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Tobacco smoking is a frequent habit sustained by > 1.3 billion people in 2020 and the leading preventable factor for health risk and premature mortality worldwide. In the forensic context, predicting smoking habits from biological samples may allow broadening DNA phenotyping. In this study, we aimed to implement previously published smoking habit classification models based on blood DNA methylation at 13 CpGs. First, we developed a matching lab tool based on bisulfite conversion and multiplex PCR followed by amplification-free library preparation and targeted paired-end massively parallel sequencing (MPS). Analysis of six technical duplicates revealed high reproducibility of methylation measurements (Pearson correlation of 0.983). Artificially methylated standards uncovered marker-specific amplification bias, which we corrected via bi-exponential models. We then applied our MPS tool to 232 blood samples from Europeans of a wide age range, of which 90 were current, 71 former and 71 never smokers. On average, we obtained 189,000 reads/sample and 15,000 reads/CpG, without marker drop-out. Methylation distributions per smoking category roughly corresponded to previous microarray analysis, showcasing large inter-individual variation but with technology-driven bias. Methylation at 11 out of 13 smoking-CpGs correlated with daily cigarettes in current smokers, while solely one was weakly correlated with time since cessation in former smokers. Interestingly, eight smoking-CpGs correlated with age, and one displayed weak but significant sex-associated methylation differences. Using bias-uncorrected MPS data, smoking habits were relatively accurately predicted using both two- (current/non-current) and three- (never/former/current) category model, but bias correction resulted in worse prediction performance for both models. Finally, to account for technology-driven variation, we built new, joint models with inter-technology corrections, which resulted in improved prediction results for both models, with or without PCR bias correction (e.g. MPS cross-validation F1-score > 0.8; 2-categories). Overall, our novel assay takes us one step closer towards the forensic application of viable smoking habit prediction from blood traces. However, future research is needed towards forensically validating the assay, especially in terms of sensitivity. We also need to further shed light on the employed biomarkers, particularly on the mechanistics, tissue specificity and putative confounders of smoking epigenetic signatures.

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data generated with microarray technologies have been used to solve murder cases via investigative leads obtained from identifying relatives of the unknown perpetrator included in accessible genomic databases, referred to as investigative genetic genealogy (IGG). However, SNP microarrays were developed for relatively high input DNA quantity and quality, while SNP microarray data from compromised DNA typically obtainable from crime scene stains are largely missing. By applying the Illumina Global Screening Array (GSA) to 264 DNA samples with systematically altered quantity and quality, we empirically tested the impact of SNP microarray analysis of deprecated DNA on kinship classification success, as relevant in IGG. Reference data from manufacturer-recommended input DNA quality and quantity were used to estimate genotype accuracy in the compromised DNA samples and for simulating data of different degree relatives. Although stepwise decrease of input DNA amount from 200 nanogram to 6.25 picogram led to decreased SNP call rates and increased genotyping errors, kinship classification success did not decrease down to 250 picogram for siblings and 1st cousins, 1 nanogram for 2nd cousins, while at 25 picogram and below kinship classification success was zero. Stepwise decrease of input DNA quality via increased DNA fragmentation resulted in the decrease of genotyping accuracy as well as kinship classification success, which went down to zero at the average DNA fragment size of 150 base pairs. Combining decreased DNA quantity and quality in mock casework and skeletal samples further highlighted possibilities and limitations. Overall, GSA analysis achieved maximal kinship classification success from 800-200 times lower input DNA quantities than manufacturer-recommended, although DNA quality plays a key role too, while compromised DNA produced false negative kinship classifications rather than false positive ones.Author SummaryInvestigative genetic genealogy (IGG), i.e., identifying unknown perpetrators of crime via genomic database-tracing of their relatives by means of microarray-based single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, is a recently emerging field. However, SNP microarrays were developed for much higher DNA quantity and quality than typically available from crime scenes, while SNP microarray data on quality and quantity compromised DNA are largely missing. As first attempt to investigate how SNP microarray analysis of quantity and quality compromised DNA impacts kinship classification success in the context of IGG, we performed systematic SNP microarray analyses on DNA samples below the manufacturer-recommended quantity and quality as well as on mock casework samples and on skeletal remains. In addition to IGG, our results are also relevant for any SNP microarray analysis of compromised DNA, such as for the DNA prediction of appearance and biogeographic ancestry in forensics and anthropology and for other purposes.