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In this paper we explore whether mental representations about birth (birth‐related mindsets) assessed during pregnancy can predict labour and birth in the sense that the perception of birth as a natural (rather than a medical) event increases the probability of a low‐intervention birth. Birth, in turn, might affect short‐term and long‐term psychological well‐being. These assumptions were tested in a longitudinal study (N = 311), spanning the first half of pregnancy and up to 6 months after birth. The results of a single indicator model displayed a sequential process: women who held a more natural mindset prenatally were more likely to have low‐intervention births, which resulted in a more positive evaluation of the birth experience, which in turn predicted well‐being in the first weeks after birth (measured with ecological momentary assessment), and subsequently postpartum depression and post‐traumatic stress symptoms 8 weeks after birth as well as mother‐infant bonding 6 months after birth. The study demonstrates the relevance of psychological factors for childbirth. The construct of a birth‐related mindset could contribute to a better understanding of childbirth and help to make women's birth experiences safer and more satisfying and to improve the transition to motherhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]