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Global HIV-1 genetic diversity forms a major obstacle to the development of an HIV vaccine. It may be necessary to employ subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines in individual countries according to their HIV-1 subtype distribution. We estimated the global and regional need for subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines. We took into account the proportions of different HIV-1 variants circulating in each country, the genetic composition of HIV-1 recombinants, and the different genome segments (gag, pol, env) that may be incorporated into vaccines. We modeled different scenarios according to whether countries would employ subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines against (1) the most common subtype; (2) subtypes contributing more than 5% of HIV infections; or (3) all circulating subtypes. For therapeutic vaccines targeting the most common HIV-1 subtype in each country, 16.5 million doses of subtype C vaccine were estimated globally, followed by subtypes A (14.3 million) and B (4.2 million). A vaccine based on env required 2.6 million subtype E doses, and a vaccine based on pol required 4.8 million subtype G doses. For prophylactic vaccines targeting the most common HIV-1 subtype in each country, 1.9 billion doses of subtype A vaccine were estimated globally, followed by subtype C (1.1 billion) and subtype B (1.0 billion). A vaccine based on env required 1.2 billion subtype E doses, and a vaccine based on pol required 0.3 billion subtype G doses. If subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines are also directed against less common subtypes in each country, vaccines targeting subtypes D, F, H, and K are also needed and would require up to five times more vaccine doses in total. We conclude that to provide global coverage, subtype-specific HIV-1 vaccines need to be directed against subtypes A, B, and C. Vaccines targeting env also need to include subtype E and those targeting pol need to include subtype G.

Washington, DC consistently has one of the highest annual rates of new HIV-1 diagnoses in the United States over the last 10 years. To guide intervention and prevention strategies to combat DC HIV infection, it is helpful to understand HIV transmission dynamics in a historical context. Toward this aim, we conducted a retrospective study (years 1987–2015) of 3,349 HIV pol sequences (1,026 bp) from 1,995 individuals living in the DC area belonging to three different cohorts. We coupled HIV sequence data with clinical information (sex, risk factor, race/ethnicity, viral load, subtype, anti-retroviral regimen) to identify circulating drug resistant mutations (DRM) and transmission clusters and assess their persistence over time. Of the transmission clusters identified in the DC area, 78.0 and 31.7% involved MSM and heterosexuals, respectively. The longest spread of time for a single cluster was 5 years (2007–2012) using a distance-based network inference approach and 27 years (1987–2014) using a maximum likelihood phylogenetic approach. We found eight subtypes and nine recombinants. Genetic diversity increased steadily over time with a slight peak in 2009 and remained constant thereafter until 2015. Nucleotide diversity also increased over time while relative genetic diversity (BEAST) remained relatively steady over the last 28 years with slight increases since 2000 in subtypes B and C. Sequences from individuals on drug therapy contained the highest total number of DRMs (1,104–1,600) and unique DRMs (63–97) and the highest proportion (>20%) of resistant individuals. Heterosexuals (43.94%), MSM (40.13%), and unknown (44.26%) risk factors showed similar prevalence of DRMs, while injection drug users had a lower prevalence (33.33%). Finally, there was a 60% spike in the number of codons with DRMs between 2007 and 2010. Past patterns of HIV transmission and DRM accumulation over time described here will help to predict future efficacy of ART drugs based on DRMs persisting over time and identify risk groups of interest for prevention and intervention efforts within the DC population. Our results show how longitudinal data can help to understand the temporal dynamics of HIV-1 at the local level.