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A mechanistic model called PLASMO was developed earlier to simulate grapevine downy mildew ( Plasmopara viticola) and has been applied in several viticultural areas of Italy since 1988 by the collaboration of several research institutions of Firenze. In this study, a new simulation model based on fuzzy logic has been developed for the same structure (biological cycle of P. viticola). This approach allows classical quantitative information to be used together with qualitative information. Vague concepts can also be handled. Agrometeorological data is used, with an hourly time step, starting from budbreak to the end of the growing season. Air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and leaf wetness are required. The simulated processes are the growth of grapevine leaf area and the main phases of the biological cycle of the pathogen: incubation, sporulation, germination, spore survival and inoculation. The main epidemiological outputs are timing of infection events and disease intensity. The performance of the model is evaluated and the mechanistic and fuzzy logic approaches are compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on existing physical theories and models, a dynamic model estimating the concentration of Venturia inaequalis ascospores in the orchard air and their deposition on apple leaves was elaborated. The model produces two main outputs: number of ascospores deposited per leaf and proportion of ascospores discharged from pseudothecia deposited onto the leaves. The model has a relatively simple structure, and computations are based on few algorithms, which are implemented on an electronic data sheet of common use. Nevertheless, it preserves the accuracy of more complex physical models reasonably well. The model includes the effect of meteorological conditions and horticultural characteristics, and thus provides information for each type of orchard. Few input variables are required: wind speed and rainfall rate can be measured in standard meteorological stations; horticultural characteristics of the orchard can be determined for each type of orchard. The model produces conservative estimates of ascospore deposition, because it assumes a complete retention of the spores deposited by rainfall and does not consider either deposition on stems and flowers or the spatial distribution of plant surfaces. After further validation under orchard conditions, the model will be used to obtain better estimates of scab infection risk in current scab control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diaporthe helianthi is the causal agent of a severe sunflower disease but, in Italy, disease outbreaks are sporadic with no significant losses. The present work investigates the role of meteorological conditions on the potential development of D. helianthi epidemics in Italy, using the French model Asphodel, which simulates the effect of air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on ascospore maturation and dispersal, infection establishment, disease onset and severity during the period of host susceptibility. Meteorological data measured in eight stations distributed from north to south Italy, over a 5-year period (1995–99), was used as model input. Results showed that meteorological conditions in Italy are frequently favourable for D. helianthi infections on sunflower, and severe epidemics are possible. Therefore, climatic conditions are not a limiting factor for disease development in the Italian sunflower-growing areas. The lack of disease epidemics in Italy may be related to differences in the pathogen populations compared with the French ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dynamic simulation model for the risk of Fusarium head blight on wheat was elaborated based on systems analysis. The model calculates a daily infection risk based on sporulation, spore dispersal and infection of host tissue of the four main species causing the disease ( Gibberella zeae, Fusarium culmorum, Gibberella avenacea, Monographella nivalis). Spore yield and dispersal are calculated as functions of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, while the main factors affecting the infection rate are temperature, wetness and the host growth stage. The model also calculates a risk for mycotoxin production by G. zeae and F. culmorum in the infected head tissue. First validations against field data, collected in some wheat-growing areas in northern Italy and not used in model elaboration, produced satisfactory results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Outlines the construction of a revised system for collecting meteorological data from automatic agrometeorological stations and connecting the data to site specific information and biological information in the Norwegian Crop Research Institute in Norway. Main user groups of meteorological data; Measurements of the meteorological data; Use of World Wide Web for the dissemination of information.

Shows the processing of weather data in the Agrometeorological Measuring Net of Rheinland-Pfalz (AMN RP) in Rhineland, Germany. Aims of AMN RP; Standards for agrometeorological measuring stations; Modules for the administration and transfer of data; Steps in the final assembly of the weather data; Actions carried out at the weather stations of the AMN RP.

Presents the different decision aids used for forecasting apple scab outbreaks in Rhineland, Germany. Life cycle of apple scab; Biological parameters for dispersal of the pathogen; Meteorological parameters for the establishment of scab infection; Forecasting of apple scab on the basis of climatological conditions and ascospore release simulation.

Describes the status of the warning services for plant protection in Italy. Methods for preparing warnings; Role of forecasting model as a tool to support warning preparation; Interactions among warning services, research institutes, farmers' associations and agrometeorological networks; Contents of warnings; Methods to disseminate warnings to farmers; Warning services for selected crops.

For more than 10 years, a forecasting model for Cydia pomonella in apple orchards, worked out by the French NPPO, has described the development of emergence cohorts in spring, and followed their development and descent, through the whole agricultural season. In homogeneous areas, this tool, still under development, can be used to define periods for effective treatment (ovicides, larvicides, mating disruption) and the tolerance for codling moth levels in various situations. Alternation of insecticides is provided for, so as to manage resistance phenomena. The reliability of the model is based on rigorous continuous biological checks on the forecasts made by the algorithm, on scientific surveillance by INRA and on regular collaboration between the advisers involved and the agrometeorological services. The model forms part of a wider decisional scheme, or expert system, in which the fruit grower and his adviser provide observations on the changes which cannot be provided by the model: installation of hail protection nets, night lights, fruit spreading. More parameters will be incorporated in future and the geographical validity of the model will be extended, particularly to more northerly areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]