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Abstract Mean-variance portfolio optimization models are sensitive to uncertainty in risk-return estimates, which may result in poor out-of-sample performance. In particular, the estimates may suffer when the number of assets considered is high and the length of the return time series is not sufficiently long. This is precisely the case in the cryptocurrency market, where there are hundreds of crypto assets that have been traded for a few years. We propose enhancing the mean-variance (MV) model with a pre-selection stage that uses a prototype-based clustering algorithm to reduce the number of crypto assets considered at each investment period. In the pre-selection stage, we run a prototype-based clustering algorithm where the assets are described by variables representing the profit-risk duality. The prototypes of the clustering partition are automatically examined and the one that best suits our risk-aversion preference is selected. We then run the MV portfolio optimization with the crypto assets of the selected cluster. The proposed approach is tested for a period of 17 months in the whole cryptocurrency market and two selections of the cryptocurrencies with the higher market capitalization (175 and 250 cryptos). We compare the results against three methods applied to the whole market: classic MV, risk parity, and hierarchical risk parity methods. We also compare our results with those from investing in the market index CCI30. The simulation results generally favor our proposal in terms of profit and risk-profit financial indicators. This result reaffirms the convenience of using machine learning methods to guide financial investments in complex and highly-volatile environments such as the cryptocurrency market.

Abstract Since the emergence of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies have grown significantly, not only in terms of capitalization but also in number. Consequently, the cryptocurrency market can be a conducive arena for investors, as it offers many opportunities. However, it is difficult to understand. This study aims to describe, summarize, and segment the main trends of the entire cryptocurrency market in 2018, using data analysis tools. Accordingly, we propose a new clustering-based methodology that provides complementary views of the financial behavior of cryptocurrencies, and one that looks for associations between the clustering results, and other factors that are not involved in clustering. Particularly, the methodology involves applying three different partitional clustering algorithms, where each of them use a different representation for cryptocurrencies, namely, yearly mean, and standard deviation of the returns, distribution of returns that have not been applied to financial markets previously, and the time series of returns. Because each representation provides a different outlook of the market, we also examine the integration of the three clustering results, to obtain a fine-grained analysis of the main trends of the market. In conclusion, we analyze the association of the clustering results with other descriptive features of cryptocurrencies, including the age, technological attributes, and financial ratios derived from them. This will help to enhance the profiling of the clusters with additional descriptive insights, and to find associations with other variables. Consequently, this study describes the whole market based on graphical information, and a scalable methodology that can be reproduced by investors who want to understand the main trends in the market quickly, and those that look for cryptocurrencies with different financial performance.In our analysis of the 2018 and 2019 for extended period, we found that the market can be typically segmented in few clusters (five or less), and even considering the intersections, the 6 more populations account for 75% of the market. Regarding the associations between the clusters and descriptive features, we find associations between some clusters with volume, market capitalization, and some financial ratios, which could be explored in future research.