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Land-based carbon sequestration constitutes a major low cost and immediately viable option in climate change mitigation. Using downscaled data from eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for a simulation period between 2015 and 2099, we examine the carbon sequestration potential of alternative agricultural land uses in an intensively farmed Corn Belt watershed and the impact of climate change on crop yields. Our results show that switching from conventional tillage continuous corn to no-till corn-soybean can sequester the equivalent of 192.1 MtCO 2 eq of soil organic carbon per hectare with a sequestration rate of 2.26 MtCO 2 eq ha -1 yr -1 . Our results also indicate that switchgrass can sequester the equivalent of 310.7 MtCO 2 eq of soil organic carbon per hectare with a sequestration rate of 3.65 MtCO 2 eq ha -1 yr -1 . Our findings suggest that, unlike for corn and soybean yields, climate change does not have a significant effect on switchgrass yields, possibly due to the carbon fertilization effect.

Applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the model. In a given standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover, soil, and slope, but located at different places of a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, crop rotation, and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002-2010 and Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000-2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly, and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner.

Tenants and part-owners are farming an increasing number of acres in the United States, while full-owners are farming fewer acres. This shift in ownership is a potential cause for concern because some previous research indicated that tenant and part-owner farmers were less likely to adopt conservation practices than farmers who owned the land they farmed. If that trend persists, ownership changes would signal a national drop in conservation adoption. Here we examine this issue using a survey of agricultural operators in the Clear Creek watershed in Iowa, a state with intensive agricultural production. We compare adoption of conservation practices, and preferences for conservation information sources and communication channels, between farmers who rent some portion of the land they farm (tenants and part-owners) and farmers who own all of the land they farm (full-owners). We find that renters are more likely to practice conservation tillage than full-owners, though they are less likely to rotate crops. In addition, renters report using federal government employees (specifically, Natural Resource Conservation Service and Farm Service Agency) as their primary sources of conservation information, while full-owners most frequently rely on neighbors, friends, and County Extension. These findings are significant for conservation policy because, unlike some past research, they indicate that renters are not resistant to all types of conservation practices, echoing recent studies finding an increase in conservation adoption among non-full-owners. Our results emphasize the importance of government conservation communication and can inform outreach efforts by helping tailor effective, targeted conservation strategies for owners and renters.

Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production and enrolled into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program.