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This study predicted Salmonella outbreak risk from eating cooked poultry in various methods. The incidence of Salmonella in poultry meat and the environment from farm to home for consumption was investigated. To develop the predictive models, Salmonella growth data were collected at 4–25 °C during storage and fitted with the Baranyi model. The effects of cooking on cell counts in poultry meat were investigated. Temperature, duration, and consumption patterns were all searched. A simulation in @Risk was run using these data to estimate the probability of foodborne Salmonella disease. In farm, Salmonella was detected from only fecal samples (8.5%; 56/660). In slaughterhouses, Salmonella was detected from feces 16.0% (38/237) for chicken and 19.5% (82/420) for duck) and from carcasses of each step (scalding, defeathering, and chilling) by cross contamination. In chicken (n = 270) and duck (n = 205), Salmonella was detected in 5 chicken (1.9%) and 16 duck meat samples (7.8%). Salmonella contamination levels were initially estimated to be −3.1 Log CFU/g and −2.5 Log CFU/g, respectively. With R2 values between 0.862 and 0.924, the predictive models were suitable for describing the fate of Salmonella in poultry meat with of 0.862 and 0.924. The Salmonella was not detected when poultry meat cooks completely. However, if poultry meat contaminated with Salmonella were cooked incompletely, Salmonella remained on the food surface. The risk of foodborne Salmonella disease from poultry consumption after cooking was 3.0 × 10−10/person/day and 8.8 × 10−11/person/day in South Korea, indicating a low risk.