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World Futures Day (WFD), the 24 h round-the-world participatory method hosted every year by The Millennium Project and others on March 1, stimulates conversations and collective intelligence on possible futures. The 2023 edition marked its tenth anniversary. The 2023 Global futures agenda coming out from the data analysis is composed of four main clusters, each listing future oriented topics and related contents. Cluster 1, Complex solutions for complex problems, includes topics such as Environmental regeneration, Predictable food systems, Energy transition, Homo Galaxia, and Synergetic relations for peace. Cluster 2, A hyper-technological humanity, includes topics such as A biological revolution, New definitions of truth, An emotional AGI, A conscious AGI, and AGI governance. Cluster 3, Education and learning for a better future, includes topics such as Intelligent agent teachers, Intergenerational storytelling, and A cultural shift to self-actualization. Cluster 4, Improving global foresight, includes topics such as Futurists as a contradiction, A new leadership agenda, Futures shapers, The power of stories, Judging trillions of scenarios, Committees and summits for the future. After discussing some changes in the contents addressed over the years and some potential next steps for the research on WFD, the conclusions report that one key takeaway from WFD 2023 is that we have a vital need for pragmatic hope. • Synergetic relations help resilience from a systemic perspective. • We must talk about global agreements and treaties on AGI governance. • The next leaders may be communities that answer to collective needs. • AI-powered Futures Research will judge trillions of scenarios. • WFD is a participatory free-for-all free-flowing conversation on futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of foresight, which allows companies and organizations to build scenarios and inform the creation and sustainment of their competitive advantage, relies on the integration of several steps. Scanning is a crucial step of foresight, as it informs and influences the results of the whole process and, thus, the strategic decision-making of the company. Sources and methods of scanning for foresight analysis can be diverse and lead to different results, although few studies investigate such differences: more specifically, the informative power of academic and non-academic articles and reports has not been assessed yet. This study aims to shed novel light on how the different analysis methods of full reading of records and text mining analysis isolate and gather forces of change differently, based on the source analyzed. The study's empirical context is the metaverse and its application in healthcare. We find that each source and method by itself is unable to fully gather the whole set of forces of change; however, each source presents some topics that are specific to the target readers of the source, and each methodology presents some advantages as well as some limitations. From the comparison of the results, theoretical and managerial implications are drawn. • The informative power of academic and non-academic articles and reports is compared. • Extensive reading and text mining analyses are applied. • Results differ based on the combination of sources and methods. • There is the need of expertise on both text mining and Foresight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foresight methods help us to think about the future and overcome a bias toward short-term thinking in decision making. However, many approaches to investigating the future tend to leave implicit how individuals involved in the interventions relate to the present and to the future in practice and over time. To address this gap, our study highlights the affordances of two methodologies —Scenario Planning and Future Design. In a pilot study combining these methods, we report the results of the novel hybridized approach applied in strategic planning workshops across four corporations. Initial reflections and learnings from the pilot case study and literature review helps to build understandings of the practical and theoretical workings of the methodological innovation. By investigating this combination of foresight methodologies, this research opens up new ways for thinking about futuring and proposes a theory of Futures Empathy. Futures Empathy harnesses a person's capacity for empathy in a novel way by applying it toward a future context. It consists of an iterative double looping process between self and a not yet existent future. Through imagination and reflection, foresight methods that build Futures Empathy can enhance personal connection and integration with a longer time horizon, thus overcoming presentism. By proposing a theory of Futures Empathy, we hope to contribute to better present and future relating in practice and over time across a multitude of foresight interventions. • Futures Empathy can inform present self and future self relating across all foresight practice. • Futures Empathy harnesses a person's capacity for empathy in a novel way by applying it toward a future context. • Futures Empathy can enhance personal connection and integration with a longer time horizon, overcoming presentism. • Futures Empathy consists of Future Perspective Taking and Contextual Understanding of Intergenerational Interdependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to suggest that mapping of archetype scenarios onto the three horizons could provide a useful starting point for understanding change in a domain. It was observed in practice that the combination of a scenario archetype technique and the Three Horizons framework seemed to generate a useful pattern in the relative importance of the archetype scenarios according to the time horizon. In short, a baseline archetype seemed to be most prevalent in Horizon 1, either a Collapse or New Equilibrium archetype in Horizon 2, and a Transformation in H3. To test this idea, 78 historical scenario sets conducive to the archetype technique were identified, and the proposed pattern was tested against the how the domains actually unfolded over time. The results indeed suggested some evidence for the pattern. They also raised a series of interesting research questions for the futures community going forward. • Scenario archetypes can be usefully mapped along the Three Horizons framework to improve understanding of how domains change over time. • Historical scenarios sets can be retroactively fitted to scenario archetypes and mapped along the Three Horizons framework • The principal pattern of change based on this mapping appears to be from the Baseline Archetype in Horizon 1, to the New Equilibrium Archetype in Horizon 2, to the Transformation Archetype in Horizon 3. • Notably, the Collapse pathway was less evident than the research team anticipated. • Overall, the timing of the movement along the horizons was slower than the research team anticipated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploratory scenarios based on participatory approaches proved helpful in dealing with uncertainty and complexity in urban and transport systems. Such scenarios usually create coherent and manageable narratives that capture broad patterns and trends at global scales. However, significant difficulties exist in bridging exploratory scenario narratives with spatial and local realities, which is crucial for guiding policymaking in urban, regional, and mobility planning. This paper explores whether and how exploratory scenario narratives and participatory mapping processes can establish a reciprocal relationship, wherein narrative-based maps contribute to spatially shaping scenario narratives. It uses an experimental approach involving three participatory workshops with experts and local stakeholders specifically tailored to the mapping of land use and transportation-related scenario narratives for the year 2050 in the Henares Corridor (Madrid, Spain). The spatial transformations mapped during workshops have indicated that participatory mapping processes have an impact on scenario narratives in different ways, enabling the identification of three categories of mapping episodes with different meanings: (i) complementing narratives, (ii) expanding narratives, and (iii) modifying narratives. The paper closes by examining the implications of the obtained findings for policymaking, including a reflection on the research's limitations and potential for application in real-world planning processes. • It examines the impact of participatory mapping processes on scenario formulation. • It utilizes three mapping workshops involving experts and local stakeholders. • Results show transformations in land use and transport in exploratory scenario narratives. • It identifies mapping episodes complementing, expanding, and modifying scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foresight practice can help societies creatively imagine and prepare for possible futures. The current qualitative study uses a foresight lens to consider the ways communities in the Western United States use mutual aid as a collective care strategy and preparative tool to address social justice challenges. Using Dator's (2009) four futures framework, this study constructed four future scenarios through the creation of composite personas which exemplify scenario archetypes (growth, constraint, collapse, and transformation). The researchers used data from interviews of mutual aid participants and organizers (N = 25) during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic about the future of mutual aid in 5–10 years. Using these interviews, researchers constructed an artifact of a message board where each composite persona exemplifies what happens 10 years post-COVID-19 through a series of message board forums. The paper ends with implications for the use of foresight practice to help prepare researchers, practitioners, and educators interested in understanding mutual aid as community-based solution to the complex crises to come. ● Researchers interviewed mutual aid participants and organizers (N = 25) about the future of mutual aid in 5-10 years. ● Researchers used Jim Dator's (2009) four future scenario archetypes to create composite personas in conversation on a message board artifact. ● Research participants identified each future of mutual aid as part of a changing landscape that centered solidarity and collective care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a particular subfield of futures studies, foresight evaluation has not yet been thoroughly studied. This paper investigates research on foresight evaluation, reviewing authors, articles, journals, topics, evaluative elements, and foresight frames. We analyzed 186 academic papers published over the past 30 years. The analysis shows that foresight evaluation, which originated in Europe and partly diffused to North America and Asia, is still an emerging discipline. Research on the evaluation of foresight has covered four topics: 1) Project for Policy, 2) Future Methodology, 3) Technology, and 4) Future Impact; studies in these areas show that there is currently no active research on topics other than technology. Each of these four topics encompasses traditional evaluative elements, such as impact and quality, but few studies reflect the hopeful element of learning. Also, the results of our analysis show that the predictive and planning frames are in high demand, while less predictable frames are not. This study elucidates the reasons behind the inactive state of foresight evaluation research. This paper argues that both researchers and decision-makers have an important role in overcoming this inertia and finding new paths for continuing the development of foresight evaluation. ● Investigates the research on foresight evaluation over the past 30 years. ● No currently active research on topics other than technology. ● Among the evaluative elements, quality and impact are more prevail than learning. ● Predictive and planning are more active than others among the six foresight frames. ● Suggest a new path for continuing the development of foresight evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The Austrian Parliament is piloting parliamentary foresight and technology assessment function. • Industry 4.0 is an emerging technology area in need of informed parliamentary and public debate. • The process model tested has shown the potential of future-oriented dialogue as well as its time and resource constraints. The widespread use of information and communication technologies to interconnect manufacturing systems at the shop floor level and along the value chain, also known as Industry 4.0, Advanced Manufacturing or Industrial Internet, has evolved into a topic of heated public debate due to its potential social and economic repercussions. Together with other recent technological advances, it gave rise to calls for strengthening the role of the Austrian parliament as a forum of informed debate about both the promising and the problematic implications of emerging technologies for the future of our economies and societies. In contrast to parliaments in several other European countries, the Austrian parliament has not been endowed with a dedicated foresight and technology assessment (TA) support function up to now. Only recently such a function has been tested in the context of a pilot project on Industry 4.0, which fulfilled a double role of devising and testing a methodology for providing support to the Committee on Research, Technology and Innovation (RTI) and of giving substantive and accessible input to the emerging parliamentary and public debates about Industry 4.0. This paper provides insights into the process tailored to the parliament's needs and its outcomes. The focus is on the design of the process and the facilitation of debates informed by an assessment of opportunities and challenges of Industry 4.0. The underlying analysis of societal implications covers a number of key areas; a summary of the results on skill demands and safety and security serves as an example. In line with the growing attention that is generally paid to foresight and TA in policy making, we reflect on how parliaments may integrate these practices into their procedures and thus acquire a more prominent role as forums for debating the dynamics of future socio-technical change with all its potential promises, drawbacks and associated governance challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The paper introduces an approach to analyse future competitive dynamics. • We combine scenario analysis with business war gaming. • The paper reports on the application in the financial industry. • We discuss the value of the approach. Abstract The deliberate exploration of how the future competitive landscape may evolve is critical to uncovering threats and opportunities for firms that seek to improve their core businesses and advance to a superior position in the markets of the future. While techniques such as business wargaming can effectively support this process, such techniques can benefit from placing competitive considerations within a broader future landscape shaped by geopolitical, social, technological and economic forces. Scenario planning allows for the exploration of interactions across multiple external forces to create a rich set of narratives on how the future may unfold. This paper will discuss the potential of combining scenario planning and business wargaming to enable strategists to anticipate moves and countermoves and foresee their consequences. We use a real-life case study to illustrate how a scenario-planning exercise can guide the crucial stage of selecting relevant future competitors of a firm prior to engaging in a business-war-gaming exercise. We then introduce what we term the prospective competitive strategy process to guide the analysis of potential competitive dynamics, emphasizing the synergies between scenario planning and business wargaming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The commercial game sector has seen transformative changes over the last decade. • These developments can be leveraged for the use of games in futures contexts. • The paper links game sector developments to recent advances in futures games. • Changes in culture, production, dissemination, content and form are analysed. • An analysis of links and gaps leads to recommendations for futures games. Abstract In the last decade, games have grown into a dominant and highly diverse form of media, characterized by a number of transformations in the game sector that offer new opportunities for games in a futures context. These developments include changes in the cultural presence, the production and dissemination of games, which in turn have led to changes in their content and forms. This paper investigates to what extend such game sector developments have been utilized by games in a futures context, and building on this analysis, where the key opportunities are to leverage game sector developments to advance the field of futures games. Connections are made between game sector developments on the one hand and alternate reality games, massively multiplayer games, experiential futures games, online video games, game design engines and game jams on the other. Key recommendations resulting from this analysis include researching new player bases, adapting existing games, blurring the lines between commercial games and futures games, developing new futures games design and dissemination infrastructure, integrating futures games and present action, and organizing new funding mechanisms for futures games. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a context driven by uncertainty, climate crisis, and erratic societal behaviors, proposing fashion futures practices on a more sustainable and less predictable basis is paramount. This paper reflects on the limitations of fashion forecasting to offer a values-driven and sustainability-oriented alternative to fashion futures practices. Based on an interpretative and qualitative approach, this study emerges from a series of collaborative workshops that interlace reality and fiction, materiality and culture, free-spirited imagination and strategic planning not as oppositional dualisms but as complementary and entrenched concepts. As a result, it proposes Fashion Futuring - a methodological approach that intertwines speculative design, material culture, and foresight as a more expanded, systemic, and values-driven futures-thinking strategy for fashion. Fashion Futuring explores collaboration and cultural values embedded into fictional artefacts as drivers to bridge imagination and reflection for planning transitions towards sustainability. • Demonstrates a methodological approach for fashion and futures that intertwines speculative design, material culture, and foresight. • Reflects on how collaboration and speculative design can contribute to shaping more sustainable futures for fashion from a material culture perspective. • Presents differences between fashion forecasting and Fashion Futuring. • Discusses how fictional objects intertwine pasts, presents, and futures cultural structures as a medium to inform values-driven and systemic reflections towards futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Integration of futures field and policymaking through use of Policy Analysis. • Elimination of overlap between Forecasting, Foresight and Futures disciplines. • Linking disciplines in futures field to uncertainty levels used in Policy Analysis. • Unambiguous typology for field of 'anticipating uncertain future developments'. • Guiding framework for futures studies (or research) in support of policymaking. Abstract Policymakers need to make policies for unknown and uncertain futures. Researchers in the futures field have a great deal to contribute to the policymaking process. But, futures research is often neglected as an element of policymaking. The aim of this paper is to improve the link between futures research and policymaking. More specifically, as Policy Analysis has a strong link with policymaking, this paper explores the possibility of linking Policy Analysis to the futures field through the use of an uncertainty typology applied in Policy Analysis. The typology can be used to structure the various forward-looking disciplines (or subfields) of the futures field according to the level of uncertainty that they address. This linkage can add significantly to the use of futures research in policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel classification framework for severe global catastrophic risk scenarios. Extending beyond existing work that identifies individual risk scenarios, we propose analysing global catastrophic risks along three dimensions: the critical systems affected, global spread mechanisms, and prevention and mitigation failures. The classification highlights areas of convergence between risk scenarios, which supports prioritisation of particular research and of policy interventions. It also points to potential knowledge gaps regarding catastrophic risks, and provides an interdisciplinary structure for mapping and tracking the multitude of factors that could contribute to global catastrophic risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the question of managing the existential risk potential of general Artificial Intelligence (AI), as well as the more near-term yet hazardous and disruptive implications of specialised AI, from the perspective of a particular research project that could make a significant contribution to the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI): the Human Brain Project (HBP), a ten-year Future and Emerging Technologies Flagship of the European Commission. The HBP aims to create a digital research infrastructure for brain science, cognitive neuroscience, and brain-inspired computing. This paper builds on work undertaken in the HBP’s Ethics and Society subproject (SP12). Collaborators from two activities in SP12, Foresight and Researcher Awareness on the one hand, and Ethics Management on the other, use the case of machine intelligence to illustrate key aspects of the dynamic processes through which questions of ethics and society, including existential risks, are approached in the organisational context of the HBP. The overall aim of the paper is to provide practice-based evidence, enriched by self-reflexive assessment of the approach used and its limitations, for guiding policy makers and communities who are, and will be, engaging with such questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay explores the ways in which understandings derived from approaches to general risk management in the policy environment provide a useful starting point for wider consideration of approaches to extreme risks. The findings are not the result of a research project, but draw on practice and reflection on risk management and strategic futures in central government in the UK over the last 15 years, with an emphasis on the role of the Government Chief Scientific Advisor and Government Office for Science. From the perspective of a policy-maker, extreme risks are likely to be viewed initially through the lens of experience of risk in policy-making more generally. Approaches to the management of well-characterised risks in the context of civil emergencies show the importance of linking assessments of risk to the purpose of making the assessment, of communication and engagement, and of avoiding groupthink and narrow disciplinary discussions. In some cases where the risks cannot be well-characterised or easily imagined, new forms of visualisation and narrative, including futures work, can be used to shape and bound the risks and to engage policy-makers or citizens. Approaches to risk management in the context of innovation policy show the need to consider the risk of inaction as well as action, and the importance of path dependency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing call for proactive and long-term policy-making, a variety of approaches and instruments of anticipatory policy advice have been devised, implemented and analyzed. However, so far, very little is known about the temporal aspects of such instruments. This article explores the temporal ordering of the future in three prominent instruments of anticipatory policy advice: Strategic Environmental Assessment, Technology Assessment and Foresight. Based on 25 cases of SEA, TA, and Foresight processes in Austria, the article first presents the specific time horizons that are applied in the instruments. Time horizons in anticipatory policy advice frequently span around 10–20 years and have an upper limit of 50 years into the future. In a second step, the article explores and discusses how the chosen time horizons explicitly and implicitly base on varying time scales that are related to the subject matter, epistemic considerations, human experiences, political aspects, and spatial contexts. Owing to these time scales, multiple dynamics of limiting and expanding the future in time are to be found in anticipatory policy advice. Overall, the article illustrates that the tendency to shorten time horizons prevails, contradicting the very purpose of instruments of anticipatory policy advice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a method that was developed for analyzing the strategic foresight process of the Hungarian Ministry of Defense. In 2013–2014, experts of the Hungarian Ministry of Defense applied a strategic foresight method to identify potential threats and opportunities for 2015–2030 period. This work led them to anticipate the broad trends that lead to the European migration crisis and a more confrontative Russian foreign policy. However, in retrospect the methods used were not specific enough about the time frame of these potential outcomes, nor did the Hungarian analysts believe their findings strongly enough. These results generated a lively debate among Hungarian defense experts about how the foresight method could be improved. This paper contributes to this effort by introducing a three-step diagnostic method for foresight processes that applies different analytical frameworks developed in the foresight literature. The first step leverages Voros’ foresight framework, the second step utilizes Rafael Popper's categories of analysis, and step three evaluates the root causes of problems experienced in the foresight study. The paper concludes that the Hungarian foresight process was a so-called “shallow” foresight exercise because the organizational mindset of the Hungarian Ministry of Defense oriented the analysts narrowly towards intelligence methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future health systems will be required to accommodate changing social and treatment environments along with new and not-before-contemplated health care roles. Thus, health workforce planning is likely to benefit from improved problem identification, response formulation and data and methods that provide deeper understandings of socially influenced systems. Actor analysis is able to facilitate this through its examination of actor goals, interactions, and influences. We explore the use of this infrequently reported method in the context of health workforce planning. Through an embedded mixed methods design, we draw on data from inductive document analysis, deductively coded semi-structured interview responses from two separate but interconnected health sub sectors and numerically transform these to comply with the selected actor analysis software’s input requirements. Our findings underline the importance of actor analysis as an investigative resource for delineating actor positions on a range of strategic issues pertinent to health workforce futures to reveal a different perspective of the system’s evolution than that derived from conventional health workforce forecasting methods. A hierarchy of critical issues and the influential actors that hold sway over the workforce discourse are found, providing some insight into why conventional workforce plans can provide less than expected results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year 2016 was a turning year for international relations. Under the global threat of terrorism and in the climate of ‘postfactual’ politics and large political changes, the trust in western political systems has severely been shaken. It is within this climate that deliberating the future of one of the most important international relationships, namely that between the European Union and the People’s Republic of China, is urgently required. Using the methodology of several scenario workshops working from the identification of key drivers by international experts to developing several scenarios based on combinations of these drivers, this research ties into current future studies. Three scenarios were chosen and their ‘histories of the future’ reflect the outlook of an economically and politically strengthened China vis-à-vis the European Union, while differences remain on the benefits and losses implied for European countries depending on their ability to stay united within the European Union. The role of the US and the trilateral relationship emerges as an important determinant of the bilateral relationship as well. The driver of technological leadership, however, is the area in which European policy is most able to influence and adapt to the changes implied by the three scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a technology foresight methodology based on the development of a complementary approach to the Delphi method that enables the identification of strategic technological competences, and presents its application in a sheet metal processing equipment manufacturer. The proposed methodology takes into consideration synergies between future events through a modified QFD matrix, and the application involved a panel of experts from industry and academia. The proposed methodology can benefit organizations by promoting a homogeneous perspective on existing relationships between external drivers and technology diffusion. This study contributes for the understanding of the links between foresight and technology strategy formulation. Further implementations in industrial environments should be performed to refine the methodology and increase the confidence level on the expected results that these findings can signify. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the various reasons to engage in foresight activities, one encountered often is to stimulate dialogue on imminent issues and inspire innovations aimed at the challenges they bring along. The authors' studio, Pantopicon, was asked to carry out a (near future) foresight desk study investigating the changing role between people and their home/office interiors. Furthermore they were asked to render tangible the challenges brought forward by this study and create a thought-provoking experience for an audience of professionals and general visitors within the context of a trade fair (i.e. the Biennale Interieur in Kortrijk, Belgium). The article will zoom in on the particular way in which this challenge was taken up, i.e. by creating an immersive experience embodying imminent future changes by means of five fair booths. Each represented a fictitious company with products or services aimed at new needs, opportunities and abilities emerging from changes in the relationship between people and their home interiors. This article describes the follow-up approach, the results obtained and reflects upon a series of key learnings following from the experience in particular and the role and value of conceptual design in enhancing the experience factor in foresight in general. Hence, we aim to illustrate how an immersive conceptual design approach can be used in an applied foresight context and how it raises new questions and opportunities for both research and applied contexts. Through physical evidencing 1 1 As in ( Tassi, 2009 ) and open-ended storytelling, futures rendered tangible through design contribute to instilling a sense of wonder in people, in shifting their mindset to render them more susceptible to anticipating some of tomorrow’s changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mental time travel can be described as a method of guiding the participants of a workshop into a picture or a whole series of pictures of the future. This should be thought of as a movie rather than static images and includes emotions. Mental time travel is still a new method in foresight processes, in generating futures, futures research or future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) in general, and is only rarely used to open up the minds of participants at the beginning of workshops so that their thinking does not remain fixed in the past or the present. Time travelling can be applied to different cases and at different stages of a foresight process (phases of strategic intelligence gathering, sense-making or even implementation), e.g. participants are also able to think disruptively in new pictures instead of just extrapolating from the past. Clinical and psychological studies do not yet exist for this kind of time travel, but first experiences from very different foresight processes are available. This paper presents the experiences gained from six national and international foresight cases, in which time travel was applied. Different ways of performing it are reported and set in the context of the specific foresight process concepts. Experiences are shared by examining the lessons learned and the pros and cons of this new method, so that the organizers of foresight processes can better assess how the method could fit their specific context, objectives, method mix and participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While scenario-building has proven useful in situations marked by considerable uncertainty in the context of land use and transport policymaking, additional research is needed to develop adaptive and dynamic scenario-building schemes. To address this gap, the present paper conceptualises an adaptive scenario-building approach that would facilitate adaptive policy responses by using exploratory scenarios as intermediate tipping points. An empirical research design is also conducted following a participatory approach, with a case study of the Henares Corridor in the Metropolitan Area of Madrid, Spain. Three exploratory scenarios are assessed as experimental tipping points for the basic policy pathways initially adopted by regional and local governments. The use of such tipping points suggested different adaptive policy responses: (i) preserving policy responses when exploratory scenarios are strongly aligned with the basic pathways; and (ii) transforming policy responses when significant deviations are perceived between the exploratory scenarios and the basic pathways. The paper also discusses the real-life application potential of this adaptive scenario-building approach, further research steps, and future horizons for scenario-building. • It is proposed a conceptual framework for an adaptive scenario-building approach. • Exploratory scenarios are used as intermediate tipping points. • A proof-of-concepts is conducted in the Henares corridor (Spain). • Different adaptive policy responses are defined and discussed for the case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholarly discussion around the governance of human genome editing (HGE) recognizes that development and application of HGE techniques could result in unexpected societal outcomes. However, it contains few to no methodological models for how to anticipate, prepare for, or shape such outcomes. This article presents early-stage results from research guided by anticipatory governance, a framework for broad expert and public consideration of innovation processes and purposes. We present and discuss key themes emerging from a set of future-oriented interviews with genome editing practitioners and experts, designed to inform broadly scoped deliberations about plausible futures of HGE. We articulate our results as seven "open questions," the answers to which will be important components of HGE's eventual shape and outcomes. Some themes are perennial in studies of science and society, and others are more novel to HGE. Each helps to reframe HGE beyond a simple comparison of risk and benefit. Such reframing opens up new and important terrain for discussion among policymakers, academics, scientists, and publics. We suggest that discussion framed around broad and reflexive questions like those presented here will help governance efforts to better acknowledge and flexibly respond to the uncertainty and complexities of HGE developments. • Adverse biotechnological events can stem from failures of foresight in governance. • Governance has been constrained by focus on individual, quantifiable risks. • Strategic foresight methods permit exploration of undomesticated problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humanity is grappling with the inevitable interconnectedness of the Earth's systems and societal processes. Innovative methodologies have emerged to predict and address the complex challenges of the Anthropocene, including numerous transdisciplinary research frameworks. With these comes a questioning of disciplinary boundaries and the role of the expert, as well as a concern for incorporating knowledge that is "otherwise." Water research has a rich history and plethora of methods for dealing with elements of surprise and uncertainty inherent in complex systems. A spectrum of approaches has emerged, from the positivist, rule-finding approaches of agent-based modelling and complexity theory, to the relational and plural approaches of place-based research. In identifying this spectrum, we can begin to imagine the qualities, skills and approaches necessary for scientific endeavours in an age of transition. From the quantitative predictions of engineering and economics to the reflections and proposals of daily water users, water research offers insights into the implications and consequences of transdisciplinary foresight. • Transdisciplinarity has been proposed to revisit the role of science in an age of transition. • Transdisciplinary research addresses complexity, uncertainty, and the role of the expert along a spectrum. • Water research offers rich methodological experiences to explore this spectrum. • Transdisciplinarity ranges from rule-finding, positivist approaches to relational, aesthetic, and place-based approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In more than 50 years the overall hegemonic concern among futurists has been climate- and environmental policy issues. These concerns are important to follow up on, but as futurists we should move beyond the current hegemony of climate- and environmental policy issues and discuss "what could be the main topic for futurists to discuss the next 50 years?". This paper aims at giving a brief presentation of the core ideas of Sustainability and the Anthropocene, and how they relate to the futures field, both historic, contemporary and in the futures. To understand the nature of sustainability we have to elaborate on the nature of nature. The paper starts with a presentation of different networks of futurists, their historic and contemporary roles, not least their relations to the emerging socio-political movements in the late 1960s, 1970s, and beyond. In particular, the author highlights the emergence of socio-ecological thinking and critically review three forms of reactions to the cartesian modernist dualist thinking. These demonstrate the need for philosophical reflection on these distinctions, but also indirectly force us to rethink what futures research and -competences means today. The contemporary climate- and environment policy strategies are important, but as futurists, we need to look beyond the horizon of current climate- and environmental policy issues. Further, these results point toward a need within the Futures Field to discuss possible ontologies of Futures and the creation of new diagnosis of the era concepts. This author has experimented with a term called Universal Perspectivism, but the point here is not to define a certain concept but to open up for further terminological investigations. As futurists we need other conceptual frames than those which are defined with negations and "post"-suffixes. • Futurists should move beyond the current hegemony of climate- and environmental policy issues. • Futurists need other conceptual frames than those which are defined with negations and "post"-suffixes. • The idea of a universal humanity is dependent on the construction of Nature, that basically is considered to be not-human. • These constructions of a human perspective and a perspective of what humans are not, are universal constructions. • The distinction between "the Artificial" and "the Natural" is challenged by current and future developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores how skills and knowledge from the field of science fiction and fantasy (SFF) creative writing can be applied in technology foresight, especially for workshops with transdisciplinary research teams. The practical model introduced here, Story Thinking, builds upon and complements existing models for combining elements of storytelling with foresight, and highlights the contributions of writing practitioners. It offers four benefits for transdisciplinary teams: (1) it provides effective and straightforward techniques to inhabit possible futures (2) it encourages researchers to empathise with the humans who may have an impact on the uses of new technology; (3) it allows these researchers to envision plausible, possible and preferable chains of cause and effect; and (4) it works to engage researchers across disciplines in a shared vision, developing affinities to see them through the complex dimensions of large research projects. This article offers a rationale and background for this model, articulates it as it currently stands, and analyses a case study emerging from an ongoing collaboration with the University of Queensland and the Australian Defence Forces (ADF). • Science fiction and fantasy writing skills bring new benefits to technology foresight. • Setting studies show how complex systems interrelate and constrain solutions. • Characterisation aids empathy and perspective-taking. • Plotting models scenarios with high uncertainty and limited existing data. • A shared language builds cooperation amongst transdisciplinary researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current marketplace narratives increasingly demand a move from shareholder towards stakeholder primacy and responsible capitalism yielding social value creation. In parallel, the demand for entrepreneurial value creation at higher education institutions (including, but not limited to business schools) continues to grow. The intersection of these two demands, however, engenders critical tensions. While social value creation emphasizes stakeholder returns and a long-term perspective, entrepreneurial value creation revolves around investment returns and short-term agility. As a result, business schools have been grappling to find ways to incorporate a broader, holistic view on value creation into their activities. We bring together future studies and management scholars and scholarship to explore futures literacy as a potentially instrumental capability for business schools. Our investigation suggests that an interdisciplinary approach is particularly promising since both management and futures studies investigate how to engage with uncertainty and chart more desirable futures. We illustrate the instrumental role of futures literacy and foresight with an educational program built at the intersection of entrepreneurial and social value creation and with anticipatory practices at its core. We suggest that anticipatory practices are currently underutilized in business schools' curricula, outreach activities, and strategy making, and may be necessary to shape productive and constructive business schools of the future. • Business schools face growing demands to demonstrate and enable both social and entrepreneurial value creation. • The intersection of these two demands engenders critical tensions in temporal and strategic frames. • Futures literacy is discussed as a potential instrumental capability for business schools. • Anticipatory programs and practices engendering futures literacy are generally underutilized in business schools. • The potential of futures literacy in business schools is illustrated through the Startup Impact Readiness Program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twitter is a popular micro-blogging service and platform for public real-time communication. Concerning foresight, the value of Twitter has not been discussed or examined yet. Here this article concentrates on and considers different applications to examine how to use Twitter in foresight exercises. First, Twitter is discussed as a data source for retrieving input to roadmapping or scenarios. Therefore, an analysis framework is introduced and illustrated for the case of #quantifiedself . Second, options are outlined how to interact with a global network of people using Twitter as communication platform, e.g., for being used during foresight workshops or receiving input for scenario development. As the results show, both, the monitoring of topics and technologies, but also the active user engagement, are supported. In summary, Twitter is an opportunity to extend the considered data sources and to increase the number of involved stakeholder views. While the reliability of Twitter data still requires critical reflection, this article implies many new research opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Informed consent is a well-established practice in medical and behavioral research worldwide for both ethical and legal reasons ( Faden & Beauchamp, 1986 ). Futures studies, while an eclectic multidisciplinary field, can reasonably be classified as primarily a social science and as such can involve human subjects in its research. Moreover much of the field is oriented toward applied, prescriptive pathways toward preferred futures that can involve influencing public policy and thus have significant social ramifications. This work investigates the extent to which futures studies research is involving human subjects, and, if so, whether informed consent practices are being applied to such futures studies research. The study proceeds to report the results of a poll of World Futures Studies Federation and Association of Professional Futurists members to gauge the nature of their research with emphasis on the use of human subjects and submission of proposed research to IRB evaluation. The piece concludes with a discussion on the expansion of the concept of informed consent to include engaging the public-at-large in the long-term effects of policy initiatives as a key element of the futures studies field and the representation of futures perspectives on institutional review boards particularly those involved in research on groups and communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How will foresight practice evolve into the next decade and beyond? How might its supply and demand factors self-organize? In 2012 a real-time Delphi study, entitled, “The Certification of Professional Futurists 2030,” was conducted among 142 experts from 29 countries to debate the forces that might diminish or enhance futures work. The study consisted of 14 projections out to the year 2030, ranging from whether the global futures field might “employ a viable form of certification for professional futurists,” to whether it might “share a common accepted understanding of futures assumptions, theory, methods, knowledge, and ethics.” Panelists identified themselves with various futures associations. This article presents the findings, including where there is dissent and consensus in the futures field over the likelihood, impact and desirability of the professionalization of its practice. Further scale development using factor analysis, ordered by the theory of competitive advantage, produced a scenario model of three market forces: assimilation, academicisation, or certification. The third force of professional certification by 2030 was deemed least likely and less desirable. This wide ranging survey therefore offers the futures field a common conversation protocol to rethink how it might redesign its value chain and differentiate itself against other professions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, foresight has been connected to various disciplines that engage with complex societal problems, leading to specific interpretations of foresight. We offer an interdisciplinary perspective on foresight's increasing use for governance of social-ecological systems (SES). We seek to strengthen the use of foresight in this domain by bridging to insights from other disciplines that can help overcome its limitations. Participatory foresight for SES governance offers potential to elicit thinking about uncertainty and complexity, facilitate dialogue between stakeholders, and improve inclusiveness of governance processes, but often fails to be sufficiently reflexive and politically aware to be truly impactful and inclusive. It can be strengthened, we argue, by a more thorough integration with adjacent research fields: critical futures studies, critical systems theory and environmental governance. We distill key insights from these fields, including the importance of being politically reflexive about whose perspectives are considered, whom foresight processes should benefit, and the importance of co-producing methodology and outcomes. We encourage scholars and practitioners to further explore integration with these fields, highlighting the importance of inter- and transdisciplinary teams. Finally, we offer an example for how limitations of foresight as used in a particular field can be overcome through interdisciplinary integration. • This paper offers an interdisciplinary perspective on the increasing use of foresight to engage with the governance of social-ecological systems (SES). • Foresight for governance of social-ecological systems has the potential to elicit thinking about contextual change and complexity, and to facilitate dialogue and improve inclusiveness of governance processes, but often lacks the reflexivity and political awareness it needs to make it truly impactful and inclusive. • We argue that there is much to gain from a more thorough integration with the fields of critical futures studies, critical systems theory and environmental governance. • We distill a number of insights from the literatures of these fields, including the importance of being reflexive about whose values and perspectives are taken into account, whom a foresight process should benefit, and the importance of co-producing both methodology and outcomes. • We encourage scholars and practitioners to further explore the integration of foresight for SES governance with these adjacent fields, and want to stress the importance of interdisciplinary teams in this regard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A transition from a linear to a circular economy (CE) is one of the key solutions to the sustainability crisis. A CE requires new mental models and insights, especially of a desirable future towards which to move. A CE aims at making better use of resources and jointly considers economic, environmental and social sustainability aspects in the long run. The objective of this study is to develop alternative images of the future for CE in Finland in 2050. The study was performed using qualitative research methods and covers extensive data from 61 interviews with experts. We analysed the data using qualitative content analysis. Four alternative images of the future were generated: A circular success story, A circle of disaster, Local circles, and Structural, regulated circularity. This study contributes to the CE literature by using a futures studies approach and describing alternative futures for a CE through images of the future. By creating alternative futures, one can better reflect on and discuss future possibilities. Our images of the future provide insights to achieve a CE both in Finland and globally. • For a circular economy, a desirable future to move towards is required. • Four images of the futures of circular economy are created. • The optimistic image is most aligned with sustainability as it considers a balance of all sustainability dimensions. • Our future images provide insights to achieve circular economy globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methods and tools to anticipate futures are growing in prominence to guide decision-making under climate change. A research agenda into the steering effects of these processes is growing but has largely ignored how imagined futures impact present-day actions beyond the Global North. This paper presents a case study analysis of anticipatory governance in a highly climate-vulnerable area - West Africa. It examines processes of anticipation through an analytical framework that identifies four distinct approaches to anticipatory governance in terms of their conceptualization of the future, implications for actions in the present, and ultimate aims intended to be realized. The study finds two dominant approaches that appear in hybrid forms which are quite technocratic in character. These hybrids assess probable or plausible futures to inform and build capacities for strategic risk reduction. Many anticipation processes are participatory, but often focus on transferring expert-based knowledge to stakeholders or discussing adaptation options rather than opening up dialogue on what and whose futures to engage with. The paper argues that more plural and critical dialogue is needed in which stakeholders have agency to shape futures and address power imbalances, particularly in these contexts where anticipation relies on western funding and science. • There are very different ideas of how to know and govern futures in the present. • Suggestions for actions in the present are quite technocratic and linear. • Anticipation largely relies on western funding, science and technologies. • International involvement is presented as technical assistance and apolitical. • Plural and critical anticipation is missing to open up and democratize futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study incorporates the futures studies and foresight perspectives in analysing an industrial change towards service business, with the magazine markets as the case context. It illustrates how the industry is adopting a new competitive strategy via services that are added to the total offering, and how it is simultaneously developing a deeper understanding of the service relationship as value co-creation. The work identifies seven trends in this context and analyses their impacts and discontinuities. Three trends are linked primarily to the business environment: a dispersing customer base, changes in media use habits, and erosion of product business. Four trends describe the behaviour of companies: the shifts from products to value-adding brands, from R&D to innovation, from autonomy to partnering and sharing in an ecosystem, and the changing resource and capability needs. The contributions of this work are twofold. First, studying media as service has been rare in scholarly literature. Second, applying the service perspective to the trend analysis in the media sector is topical due to the increasing competition and unpredictability of the business environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of studies have explored the interconnection between the foresight literature and the innovation system literature. This paper adds to these studies by investigating how theoretical elements of the innovation system approach can contribute to the design and practice of foresight processes. The paper originates in a foresight project in the Nordic facilities management sector. The goal of the foresight project was to identify the possible futures of the facilities management sector in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) and, based on the findings, to establish a proposal for a common Nordic facilities management research agenda. The paper finds that three elements of the innovation system literature are of particular interest for the practice of foresight: innovation systems and context dependency, learning and user-producer interactions, and the role of knowledge and knowledge production. These elements are embedded into a simple sectoral innovation system model (including actors, knowledge flows, and the strategic environment). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Although open innovation is a dominant paradigm, the relationship between open innovation and futures research has not been explored. [•] There is emerging a kind of future research what is termed in this article ‘networked foresight’. [•] The Cyclic Innovation Model is capable of making the link between foresight and open innovation. [•] The smaller networks of RWS and EICT concentrate on foresight with a focus on strategic implications and initiation of new business activities. [•] The ‘opposition’ role of foresight is strengthened in the large network of the EIT ICT Labs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we discuss the opinions and experiences of local and national Dutch policy-makers in applying foresight methods within the context of strategic policy processes. Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods, and the barriers and leverage points experienced by policy-makers are described and compared at the local and the national level. Different insights are related to different activities in the policy cycle, i.e., agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation. In most evaluative studies on foresight, the added value is addressed from a ‘supply-driven’ point of view, by which we mean from the point of view of experts on the production or methodology of foresight studies. In this paper, the evaluation is approached from a demand-driven perspective, in other words, from a user perspective – i.e., that of policy-makers who have applied the results of foresight methods in policy-making processes. The insights presented in this paper are based on recent policy document analyses, in-depth interviews, and questionnaire research involving users in the local and national policy domain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes. Inspired by sociologists’ contributions on national culture, the paper demonstrates that two dimensions of national culture, power distance and uncertainty avoidance, are useful in the characterisation of the context in which national foresight exercises are carried out. The paper is based on two Danish cases: The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Danish Research 2015 process, from 2008, which focus on priority settings for strategic research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This contribution explores the use of a Foresight tool, namely the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) survey, in informing policy-making during the design phase of a new Framework Programme in research, technology, development and innovation (RTDI). The Dynamic Argumentative Delphi enables not only quantitative assessments for future statements, but also supports these estimates with qualitative arguments that are visible to fellow contributors; and ranked in real-time according to the frequency of their selection. Using project "BOHEMIA – Beyond the Horizon" project as an example for a procedure bringing in issues under uncertainty into a policy-making process, we undergo a structural analysis of the content generated (the results of the Delphi survey), exploring the quantitative and qualitative results obtained. More specifically, analysing the argumentation generated by respondents, this paper investigates to what extent the perceived feasibility of statements is consistent with the estimated time of realization and whether the perceived desirability of the statements creates a bias in the estimated time of realization. We observe that participants' argumentation is consistently correlated with the quantitative estimations, where more extended debates on some statements reflect a real dispersion of opinions. Moreover, expressed feasibility is correlated with average time of realization. One rather surprising, but encouraging finding, is the absence of a consistent desirability bias, i.e. more votes for arguments that deem the statement desirable are not correlated with a shorter estimated time of realization. • New Foresight tool, the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) survey explored. • Outcomes of the DAD survey in the project "BOHEMIA – Beyond the Horizon" for the preparation of Horizon Europe. • Test whether perceived desirability and probability of potential future developments influence the identification and formulation of future issues. • Participants' argumentation is consistently correlated with the quantitative estimations, where more extended debates on some statements reflect a real dispersion of opinions. • A consistent desirability bias in the answers is not observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [ • ] Knowledge is an important driver of public policy. [ • ] Knowledge about the future can contribute substantially to futures oriented public policy. [ • ] However, knowledge about the future has characteristics that make it problematic for use in policy. [ • ] In policy organizations, specialized workers and units of anticipatory boundary workers can improve the fit of foresight and policy. [•] Our empirical study explains the dilemmas of boundary workers and units and suggests possible repertoires to deal with those dilemmas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Explores a prototype of an emerging technology, based on ambient intelligence and affective computing. [•] Focuses on ethical issues of emerging ICTs, including privacy, intellectual property, human computer interaction. [•] Is based on the European foresight research project ETICA (www.etica-project.eu). [•] Aims to contribute to a broader discourse of the ethics of emerging ICTs with a view to developing pathways to responsible research and innovation in ICT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Scenarios have proven useful tools for dealing with future uncertainty in an integrated and cohesive way. A key issue in scenario approaches, still under development, is the linking of scenarios at different spatial scales, in order to be better understood the interaction of processes across scales. The paper presents the AG2020 experience on linking EU-wide backcasting policy scenarios, exploring strategic policy directions for the EU agriculture in 2020 to regional policy scenarios in different EU rural contexts. This may lead to an in depth exploration of region-specific characteristics in different EU rural contexts that need to be effectively dealt within the European backcasting policy scenario framework; but also to a systematic assessment of the upcoming impacts of the EU-level scenarios to the local scale, i.e. down-scaling of the EU top-down scenarios and checking how they affect regions and rural localities in the EU. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The concept of improvisation, while now recognized in organization studies, has been neglected in strategy studies. We suggest that one of the reasons for this is the dominance of a structural view of strategy and competition. Alternative views, such as the Austrian school or those that stress the Red Queen effect, emphasize the process-based nature of competition. In fast-changing environments, speed and reaction are central attributes, which render the traditional separation between planning and execution untenable. In these contexts, improvisation, the convergence of planning and execution, becomes a paradoxical form of “real time foresight”: organizations screen trends, spot opportunities, actively wait and/or act with speed to seize the moment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]