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This paper examines the effects of health-oriented food tax reforms on the distribution of tax payments, food demand and health outcomes. We offer an illustration of how one can take into account the uncertainty related to both demand estimation and health estimates and to produce confidence intervals for the overall health effects instead of only point estimates. Taxation of sugar could lead to a statistically significant reduction in both the incidence of type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease. The health effects appear to be most pronounced for low-income individuals, and the reforms may therefore reduce health inequality. This effect undermines the traditional regressivity argument against the heavy taxation of unhealthy food. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We estimate an AIDS for fresh meat in Germany. • We derive price and expenditure elasticities for households overall and by age and. income. • We assess ad valorem and excise tax scenarios to curb climate gas emissions. • Older households are more effected by meat taxes than young households. • Excise taxes are more efficient to reach carbon emission reductions This paper assesses the effect of different meat tax designs in Germany including increasing the value-added tax as well as two climate-gas-emission-sensitive excise tax scenarios. For the simulation study, we first estimate price and expenditure elasticities for fresh meat for different household types using data from the GfK ConsumerScan FreshFood panel over the period 2012–14. The estimated elasticities are used to derive budget and welfare effects for the tax scenarios. A general rise in the value-added tax from 7% to 19% leads to a welfare loss of 0.83 euros per household per month. Disentangling the effect by household group according to income and age shows that low-income and older households experience a higher welfare loss and bear a larger tax burden relative to their income compared to low-income and younger households, respectively. Comparing the different taxation scenarios highlights the comparative efficiency of excise taxes and the importance to consider effects on older households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Grocery taxes existed in more than one third of U.S. states in 2020. • States with grocery taxes or considering grocery taxes tend to have higher food insecurity. • Taxing groceries correlates with increases in food insecurity. • Taxing groceries on average at 4.2% increases the probability of low-income household food insecurity by 3.3%. • Policymakers should look at ways to lessen the burden of this tax on lower-income households. In the United States, grocery tax policy varies at both state and county levels, with 16 states having grocery taxes in 2020. Several states are engaged in active debates about whether to remove or impose such taxes. Although the extant literature evaluates multiple factors that may contribute to food insecurity, little is known about the relationship between grocery food sales taxes and food insecurity. We present county-level panel data on grocery taxes from 2006 through 2017 and find that jurisdictions with grocery taxes are among the most food insecure in the country. The regressiveness of grocery taxes exacerbates food insecurity, at least in theory. We link our tax data with county-level food insecurity measures and other data from the Current Population Survey. Treating grocery taxes as exogenous, we estimate that a one percentage point increase in grocery tax rates is associated with a 0.84% increase in the probability of being food insecure for low-income households. Using these estimates, we conduct policy simulations of grocery taxes that have been recently considered in six states and assess the potential impacts on food insecurity. One caveat is that our estimator may be biased towards or away from zero depending on whether increases in grocery taxes within counties over time are positively or negatively correlated with unobservables affecting food security. However, assuming the onset and removal of grocery taxes within a county are exogenous, our results show that proposed grocery taxes may exacerbate food insecurity by one to five percentage points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]