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The primary goal of the present research was to determine the order of swimmers on a mixed relay team that would ensure the best performance in the Fédération Internationale de Natation (FINA) World Championships held in Kazan (Russia, 2015), Budapest (Hungary, 2017), and Gwangju (South Korea, 2019). The data were obtained from database websites for the 4 × 100 m freestyle and 4 × 100 m medley official results,1 including 660 records from 188 entries of finals and 472 preliminary events. The results showed that the fastest swimmers (according to their best season times) were located primarily in the first or second positions of the freestyle relay. The most successful gender strategy for the 4 × 100 m freestyle (57 out of 82 observations) and for the 4 × 100 m medley (29 out of 83) relays was the order male-male-female-female, although no statistical differences were found (p = 0.79) for the medley relays. In the 4 × 100 m freestyle, the second (p = 0.002; β = 1.62) and third (p =0.003; β = 1.41) relay legs had a statistical effect on the total relay time, whereas in the 4 × 100 m medley, all four relay legs had a statistical effect (p < 0.001) on the final performance, the weight of the four strokes being different in heats with respect to the final round. Also, a later position of the first female swimmer or the consecutive position of two female swimmers in the team order significantly affected the relay performance in specific events. Mixed relay events appeared to present specific strategies in comparison to traditional male- or female-only relay lineups.

PurposeThe primary aim was to create a performance progression model of elite competitors in the World Swimming Championships from 2006 to 2017 for all strokes and distances. Secondly, to identify the influence of annual ratios of progression, ages of peak performance and junior status on success in senior competitions.MethodsData regarding the participants of senior and junior World Championships (WCs) between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final filtered database, after removing those swimmers who just participated in junior WCs, included 4076. Statistical models were used to examine differences between the top senior swimmers (the top 30% best performances; T30) and lower level swimmers (the bottom 70% performances; L70) for minimum age (MA), progress (P) and best junior time (BJ). In order to identify the variables that contribute to reach the T30 group, a logistic regression (LR), stepwise LR and decision tree were applied. To analyze the effect of each variable separately, a simple LR (gross odds ratio) was performed. Ratio probabilities (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each variable.ResultsSwimmer’s BJ and P were higher in the T30 group (p < 0.000). The decision tree showed the greatest explanatory capacity for BJ, followed by P. The MA had a very low explanatory capacity and was not significant in the LR.ConclusionSwimmers with exceptional junior performance times, or have a high rate of progress are more likely to be successful at the senior WCs.

Purpose: This study aimed to compare the performance progression model of the European countries that participated in the World Championships (WCs) from 2006 to 2017. Data from all championships were compared between the top five (1–5) and the next five (6–10) countries on the medal table. The study also identifies the ages of peak performance in senior swimmers, the annual ratio of progression and the effect of junior performance on senior success by these groups of countries. We hypothesized that: (1) countries with swimmers achieving better performances at the Junior WCs would also be higher in the medal ranking at the Senior WCs and (2) a higher annual performance progression in their swimmers increases the chances of countries being ranked in the top 5 at the Senior World Championships.Methods: Participant’s data from all Junior and Senior WCs between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final, filtered database included 629 swimmers after removing those participating only in the Junior WCs and selecting swimmers from the top 10 countries. One-way ANOVA, F test, and decision tree methods were used to examine differences between the top (1–5) and the next best (6–10) countries on the medal table for first participation age, annual progress, and best-time in junior and senior championships.Results: There was no difference (p = 0.492 and p = 0.97) between 1–5 and 6–10 ranked countries for best senior time and annual progression, respectively. Countries ranked in the top 5 at the Senior WCs had swimmers with faster times at the Junior WCs (p > 0.001). Decision tree analysis found that best-time at the Junior WC had the greatest explanatory capacity (94%).Conclusion: European countries with swimmers who perform best at the Junior WCs are also likely to be in the top 5 countries that win medals at the Senior WCs.