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Background and purpose: Predicting the course of behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) remains a major clinical challenge. This study aimed to identify factors that predict survival and clinical progression in bvFTD. Methods: Consecutive patients with clinically probable bvFTD were prospectively followed up over an 8‐year period. Baseline neuropsychological variables, presence of a known pathogenic frontotemporal dementia gene mutation and a systematic visual magnetic resonance imaging assessment at baseline were examined as candidate predictors using multivariate modelling. Results: After screening 121 cases, the study cohort consisted of 75 patients with probable bvFTD, with a mean age of 60.8 ± 8.5 years, followed up for a mean duration of 7.2 ± 3.5 years from symptom onset. Median survival time from disease onset was 10.8 years and median survival, prior to transition to nursing home, was 8.9 years. A total of 25 of the 75 patients died during the study follow‐up period. Survival without dependence was predicted by shorter disease duration at presentation (hazard ratio, 0.49, P = 0.001), greater atrophy in the anterior cingulate cortex (hazard ratio, 1.75, P = 0.047), older age (hazard ratio, 1.07, P = 0.026) and a higher burden of behavioural symptoms (hazard ratio, 1.04, P = 0.015). In terms of disease progression, presence of a known pathogenic frontotemporal dementia mutation (β = 0.46, P < 0.001) was the strongest predictor of progression. Deficits in letter fluency (β = −0.43, P = 0.017) and greater atrophy in the motor cortex (β = 0.51, P = 0.03) were also associated with faster progression. Conclusions: This study provides novel clinical predictors of survival and progression in bvFTD. Our findings are likely to have an impact on prognostication and care planning in this difficult disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]