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Abstract: Distinguished from former literature which focuses on the static or balanced analysis, this paper established the timevarying parameters model based on state space model to find the dynamic relationship between China''s energy consumption and economic growth. After applying Chow test, unit root test and cointegration test, this paper estimated the parameters of state space model with Kalman Filter Algorithm, then found and analyzed their internal regularity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Electrification level is a significant topic in energy and electric power planning. The paper sets up a LEAP model and designs three scenarios of economic growth of China, and simulates China''s electrification level by 2030. The results show that China''s electrification level has a larger increase potential in the mid-long term and rapid change of economic development pattern can help to increase the electrification level. By 2015, energy used for power generation will account for 43.3% of total primary energy consumption, while the ratio of electricity consumption to total final energy consumption will be about 23.1%; by 2020, the ratio of energy used for power generation to total primary energy consumption will increase to 44.9%, and the ratio of electricity consumption to final energy consumption will be about 25.6%; by 2030, the ratio of energy used for power generation to total primary energy consumption will be up to 47.2%, and the ratio of electricity consumption to total final energy consumption will reach about 28.9%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In order to forecast energy demand in China in the next 20 years, this paper firstly analyzes the current situation of China''s energy consumption, and then apply LEAP model to simulate primary energy and final energy demand in 2020, 2030 under different scenario composition about economic development, energy efficiency and energy structure. The results show that: the total primary energy demand will reach 4840-5070 Mtce in 2020, 5580-5870 Mtce in 2030; the share of coal in primary energy will decrease, and that of oil, natural gas and non-fossil energy sources will increase. For all the three economic growth scenarios, 40-45% carbon emission intensity reduction target can be realized. If non-fossil energy can be further developed, carbon emission intensity can reduce more than 45% by 2020. The goal of the 15% share of non-fuel energy in primary energy is difficult to realize, unless the most development potentials of hydro power, nuclear power and wind power can be reached. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]