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Large-scale randomized clinical trials have established the efficacy of cholesterol-lowering, blood pressure-lowering, and anti-platelet therapy to prevent cardiovascular diseases. A challenge for clinicians is to apply group-level evidence from these trials to individual patients. Trials typically report a single treatment effect estimate which is the average effect of all participants, comprising patients who respond poorly, intermediately, and well. Clinicians would preferably make patient-tailored treatment decisions. Therefore, one would require an estimate of an individual patient's response to therapy. Although not yet widely recognized, trials contain this type of information. In this paper, we show how available information from landmark trials can be translated to an individual 'treatment score' through the use of multivariable therapeutic prediction models. These models provide an individual estimate of the absolute risk reduction in cardiovascular events given the specific combination of multiple clinical characteristics of a patient under care. Based on this individualized treatment estimate and metrics such as the individual number-needed-to-treat, clinicians together with their patients can decide whether drug treatment or what treatment intensity is worthwhile. Selective treatment of those who can anticipate the greatest benefit and the least harm on an individualized basis could reduce the number of unnecessary treatments and healthcare costs beyond that currently achievable by subgroup analyses based on single patient characteristics.

Aims To evaluate safety and effectiveness of early generation drug-eluting stents (DES) compared with bare-metal stents (BMS) in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and to determine whether benefits and risks vary over time. Methods and results We performed a meta-analysis of 15 randomized controlled trials enrolling a total of 7867 patients comparing first-generation FDA-approved DES with BMS in patients with STEMI. Random effect models were used to assess differences in outcomes between DES and BMS among different time periods with regard to the pre-specified primary outcomes stent thrombosis (ST) and target vessel revascularization (TVR). The overall risk of definite ST was similar for DES and BMS [risk ratio (RR) = 1.08, 95% CI 0.82-1.43]. However, there were time-dependent effects, with a RR of 0.80 during the first year (95% CI 0.58-1.12) and 2.10 during subsequent years (95% CI 1.20-3.69), with a positive test for interaction between RR of ST and time (P for interaction = 0.009). Results were similar for definite or probable ST (P for interaction = 0.015). In the overall analysis, TVR was performed less frequently in patients with DES when compared with BMS (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.43-0.61), with a greater benefit in the first year (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.38-0.55) when compared with subsequent years (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59-0.94; P for interaction = 0.007). Conclusion An early benefit of early generation DES in primary PCI for STEMI with a reduction in TVR and a trend towards less definite ST is offset in subsequent years by an increased risk of very late ST

Aims Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with statins, including the most recent, fail to make the best use of the evidence from clinical trials by concentrating on absolute CVD risk as a statin indication and not also considering that a major determinant of therapeutic benefit is the magnitude of the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) (or non-HDL) cholesterol reduction achieved. This decrease is proportional to the pretreatment concentration. We set out to apply this knowledge to the calculation of the number needed to treat to prevent one event (NNT) and to assess critically how current guidelines performed at different degrees of CVD risk across a range of LDL (or non-HDL) cholesterol concentrations. Methods and results Number needed to treat to prevent one event revealed exclusion from the treatment of some people with higher cholesterol levels, who may benefit more than others needlessly exposed to statins with no realistic prospect of benefit. Furthermore, abandonment of cholesterol therapeutic goals disadvantaged people with higher levels. Conclusion These problems can be overcome by basing the decision to treat on the NNT calculated both from absolute CVD risk and also on the LDL (or non-HDL) cholesterol reduction achievable with statin treatment. This need not adds an additional layer of complexity for the clinician, because computer programmes already used to estimate CVD risk could be easily amended, thus permitting more effective deployment of statins in the population.

The effects of statin therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) remain uncertain. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the effects of statin on major clinical outcomes.We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for trials published between 1970 and November 2011. We included prospective, randomized, controlled trials assessing the effects of statins on cardiovascular outcomes in people with kidney disease. Summary estimates of relative risk (RR) reductions were calculated with a random effects model. Thirty-one trials that include at least one event were identified, providing data for 48 429 patients with CKD, including 6690 major cardiovascular events and 6653 deaths. Statin therapy produced a 23% RR reduction (16-30) for major cardiovascular events (P0.001), an 18% RR reduction (8-27) for coronary events, and 9% (1-16) reduction in cardiovascular or all-cause deaths, but had no significantly effect on stroke (21%, -12 to 44) or no clear effect on kidney failure events (5%, -1 to 10). Adverse events were not significantly increased by statins, including hepatic (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.92-1.39) or muscular disorders (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.95-1.09). Subgroup analysis demonstrated the relative effects of statin therapy in CKD were significantly reduced in people with advanced CKD (P0.001) but that the absolute risk reductions were comparable.Statin therapy reduces the risk of major cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease including those receiving dialysis.