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The engineering challenge of rolling bearing condition monitoring has led to a large number of method developments over the past few years. Most commonly, vibration measurement data are used for fault diagnosis using machine learning algorithms. In current research, purely data-driven deep learning methods are becoming increasingly popular, aiming for accurate predictions of bearing faults without requiring bearing-specific domain knowledge. Opposing this trend in popularity, the present paper takes a more traditional approach, incorporating domain knowledge by evaluating a variety of feature engineering methods in combination with a random forest classifier. For a comprehensive feature engineering study, a total of 42 mathematical feature formulas are combined with the preprocessing methods of envelope analysis, empirical mode decomposition, wavelet transforms, and frequency band separations. While each single processing method and feature formula is known from the literature, the presented paper contributes to the body of knowledge by investigating novel series connections of processing methods and feature formulas. Using the CWRU bearing fault data for performance evaluation, feature calculation based on the processing method of frequency band separation leads to particularly high prediction accuracies, while at the same time being very efficient in terms of low computational effort. Additionally, in comparison with deep learning approaches, the proposed feature engineering method provides excellent accuracies and enables explainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rampant terrorism poses a serious threat to the national security of many countries worldwide, particularly due to separatism and extreme nationalism. This paper focuses on the development and application of a temporal self-exciting point process model to the terror data of three countries: the US, Turkey, and the Philippines. To account for occurrences with the same time-stamp, this paper introduces the order mark and reward term in parameter selection. The reward term considers the triggering effect between events in the same time-stamp but different order. Additionally, this paper provides comparisons between the self-exciting models generated by day-based and month-based arrival times. Another highlight of this paper is the development of a model to predict the number of terror events using a combination of simulation and machine learning, specifically the random forest method, to achieve better predictions. This research offers an insightful approach to discover terror event patterns and forecast future occurrences of terror events, which may have practical application towards national security strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we predict Bitcoin movements by utilizing a machine-learning framework. We compile a dataset of 24 potential explanatory variables that are often employed in the finance literature. Using daily data from 2nd of December 2014 to July 8th 2019, we build forecasting models that utilize past Bitcoin values, other cryptocurrencies, exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results suggest that the traditional logistic regression model outperforms the linear support vector machine and the random forest algorithm, reaching an accuracy of 66%. Moreover, based on the results, we provide evidence that points to the rejection of weak form efficiency in the Bitcoin market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering that driving stress is a major contributor to traffic accidents, detecting drivers' stress levels in time is helpful for ensuring driving safety. This paper attempts to investigate the ability of ultra-short-term (30-s, 1-min, 2-min, and 3-min) HRV analysis for driver stress detection under real driving circumstances. Specifically, the t-test was used to investigate whether there were significant differences in HRV features under different stress levels. Ultra-short-term HRV features were compared with the corresponding short-term (5-min) features during low-stress and high-stress phases by the Spearman rank correlation and Bland–Altman plots analysis. Furthermore, four different machine-learning classifiers, including a support vector machine (SVM), random forests (RFs), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), and Adaboost, were evaluated for stress detection. The results show that the HRV features extracted from ultra-short-term epochs were able to detect binary drivers' stress levels accurately. In particular, although the capability of HRV features in detecting driver stress also varied between different ultra-short-term epochs, MeanNN, SDNN, NN20, and MeanHR were selected as valid surrogates of short-term features for driver stress detection across the different epochs. For drivers' stress levels classification, the best performance was achieved with the SVM classifier, with an accuracy of 85.3% using 3-min HRV features. This study makes a contribution to building a robust and effective stress detection system using ultra-short-term HRV features under actual driving environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing interest in machine learning (ML) algorithms for predicting patient outcomes, as these methods are designed to automatically discover complex data patterns. For example, the random forest (RF) algorithm is designed to identify relevant predictor variables out of a large set of candidates. In addition, researchers may also use external information for variable selection to improve model interpretability and variable selection accuracy, thereby prediction quality. However, it is unclear to which extent, if at all, RF and ML methods may benefit from external information. In this paper, we examine the usefulness of external information from prior variable selection studies that used traditional statistical modeling approaches such as the Lasso, or suboptimal methods such as univariate selection. We conducted a plasmode simulation study based on subsampling a data set from a pharmacoepidemiologic study with nearly 200,000 individuals, two binary outcomes and 1152 candidate predictor (mainly sparse binary) variables. When the scope of candidate predictors was reduced based on external knowledge RF models achieved better calibration, that is, better agreement of predictions and observed outcome rates. However, prediction quality measured by cross-entropy, AUROC or the Brier score did not improve. We recommend appraising the methodological quality of studies that serve as an external information source for future prediction model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shannon's entropy is one of the building blocks of information theory and an essential aspect of Machine Learning (ML) methods (e.g., Random Forests). Yet, it is only finitely defined for distributions with fast decaying tails on a countable alphabet. The unboundedness of Shannon's entropy over the general class of all distributions on an alphabet prevents its potential utility from being fully realized. To fill the void in the foundation of information theory, Zhang (2020) proposed generalized Shannon's entropy, which is finitely defined everywhere. The plug-in estimator, adopted in almost all entropy-based ML method packages, is one of the most popular approaches to estimating Shannon's entropy. The asymptotic distribution for Shannon's entropy's plug-in estimator was well studied in the existing literature. This paper studies the asymptotic properties for the plug-in estimator of generalized Shannon's entropy on countable alphabets. The developed asymptotic properties require no assumptions on the original distribution. The proposed asymptotic properties allow for interval estimation and statistical tests with generalized Shannon's entropy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As well-known machine learning methods, decision trees are widely applied in classification and recognition areas. In this paper, with the uncertainty of labels handled by belief functions, a new decision tree method based on belief entropy is proposed and then extended to random forest. With the Gaussian mixture model, this tree method is able to deal with continuous attribute values directly, without pretreatment of discretization. Specifically, the tree method adopts belief entropy, a kind of uncertainty measurement based on the basic belief assignment, as a new attribute selection tool. To improve the classification performance, we constructed a random forest based on the basic trees and discuss different prediction combination strategies. Some numerical experiments on UCI machine learning data set were conducted, which indicate the good classification accuracy of the proposed method in different situations, especially on data with huge uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a method to classify behavioural patterns of cattle on farms is presented. Animals were equipped with low-cost 3-D accelerometers and GPS sensors, embedded in a commercial device attached to the neck. Accelerometer signals were sampled at 10 Hz, and data from each axis was independently processed to extract 108 features in the time and frequency domains. A total of 238 activity patterns, corresponding to four different classes (grazing, ruminating, laying and steady standing), with duration ranging from few seconds to several minutes, were recorded on video and matched to accelerometer raw data to train a random forest machine learning classifier. GPS location was sampled every 5 min, to reduce battery consumption, and analysed via the k-medoids unsupervised machine learning algorithm to track location and spatial scatter of herds. Results indicate good accuracy for classification from accelerometer records, with best accuracy (0.93) for grazing. The complementary application of both methods to monitor activities of interest, such as sustainable pasture consumption in small and mid-size farms, and to detect anomalous events is also explored. Results encourage replicating the experiment in other farms, to consolidate the proposed strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The current paper develops a probabilistic theory of causation and suggests practical routines for conducting causal inference applicable to new machine learning methods that have, so far, remained relatively underutilized in this context. The current paper develops a probabilistic theory of causation using measure-theoretical concepts and suggests practical routines for conducting causal inference. The theory is applicable to both linear and high-dimensional nonlinear models. An example is provided using random forest regressions and daily data on yield spreads. The application tests how uncertainty in short- and long-term inflation expectations interacts with spreads in the daily Bitcoin price. The results are contrasted with those obtained by standard linear Granger causality tests. It is shown that the suggested measure-theoretic approaches do not only lead to better predictive models, but also to more plausible parsimonious descriptions of possible causal flows. The paper concludes that researchers interested in causal analysis should be more aspirational in terms of developing predictive capabilities, even if the interest is in inference and not in prediction per se. The theory developed in the paper provides practitioners guidance for developing causal models using new machine learning methods that have, so far, remained relatively underutilized in this context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying machine learning algorithms for assessing the transmission quality in optical networks is associated with substantial challenges. Datasets that could provide training instances tend to be small and heavily imbalanced. This requires applying imbalanced compensation techniques when using binary classification algorithms, but it also makes one-class classification, learning only from instances of the majority class, a noteworthy alternative. This work examines the utility of both these approaches using a real dataset from a Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing network operator, gathered through the network control plane. The dataset is indeed of a very small size and contains very few examples of "bad" paths that do not deliver the required level of transmission quality. Two binary classification algorithms, random forest and extreme gradient boosting, are used in combination with two imbalance handling methods, instance weighting and synthetic minority class instance generation. Their predictive performance is compared with that of four one-class classification algorithms: One-class SVM, one-class naive Bayes classifier, isolation forest, and maximum entropy modeling. The one-class approach turns out to be clearly superior, particularly with respect to the level of classification precision, making it possible to obtain more practically useful models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]