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Accurate prediction of air quality is crucial for assessing the state of the atmospheric environment, especially considering the nonlinearity, volatility, and abrupt changes in air quality data. This paper introduces an air quality index (AQI) prediction model based on the Dung Beetle Algorithm (DBO) aimed at overcoming limitations in traditional prediction models, such as inadequate access to data features, challenges in parameter setting, and accuracy constraints. The proposed model optimizes the parameters of Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and integrates the Informer adaptive sequential prediction model with the Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory (CNN-LSTM). Initially, the correlation coefficient method is utilized to identify key impact features from multivariate weather and meteorological data. Subsequently, penalty factors and the number of variational modes in the VMD are optimized using DBO. The optimized parameters are utilized to develop a variationally constrained model to decompose the air quality sequence. The data are categorized based on approximate entropy, and high-frequency data are fed into the Informer model, while low-frequency data are fed into the CNN-LSTM model. The predicted values of the subsystems are then combined and reconstructed to obtain the AQI prediction results. Evaluation using actual monitoring data from Beijing demonstrates that the proposed coupling prediction model of the air quality index in this paper is superior to other parameter optimization models. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decreases by 13.59%, the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) decreases by 7.04%, and the R-square (R2) increases by 1.39%. This model surpasses 11 other models in terms of lower error rates and enhances prediction accuracy. Compared with the mainstream swarm intelligence optimization algorithm, DBO, as an optimization algorithm, demonstrates higher computational efficiency and is closer to the actual value. The proposed coupling model provides a new method for air quality index prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The profound impacts of severe air pollution on human health, ecological balance, and economic stability are undeniable. Precise air quality forecasting stands as a crucial necessity, enabling governmental bodies and vulnerable communities to proactively take essential measures to reduce exposure to detrimental pollutants. Previous research has primarily focused on predicting air quality using only time-series data. However, the importance of remote-sensing image data has received limited attention. This paper proposes a new multi-modal deep-learning model, Res-GCN, which integrates high spatial resolution remote-sensing images and time-series air quality data from multiple stations to forecast future air quality. Res-GCN employs two deep-learning networks, one utilizing the residual network to extract hidden visual information from remote-sensing images, and another using a dynamic spatio-temporal graph convolution network to capture spatio-temporal information from time-series data. By extracting features from two different modalities, improved predictive performance can be achieved. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, experiments were conducted on two real-world datasets. The results show that the Res-GCN model effectively extracts multi-modal features, significantly enhancing the accuracy of multi-step predictions. Compared to the best-performing baseline model, the multi-step prediction's mean absolute error, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error increased by approximately 6%, 7%, and 7%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the existing research on banking systemic risk focuses on static single-risk exposures, and there is a lack of research on multiple-risk exposures. The reality is that the banking system is facing an increasingly complex environment, and dynamic measures of multiple-risk integration are essential. To reveal the risk accumulation process under the multi-risk exposures of the banking system, this article constructs a dynamic banking system as the research object and combines geometric Brownian motion, the BSM model, and the maximum likelihood estimate method. This article also aims to incorporate three types of exposures (interbank lending market risk exposures, entity industry credit risk exposures, and market risk exposures) within the same framework for the first time and builds a model of the dynamic evolution of banking systemic risk under multiple exposures. This study included the collection of a large amount of real data on banks, entity industries, and market risk factors, and used the Δ C o V a R model to evaluate the systemic risk of the China banking system from the point of view of the accumulation of risk from different exposures, revealing the dynamic process of risk accumulation under the integration of multiple risks within the banking system, as well as the contribution of different exposures to banking systemic risk. The results showed that the banking systemic risk of China first increased and then decreased with time, and the rate of risk accumulation is gradually slowing down. In terms of the impact of different kinds of exposures on system losses, the credit risk exposure of the entity industry had the greatest impact on the banking systemic risk among the three kinds of exposures. In terms of the contribution of the interbank lending market risk to the systemic risk, the Bank of Communications, China Everbright Bank, and Bank of Beijing contributed the most. In terms of the contribution of the bank–entity industry credit risk to the systemic risk, the financial industry, accommodation and catering industry, and manufacturing industry contributed the most. Considering the contribution of market risk to the systemic risk, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Hang Seng Composite Index, and the Dow Jones Index contributed the most. The research in this paper enriches the existing banking systemic risk research perspective and provides a reference for the regulatory decisions of central banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ever-increasing travel demand has brought great challenges to the organization, operation, and management of the subway system. An accurate estimation of passenger flow distribution can help subway operators design corresponding operation plans and strategies scientifically. Although some literature has studied the problem of passenger flow distribution by analyzing the passengers' path choice behaviors based on AFC (automated fare collection) data, few studies focus on the passenger flow distribution while considering the passenger–train matching probability, which is the key problem of passenger flow distribution. Specifically, the existing methods have not been applied to practical large-scale subway networks due to the computational complexity. To fill this research gap, this paper analyzes the relationship between passenger travel behavior and train operation in the space and time dimension and formulates the passenger–train matching probability by using multi-source data including AFC, train timetables, and network topology. Then, a reverse derivation method, which can reduce the scale of possible train combinations for passengers, is proposed to improve the computational efficiency. Simultaneously, an estimation method of passenger flow distribution is presented based on the passenger–train matching probability. Finally, two sets of experiments, including an accuracy verification experiment based on synthetic data and a comparison experiment based on real data from the Beijing subway, are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The calculation results show that the proposed method has a good accuracy and computational efficiency for a large-scale subway network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased urbanization has caused problems such as increasing water consumption and the continuous deterioration of the groundwater environment. It is necessary to consider the groundwater quality in the water resource optimization system and increase the rate of reclaimed water development to reduce the amount of groundwater exploitation and achieve sustainable development of water resources. This study used the Daxing District, a region of Beijing's southern plain, as an example to evaluate water quality by analyzing water quality data of surface and groundwater from 2012 to 2016 and actual water-use schemes from 2006 to 2016. Three groundwater extraction modes were set up based on NO3–N concentrations, water resources were optimized under three extraction modes, and water resource optimization schemes were determined based on the improved connection entropy. The results show that (1) the surface water quality was poor, and the proportion of V4 type water in the indexes of NH3–N and chemical oxygen demand (COD) was the largest. The surface water can only be used for agricultural irrigation. The pollution sources contributing most to NH3–N and COD were domestic and agricultural pollution sources. (2) The groundwater quality was good. The NO3–N index was primarily type I–III water, accounting for 95.20% of the total samples. Severe NH3–N pollution areas were mainly in the northern region, and most regional groundwater can be used for various purposes. (3) Taking 2016 as an example, three groundwater exploitation modes were set to optimize water resource allocation, and the results showed that the rate of groundwater development and NO3–N pollution decreased significantly after optimization. (4) Connection entropy is an evaluation method that combines connection numbers and entropy, including identify, difference, and opposition entropy. As connection entropy being a kind of complete entropy, which can reflect the difference of the system in different states, based on the improved connection entropy, the connection entropies of optimal water resource allocation and actual water-use schemes were calculated. The connection entropy of groundwater exploitation mode 3 was less than that of groundwater exploitation modes 1 and 2 and actual water-use schemes from 2006 to 2016. Therefore, exploitation mode 3's water resource optimization scheme was recommended. In the paper, satisfactory results have been obtained. As a kind of complete entropy, connection entropy has great research value in dealing with complex hydrological problems. This study's research methods and outcomes can provide methodological and theoretical lessons for water management in freshwater-deficient areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with mechanism-based modeling methods, data-driven modeling based on big data has become a popular research field in recent years because of its applicability. However, it is not always better to have more data when building a forecasting model in practical areas. Due to the noise and conflict, redundancy, and inconsistency of big time-series data, the forecasting accuracy may reduce on the contrary. This paper proposes a deep network by selecting and understanding data to improve performance. Firstly, a data self-screening layer (DSSL) with a maximal information distance coefficient (MIDC) is designed to filter input data with high correlation and low redundancy; then, a variational Bayesian gated recurrent unit (VBGRU) is used to improve the anti-noise ability and robustness of the model. Beijing's air quality and meteorological data are conducted in a verification experiment of 24 h PM2.5 concentration forecasting, proving that the proposed model is superior to other models in accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environment and development are major issues of general concern. After much suffering from the harm of environmental pollution, human beings began to pay attention to environmental protection and started to carry out pollutant prediction research. A large number of air pollutant predictions have tried to predict pollutants by revealing their evolution patterns, emphasizing the fitting analysis of time series but ignoring the spatial transmission effect of adjacent areas, leading to low prediction accuracy. To solve this problem, we propose a time series prediction network with the self-optimization ability of a spatio-temporal graph neural network (BGGRU) to mine the changing pattern of the time series and the spatial propagation effect. The proposed network includes spatial and temporal modules. The spatial module uses a graph sampling and aggregation network (GraphSAGE) in order to extract the spatial information of the data. The temporal module uses a Bayesian graph gated recurrent unit (BGraphGRU), which applies a graph network to the gated recurrent unit (GRU) so as to fit the data's temporal information. In addition, this study used Bayesian optimization to solve the problem of the model's inaccuracy caused by inappropriate hyperparameters of the model. The high accuracy of the proposed method was verified by the actual PM2.5 data of Beijing, China, which provided an effective method for predicting the PM2.5 concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trend prediction based on sensor data in a multi-sensor system is an important topic. As the number of sensors increases, we can measure and store more and more data. However, the increase in data has not effectively improved prediction performance. This paper focuses on this problem and presents a distributed predictor that can overcome unrelated data and sensor noise: First, we define the causality entropy to calculate the measurement's causality. Then, the series causality coefficient (SCC) is proposed to select the high causal measurement as the input data. To overcome the traditional deep learning network's over-fitting to the sensor noise, the Bayesian method is used to obtain the weight distribution characteristics of the sub-predictor network. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is constructed as the fusion layer to fuse the results from different sub-predictors. The experiments were implemented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method by meteorological data from Beijing. The results show that the proposed predictor can effectively model the multi-sensor system's big measurement data to improve prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid proliferation of sensors and big data repositories offer many new opportunities for data science. Among many application domains, the analysis of large trajectory datasets generated from people’s movements at the city scale is one of the most promising research avenues still to explore. Extracting trajectory patterns and outliers in urban environments is a direction still requiring exploration for many management and planning tasks. The research developed in this paper introduces a spatio-temporal framework, so-called STE-SD (Spatio-Temporal Entropy for Similarity Detection), based on the initial concept of entropy as introduced by Shannon in his seminal theory of information and as recently extended to the spatial and temporal dimensions. Our approach considers several complementary trajectory descriptors whose distribution in space and time are quantitatively evaluated. The trajectory primitives considered include curvatures, stop-points, self-intersections and velocities. These primitives are identified and then qualified using the notion of entropy as applied to the spatial and temporal dimensions. The whole approach is experimented and applied to urban trajectories derived from the Geolife dataset, a reference data benchmark available in the city of Beijing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of the complex and multi-dimensional urban socio-economic system creates impacts on natural capital and human capital, which range from a local to a global scale. An emergy-based multiple spatial scale analysis framework and a rigorous accounting method that can quantify the values of human-made and natural capital losses were proposed in this study. With the intent of comparing the trajectory of Beijing over time, the characteristics of the interface between different scales are considered to explain the resource trade and the impacts of emissions. In addition, our improved determination of emergy analysis and acceptable management options that are in agreement with Beijing's overall sustainability strategy were examined. The results showed that Beijing's economy was closely correlated with the consumption of nonrenewable resources and exerted rising pressure on the environment. Of the total emergy use by the economic system, the imported nonrenewable resources from other provinces contribute the most, and the multi-scale environmental impacts of waterborne and airborne pollution continued to increase from 1999 to 2006. Given the inputs structure, Beijing was chiefly making greater profits by shifting resources from other provinces in China and transferring the emissions outside. The results of our study should enable urban policy planners to better understand the multi-scale policy planning and development design of an urban ecological economic system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For ecological economic evaluation based on the unified biophysical matrix this research illustrates an updated emergy synthesis in terms of embodied cosmic exergy instead of embodied solar energy, which successes the foundation of systems ecological theory but changes the starting point for the estimation from simply the sun to the cosmos. According to the modified definition implicating explicit scarcity and strict additivity based on the fundamental thermodynamics laws, the updated emergy approach overcomes the confusable and intractable deficiencies of traditional one and shows firmer theoretical basis as well as better applicability. As a case study for the regional socio-economic ecosystem, a cosmic emergy based ecological economic evaluation of the Beijing urban ecosystem during the period 1978-2004 is presented. The local and external resources supporting the concerned ecosystem are accounted and analyzed in a common unit, i.e., cosmic Joule, according to which a series of indicators are applied to reveal its evolutional characteristics through five aspects as emergy structure, emergy intensity, emergy welfare, environmental impacts, and degree of exploitation and economic efficiency. During the analyzed period, the major emergy source sustaining the operation of the ecosystem had changed from the renewable resources exploited locally to the nonrenewable resources purchased from outside. Emergy intensity for the Beijing urban ecosystem kept rising owing to the continuous investment of resources, which not only improved the living standard but also intensified the environmental pressure. Moreover, the increase of exploitation degree was accompanied with the decline of economic efficiency, while the rising emergy investment ratio implicates that Beijing was at the risks of resources shortage and high dependence on external resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]