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Aims: We hypothesized that the modified Diamond-Forrester (D-F) prediction model overestimates probability of coronary artery disease (CAD). The aim of this study was to update the prediction model based on pre-test information and assess the model's performance in predicting prognosis in an unselected, contemporary population suspected of angina., Methods and Results: We included 3903 consecutive patients free of CAD and heart failure and suspected of angina, who were referred to a single centre for assessment in 2012-15. Obstructive CAD was defined from invasive angiography as lesion requiring revascularization, >70% stenosis or fractional flow reserve <0.8. Patients were followed (mean follow-up 33 months) for myocardial infarction, unstable angina, heart failure, stroke, and death. The updated D-F prediction model overestimated probability considerably: mean pre-test probability was 31.4%, while only 274 (7%) were diagnosed with obstructive CAD. A basic prediction model with age, gender, and symptoms demonstrated good discrimination with C-statistics of 0.86 (95% CI 0.84-0.88), while a clinical prediction model adding diabetes, family history, and dyslipidaemia slightly improved the C-statistic to 0.88 (0.86-0.90) (P for difference between models <0.0001). Quartiles of probability of CAD from the clinical prediction model provided good diagnostic and prognostic stratification: in the lowest quartiles there were no cases of obstructive CAD and cumulative risk of the composite endpoint was less than 3% at 2 years., Conclusion: The pre-test probability model recommended in current ESC guidelines substantially overestimates likelihood of CAD when applied to a contemporary, unselected, all-comer population. We provide an updated prediction model that identifies subgroups with low likelihood of obstructive CAD and good prognosis in which non-invasive testing may safely be deferred., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2018. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: It is presently unknown whether patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at increased risk of thrombo-embolic adverse events after interruption of warfarin treatment. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk and timing of thrombo-embolism after warfarin treatment interruption., Methods and Results: A retrospective, nationwide cohort study of all patients in Denmark treated with warfarin after a first hospitalization with AF in the period 1997-2008. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of thrombo-embolic events and all-cause mortality were calculated using the Poisson regression analyses. In total, 48 989 AF patients receiving warfarin treatment were included. Of these, 35 396 patients had at least one episode of warfarin treatment interruption. In all, 8255 deaths or thrombo-embolic events occurred during treatment interruption showing an initial clustering of events with 2717, 835, 500, and 427 events occurring during 0-90, 91-180, 181-270, and 271-360 days after treatment interruption, respectively. Correspondingly, the crude incidence rates were 31.6, 17.7, 12.3, and 11.4 events per 100 patient-years. In a multivariable analysis, the first 90-day interval of treatment interruption was associated with a markedly higher risk of death or thrombo-embolism (IRR 2.5; 95% confidence interval 2.3-2.8) vs. the interval of 271-360 days., Conclusion: In patients with AF, an interruption of warfarin treatment is associated with a significantly increased short-term risk of death or thrombo-embolic events within the first 90 days of treatment interruption.