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How to plan crop planting under global warming is a key issue in the context of an emerging global food crisis. Although previous studies have utilized crop potential distribution for crop planting strategies, they overlooked the high and stable crop-yielding areas within the potential distribution zone, which hinders the optimal utilization of these areas. Taking China as a case, this study proposed a high and stable yield index based on crop potential yield using a hybrid model at site scale (i.e., establishing the relationship between the observed crop yield and the outputs of process-based LPJ-GUESS model as well as climate variables using the random forest method) and assessed planting suitability of China's main grain crops (i.e., maize, wheat, and rice) under future climate change using the index. According to the results, (1) the determination coefficients between observed and modeled yield in the hybrid models were 0.71, 0.49, and 0.66 for maize, wheat, and rice, respectively, suggesting that the hybrid model had an acceptable performance. Moreover, the hybrid models had much better performance than the LPJ-GUESS model in crop yield simulation at site scale. (2) Compared with the 2001–2020, future average potential yield of three crops in the actual cultivated land would decline in 2081–2100, where the declined areas for maize, wheat, and rice would account for 83.8–89.2 %, 68.2–70.2 %, and 74.2–80.9 % of cultivated land, respectively. (3) High yield and stable yield areas of each crop do not overlap completely spatially, indicating that establishment of the high and stable yield index for crop planting suitability measurement is necessary. Compared with the 2001–2020, the optimal suitability areas of each crop will decrease under future climate change, implying that future climate change will reduce and shift the high and stable yield area of each crop. (4) Spatial overlay between the actual distribution and the optimal suitability area of each crop demonstrates that the optimal suitability area of each crop has not and will not be occupied completely by actual crop planting, suggesting a large available area for the adjustment of future crop planting area. This work could facilitate spatial optimization of crop planting to adapt to future climate change in China. • A hybrid model was developed to estimate crop yield. • An index of high and stable yield for crop was established for crop planting. • Future climate will reduce potential yield and planting suitability of crops. • Optimal suitability area has not been completely occupied by actual crop planting. • Large space was detected for adjusting and newly developing crop planting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil CO 2 emissions respond differently to different tillage practices. However, limited information is available regarding the impact of conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT) on soil CO 2 emissions and the primary controlling factors or processes. The goal of this study is to derive the relationship of soil CO 2 emissions with soil physicochemical properties from differently tilled soils in a typical winter wheat summer maize rotation system. We hypothesized that soil tillage practices would impact the soil carbon cycle by modifying soil physical and chemical properties, which would in turn affect the soil CO 2 emissions. The study was conducted from 2018 to 2022 with two tillage practices using a randomized complete block design with three replicates. A leading international real-time monitoring system in situ was used to collect soil CO 2 emission data. Cumulative soil CO 2 emissions were reduced by 28.7% in maize and increased by 9.0% in wheat under NT as compared to CT. On an annual scale, the cumulative CO 2 emissions were decreased by 20.5% in NT as compared to CT. Maize season accounted for 70% 78% of soil CO 2 emissions. NT improved the aboveground biomass by 7.74% and 6.44%, and grain yields by 10.2% and 4.49% for maize and wheat, respectively. The soil CO 2 emission intensity of maize was reduced by 35.9% under NT as compared to CT. No significant differences were discovered under the two tillage practices for soil CO 2 emission intensity of wheat. For maize, NT increased the bulk density, subsequently decreasing soil temperature and increasing soil moisture. NT also led to higher soil organic carbon and total nitrogen content, ultimately resulting in a significant reduction in soil CO 2 emissions. For wheat, NT increased soil bulk density, further increasing soil moisture and lowering soil pH. NT thus resulted in lower soil organic carbon and total nitrogen content, ultimately leading to enhanced soil CO 2 emissions. Some of these observations might not be consistent with theoretical predictions, which indicated that the unconsidered factors of actual field conditions might have much significant effects. Overall, NT can be extensively used as an eco-friendly cropland tillage practice based on its positive effects of reducing CO 2 emissions and increasing crop yields. [Display omitted] • CO 2 emission variations by tillage were evaluated by the structural equation model. • No-tillage (NT) decreased CO 2 emissions by 28.7% in maize and increased by 8.99% in wheat. • Annual CO 2 emissions were decreased by 20.5% under NT than conventional tillage (CT). • Maize season accounted for 70% 78% of soil CO 2 emissions. • CO 2 emission intensity of maize was reduced by 35.9% under NT compared with CT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]