Zhao, Meifang, Peng, Changhui, Xiang, Wenhua, Deng, Xiangwen, Tian, Dalun, Zhou, Xiaolu, Yu, Guirui, He, Honglin, and Zhao, Zhonghui
Plants interact to the seasonality of their environments, and changes in plant phenology have long been regarded as sensitive indicators of climatic change. Plant phenology modeling has been shown to be the simplest and most useful tool to assess phenol-climate shifts. Temperature, solar radiation, and water availability are assumed to be the key factors that control plant phenology. Statistical, mechanistic, and theoretical approaches have often been used for the parameterization of plant phenology models. The statistical approaches correlate the timing of phenological events to environmental factors or heat unit accumulations. The approaches have the simplified calculation procedures, correct phenological mechanism assumptions, but limited applications and predictive abilities. The mechanistic approaches describe plant phenology with the known or assumed 'cause-effect relationships' between biological processes and key driving variables. The mechanistic approaches have the improved parameter processes, realistic assumptions, broad applications, and effective predictions. The theoretical approaches assume cost-benefit tradeoff strategies in trees. These methods are capable of capturing and quantifying the potential impacts and consequences of global climate change and human activity. However, certain limitations still exist related to our understanding of phenological mechanisms in relation to (1) interactions between plants and their specific climates, (2) the integration of both field observational and remote sensing data with plant phenology models across taxa and ecosystem type, (3) amplitude clarification of scale-related sensitivity to global climate change, and (4) improvements in parameterization processes and the overall reduction of modeling uncertainties to forecast impacts of future climate change on plant phenological dynamics. To improve our capacity in the prediction of the amplitude of plant phenological responses with regard to both structural and functional sensitivity to future global climate change, it is important to refine modeling methodologies by applying long-term and large-scale observational data. It is equally important to consider other less used but critical factors (such as heredity, pests, and anthropogenic drivers), apply advanced model parameterization and data assimilation techniques, incorporate process-based plant phenology models as a dynamic component into global vegetation dynamic models, and test plant phenology models against long-term ground observations and high-resolution satellite data across different spatial and temporal scales. Key words: plant phenology, climate change, NDVI, ecological forecasting, process-based model. Les plantes interagissent avec la saisonnalite de leur environnement et on a longtemps considere les changements de la phenologie comme indicateurs du changement climatique. On a montre que la modelisation de la phenologie des plantes constitue le moyen le plus simple et le plus utile pour evaluer les glissements pheno-climatiques. On assume que la temperature, la radiation solaire et la disponibilite de l'eau constituent des facteurs determinants controlant la phenologie des plantes. On a egalement souvent utilise des approches statistiques, mecanistes et theoriques pour parametrer les modeles de phenologie vegetale. Les approches statistiques font la correlation entre l'incidence des evenements phenologiques, les facteurs environnementaux ou les accumulations d'unites thermiques. Ces approches statistiques ont l'avantage d'utiliser des methodes de calcul simplifiees et de corriger les mecanismes phenologiques assumes mais ont des capacites d'application et de prediction limitees. Les approches mecanistes decrivent la phenologie des plantes avec les relations de causes a effets connues ou presumees impliquant les processus biologiques et des variables determinantes. Les approches mecanistes ont l'avantage d'ameliorer le parametrage des processus, d'etablir des postulats realistes et de fournir des applications et des predictions valables. L'approche theorique se base sur des strategies cout benefice dans l'arbre. Ces methodes peuvent integrer et quantifier les impacts potentiels et les consequences du changement climatique global et de l'activite humaine. Cependant, il existe toujours certaines limitations reliees a notre comprehension des mecanismes phenologiques en relation avec (1) les interactions entre les plantes et les climats specifiques, (2) l'integration a la fois des donnees de terrain et de teledetection avec les modeles phenologiques vegetaux a travers les taxons et les types d'ecosystemes, (3) la clarification de l'amplitude et de la sensibilite reliees a l'echelle du changement climatique global et (4) l'amelioration des processus de parametrisation et la reduction generale des incertitudes de la modelisation pour predire les impacts du changement climatique futur sur la dynamique phenologique des plantes. Pour ameliorer notre capacite a predire l'amplitude des reactions phenologique des plantes en relation avec la sensibilite a la fois structurale et fonctionnelle du futur changement climatique, il faut raffiner les methodologies de modelisation en appliquant des donnees a long terme et a grande echelle. Il faut egalement considerer des facteurs moins utilises mais critiques (comme l'heredite, les pestes et les determinants anthropiques), appliquer la parametrisation de modeles avances et des techniques d'assimilation des donnees, incorporer des modeles de phenologie vegetale bases sur des processus comme composante dynamique des modeles globaux dynamiques de la vegetation et tester les modeles de phenologie vegetale contre des observations a long terme ainsi que les donnees satellites a haute resolution sur differentes echelles spatiales et temporelles. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: phenologie vegetale, changement climatique, NDVI, previsions ecologiques, modele base sur des processus., 1. Introduction Phenology is the scientific study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events (such as flowering, breeding, and migration) and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual [...]