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Deterministic discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a well-accepted technique in engineering appraisals. Common practice is to incorporate all uncertainty influences within a single variable—namely, the discount rate—which also represents the time value of money. Commentary already exists in the literature that such a practice is expedient but not rational and has shortcomings. This article examines the error involved in this practice and provides guidelines and precautions for using blanket or constant discount rates in dealing with uncertainties. It shows the adjustments necessary for any given investment scenario. This is done through establishing equivalence of the expected utility of deterministic and probabilistic present worth, allowing a rate adjustment to be calculated. Numerical studies look at the relationship or trends of this rate adjustment to the key analysis variables. Generally, it is found that the rate adjustment should be decreased as the timing of a cash flow's occurrence increases, increased as the variance of the cash flow increases, kept almost as an additive constant as the base rate increases, and increased as the investor's level of risk aversion increases. The article provides practitioner-friendly usable guidelines for adjusting rates, something that is unavailable elsewhere in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Cash flows generated by mining projects tend to be volatile and are extensively influenced by exogenous variables, notably commodity prices and exchange rates. The traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method, which is normally used for economic feasibility studies and mining project evaluations, presents inconsistencies because the method fails to adequately address uncertainties and operational flexibilities and often ignores certain specific market conditions. Numerous studies have been carried out for mining project evaluations using the real options valuation (ROV) technique for assessing commodity price uncertainty, but there is no research on the combined effects of price and exchange rate uncertainties. Therefore, in order to assess the economic viability of a mining project more accurately, the commodity price and its inherent volatility, the exchange rate and its inherent volatility, and the correlation parameters between them have been incorporated into the model and used in the evaluation process. One of the interesting findings revealed in the study is that project values are overestimated if only commodity price uncertainty is considered in evaluating the project value instead of the joint effect of commodity price and exchange rate uncertainties. This new ROV technique will explore the opportunity to utilize an alternative methodology for approximating project values and to identify valuation opportunities to enhance economic gains or to mitigate economic losses, where the DCF valuation method does not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research in multiple internal rate of return (MROR) has mainly focused on three areas: uniqueness, conditions where MROR occur, and solutions to MROR. In an attempt to solve for MROR, researchers have assumed that the occurrence of MROR is prevalent and thus a solution is direly needed. This article examines the probability that positive MROR would occur when variation is incorporated into the cash flow and the probability of getting positive MROR when multiple sign-change cash flow is generated. Results show that the probability of positive MROR occurring in multiple sign-change cash flows is relatively low and potentially a rare event. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A team from McKinsey (Koller et al. 2010) recommended the value driver formula for continuing value. The idea is as follows: The company is almost in a steady state. However, the existing operations and the subsequent ones, referred to as growth projects, can be somewhat different. That is, the return on new invested capital (RONIC; refers to growth projects) can be lower than the return on invested capital (ROIC; refers to existing operations). Two weaknesses are associated with the McKinsey formula. Firstly, the only permissible case of RONIC < ROIC is where the working capital requirement is different between the growth projects and the existing operations. The usual Gordon formula then gives the same result, so the McKinsey formula is not necessary. Secondly, the implied split into existing operations and growth projects means that the former are valued under the unreasonable assumption of zero inflation. A more significant extended value driver formula is derived that rectifies these weaknesses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the possible errors of various present value approximations that center on the widely used end-of-period convention in cases of intraperiod cash flows. We suggest a new formula for adjusting the end-of-period present value based on the harmonic mean of the end-of-period and beginning-of-period present values. This approximation minimizes the maximum possible error in general. We give useful nomograms for several cash flow patterns to assess and correct for the errors of the different approximation methods. We find that the harmonic approximation has acceptable errors for most of these patterns. The findings are illustrated in a realistic example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the concept of an integration model of financial analysis methods of investment projects is presented. The described approach concerns the discounted cash flow methods and is focused on the future value growth of an investment. The defined relationships between these methods make it possible to illustrate the main perspectives of efficiency analysis. The aim of this article is to bring many methods of analysis together in a common framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article surveys contributions to the literature covering the field of probabilistic discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of individual capital investments from the earliest contributions of the 1960s to today. Such analysis includes the methods of present worth (net present value), annual worth, future worth, internal rate of return, payback period, and benefit:cost ratio. The history and development of the probabilistic case is traced, listing the main assumptions made and any restrictions to applications. The survey will be found useful by those engaged in risk management and decisions associated with investments and budgeting having uncertain outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we propose using a real options framework to model and financially value a cross-training policy. The cross-training policy involves a dynamic investment on workforce flexibility. We model it as an approximation of an American call option using binomial lattices. Value stems from the merit of dynamic cross-training compared with the deterministic case using traditional discounted cash flow techniques. This work is discussed in the context of a volatile production system characterized by product dynamics, labor dynamics, task heterogeneity and workforce heterogeneity. Results suggest that cross-training based on the real options approach is dependent on the production capability and the level of workforce heterogeneity. Thus, valuing workforce flexibility using real options has strategic utility beyond that of the net present value approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1993, Moon and Yun [8] developed a finite planning horizon economic order quantity (EOQ) model by using the Discounted Cash Flow approach. Chung and Lin [3] then improved Moon and Yun's solution by introducing a pair of closer lower and upper bounds and bisection algorithm. To avoid the unnecessary and time-consuming numerical computations, we propose a novel approach in this paper to calculate the optimal solution of the same problem by using an accurate and efficient approximation solution directly without any further iterative numerical computations such as the bisection algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the relevance of real options analysis to engineering economic decisions. Discussion of the common modelling approach; History of real options; Limitations of discounted cash flow-based techniques when applied in situations of uncertainty.

Focuses on the use of options approach in research and development project valuation which permits a flexible assessment of the growth opportunities in the entire process. Information on the application of the traditional discounted cash flow method; Appropriateness of the options approach in the world of uncertainty; Details on the development of a valuation model that incorporates the risk-free arbitrage features of a binomial pricing model into a decision free framework.

Considers two approaches in evaluating cash flows and finding an appropriate discount rate. Discussion on the capital asset pricing model and the risk-neutral pricing arguments from option theory; Derivation of an expression that illustrated the differences from standard form ignoring risk; Assumptions on discounted cash flow analysis.

Proposes the fuzzy discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques to cope with the problems encountered by evaluation of the investment alternatives. Details on DCF; Assessment of liquidity risk in capital budgeting; Fuzzy set theory; Analyses of fuzzy payback and duration; Examples; Conclusions.

Examines economic order quantity (EOQ) model with a random planning horizon and the adoption of the discounted cash flow (DCF) to fully recognize the time value of money in determining the optimal cycle length. Importance of the timing of cash flows of an investment proposals; Impact of inflation and the time value of money on the optimal policies of order level system and the economic lot size system.

Contests the addendum written by Roumi and Schnabel about an article by Kim, Philippatos, and Chung. Presentation of counter examples by authors to disprove claims by Roumi and Schnabel about systems using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach; Explanations; Justification of solutions derived from Kim, Philippatos, and Chung; Summmary.