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Continuous monitoring systems, consisting of multiple fixed sensors, are increasingly being deployed at oil and gas production sites to detect methane emissions. While these monitoring systems operate continuously, their efficiency in detecting emissions will depend on meteorological conditions, sensor detection limits, the number of sensors deployed, and sensor placement strategies. This work demonstrates an approach to assess the effectiveness of continuous sensor networks in detecting infinite-duration and fixed-duration emission events. The case studies examine a single idealized source and a group of nine different sources at varying heights and locations on a single pad. Using site-specific meteorological data and dispersion modeling, the emission detection performance is characterized. For these case studies, infinite-duration emission events are detected within 1 h to multiple days, depending on the number of sensors deployed. The percentage of fixed-duration emission events that are detected ranged from less than 10% to more than 90%, depending on the number of sources, emission release height, emission event duration, and the number of sensors deployed. While these results are specific to these case studies, the analysis framework described in this work can be broadly applied in the evaluation of continuous emission monitoring network designs.

Spatially resolved emission inventories were used with an atmospheric dispersion model to predict ambient concentrations of methane, ethane, and propane in the Eagle Ford oil and gas production region in south central Texas; predicted concentrations were compared to ground level observations. Using a base case inventory, predicted median propane/ethane concentration ratios were 106% higher (95% CI: 83% higher-226% higher) than observations, while median ethane/methane concentration ratios were 112% higher (95% CI: 17% higher-228% higher) than observations. Predicted median propane and ethane concentrations were factors of 6.9 (95% CI: 3-15.2) and 3.4 (95% CI: 1.4-9) larger than observations, respectively. Predicted median methane concentrations were 7% higher (95% CI: 39% lower-37% higher) than observations. These comparisons indicate that sources of emissions with high propane/ethane ratios (condensate tank flashing) were likely overestimated in the inventories. Because sources of propane and ethane emissions are also sources of methane emissions, the results also suggest that sources of emissions with low ethane/methane ratios (midstream sources) were underestimated. This analysis demonstrates the value of using multiple light alkanes in attributing sources of methane emissions and evaluating the performance of methane emission inventories for oil and natural gas production regions.

Cap and trade programs have historically been designed to achieve annual or seasonal reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants. Emissions reductions may not be temporally coincident with meteorological conditions conducive to the formation of peak ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations. Integrated power system and air quality modeling methods were developed to evaluate time-differentiated emissions price signals on high ozone days in the Mid-Atlantic portion of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) Interconnection and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grids. Sufficient flexibility exists in the two grids with marked differences in demand and fuel generation mix to accommodate time-differentiated emissions pricing alone or in combination with a season-wide program. System-wide emissions reductions and production costs from time-differentiated pricing are shown to be competitive with those of a season-wide program on high ozone days and would be more cost-effective if the primary policy goal was to target emissions reductions on these days. Time-differentiated pricing layered as a complement to the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule had particularly pronounced benefits for the Mid-Atlantic PJM system that relies heavily on coal-fired generation. Time-differentiated pricing aimed at reducing ozone concentrations had particulate matter reduction co-benefits, but if particulate matter reductions are the primary objective, other approaches to time-differentiated pricing may lead to greater benefits.

The combined emissions and air quality impacts of electricity generation in the Texas grid and natural gas production in the Eagle Ford shale were estimated at various natural gas price points for the power sector. The increased use of natural gas in the power sector, in place of coal-fired power generation, drove reductions in average daily maximum 8 h ozone concentration of 0.6-1.3 ppb in northeastern Texas for a high ozone episode used in air quality planning. The associated increase in Eagle Ford upstream oil and gas production nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions caused an estimated local increase, in south Texas, of 0.3-0.7 ppb in the same ozone metric. In addition, the potential ozone impacts of Eagle Ford emissions on nearby urban areas were estimated. On the basis of evidence from this work and a previous study on the Barnett shale, the combined ozone impact of increased natural gas development and use in the power sector is likely to vary regionally and must be analyzed on a case by case basis.

Emission controls that provide incentives for maximizing reductions in emissions of ozone precursors on days when ozone concentrations are highest have the potential to be cost-effective ozone management strategies. Conventional prescriptive emissions controls or cap-and-trade programs consider all emissions similarly regardless of when they occur, despite the fact that contributions to ozone formation may vary. In contrast, a time-differentiated approach targets emissions reductions on forecasted high ozone days without imposition of additional costs on lower ozone days. This work examines simulations of such dynamic air quality management strategies for NO(x) emissions from electric generating units. Results from a model of day-specific NO(x) pricing applied to the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) portion of the northeastern U.S. electrical grid demonstrate (i) that sufficient flexibility in electricity generation is available to allow power production to be switched from high to low NO(x) emitting facilities, (ii) that the emission price required to induce EGUs to change their strategies for power generation are competitive with other control costs, (iii) that dispatching strategies, which can change the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions, lead to ozone concentration reductions comparable to other control technologies, and (iv) that air quality forecasting is sufficiently accurate to allow EGUs to adapt their power generation strategies.

Samples of fine particulate matter were collected in a roadway tunnel near Houston, TX over a period of 4 days during two separate sampling periods: one sampling period from 1200 to 1400 local time and another sampling period from 1600 to 1800 local time. During the two sampling periods, the tunnel traffic contained roughly equivalent numbers of heavy-duty diesel trucks. However, during the late afternoon sampling period, the tunnel contained twice as many light-duty gasoline-powered vehicles. The effect of this shift in the vehicle fleet affects the overall emission index (grams pollutant emitted per kilogram carbon in fuel) for fine particles and fine particulate elemental carbon. Additionally, this shift in the fraction of diesel vehicles in the tunnel is used to determine if the chemical mass balancing techniques used to track emissions from gasoline-powered and diesel-powered emissions accurately separates these two emission categories. The results show that the chemical mass balancing calculations apportion roughly equal amounts of the particulate matter measured to diesel vehicles between the two periods and attribute almost twice as much particulate matter in the late afternoon sampling period to gasoline vehicles. Both of these results are consistent with the traffic volume of gasoline and diesel vehicles in the tunnel in the two separate periods and validate the ability for chemical mass balancing techniques to separate these two primary sources of fine particles.