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Achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) requires managing ecosystems subject to a variety of pressures such as climate change, eutrophication, and fishing. However, ecosystem models are generally much better at representing top-down impacts from fishing than bottom-up impacts due to warming or changes in nutrient loading. Bottom-up processes often have to be parameterised with little data or worse still taken as a system input rather than being represented explicitly. In this study we use an end-to-end ecosystem model (StrathE2E2) for the North Sea with 18 broad functional groups, five resource pools, and representations of feeding, metabolism, reproduction, active migrations, advection, and mixing. Environmental driving data include temperature, irradiance, hydrodynamics, and nutrient inputs from rivers, atmosphere, and ocean boundaries, so the model is designed to evaluate rigorously top-down and bottom-up impacts and is ideal for looking at possible changes in energy flows and “big picture” ecosystem function. In this study we considered the impacts of warming (2 and 4°C) and various levels of fishing, by demersal and pelagic fleets, on the structure and function of the foodweb. A key aim is to demonstrate whether monitoring of broad ecosystem groups could assist in deciding whether GES was being achieved. We found that warming raised primary productivity and increased the size (total biomass) of the ecosystem. Warming raised metabolic demands on omnivorous zooplankton and reduced their abundance, thus favouring benthivorous and piscivorous demersal fish at the expense of planktivorous pelagic fish but otherwise had modest effects on energy pathways and top predators, whereas changes in fishing patterns could materially alter foodweb function and the relative outcomes for top predators. We suggest that GES should be defined in terms of an unfished state and that abundances of broad groupings and the balance between them can help to assess whether indicator outcomes were consistent with GES. Our findings underwrite the need for an ecosystem approach for the management of human activities supported by relevant monitoring. We also highlight the need to improve our basic understanding of bottom-up processes, improve their representation within models, and ensure that our ecosystem models can capture growth limitation by nitrogen and other elements, and not just food/energy uptake.

‘Biodiversity’ is one of the most common keywords used in environmental sciences, spanning from research to management, nature conservation and consultancy. Despite this, our understanding of the underlying concepts varies greatly, between and within disciplines as well as among the scientists themselves. Biodiversity can refer to descriptions or assessments of the status and condition of all or selected groups of organisms, from the genetic variability, to the species, populations, communities, and ecosystems. However, a concept of biodiversity also must encompass understanding the interactions and functions on all levels from individuals up to the whole ecosystem, including changes related to natural and anthropogenic environmental pressures. While biodiversity as such is an abstract and relative concept rooted in the spatial domain, it is central to most international, European and national governance initiatives aimed at protecting the marine environment. These rely on status assessments of biodiversity which typically require numerical targets and specific reference values, to allow comparison in space and/or time, often in association with some external structuring factors such as physical and biogeochemical conditions. Given that our ability to apply and interpret such assessments requires a solid conceptual understanding of marine biodiversity, here we define this and show how the abstract concept can and needs to be interpreted and subsequently applied in biodiversity assessments.

In Europe, and around the world, the approach to management of the marine environment has developed from the management of single issues (e.g. species and/or pressures) towards holistic Ecosystem Based Management that includes aims to maintain biodiversity and protect ecosystem functioning. Within the European Union, this approach is implemented through the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC). Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is required by the Directive in order to assess Good Environmental Status (GES). Ecological modeling has a key role to play within the implementation of the MSFD, as demonstrated here by case studies covering a range of spatial scales and a selection of anthropogenic threats. Modeling studies have a strong role to play in embedding data collected at limited points within a larger spatial and temporal scale, thus enabling assessments of pelagic and seabed habitat. Furthermore, integrative studies using food web and ecosystem models are able to investigate changes in food web functioning and biodiversity in response to changes in the environment and human pressures. Modeling should be used to: support the development and selection of specific indicators; set reference points to assess state and the achievement of GES; inform adaptive monitoring programs and trial management scenarios. The modus operandi proposed shows how ecological modeling could support the decision making process leading to appropriate management measures and inform new policy.