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Abstract: The EU electricity market is changing. Electricity demand in Europe is on the rise, the power plant fleet is aging, and a large share of the capacity will need to be replaced in the coming decades. An ambitious target has been formulated for the share of renewable energy, and CO2 prices are anticipated to increase. On top of this, CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) has appeared as an important technology in the transition to a long term sustainable energy supply. This paper discusses the implications all of the above developments for the EU electricity market, with an emphasis on the market North Western Europe. On the whole electricity prices in North Western Europe until 2020 are anticipated to increase, but this may only partly be ascribed to the pending introduction of CCS. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates conditions for a rapid ramp-up of a large-scale CO2 transport and storage infrastructure within the power and heat sector in EU’s Member States (MS). First, each MS is investigated individually with respect to the relevance of CCS in the power and heat sector. Second, the potential cost of CO2 transport and storage is evaluated and categorised into three levels for each MS with particular emphasis being put on power plant clusters, ownership concentration, source-sink distance and onshore storage potential. The chosen cost category for each member state is then used as input in a techno-economic modelling to evaluate the future electricity supply system in Europe as described elsewhere (Odenberger et al., 2008a). Finally, based on the modelling results, the study develops a detailed CO2 transportation and storage infrastructure for Germany and UK and discusses issues related to the ramp-up of such infrastructure. The analysis shows that most MS have identified structures that may be suitable for subsurface storage of CO2. Fourteen MS have so far identified onshore reservoirs only. Several MS have clusters of large power plants along with considerable national or regional concentration of plant ownership, factors that may both facilitate the ramp-up of a bulk CCS infrastructure. Phasing in of CCS plants over time will obviously play a key role in building up large-scale transport infrastructure. CCS plants are likely to be located on existing sites and coal plants currently under construction may choose to retrofit the plant for CCS instead of building new plants. CO2 pipeline trajectories are likely to follow existing trajectories for natural gas pipelines, minimising interference with the surroundings and facilitate and speed up permitting processes. Timing, conflicts of interest and public acceptance, especially onshore, are other factors that may become an issue with regard to transport and storage of CO2. According to model results, some 5.2 Gt CO2 is transported and stored in Germany between 2020 and 2050 while the corresponding figure in the UK is 3.7 Gt. Based on assumed injectivity, total system costs up to 2050 range between €18 and €23 billion in Germany and between €20 and €30 billion in the UK while specific costs range between €3.4 and €4.4 per ton of CO2 in Germany and between €5.4 and €8.1 in the UK. Finally, the modelling results indicate a rapid switch from gas based to coal based power generation with CCS. It is, however, likely that the large fuel switch from gas to coal will be moderated considerably by market dynamics and issues related to the fuel supply chain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]