Search

In the Arctic waterbodies are abundant and rapid thaw of permafrost is destabilizing the carbon cycle and changing hydrology. It is particularly important to quantify and accurately scale aquatic carbon emissions in arctic ecosystems. Recently available high-resolution remote sensing datasets capture the physical characteristics of arctic landscapes at unprecedented spatial resolution. We demonstrate how machine learning models can capitalize on these spatial datasets to greatly improve accuracy when scaling waterbody CO _2 and CH _4 fluxes across the YK Delta of south-west AK. We found that waterbody size and contour were strong predictors for aquatic CO _2 emissions, attributing greater than two-thirds of the influence to the scaling model. Small ponds (

Cities are beginning to monitor atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) to assess the efficacy of their climate policies. However, changes in anthropogenic CO _2 emissions must be separated from biospheric CO _2 fluxes which have a large seasonal cycle. Urban vegetation (e.g. lawns, trees along street and in parks, etc) in developed land covers is often omitted in regional biogenic CO _2 flux models. We set up a biosphere model to estimate the regional biogenic CO _2 fluxes in New York City (NYC) and assess the importance of vegetation within developed land covers. The model incorporates a high-resolution (30 m) land cover map which identifies the mixture of impervious surfaces and vegetation that is ubiquitous across developed land covers. We designed three model scenarios to evaluate the role of developed land covers in regional biogenic CO _2 fluxes by assuming (a) there is no vegetation versus scenarios where all remotely sensed vegetation in developed land covers is either (b) grassland or (c) deciduous forest. Despite relatively low tree canopy cover in NYC, the regional biogenic CO _2 fluxes are surprisingly large when vegetation within the developed land covers is included. Furthermore, the types of vegetation within the developed land covers are crucially important for estimating regional biogenic CO _2 fluxes, demonstrated by a doubling in estimates of total biogenic CO _2 flux when this vegetation is assumed to be grassland compared to forest. Using a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model, we find that the regional biogenic CO _2 uptake offsets up to 40% of atmospheric CO _2 enhancements attributed to anthropogenic emissions in summer afternoons and completely balances on-road traffic in one of the most congested cities in the United States. Accurate characterization of the vegetation and biogenic carbon fluxes in cities are essential to the development of effective atmospheric monitoring tools. Future measurements should focus on constraining CO _2 fluxes in urban grasslands (i.e. lawns).

Soil respiration (i.e. from soils and roots) provides one of the largest global fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) to the atmosphere and is likely to increase with warming, yet the magnitude of soil respiration from rapidly thawing Arctic-boreal regions is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we first compiled a new CO _2 flux database for permafrost-affected tundra and boreal ecosystems in Alaska and Northwest Canada. We then used the CO _2 database, multi-sensor satellite imagery, and random forest models to assess the regional magnitude of soil respiration. The flux database includes a new Soil Respiration Station network of chamber-based fluxes, and fluxes from eddy covariance towers. Our site-level data, spanning September 2016 to August 2017, revealed that the largest soil respiration emissions occurred during the summer (June–August) and that summer fluxes were higher in boreal sites (1.87 ± 0.67 g CO _2 –C m ^−2 d ^−1 ) relative to tundra (0.94 ± 0.4 g CO _2 –C m ^−2 d ^−1 ). We also observed considerable emissions (boreal: 0.24 ± 0.2 g CO _2 –C m ^−2 d ^−1 ; tundra: 0.18 ± 0.16 g CO _2 –C m ^−2 d ^−1 ) from soils during the winter (November–March) despite frozen surface conditions. Our model estimates indicated an annual region-wide loss from soil respiration of 591 ± 120 Tg CO _2 –C during the 2016–2017 period. Summer months contributed to 58% of the regional soil respiration, winter months contributed to 15%, and the shoulder months contributed to 27%. In total, soil respiration offset 54% of annual gross primary productivity (GPP) across the study domain. We also found that in tundra environments, transitional tundra/boreal ecotones, and in landscapes recently affected by fire, soil respiration often exceeded GPP, resulting in a net annual source of CO _2 to the atmosphere. As this region continues to warm, soil respiration may increasingly offset GPP, further amplifying global climate change.

An estimated 1700 Pg of carbon is frozen in the Arctic permafrost and the fate of this carbon is unclear because of the complex interaction of biophysical, ecological and biogeochemical processes that govern the Arctic carbon budget. Two key processes determining the region’s long-term carbon budget are: (a) carbon uptake through increased plant growth, and (b) carbon release through increased heterotrophic respiration (HR) due to warmer soils. Previous predictions for how these two opposing carbon fluxes may change in the future have varied greatly, indicating that improved understanding of these processes and their feedbacks is critical for advancing our predictive ability for the fate of Arctic peatlands. In this study, we implement and analyze a vertically-resolved model of peatland soil carbon into a cohort-based terrestrial biosphere model to improve our understanding of how on-going changes in climate are altering the Arctic carbon budget. A key feature of the formulation is that accumulation of peat within the soil column modifies its texture, hydraulic conductivity, and thermal conductivity, which, in turn influences resulting rates of HR within the soil column. Analysis of the model at three eddy covariance tower sites in the Alaskan tundra shows that the vertically-resolved soil column formulation accurately captures the zero-curtain phenomenon, in which the temperature of soil layers remain at or near 0 °C during fall freezeback due to the release of latent heat, is critical to capturing observed patterns of wintertime respiration. We find that significant declines in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) occur starting in 2013 and that these declines are driven by increased HR arising from increased precipitation and warming. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the cumulative NEP over the decade responds strongly to the estimated soil carbon stock and more weakly to vegetation abundance at the beginning of the simulation.