1. The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa
- Author
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Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, Namrata Kala, and Robert Mendelsohn
- Subjects
Generalized linear model ,Net profit ,Economics and Econometrics ,Ecology ,business.industry ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Climate change ,Development ,Agriculture ,Crop production ,Environmental science ,Economic impact analysis ,business ,Hectare ,Welfare ,General Environmental Science ,media_common - Abstract
This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070–2100, ranging between US$14 billion and US$70 billion, depending on the climate scenario and cropland measure considered.
- Published
- 2012
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