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• The contact load between the roller and the raceway in the bearing is measured. • Proposing a life prediction method for the bearing under variable load conditions. • Bearings at different locations of one wheelset show different fatigue lives. In this paper, a life prediction method for axle box bearing rolling contact fatigue under wheel-rail excitation conditions is present. The dynamic contact load between the rollers and the outer raceway was considered the critical mechanical parameter for rolling contact fatigue of the bearing and measured based on strain detection of the bearing outer ring. In the bench test, the different excitation frequencies were simulated by a polygonal roller with varying rotation speeds. Then, the load spectrums of the measured loads were compiled and used as the input data for the life prediction model of rolling contact fatigue. Since the subsurface material element of the raceway is subject to the complex multiaxial stress state during service, the fatigue life was estimated based on the improved moment of the load path model. Besides, the linear damage accumulation rule was applied to evaluate the fatigue life of the bearings, considering the varying contact load that the outer raceway was subject to. Finally, the predicted fatigue lives of two double-row tapered roller bearings under different excitation conditions were present based on the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]