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Purpose This paper aims to deliberate the significant impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It also discusses SMEs’ practical approaches to capitalise on the renewed opportunity in the new normal by expanding their businesses regionally and globally. This paper also discusses the tactical and strategic interventions SMEs need to take to charge forward. Design/methodology/approach The resource-based view of the firm (Barney, 1991) is used to explain how SMEs develop a sustainable competitive advantage in the new normal. The resource-based view focuses on the link between strategy and firm internal resources. Drawing from the resource-based view of the firm, internal analysis of the resources that are regarded as sources of competitive advantage controlled by the SMEs is imperative in today’s business environment. Based on the resource-based view theory, this paper focuses on reinventing SME’s strategies in the new normal to foster sustainability. Findings Post-COVID-19 pandemic, SMEs must essentially be dynamic, forward-looking and transformational in capturing the regional and global markets’ opportunities. They need to sharpen their internal competencies and realign their effective business strategy in seizing the vast opportunities in the international markets. Practical implications How SMEs respond to COVID-19 has important implications for subsequent performance in the new normal. This study focuses on the different potential SMEs’ reactions to COVID-19 and how their strategy affects SMEs performance and fosters sustainability in the new normal. Social implications The sustainability of SMEs is critical for the nation’s socio-economy. This study offers a holistic view of how SMEs respond to their challenges and help them choose the right business options. Originality/value This paper’s contents are solidly based on accumulated evidence, observation and critical arguments on the impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic that caused numerous challenges faced by the SMEs, with a specific focus on SMEs operating in Malaysia.

Purpose The current study is an examination of the effects of psychosocial safety climate on work engagement, organisational commitment and to mediate job resources in Malaysian research universities (RUs) during pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The population of this study consisted of full-time lecturers who work in Malaysian RUs at least a year. A sampling technique was used to select the respondents for this study. A total of 1,000 questionnaires were administered to respondents from 5 Malaysian RUs with 484 usable questionnaires were returned, giving a response rate of 48.4%. Findings The present study’s objective is to examine psychosocial safety climate’s (PSC) effect, job resources on work engagement and organizational commitment. The study also aims to test the mediating roles of job resources on PSC’s relationship, work engagement and organizational commitment. It is interesting to note that the relationship between PSC and work engagement was not significant. Research limitations/implications Although the present study had contributed to the existing literature, the present study’s result cannot be generalized. Suggestions for future research include an attempt to conduct a study over three-time points that looks at both the employee’s perspective, managerial perspective and organizational perspective within the workplace. All correlation and cross-sectional studies identified the need for a comprehensive three-wave study to examine the model’s longitudinal effects accurately. Practical implications The finding shown that university is suggested to apply higher PSC to allow their management discover more ways to increase the adequate job resources to support lecturers in RUs and in improving their work engagement and organizational commitment. Originality/value The integration of PSC in academicians of Malaysian RUs provides a novel perspective.

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of business process reengineering on organizational performance in the Malaysian electronics manufacturing industry during the coronavirus pandemic. It also studied the moderating effect of strategic thinking on the relationship between these two concepts. Design/methodology/approach Data of 103 samples are obtained from a survey of the electronics manufacturing companies listed in the Federation of Malaysia Manufacturers’ directory. Data is analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling. Findings The results show that business process reengineering dimensions, i.e. top management commitment, organizational readiness for change, information technology capabilities and people management have significant positive impacts on organizational performance; whereas organizational structure and other abovementioned dimensions were found to have a much stronger impact on organizational performance whilst strategic thinking exists in the organization. Practical implications As the studied firms have been affected by the pandemic, the results will be useful for managers of the firms in the Malaysian electronics manufacturing industry by highlighting the dimensions of business process reengineering that can have a positive and significant impact on the organizational performance and by advising them to incorporate strategic thinking. Originality/value The results extend the literature on business process reengineering dimensions, which impact organizational performance by empirically testing the relationship of those dimensions on the performance, with strategic thinking as a moderating variable in Malaysian electronics manufacturing companies. From the knowledge, studying strategic thinking as a moderator in the relationship between business process reengineering and organizational performance in electronics manufacturing companies in Malaysia is unique, especially during a global crisis, i.e. the pandemic.

Purpose The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) leaves Indian business teetering on the edge of survival. This paper aims to set out to assess the impact of the pandemic shocks on the small and medium business segments in India. The research also explores the strategies that potentially take the segments back to recovery and growth. Design/methodology/approach The findings draw on the perspectives of academic and business people, and the authors use linear and nonlinear regression modelling under three recovery scenarios to support our arguments. Findings Evidence suggests that the shocks to business are manifold and the severity of most of the issues will aggravate as the recovery prolongs. Practical implications The paper explains the rationale of realistic strategies and compares its effects across potent recoveries. The findings are useful for both academics and business and relates to the strategic decisions that would be taken by small and medium enterprises to expedite recovery from the crisis. Originality/value The research is unique in surveying the academics and entrepreneurs about the impact of COVID-19 on Indian business.

Purpose Concerned with the rising social, economic and technological disruption in the world, the impact of the technological disruption had a significant impact on the future of work and it has been tremendously increased in past five years. Further, with the rising uncertainties and COVID-19 in the picture, the trends suggested by earlier literature might not hold. The purpose of this paper is to understand the evolution of technology in the workplace in the past five years, how does it stand during COVID-19, will the trend continue in light of disruption caused by COVID-19, the impact of COVID-19 on the future of work. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses bibliometric techniques to identify the conceptual and intellectual structure of the studies. The programming language named after authors Robert and Ross (R) software and Biblioshiny were used to identify the structures and the themes underlying those structures, which further helped in forecasting the trends of the studies. Findings The paper shows the drastic evolution of the studies in past few years and different technologies implemented at the workplace in the same period. It further identified the influential papers, authors, journals in the area with an emphasis on the various collaboration network among authors and countries. It also paints a picture of the impact of COVID-19 on the future of work. The paper finally concluded with future directions for the emerging trends and themes in the area in aftermath of COVID-19. Originality/value This paper takes the microscopic view of the studies carried out in the past five years as during the past five years, the studies related to this topic have grown tremendously and accordingly many trends have been identified but with the COVID-19 pandemic in the picture, the trend is likely to get accelerated. This paper takes this view and identifies the trends in the future by identifying the themes based on periods and at different levels – organizational, managerial, individual.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to reveal the impact of dynamic managerial innovative capabilities on the competitive advantage (CA), financial performance (FP) and non-financial performance (NFP) of the health-care sector during the very turbulent Covid-19 pandemic period. The focus is on human behavior and personnel interaction in the hospitals that receive Covid-19 cases.Design/methodology/approachData for this research was collected from the medical sector in Lebanon. The authors approached 14 public hospitals and 60 private hospitals for the study and only 48 hospitals (total of 284 respondents) accepted to complete the survey and provide data using a structured questionnaire.FindingsThis study reveals the moderating impact of CA on the relationship between dynamic managerial innovative capabilities and the performance of the health-care sector. Based on 48 Lebanese health-care centers during the Covid-19 pandemic, the results of the structural equation modeling model indicate that dynamic managerial innovative practices positively impact on CA and NFP. The results also reveal that CA has a moderating effect on the relationship between dynamic managerial innovative practices and NFP.Practical implicationsThis study does not reveal any direct or indirect relationship between managerial capabilities and FP during the pandemic.Originality/valueAs the world deals with the Covid-19 pandemic, the health-care sector needs new approaches and methods for confronting the constantly evolving and turbulent environment. This study examines how health-care leaders are dealing with these dynamic challenges and tests a three-dimensional SEM model of dynamic managerial capabilities (sensing, seizing and reconfiguration) that impact CA.

Purpose Knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) firms focus on applying their expert knowledge to help solve the business problems of their clients: these clients confronted major new problems due to the COVID-19 pandemic and policy measures such as social distancing and travel restrictions, designed to reduce the rapid spread of the illness. Many KIBS were reliant upon extensive contact with clients, and within teams working on projects; they found their practices disrupted. This study aims to examine how KIBS are evolving to cope with both the sets of changes: those in their own operations, and those involving the emerging business problems of clients. Design/methodology/approach The main data sources are material contained in websites of a sample of leading firms in a range of KIBS sectors, and in media reports and other documentation of efforts to confront the pandemic. Findings The results indicate considerable efforts in KIBS to address emerging client problems, as well as to adapt their own practices. Their substantial role in confronting the pandemic and associated business difficulties has implications for future crises. KIBS are likely to be important players in shaping responses not only to future pandemics but also to the looming climate crisis. Originality/value The study demonstrates the growing role of KIBS and their “second knowledge infrastructure” in modern economies, exemplified by their role in the context of an emerging crisis.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the factors that caused The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) security regime to be ineffective in saving transnational drug smuggling, including the internalization of non-optimal values and norms of the ASEAN Drug-Free Declaration. Design/methodology/approach This study uses primary data and secondary data. Data analysis and observation are carried out simultaneously, where data are analyzed directly after it is obtained using descriptive analysis. Interactive data analysis is carried out at the initial step by collecting primary and secondary data. Data are analyzed inductively by drawing conclusions from data obtained from general views to specifics. Findings The development of ASEAN has led to the idea of “ASEAN Way,” namely, the ASEAN security forum to eliminate the use of force in maintaining relations between member countries through the dissemination of agreed values. Multilateral negotiations refer to the establishment of a negotiation regime at the ASEAN level that emphasizes the interests of ASEAN member countries in determining agreements relating to transnational drug crimes. There are several inhibiting factors in the negotiation process, namely, perception differences between ASEAN countries on the threat of drug smuggling in the Southeast Asia region and the differences of ASEAN leaders’ priorities and agenda. Originality/value The originality/authenticity of research is analyzing the factors that affect the ASEAN security system in transnational protection policies by using two models, namely, the international level negotiation model and one at the national level in the form of ratification of ASEAN international relations related to drug smuggling. At present, transnational crimes, especially drug smuggling, appear and pose a threat to national and international security. The object of this research is ASEAN international organizations in cases of transnational drug smuggling.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to focus on the leadership competencies of the Z generation (born after 1997) in the VUCA business environment. In today’s scenario, the business works differently than it used to previously. The young workforce wants not just to contribute their energy to the organisation but to their colleagues and themselves too, with the leading global sceneries. Design/methodology/approach An unstructured questionnaire was prepared by testing the reliability and validity of the data. Multiples linear regression analyses were used to derive results and to check whether the competencies are dependent on the VUCA skill sets. Entrepreneurial leadership, enabling leadership, operational leadership and architectural leadership are chosen to be the independent variables for this study. Findings The findings reveal that the dependability is on all the four factors for the VUCA business environment and hence the need is to practice the same in the organisation. Research limitations/implications The test has been done on a sample having 260 respondents. This study reveals data of the workspace environment only and not how Gen Z will behave to the conditions as individuals. Gender-perspective is not taken into account in this study. Practical implications The implications can be seen for the organisations’ understanding of how to deal with generation Z and empower them. The organisation-structure and processes that were developed previously will not be limited now just to making the organisations function but also impact self-development for Gen Z, the development that is focussed on work-teams of Gen Z and so the global market eventually. Originality/value The originality is in the variables that have been taken for this study. As the world is growing rapidly, the mind-set and the style in which the manager works are changing. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account what leadership style will affect the current business environment.

Purpose This paper aims to propose a new strategic foresight process that combines aspects from science fiction, speculative design and tools linked to organizational processes, first, to generate potential new services and products and, second, to reduce problems associated with the construction of low-impact and irrelevant scenarios for decision-making processes. As a new proposal, it invites reflection and debate. Design/methodology/approach After reviewing the literature on the key concepts that represent the essence of strategic foresight, as well as the traditional processes to reflect on the future, a proposal for a new hybrid, integrative foresight process that allows moving from imagination to the materialization of scenarios will be presented. Findings The new hybrid process makes evident the need to articulate strategic foresight with other areas of knowledge and management tools to build scenarios with greater impact on decision-making and greater added value from strategic foresight to organizational processes. Originality/value The proposed integrative model articulates tools that already exist, but the originality of the proposal lies in that there are no models that integrate science fiction, speculative design, and other organizational tools in a single process.

Purpose The literature on knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) shows them to be major innovators; this is confirmed with recent data, which the authors use to examine the various types of innovation that KIBS undertake. The implications for employment and work in highly innovative industries are important topics for analysis, not least because we are in a period where dramatic claims are being made as to the implications of new technologies for professional occupations. Thus, this paper aims to address major debates and conclusions concerning innovation patterns in KIBS and the evolving structures of professional and other work in these industries. Design/methodology/approach This essay combines literature review with presentation and discussion of statistics that throw light on the patterns of innovation that characterise KIBS. The authors also consider data that concern trends in the organisation of work in these industries; while the focus is mainly on KIBS firms, they also pay some attention to KIBS-like work in other sectors. Even though KIBS are distinctive industries in modern economies, these analyses can be related to more general studies of, and forecasts about, changes in work organisation. Findings The authors show that innovation patterns and employment structures vary substantially across different types of KIBS, with the distinction between technological, professional and creative KIBS proving to be useful for capturing these differences. The authors are also able to demonstrate important long- and medium-term trends in the structure and activities of the KIBS industries. In particular, data clearly demonstrate the increasing share of professional as against associate and clerical workers in most KIBS. Evidence also suggests that polarisation trends across the economy are mirrored, and in some cases amplified, in KIBS. The future prospects for employment in KIBS, and for professional work in particular, are seen to involve multiple factors, which together may bring about substantial change. Research limitations/implications The study involves literature review and industry-level statistical analysis. Future work would benefit from firm-level analysis and validation and explication of results via consultation with practitioners and users of KIBS. Some puzzling variations across countries and sectors will need to be explored with national and sectoral experts. Practical implications Research into KIBS activities, and their future, should make more use of the extensive statistics on employment and other structural features of the industries that have become available in recent years. KIBS firms and practitioners will need to take account of the forces for change that are liable to restructure their activities. Originality/value The literature on KIBS has been concentrated on a rather narrow range of issues, while analysis of the current contributions and future development of the industries requires attention to a wider range of topics. This paper suggests how these topics may be investigated and their implications explored and presents results of enquiries along these lines.

Purpose The great filter and an unfriendly artificial general intelligence might pose existential risks to humanity, but these two risks are anti-correlated. The purpose of this paper is to consider the implications of having evidence that mankind is at significant peril from both these risks. Design/methodology/approach This paper creates Bayesian models under which one might get evidence for being at risk for two perils when we know that we are at risk for at most one of these perils. Findings Humanity should possibly be more optimistic about its long-term survival if we have convincing evidence for believing that both these risks are real than if we have such evidence for thinking that only one of these perils would likely strike us. Originality/value Deriving implications of being greatly concerned about both an unfriendly artificial general intelligence and the great filter.

Purpose This paper aims to consider few cognitive and conceptual obstacles to engagement with global catastrophic risks (GCRs). Design/methodology/approach The paper starts by considering cognitive biases that affect general thinking about GCRs, before questioning whether existential risks really are dramatically more pressing than other GCRs. It then sets out a novel typology of GCRs – sexy vs unsexy risks – before considering a particularly unsexy risk, overpopulation. Findings It is proposed that many risks commonly regarded as existential are “sexy” risks, while certain other GCRs are comparatively “unsexy.” In addition, it is suggested that a combination of complexity, cognitive biases and a hubris-laden failure of imagination leads us to neglect the most unsexy and pervasive of all GCRs: human overpopulation. The paper concludes with a tentative conceptualisation of overpopulation as a pattern of risking. Originality/value The paper proposes and conceptualises two new concepts, sexy and unsexy catastrophic risks, as well as a new conceptualisation of overpopulation as a pattern of risking.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explain to readers how intelligent systems can fail and how artificial intelligence (AI) safety is different from cybersecurity. The goal of cybersecurity is to reduce the number of successful attacks on the system; the goal of AI Safety is to make sure zero attacks succeed in bypassing the safety mechanisms. Unfortunately, such a level of performance is unachievable. Every security system will eventually fail; there is no such thing as a 100 per cent secure system. Design/methodology/approach AI Safety can be improved based on ideas developed by cybersecurity experts. For narrow AI Safety, failures are at the same, moderate level of criticality as in cybersecurity; however, for general AI, failures have a fundamentally different impact. A single failure of a superintelligent system may cause a catastrophic event without a chance for recovery. Findings In this paper, the authors present and analyze reported failures of artificially intelligent systems and extrapolate our analysis to future AIs. The authors suggest that both the frequency and the seriousness of future AI failures will steadily increase. Originality/value This is a first attempt to assemble a public data set of AI failures and is extremely valuable to AI Safety researchers.

Purpose This study aims to assess progress toward achieving international (United Nations’) goals and targets for attaining sustainable development and discuss the risks of worldwide failure. Design/methodology/approach The authors highlight the relationship between global goals/targets and governance, relate this to the concept of sustainable development, outline and compare Millennium Development Goals and their successors, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and lastly view SDG implementation from two major spaces i.e. the governance and science space, respectively. Findings Governance and culture as new components of sustainable development may be sine qua non for humanity’s transformative action toward global and just sustainable development. Through fostering informed decision and policymaking, modern science, as sketched in this contribution, should provide the framework for realizing Agenda 2030. Earth System Science and its innovative notions such as the Anthropocene, planetary boundaries, tipping points and tipping elements will be key in the process of “designing” blank a sustainable future of and for Homo sapiens. Originality/value This essay proposes developing holistic approaches to cooperate at all levels in urgent efforts to meet goals projected for 2030 and 2050. The complexity and functioning of the governance space, comprising a system of governance systems, is illustrated not only in the diversity of the institutional landscape but in particular through the blurring of all scales – local to global.

Purpose Firms engaged in international business necessarily make predictions about the business environments in which they operate or seek to enter, on the basis of which they make a number of strategic decisions. The purpose of this paper is to consider the difficulties there are in making accurate predictions and how the process might be improved. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines predictions made in 2007 by ‘China experts’ about what the Chinese business environment would look like in 2017. Their predictions were accurate in respect of around two-thirds of the issues they were asked to consider. This paper focuses on the one-third of issues about which they were wide of the mark and examine the likely reasons. Findings The predictions of the 2007 study were accurate in respect of around two-thirds of the issues the China experts on the Delphi panel were asked to consider. The reason that they were wide of the mark on about one-third of issues could be attributed to two main factors: the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis and the appointment in 2013 of Xi Jinping as the President of China. These events precipitated changes in direction in the Chinese business environment that had not been (and could not have been) anticipated by the Delphi panel. Originality/value Very few Delphi studies have been subject to a follow-up examination of the accuracy of their predictions. This paper contributes a discussion the various methodologies that firms can use to improve their forecasts of international business environments.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to research the latest quantitative and qualitative transformations of money and its interaction with the market economy and societies in terms of their influence on the inner nature of money and its transformation from a simple tool to an aim per se, i.e. postmoney. Transforming the perception of the intrinsic value and “soul” of the money into the postmoney, influenced by the rising longevity and wide expectation for the ability to scientifically prolong the human life, will be discussed. This transformation will be confirmed by analysing the results from a national representative sociological survey (panel study with sample size n = 1,000). Design/methodology/approach The author uses the following philosophical methodological approaches – comparative-constructive, phenomenological, cognitive and deconstructive analysis. Findings The objective and qualitative reasons offered by the postmoney theory (PMT) for the transformation of money into postmoney, are related to the being of temporality, as well as to technologization and the sixth factor of production, scientific exponentiality and mental changes in the human being. A current postmoney survey gives a strong base to believe that the perception of an intrinsic value of postmoney changes the shape of a value function – from logarithmic to linear or even stochastic. This is the reason to believe that increasing of a postmoney quantity will lead to a qualitative transformation and psychological increase of postmoney sensitivity. Research limitations/implications The author intends to expand the postmoney survey on the international level so to confirm local findings. Practical implications Postmoney survey might be used as a powerful tool in creating and legalizing non-monistic money based on blockchain technologies and philosophical and socio-economic research of the postmoney issue. Social implications The future of money is of great importance for the exponentiality of the socio-economic environment and societies. Social impact of the money will be inevitably rising in the domain of postmoney perception. Originality/value The author of the current paper coined for the first-time notion of postmoney and now is expanding research developing PMT. As per the best knowledge of the author, shape of the curve of value function was not questioned and believes it might be of help to better understand the money phenomenon.

PurposeThe paper aims to “re-use” the Open Government Data (OGD) published by the Election Commission of India (ECI). Bihar’s performance across General Elections, 2014, and Bihar Legislative Assembly Elections, 2015, is compared, wherein the role of contestants’ demographic profiles in determining their vote share is being investigated.Design/methodology/approachHypotheses are derived based on the impact of contestants’ demographic profiles (age, marital status, social category, political party affiliation, educational qualification, availing telephone and email facility, criminal antecedents) on their vote share. Following a quantitative approach, multiple regression and logistic regression are used to draw inferences from the data contestants’ affidavits – sourced from the ECI website.FindingsResults show that contestants’ demographic profiles impact their vote share in the elections. While the ECI website is a viable source for re-using the data available there, data are not available in a user-friendly format and this leads to difficulty in being re-used by different stakeholders.Originality/valueAcademic research on OGD re-use is negligible, and the present study seeks to contribute towards extant literature by underlining the significance of re-using OGD by drawing inferences from the data accessible via ECI.

Purpose Strategy and organizational culture are indispensable for success within a business. Both behavioral scientists and practitioners have shown keen interest in understanding the association between culture and strategy; however, no strong consensus has been formed about this relationship. This paper aims to shed light on this relationship by answering the following questions: Is organizational culture separable from its strategies? Is there an association between organizational culture and strategy? Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of 496 service managers, this study empirically examines the relationship between culture and strategy. Due to the nature of the data, cross-tabulation research method was used for analysis and to check the association between organizational culture and strategy. Findings Results indicate that successful firms with a bureaucratic and innovative culture may demonstrate any of the four examined strategies (command, rational, transactive and generative). The results also suggest that successful firms with a supportive culture will likely use a transactive or generative strategy. Overall, the results found that all four strategies are associated with each of the three corporate cultures, except for the supportive culture-command strategy and supportive culture-rational strategy dyads. Originality/value There are diverse views about the organizational culture-strategy relationship; however, no strong consensus has been formed about this relationship. Using managerial data collected from service industry, this study examines the relationship between three organizational cultures, namely, bureaucratic, supportive and innovative, and four different types of strategies, namely, specially command, rational, transactive and generative.

Purpose The paper aims to present the results of the first Russian pilot study on technological level of organisations upon the answers of 2,500 respondents out of nine sectors of economy to a broad specialised questionnaire. The purpose of the study is to assess the technological level of organisations on the basis of qualitative information that comprehensively reflects its most important characteristics, as well as identify factors that affect the technological level of production. Design/methodology/approach It offers a look at which methodological approaches were developed and what the survey shows on characteristics of the application of technology (the scope and extent of the application, level of technology, the problems solved by applying specific types of technology) and the application of intellectual property rights. Findings The paper also highlights some interesting findings that suggest that the majority of national organisations tend to pursue technological self-sufficiency strategies and quite a large part of them are not active in either domestic or foreign Science & Tecnology markets. Originality/value An originality lies in the proposed methodological approaches of the study, in the selected indicators of progressivity and the scale of application of technology related to the level of production capacities of the surveyed medium and large enterprises and organisations. This identifies significant incentives for organisations to increase their technology level as well as competitive advantages for the respondents themselves and for their competitors.

Purpose Studying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing with new millennium challenges. To propose policy recommendations about further S&T foresight programs in Iran, this paper aims to propose a three-phase process to study historical S&T foresight activities at national and sub-national level since 2005 to 2015, to analyze the state of selected activities to discover weaknesses and potential solutions and, finally, to provide strategies and tactics to improve further S&T foresight activities through an expert-based process. Design/methodology/approach This paper provides a three-stage methodology, designed to survey Iranian historical foresight practices (study) using scoping framework equipped with additional features, diagnosis and evaluating (analyze) and finally proposing recommendations to organize and implement more efficient further foresight practices (design) to initialize further practices in developing countries such as Iran. Findings Although concerns about future and the importance of foresight activities are raised however Iranian foresight community needs to be developed. As noted in Section 5, Iranian foresight facilitators and specialist are biased to limited methodologies and methods; therefore, creating foresight networks and developing communities is strongly recommended. Research limitations/implications The main constraint of this research was lack of valid data in the case of some Iranian S&T foresight programs. Originality/value Iran as a developing country needs to plan for long-run programs; however, there is no integrated study which reviews and analyzes the previous attempts to dedicate insights about how to reframe existing foresight paradigms. As foresight practices facilitate the paths toward sustainability, analyzing and diagnosis of a series of foresight practices in a devolving country may initialize designing such efforts in less developed world.

Purpose This paper aims to depict how the state of inverted totalitarianism is emerging in post-postnormal times and illustrate how it shares many of the same features of the totalitarianism depicted in the novels Brave New World (A. Huxley) and 1984 (G. Orwell). It also shows how a “way forward” is possible through a paradigmatic reorientation of “well-being” and “happiness”. Design/methodology/approach The research is based on literature within the field of futures studies, as well as relevant sources outside the futures field. It applies R Slaughter’s critical futures and F Polak’s method of social critique and reconstruction in its analysis of the state of inverted totalitarianism in post postmodern times. Findings It finds that the technological society and the US empire (with its attendant corporatocracy, Panopticon and PAC man values) in post-postnormal times is drifting toward a state of inverted totalitarianism, which is remarkably beginning to resemble Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World and G. Orwell’s 1984. Research limitations/implications The research is an essay and conceptual paper, so it is limited by its conceptual, philosophical nature and the author’s interpretation of social phenomena. It could also include the latest research on the role that the manipulation of internet algorithms plays in the state of inverted totalitarianism. It could also include more reconstructive details. Practical implications Sheer consciousness of the state of inverted totalitarianism and the need for social reconstruction should lead to a reevaluation of the meaning of the good society and how to realize it. Social implications Social critique and reconstruction are essential to the survival of any given society or civilization, as the groundwork for the emergence of wise foresight. The creative minority of a civilization must understand its predicament, the nature of its civilizational crisis, before it can even begin to understand and meet the challenge of the future. Originality/value The paper presents post-postnormal times as the back drop through which a state of inverted totalitarianism is emerging – a social dystopia that resembles the dystopias depicted in the novels, Brave New World and 1984. Inverted totalitarianism is shown to be an outgrowth of the technological society and the American empire (a corporatocracy and Panopticon increasingly global in nature). Freedom from this emerging totalitarianism begins with the realization of its existence and its given assumptions about the meaning of life and the pursuit of happiness. The paper also posits social critique and reconstruction (as well as critical futures) as a fundamental method to deconstruct and reconstruct the paradigm that supports inverted totalitarianism.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between foresight and official statistics in the context of sustainability and big-data. The aim is to draw ideas, guidance and lessons on how foresight could help national and international statistical offices deal with an increasingly turbulent and demanding environment. Design/methodology/approach The paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities posed by big data and sustainability for official statistics. Findings Drawing on the analysis of the BOHEMIA study – a foresight study launched by the European Commission to support its future policy for research and innovation – the paper proposes elements that could form a foresight programme for statistical offices. Originality/value Statistical offices and foresight have been worlds apart. The need to engage with each other is a recent and interesting phenomenon.

Purpose Various theoretical studies were carried out which attempted to identify impacting factors of cultural changes; however, these studies ignored the correlation among other affecting factors all together. In this paper, the authors aim not only to discuss the hidden layers that trigger the cultural changes but also to answer the questions of how to identify the main factors in each layer based on casual layered analysis (CLA), which could have a strong impact in shaping other layers’ factors? What are the dominant metaphors and worldviews that human beings are telling themselves about our universe that influences the future cultural changes? Design/methodology/approach To answer the questions of “how to identify the main factors in each layer,” the CLA methodology was used to investigate the underlying reasons. CLA takes into account four layers (litany, social systems, dominant discourse and worldviews and metaphors), which could be a tremendous help in identifying the mentioned factors. Findings The analysis shows that there are some contributing factors such as economy, technology, politics, society, environment, mass media, globalization and migration at the second layer – “social systems layer” – which may trigger cultural changes in first layer “litany”; in addition, in the third and deeper layer two dominant worldviews – materialist/secular and religious affecting the contributing factors in the second layer – were identified. Such worldviews are, in turn, supported by metaphors or perfect stories/myths of the deepest layer. Originality/value It can be concluded that because the cultural changes as a reality is composed of different layers, it is important to dig into different layers of reality to comprehend the significant shaping factors of that reality to visualize and make the better future.

Purpose This paper raises a question of how to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity. Among the various assessments of foresight activity, the author explores how to develop and assess an individual’s abilities in relation to foresight activity. More specifically, the author suggests a possible metric for assessing how foresight activity can help individuals cultivate self-efficacy toward postulated futures. This paper aims to propose that researchers and practitioners working in foresight can leverage the concept of self-efficacy toward futures to develop a method of evaluating foresight activities on an individual level. Design/methodology/approach To assess the concept of self-efficacy toward futures, this research identifies the factors that could create a possible metric of self-efficacy with respect to various futures on an individual level. For this study, citizens living in Korea participated in a futures studies program, where the author measured and analyzed to what extent participatory foresight activities could help these individuals perceive their own self-efficacy toward futures. The changes in the participants’ attitudes were measured by conducting the survey before and after the program. Findings Based on the literature review and a survey, the author crafted a potential self-efficacy in relation to a scale of futures, which consists of four subscales: an ability to shape new meanings, an ability to challenge the status quo, an ability to make a decision and put it into action and an ability to learn something new by cooperating with others. These abilities are believed to be relevant elements to prepare for, adapt to and evolve with social changes. This paper also uses the possible metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity in Korea and argues that foresight activity helps Korean individuals perceive self-efficacy toward postulated futures. Originality/value Researchers attempted to answer the question of what foresight activities are generally useful to laypersons. The author proposes that perceiving self-efficacy toward futures is one of the efficacies that foresight pursues. The author endeavors to create a metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight attempts to identify which capabilities can be developed through participation in foresight activities.

Purpose The substantial growth in literature on knowledge-intensive business services (KIBSs) has thrown light on their contributions to innovation and innovation systems. This paper is the first of a set that examines major debates and conclusions to have emerged from this growing body of evidence. Design/methodology/approach This is a review essay, which also presents relevant statistics. It addresses definitional issues and controversies, and sets out basic trends and characteristics of the KIBS industries. The focus is mainly on KIBS firms, though the production of similar services in other types of organisation is also considered. Findings Many of the conclusions of an earlier (2005) review in this journal remain valid, though difficulties in capturing these activities in official statistics mean that there are many issues that demand closer inspection. Understanding the role and future prospects of KIBS will also require looking beyond the literature that focuses just on KIBS industries. Research limitations/implications This study involves literature review and statistical analysis. Future work would benefit from involvement of practitioners and users of KIBS. Practical implications More explicit consideration of KIBS in statistical frameworks is still required, and novel approaches to data conceptualisation and production should be explored. Originality/value The growing literature on KIBS, and its implications for understanding the roles and future development of the firms and their relationships to innovation systems, requires systematic analysis. Available statistics have been brought together, and this paper also reflects critically on the trajectories of research on these topics.

Purpose This paper aims to analyze forecasting problems from the perspective of information extraction. Circumstances are studied under which the forecast of an economic variable from one domain (country, industry, market segment) should rely on information regarding the same type of variable from another domain even if the two variables are not causally linked. It is shown that Granger causality linking variables from different domains is the rule and should be exploited for forecasting. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies information economics, in particular the study of rational information extraction, to shed light on the debate on causality and forecasting. Findings It is shown that the rational generalization of information across domains can lead to effects that are hard to square with economic intuition but worth considering for forecasting. Information from one domain is shown to affect that from another domain if there is at least one common factor affecting both domains, which is not (or not yet) observed when a forecast has to be made. The analysis suggests the theoretical possibility that the direction of such effects across domains can be counter-intuitive. In time-series econometrics, such effects will show up in estimated coefficients with the “wrong” sign. Practical implications This study helps forecasters by indicating a wider set of variables relevant for prediction. The analysis offers a theoretical basis for using lagged values from the type of variable to be forecast but from another domain. For example, when forecasting the bond risk spread in one country, introducing in the time-series model the lagged value of the risk spread from another country is suggested. Two empirical examples illustrate this principle for specifying models for prediction. The application to risk spreads and inflation rates illustrates the principles of the approach suggested here which is widely applicable. Originality/value The present study builds on a probability theoretic analysis to inform the specification of time-series forecasting models.

Purpose With intelligence (a field related to foresight) practice growing, the purpose of this study was to examine the practices of Canadian competitive intelligence (CI) practitioners. Design/methodology/approach Survey of Canadian CI practitioners who are SCIP members (Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professional), using a revision to a previously used instrument designed to examine competitive intelligence practices. Findings Canadian SCIP member competitive intelligence practices seem to be more formalized than those found in the global SCIP study in 2006 with 84.8 per cent having a manager with CI responsibilities, 61 per cent with a formal centralized CI unit and only 9 per cent responding that CI was done informally. Intelligence units were generally smaller with 38 per cent having one full-time CI resource and 41 per cent having between 2 and 4 full-time resources. Additional findings on information sources used, analytical techniques used, evaluation methods and communication methods are reported. Research limitations/implications Despite getting responses from close to 50 per cent of SCIP members, the small sample size (79) makes it difficult to generalize the results beyond the Canadian SCIP environment and limits the testing that can be done. Originality/value The last study on Canadian competitive intelligence practices was in 2008, thus part of the originality of the study was getting more recent information on corporate intelligence practice. In addition, this is the first Canadian study to focus specifically on known intelligence practitioners (SCIP members). Past studies focused on companies in general regardless of whether respondents knew what competitive intelligence was or practiced CI.

Purpose This paper aims to explore FinTech and its dynamic transitions in the banking industry. In particular, the study analyses the systemic innovation nature of FinTech-based innovations. The main contribution of this research study is the development of systemic innovation model which can be used as a dynamic tool to track the progress and pattern of technology development and diffusion. The research also discusses the latest financial innovation of PromptPay FinTech – the e-payment system in Thailand. Design/methodology/approach This research uses the case study approach to analyse the systemic innovation characteristics of FinTech-based innovations. This research offers a new systemic innovation model which is developed and can be used as a dynamic tool to track the progress and pattern of technology development and diffusion. The study uses FinTech-based innovations as case study samples to gain a better understanding concerning the systemic characteristics and the pattern of technology diffusion under the analytical framework of systemic innovation model. This research involves qualitative interviews with five major commercial banks in the financial services industry of Thailand. Findings The analyses of findings show the systemic characteristics of FinTech-based innovations in the banking industry, both at a global scale and Thailand case. The analyses have shown that systemic characteristics of the innovation process are the outcome of interactions between the complexity of the innovation and the capabilities of innovators in managing the innovation. The insightful implications on the systemic nature of innovation give the trend and direction of FinTech-based innovation development in the banking industry. Originality/value The main contribution which shows originality and value of this paper is the development of systemic innovation model. This research study develops a systemic innovation model to analyse the systemic characteristics which can be applied to all innovations in any industry. The model can also help track the progress and pattern of technology development and diffusion. Therefore, the model can be used to project the trend and diffusion of innovation competition in the banking industry.

PurposeWith an increasing thrust upon transparency and accountability in government, e-government platforms are being scaled in many countries to bolster trust of the citizens and to bring about efficiency in public service delivery. Recently, India launched its “Digital India” initiative as an e-government measure. This study aims to gauge respondents’ perceptions regarding corruption in public services post-launch of the “Digital India” initiative.Design/methodology/approachA survey was conducted via email, soliciting inputs from 217 respondents following a convenience sampling technique in selected districts of India. Using an institutional theory lens, this study uses a quantitative approach where correlations and hierarchical regression analysis inform the overall analysis.FindingsThe results showed that low transparency, high cost incurred in availing public services, inefficiency in government and favoritism in government are the key determinants that influenced the perception of users about corruption in e-government services. Also, one demographic variable, namely, gender, showed a statistically significant relationship with the perception of corruption in e-government services.Originality/valueHitherto, extant literature is replete with conceptual and theoretical studies on the impact of e-government initiatives on curbing corruption, and there is negligible empirical research in developing countriesvis-à-visthis dimension – the present study seeks to fill this gap. Second, previous research has not used the institutional theory to investigate the efficacy of e-government initiatives; this study uses the framework of the institutional theory framework to substantiate the arguments.

Purpose To define strategic directions for the Russia’s social, economic, scientific and technological development in 2011-2013, a large-scale foresight study including the deep analysis of prospects of biotechnology development there was undertaken (Russia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight). This paper aims to present results of this research. Design/methodology/approach The study was based on a combination of technology-push and market-pull approaches that aimed not only to identify most promising science and technology (S&T) areas but also to understand how they can be realized in practice. Representatives from federal authorities, science and business were involved in the project to create future visions of technological directions; analyze grand challenges, weak signals and wild cards; and set research and development (R&D) priorities. Findings According to results of the study, Russia has a potential for biotech sector development, although the level of R&D in the majority of areas is lagging behind that in the USA and leading EU countries. However, there are several advanced applied research areas where efforts can be focused. Among them are high-performance genomics and post-genomics research platforms, systems and structural biology, microbial metabolic engineering, plant biotechnology and microbial strains and consortia for development of symbiotic plant–microbial communities. Originality/value Concentration of available resources of government and business on biotechnological sector development can help to find answers for challenges that Russia faces today or will face tomorrow. It will help to pick up on the current level of research activities, improve the quality of personnel training, make this area the engine of the economy and carry out the so-called new industrialization of the country, building a new, high-tech device industry.

Purpose The aim of this paper is to present results of a foresight study on identifying priorities for health-related research and development (R&D) in Russia for the period until 2030. Design/methodology/approach Research priorities were identified through consistent integrated expert analysis and evaluation of the subject area, i.e. biomedical research preceding development of medical technologies. Findings Key global and national trends in the biomedical R&D sector and related areas (medicine and health) were identified. According to the experts, the following markets have the best prospects for Russia: regenerative medicine, biodegradable and other biocompatible materials, diagnostic systems, implants, surgical equipment, targeted delivery systems and non-invasive visualisation systems. Entering these markets requires providing support to R&D in the following areas: promising drug candidates, molecular diagnostics, molecular profiling and mechanisms of human diseases, cell technologies (therapies), new materials (biomimetics and other), bioelectronic, bioimaging and biosensors and human genome databases. Practical implications Regularly updating research priorities is a necessary prerequisite of successful science and technology development of countries, innovative companies and academic institutions. Allocation of (always limited) financial resources on the basis of such priority-setting exercises’ results is evidence of adherence to scientific planning principles. Combined with monitoring and evaluation tools, priority setting for biomedical R&D must become an integral component of Russia’s innovation policy. Originality/value This is a first-ever presentation of Russian experience in setting research priorities for the health-related sphere. Global and national contexts for development of biomedical R&D are described; markets and research areas with the biggest potential for Russian companies are identified.

Purpose This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on Russia. As the trends are validated, an algorithm is proposed to assess the contribution of separate trends to Russian energy exports. Findings Experimental quantitative scenarios are conducted to assess the prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040 under the given exogenous scenario calculations of the IEA. Factor analysis allows for an assessment of the contribution of separate factors in dynamics of net energy imports into the regional economies. The future prospects for fossil fuels’ exports on regional markets are considered. Priority markets for Russian energy exporters are identified. Practical implications The results of the paper may be used by decision-makers for adjustments in the system of government policy or corporate strategy. Originality/value The paper provides an algorithm to assess energy export flows to macroregions based upon the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative information. Experimental scenario calculations of the Russian fossil fuels’ exports are provided. Strategic decision-making map is elaborated.

Purpose This paper aims to explore surprising facets of consumer delight behavior. The study is the empirical juncture of three studies based on consumer survey on the Indian television market. Study 1 traces the existence of greenies in India among brownies prevailing around the globe by using the surprise-delight model. Study 2 is a pre-intervention research design confirming greenies preferences to television attributes such as screen technology, annual energy cost saving, screen resolution, screen size and free gifts. Study 3 signifies a price intervention design by allowing customers to include their preference by replacing the annual energy cost saving with price. Design/methodology/approach This paper is a harvest of studies based on discriminant analysis for identifying green and brown customers and a two-level conjoint analysis for identifying attributes contributing to green behavior. Findings The empirical generalization of a study comes out with unique findings of the greenies and brownies and their preference and attitude toward green attribution and substitution. A “preferential green shift” appeared as a vital output owing to knowledge–attitude–practice from these consecutive studies. This gap exists because of the price factor. The authors suggest the measures for improvement in product offering by targeting and positioning green products from the findings and the preferential green shift. Research limitations/implications Future research may focus on other segments of products such as automobiles, i.e. cars. Despite the availability of the non-probabilistic sampling technique, the probabilistic sampling technique can be used. Finally, a larger sample size could have given a better generalization of results. Originality/value The gap in knowledge–attitude–practice was evident. This gap was caused by the presence of “price” concern. The study revealed that heavy consumer durable buyers are aware of the benefit of green, but the reality of price cannot be ignored and finally make a purchasing decision on the basis of price criteria. Hence price is recommended as another criterion to be considered in the technology acceptance models.

Purpose This paper attempts to apply complex theory in futures studies and addresses prediction challenges when the system is complex. The purpose of the research is to design a framework to engineer the futures in complex systems where components are divers and inter-related. Relations cannot be interpreted by cause and effect concept. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors shaped a conceptual framework based on engineering, complex theory and uncertainty. To extract tacit knowledge of experts, an online questionnaire was developed. To validate the proposed framework, a workshop method was adapted with NetLogo simulation. Findings Opinion of participants in the workshop which is collected through quantitative questionnaire shows that the framework helps us in understanding and shaping scenarios. Harnessing the complexity in developing the futures was the main objective of this paper with the proposed framework which has been realized based on the experience gained from the workshop. Originality/value Iterative processes are very important to harness the complexity in systems with uncertainty. The novelty of the research is a combination of engineering achievements in terms of computation, simulation and applying tools with futures studies methods.

Purpose This paper aims at analysing the relationship between anticipation and public administration based on a case study focusing on a specific public agency in charge of knowledge production for policymaking. Design/methodology/approach It is based on a case study methodology: anticipatory practices of a public organisation are critically assessed based on data that originates from public documents and from participant observation within the concerned agency. Findings Several dimensions impact the interrelation between anticipation and public administration. First, the organisational set-up is decisive in fostering the development of specific type of anticipatory activities. Second, it confirms a common finding that policymakers are oftentimes more interested in ready-to-use results than in processes of future thinking. And third, it shows that distinctive anticipatory practices can rely on very different networks and, therefore, have different degree of maturity. Research limitations/implications The use of a case study, unfortunately, may lead to a lack of generalisability. The authors therefore encourage researchers to test their propositions further. Originality/value Nevertheless, the originality of the paper is its central focus on anticipation within public administration – a topic that has not received much attention or study by academics or researchers. Anticipatory practices have been studied at a more general level, but not necessarily in particular public sector environments, which also have their own particular constraints.

Purpose This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into the public administration system and, specifically, into the national strategic planning system. Design/methodology/approach To do so, the authors fall back on more than 10 years of experience in performing foresight exercises for Russian policy makers of their institution. Findings Thereby, the paper highlights the implications arising from the interaction between sectoral and national components of TFS and on application of the results of foresight studies (implemented within the framework of TFS) for the strategic planning. Originality/value Russia has a long history of technological planning and forecasting and engages regularly in extensive foresight activities of both national and sectoral relevance. Also, Russia’s leadership repeatedly stresses the importance of such foresight activities which are outlined by a national law since 2014.

Purpose The purpose of this practice-oriented paper is to look at a recent, late-phase development in public administration (PA) reform in Romania, specifically the drafting of the recently adopted national Strategy on Strengthening the Efficiency of Public Administration (2014-2020). In particular, the paper focuses on the opportunities and limits of outsourcing the building of the vision underlying the strategy and the prioritization of strategic objectives. The article’s story is also placed in the broader context of agencification literature and, more specifically, the involvement of executive agencies in policymaking. Design/methodology/approach The paper describes the vision-building exercise, developed according to a script already tested in several sectoral strategy-making processes, and the objectives and procedure of the online participatory consultation by using an adapted real-time Delphi format (similarly tested in the recent past). Findings The paper reports on the ways in which the output of the visioning process and of online consultations may be used to enhance a strategic process already underway. Originality/value PA reform in post-communist countries has been among the most hotly debated, intensely pursued, yet seemingly elusive policy objectives of the transition and post-transition periods. Among pre-accession and then European Union (EU) member states, the need to get in and then to get involved in European policymaking provided some impetus for such reforms and also set substantial constraints, without however always adding much predictability or significantly streamlining the public sector. The paper contributes to this debate by proving an innovative method of devising a reform strategy by outsourcing the strategy-building process to an agency with the necessary know-how and experience.

Purpose This paper aims at assessing the impacts of the national cluster policy, cluster age, cluster development benchmarks of neighbouring regions and the cumulative level of regional innovative capacity on the quantity and quality of cluster initiatives in Russia. Design/methodology/approach Hypotheses’ testing was carried out by a series of calculations comparing the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of cluster initiatives; the number of new cluster initiatives to the number of neighbouring regions, where cluster initiatives had begun to develop earlier; and ranks of regions within the Russian regional innovation scoreboard to the quantity and quality characteristics of cluster initiatives therein. Findings The results of the study empirically confirm that the national cluster policy significantly influenced the emergence and advancement of cluster initiatives in Russia. The proximity to the regions, having previously launched cluster support programmes, also had an impact on the emergence of new cluster initiatives. The cluster initiatives’ age had an ambiguous effect on their performance. Finally, the level of regional innovative capacity was correlated only with the number of cluster initiatives localised therein. Practical implications The findings show that along with the direct effects of the national cluster policy for the government-supported clusters, there are positive externalities, e.g. the emergence of new cluster initiatives throughout the country. Originality/value The research database of 277 cluster initiatives has been drawn up as a part of the first national cluster mapping and covers almost a decade of clustering activity in Russia. The study analyses not only the cluster initiatives supported by the federal government but also those developed independently.

Purpose The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – “Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030”. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the author performs an ex post evaluation of the Foresight study. The methods used are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, interviews and expert panels, and performing a final SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of the Foresight study. Findings As a result of the study, the expediency, efficacy, process efficiency, quality, impact and process improvement of the National S&T Foresight 2030 were assessed. Moreover, the SWOT for the National Foresight and its energy-related outcomes were identified. The National Foresight methodology and its outcomes are critically reviewed, and recommendations for their refinement are made. Research limitations/implications Future research on the topic may include subsequent ex ante and ex post evaluations of energy technology foresights that will include revised lists of technologies, given the rapidly changing energy markets, as well as an assessment of the integration of the study results in the energy and S&T policy documents. Practical implications The practical implications of the study are linked with turning the prospective R&D areas identified through the Foresight into state priorities for funding energy research. Energy companies may utilize the study results in their development plans and R&D strategies. Originality/value This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbons to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex post assessment of the study is made with implications for the future research.

Purpose This paper aims to present a categorization scheme and use it to classify Canadian Government (federal and provincial) competitive intelligence (CI) programs and to also look at the impact of these programs on sectoral and regional economic development. Design/methodology/approach Based on the author’s 25 years of experience designing, running, and studying Canadian Government CI programs, a classification scheme to classify these programs has been developed and used. Also, by using program review information, this paper looks at evidence for program impact on regional and sectoral economic development. Findings This paper identifies a broad range of federal and provincially sponsored CI programs aimed at helping both government officers and those outside the department make better decisions. The review identified several roles that the government can play in using CI: creator of CI (both for their own purposes and also for helping Canadian companies), CI environment skills builder (helping Canadian companies develop skills in developing their own CI) and CI partner (working jointly with Canadian companies in developing CI). While there have not been many formal program reviews of the CI programs sponsored by Canadian Government departments and agencies, anecdotal evidence (from training program participant evaluations) and a comprehensive review of a small community CI-based economic development program support positive sectoral and regional economic development results arising from these programs. Practical implications CI programs can be used as part of a government’s regional and sectoral economic development approach. CI can be used to assist with decision-making both within and outside the government. This paper identifies several different kinds of programs that can be used to further a government’s economic development agenda. Originality/value There are very few articles that examine how governments have helped companies to develop CI and how they have used CI, and none has looked at the impact of these on regional and sectoral economic development. This paper, based on the author’s experiences, provides a view of the Canadian programs and their impact on regional/sectoral economic development.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework to thinking and creating scenarios about future crimes and terror attacks relying on the Internet of Things (IoT), and to present a crowdsourcing research based on this thinking, which resulted in both high- and low-probability scenarios with dramatic impact. Design/methodology/approach The research relies on general morphological analysis for deconstructing wicked problems into core components, and on crowdsourcing 50 experts on Wikistrat’s commercial platform, allowing them to suggest core components, rank them by importance and develop scenarios together. This methodology allowed a wider view than usual, and allowed the experts to examine unorthodox combination of components, leading to the creation of wild-card scenarios. Findings Analysis of both the core components and the resulting scenarios indicates that the IoT is set to have a dramatic role in crime and terror attacks in the near future. High-impact high-probability scenarios include attacks on power plants, cyber wallets and personal assistants. High-impact low-probability scenarios include terrorist attacks by environmentalist groups, accidental attacks conducted by immature pranksters and having a computer worm propagating in a low-security but critical facility like a hospital. Originality/value This paper brings a standardized method which can be used to examine complex events like crime and terror attacks using a disruptive and emerging technology. The results can be used by practitioners to further study the issue and develop many other scenarios more tailored to their needs. The scenarios presented in this paper can also be of value to security bodies who wish to be better prepared for the future.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to map the outcomes of four influential South East Queensland city visioning and foresight initiatives conducted by the cities of Maroochy, Logan, Gold Coast and Brisbane. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies causal layered analysis to map the outcomes of four city visioning and foresight initiatives. Findings It is averred in this paper that cities need to map their experiences of past futures initiatives for what worked and what has resulted today, and for recommendations of futures actions and innovations. Originality/value This paper deepens the discussion about the critical features of the four initiatives by focusing on their outcomes and alternatives they could produce to influence the futures of their cities.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to show how scenario-based forecasting can give a better understanding of future commercial potential of a newly developed technology. This study aims to bridge the existing gaps in technology commercialization process for various projects supported under innovation support schemes in India. Design/methodology/approach The scope of this study is to understand the commercial potential and future deployment prospect of “sun direct hot water system (SDHWS)”. Scenarios have been drawn using “cone of plausibility” method and the commercial potential forecasted under different scenarios using arithmetic and linear regression forecasting tool. Findings The SDHWS is an incremental innovation but has great potential to overcome major constraints and barriers associated with existing solar water heater (SWH) technologies. Among the three scenarios drawn, plausible scenario is most likely to happen in future. The SDHWS is technically and economically capable of replacing existing conventional systems of SWHs. Research limitations/implications The study is limited to developing alternate qualitative scenarios and, further, an attempt to quantify the commercial potential. Various assumptions have been taken because of non-availability of past data on SDHWS technology. Originality/value Scenario-based forecasting to understand commercial potential for innovative technology is a new approach. The adoption of such insight and analysis would brighten the chance of SDHWS technology to reach the market.