancestral African population. On the basis of these data and our already available X-linked data, we used a coalescent-based maximum-likelihood method to estimate sex ratios and demographic histories simultaneously for both populations. We confirm our previous findings that the African population experienced a population size expansion while the European population suffered a population size bottleneck. Our analysis also indicates that the female population size in Africa is larger than or equal to the male population size. In contrast, the European population shows a huge excess of males. This unequal sex ratio and the bottleneck alone, however, cannot account for the overly strong decrease of X-linked diversity in the European population (compared to the reduction on the autosome). The patterns of the frequency spectrum and the levels of linkage disequilibrium observed in Europe suggest that, in addition, positive selection must have acted in the derived population.

The idea that molecular data should contain information on the recent evolutionary history of populations is rather old. However, much of the work carried out today owes to the work of the statisticians and theoreticians who demonstrated that it was possible to detect departures from equilibrium conditions (e.g., panmictic population/mutation–drift equilibrium) and interpret them in terms of deviations from neutrality or stationarity. During the last 20 years the detection of population size changes has usually been carried out under the assumption that samples were obtained from populations that can be approximated by a Wright–Fisher model (i.e., assuming panmixia, demographic stationarity, etc.). However, natural populations are usually part of spatial networks and are interconnected through gene flow. Here we simulated genetic data at mutation and migration–drift equilibrium under an n-island and a stepping-stone model. The simulated populations were thus stationary and not subject to any population size change. We varied the level of gene flow between populations and the scaled mutation rate. We also used several sampling schemes. We then analyzed the simulated samples using the Bayesian method implemented in MSVAR, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation program, to detect and quantify putative population size changes using microsatellite data. Our results show that all three factors (genetic differentiation/gene flow, genetic diversity, and the sampling scheme) play a role in generating false bottleneck signals. We also suggest an ad hoc method to counter this effect. The confounding effect of population structure and of the sampling scheme has practical implications for many conservation studies. Indeed, if population structure is creating “spurious” bottleneck signals, the interpretation of bottleneck signals from genetic data might be less straightforward than it would seem, and several studies may have overestimated or incorrectly detected bottlenecks in endangered species.