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Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean (Zea mays L. and Glycine max Merr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (

The winter fallow period common in annual cropping systems leaves soils vulnerable to erosion and nutrient loss, especially to nitrogen (N) leaching. This vulnerability can be mitigated with perennial crops that have living roots in the ground year‐round. The mechanisms, magnitude, and consistency with which perennial crops retain N are not clear. We used an experiment to test whether a perennial crop, miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.), would leach less N than continuous maize (Zea mays L.) and how soil net N mineralization (Nmin) may explain observed leaching under varied environment and management conditions. The experiment included three crossed factors: (1) cropping system (maize, juvenile miscanthus = 1–2 years old, mature miscanthus = 3–4 years old); (2) N fertilization (0 and 224 kg N ha−1); and (3) environment (four site‐years at two locations in Iowa, USA, that differed in climate and soil fertility). We measured N cycling dynamics, including: inorganic soil N (ammonium + nitrate), in situ Nmin, N leaching, crop N uptake, and calculated system N use efficiency. There were many complex interactions among factors. On average, cumulative Nmin under juvenile miscanthus was 111% greater than maize, but as miscanthus matured, there was no difference in Nmin between the perennial crop and maize. There was no difference in N leaching between juvenile miscanthus and maize, but mature miscanthus decreased N leaching by 42% and 88% compared to maize (with and without N fertilization, respectively). Across all treatments, there was no relationship between Nmin and N leaching, suggesting other mechanisms are regulating N leaching. Overall, mature miscanthus shows promise as a tool to reduce N losses in areas dominated by annual row‐crops.

Progress on reducing nutrient loss from annual croplands has been hampered by perceived conflicts between short-term profitability and long-term stewardship, but these may be overcome through strategic integration of perennial crops. Perennial biomass crops like switchgrass can mitigate nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) leaching, address bioenergy feedstock targets, and – as a lower-cost management alternative to annual crops (i.e., corn, soybeans) – may also improve farm profitability. We analyzed publicly available environmental, agronomic, and economic data with two integrated models: a subfield agroecosystem management model, Landscape Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF), and a process-based biogeochemical model, DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC). We constructed a factorial combination of profitability and NO3-N leaching thresholds and simulated targeted switchgrass integration into corn/soybean cropland in the agricultural state of Iowa, USA. For each combination, we modeled (i) area converted to switchgrass, (ii) switchgrass biomass production, and (iii) NO3-N leaching reduction. We spatially analyzed two scenarios: converting to switchgrass corn/soybean cropland losing >US$ 100 ha−1 and leaching >50 kg ha−1 (‘conservative’ scenario) or losing >US$ 0 ha−1 and leaching >20 kg ha−1 (‘nutrient reduction’ scenario). Compared to baseline, the ‘conservative’ scenario resulted in 12% of cropland converted to switchgrass, which produced 11 million Mg of biomass and reduced leached NO3-N 18% statewide. The ‘nutrient reduction’ scenario converted 37% of cropland to switchgrass, producing 34 million Mg biomass and reducing leached NO3-N 38% statewide. The opportunity to meet joint goals was greatest within watersheds with undulating topography and lower corn/soybean productivity. Our approach bridges the scales at which NO3-N loss and profitability are usually considered, and is informed by both mechanistic and empirical understanding. Though approximated, our analysis supports development of farm-level tools that can identify locations where both farm profitability and water quality improvement can be achieved through the strategic integration of perennial vegetation.

The goal of this research is to determine the changes in streamflow, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) leaching and export to the Gulf of Mexico associated with a range of large-scale dedicated perennial cellulosic bioenergy production scenarios within in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). To achieve this goal, we used Agro-IBIS, a vegetation model capable of simulating the biogeochemistry of row crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, coupled with THMB, a hydrology model capable of simulating streamflow and DIN export. Simulations were conducted at varying fertilizer application rates (0 to 200 kg N ha−1) and fractional replacement (5 to 25%) of current row crops with miscanthus or switchgrass across the MARB. The analysis also includes two scenarios where miscanthus and switchgrass (MRX and MRS respectively) each replace the ca. 40% of maize production currently devoted to ethanol. Across the scenarios, there were minor reductions in runoff and streamflow throughout the MARB, with the largest differences (ca. 6%) occurring for miscanthus at the highest fractional replacement scenarios in drier portions of the region. However, differences in total MARB discharge at the basin outlet were less than 1.5% even in the MRX scenario. Reductions in DIN export were much larger on a percentage basis than reductions in runoff, with the highest replacement scenarios decreasing long-term mean DIN export by ca. 15 and 20% for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. Fertilization scenarios show that significant reductions in DIN leaching are possible even with application rates of 100 and 150 kg N ha−1 for switchgrass and miscanthus respectively. These results indicate that, given targeted management strategies, there is potential for miscanthus and switchgrass to provide key ecosystem services by reducing the export of DIN, while avoiding hydrologic impacts of reduced streamflow. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The production of perennial cellulosic feedstocks for bioenergy presents the potential to diversify regional economies and the national energy supply, while also serving as climate ‘regulators’ due to a number of biogeochemical and biogeophysical differences relative to row crops. Numerous observational and model based approaches have investigated biogeochemical tradeoffs, such as increased carbon sequestration and increased water use, associated with growing cellulosic feedstocks. A less understood aspect is the biogeophysical changes associated with the difference in albedo (α), which could alter the local energy balance and cause local to regional cooling several times larger than that associated with offsetting carbon. Here, we established paired fields of Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) and Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), two of the leading perennial cellulosic feedstock candidates, and traditional annual row crops in the highly productive “Corn-belt”. Our results show that miscanthus did and switchgrass did not have an overall higher α than current row crops but a strong seasonal pattern existed. Both perennials had consistently higher growing season α than row crops and winter α did not differ. The lack of observed differences in winter α, however, masked an interaction between snow cover and species differences, with the perennial species, compared with the row crops, having a higher α when snow was absent and a much lower α when snow was present. Overall, these changes resulted in an average net reduction in annual absorbed energy of about 5 W/m

In the Midwestern US, perennial rhizomatous grasses (PRGs) are considered one of the most promising vegetation types to be used as a cellulosic feedstock for renewable energy production. The potential widespread use of biomass crops for renewable energy production has sparked numerous environmental concerns, including the impacts of land-use change on the hydrologic cycle. We predicted that total seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) would be higher for PRGs relative to maize resulting from higher leaf area and a prolonged growing season. We further predicted that, compared with maize, higher aboveground biomass associated with PRGs would offset the higher ET and increase water-use efficiency (WUE) in the context of biomass harvests for liquid biofuel production. To test these predictions, ET was estimated during the 2007 growing season