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Most people adapt to bereavement over time. For a minority, the grief persists and may lead to a prolonged grief disorder (PGD). Identifying grievers at risk of PGD may enable specific prevention measures. The present study examined the extent to which the subjective unexpectedness of the death predicted grief outcomes above and beyond known sociodemographic and objective loss-related variables in a sample drawn from a population-representative investigation. In our sample (n = 2,531), 811 participants (Mage 55.1 ± 17.8 years, 59.2% women) had experienced the loss of a significant person six or more months ago. Participants provided demographic and loss-related information, perceptions of the unexpectedness of the death and completed the Prolonged Grief Disorder-13 + 9 (PG-13 + 9). The PG-13 + 9 was used to determine PGD caseness. A binary logistic regression investigated predictors of PGD caseness, and a linear regression predictors of grief severity. ANCOVAs compared PGD symptoms between the groups who had experienced an “expected” vs. “unexpected” loss, while controlling for the relationship to the deceased and time since loss. The loss of a child (OR = 23.66; 95%CI, 6.03–68.28), or a partner (OR = 5.32; 95%CI, 1.79–15.83), the time since loss (OR = 0.99; 95%CI, 0.99–1.00) and the unexpectedness of the death (OR = 3.58; 95%CI, 1.70–7.69) were significant predictors of PGD caseness (Nagelkerke’s R2 = 0.25) and grief severity. Participants who had experienced the loss as unexpected (vs. expected) reported higher scores on all PGD symptoms. Unexpectedness of the death emerged as significant risk factor for PGD, even after controlling for demographic and other loss-related variables. While our findings replicate previous research on the importance of the relationship to the deceased as a risk factor for PGD, they also highlight the importance of assessing the subjective unexpectedness of a death and may help to identify risk groups who can profit from preventive interventions.

Present-centered therapy (PCT) was originally developed as a strong comparator for the non-specific effects of psychotherapy in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder. PCT qualifies as a not strictly supportive treatment as it is structured and homework is assigned between sessions. It does not focus on cognitive restructuring or exposure. A growing body of literature supports its beneficial effects. For example, it demonstrated only slightly inferior effect sizes and lower dropout rates compared to that of trauma-focused cognitive behavioral therapy in several trials with patients suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder. The current study is the first to evaluate the feasibility and the treatment effects of PCT in adults with prolonged grief disorder (PGD). Meta-analyses on psychotherapy for PGD have yielded moderate effect sizes. N = 20 individuals suffering from PGD were treated with PCT by novice therapists as part of a preparation phase for an upcoming RCT in an outpatient setting. Treatment consisted of 20–24 sessions á 50 min. All outcomes were assessed before treatment, at post-treatment, and at the 3-month follow-up. The primary outcome, PGD symptom severity, was assessed using the Interview for Prolonged Grief-13. Secondary outcomes were self-reported PGD severity, depression, general psychological distress, and somatic symptom severity. Furthermore, therapists evaluated their experiences with their first PCT patient and the treatment manual. In intent-to-treat analyses of all patients we found a significant decrease in interview-based PGD symptom severity at post-treatment (d = 1.26). Decreases were maintained up to the 3-month follow-up assessment (d = 1.25). There were also significant decreases in self-reported PGD symptoms, depression, and general psychological distress. No changes were observed for somatic symptoms. The completion rate was 85%. Therapists deemed PCT to be a learnable treatment program that can be adapted to the patient's individual needs. The preliminary results of PCT as a treatment for PGD demonstrate large effects and indicate good feasibility in outpatient settings. The treatment effects were larger than those reported in meta-analyses. Thus, PCT is a promising treatment for PGD. Possible future research directions are discussed.