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This paper considers the effect of the publication of offer price information on unilateral market power in Alberta's electricity market. This market is an hourly auction characterized by repeated interaction among a small number of produc- ers, common knowledge of costs and production capabilities, and price inelastic demand. For the period July 13, 2000 to May 18, 2017, offer prices for each hour were published by the market operator, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), in the Historical Trading Report (HTR) after the end of the hour. Using counter- factual analysis from 2010 to 2015 (52,584 hours), the paper finds that the effect of offer price changes after the HTR publication was to raise the average hourly price for electricity in Alberta by $2.48/MWh or about 4.2%, which raised the cost of electricity for Alberta consumers during the six-year period by approximately $1.14 billion. Based on an earlier version of this paper, the AESO was instructed by Alberta's utilities regulator to cease publication of the HTR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the effect of the publication of offer price information on unilateral market power in Alberta's electricity market. This market is an hourly auction characterized by repeated interaction among a small number of producers, common knowledge of costs and production capabilities, and price inelastic demand. For the period July 13, 2000 to May 18, 2017, offer prices for each hour were published by the market operator, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), in the Historical Trading Report (HTR) after the end of the hour. Using counterfactual analysis from 2010 to 2015 (52,584 hours), the paper finds that the effect of offer price changes after the HTR publication was to raise the average hourly price for electricity in Alberta by $2.48/MWh or about 4.2%, which raised the cost of electricity for Alberta consumers during the six-year period by approximately $1.14 billion. Based on an earlier version of this paper, the AESO was instructed by Alberta's utilities regulator to cease publication of the HTR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the potential for vertically integrated firms that own assets in both the natural gas and electricity markets to manipulate natural gas and electricity prices through the withholding of natural gas pipeline capacity. An integrated firm theoretically could increase the price it receives in the electricity market by withholding pipeline capacity to the wholesale natural gas market, thereby reducing wholesale supply of natural gas and potentially increasing generation costs for electricity through higher natural gas prices. A key criteria in assessing whether an integrated firm's allocation of pipeline capacity between the wholesale and retail markets constitutes manipulation relates to whether the allocation is profit maximizing on a stand-alone basis, i.e., the allocation maximizes the firm's profits in the natural gas market without considering its profits in the electricity market. I develop a theoretical model that examines the incentives to allocate pipeline capacity to the wholesale natural gas market, which supplies the power generation sector, and the retail natural gas market. I find that an integrated firm may choose to allocate more pipeline capacity to the retail market than the wholesale market in order to reduce the probability of paying fines from failing to adequately meet retail demand, to increase its profits in the wholesale natural gas market, or to increase its profits in the electricity market. In order to prove a manipulation has occurred, it must be shown that the last case is true and the first two cases had little effect on the allocation decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies a tenant-side "split incentives" problem that exists when the largest commercial sector customers are on electricity-included property lease contracts, causing them to face a marginal electricity price of zero. We use exogenous variation in weather shocks to show that the largest firms on tenant-paid contracts use up to 14 percent less electricity in response to summer temperature fluctuations. The result is retrieved under weaker identifying assumptions than previous split incentives papers, and is robust when exposed to several opportunities to fail. The electricity reduction in response to temperature increases is likely to be a lower bound when generalized nationwide and suggests that policymakers should consider a sub-metering policy to expose the largest commercial tenants to the prevailing retail electricity price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does temperature affect household energy demand in low-income countries? This paper uses 132,375,282 hourly electricity consumption observations from 5,975 households in South Africa to estimate the causal effects of short-term temperature changes on household electricity consumption. The estimates flexibly identify a constant log-linear temperature response--for every 1°C increase in temperature, electricity consumption decreases by 4.1% among temperatures below the heating threshold but increases by 8.1% among temperatures above the cooling threshold. This relationship is driven more strongly by seasonal than hourly temperature changes. Holding all else constant, a 3.25°C increase in temperatures would reduce electricity consumption by 1,093.4 kWh (6.2%) per year per household. Widespread use of electric heating due to limited residential gas heating infrastructure likely drives this. These results point to important regional heterogeneity in how temperature increases may affect household energy demand in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to explain the relationship between high frequency electricity demand, intra-day temperature variation and time. Using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM) framework we link high frequency (5-minute) aggregate electricity demand in Australia to the time of the day, time of the year and intra-day temperature. We document a strong relationship between high frequency electricity demand and intra-day temperature. We show a superior model fit when using Daylight Saving Time (DST), or clock time, instead of the standard (solar) time. We introduce the time weighted temperature model that captures instantaneous electricity demand sensitivity to temperature as a function of the human daily activity cycle, by assigning different temperature signal weighting based on the DST time. The results on DST and time weighted temperature modelling are novel in the literature and are important innovations in high frequency electricity demand forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the forward premium as a liquidity premium in electricity futures markets as determined by producers and retailers' demand for immediacy. Demand for immediacy by a buyer (seller) means the willingness to buy (sell) at the current market price rather than wait until a better price appears. An imbalance between the supply and demand of futures contracts creates a demand for immediacy. Market makers satisfy this demand by offsetting the imbalance at the current market price and require a liquidity premium until the imbalance disappears. The liquidity premium is negative (positive) when market makers sell (buy) futures contracts. The empirical application to the French, German, Spanish, and Nordic futures electricity markets in 2008-2017, finds several periods with a negative liquidity premium in the first three markets, suggesting that retailers wanted to offload a higher amount of price risk than the producers. The premium decreases when the number of market makers increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the effect of recognizing co-firing coal with biomass as renewable electricity. We provide simulations for the French and German electricity mix. Results indicate that, if co-firing is recognized as a renewable, coal may crowd-out traditional renewables with increased generation and additional investments. Regarding CO2 emissions, we find surges when co-firing is recognized as a renewable. The rise is more significant in Germany due to greater coal capacity. In France, the magnitude depends on the share of nuclear with a lower increase when old nuclear plants are prolonged. Finally, we find that recognizing co-firing as a renewable reduces the overall costs for electricity. We balance the cost saving with the increased social cost from higher CO2 emissions. Results show that the cost saving is lower than the increased carbon cost for society with carbon valuation around 100 Euros/tCO2, except in France when old nuclear plants are not decommissioned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies wholesale electricity markets where an exogenous price cap is enforced, compromising both short- and long-term incentives. To guarantee capacity adequacy, policy-makers may provide support for generation through a capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM) and/or encourage demand response (DR). Such mechanisms are formalised within a common simple analytical framework, clarifying how these mechanisms relate to each other. We then divide them into two categories, depending on whether their implementation requires transactions to be made based explicitly on spot prices higher than the price cap. While mechanisms that keep implicit these high marginal costs are likely to be preferred from a political perspective, they also appear to be less efficient. If they are to be implemented nonetheless, we suggest that the price cap should be set higher than the marginal cost of the most expensive plant, and highlight that challenges for demand-response integration in CRMs remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is one of the limited studies to investigate rebound effects in sectoral electricity consumption and the specific case of New Zealand. New Zealand, like other OECD economies, has aimed for energy efficiency improvements and reduced electricity consumption from 9.2 MWh per capita in 2010 to 8.6 MWh per capita in 2015. However, following a significant decline since 2010, electricity consumption in the main New Zealand sectors is increasing. Energy conservation could play an important role in meeting the growing demand for electricity but rebound effects can affect the effectiveness of conservation policies. We decompose the sectoral electricity prices to capture the asymmetric demand response to electricity price changes and estimate electricity demand elasticity during 1980 and 2015 to estimate the sectoral rebound effects. We find partial rebound effects of 54% and 23% in the industrial and commercial sectors respectively while we find no rebound effect at the aggregate level. The rebound effect is insignificant in the residential sector. These findings lead to policy recommendations for sector specific energy conservation measures and policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most existing renewables support schemes distort location and dispatch decisions. Many impose unnecessary risk on developers, increasing support costs. Efficient policy sets the right carbon price, supports capacity not output, ensures efficient dispatch and location. The EU bans priority dispatch and requires market-based bidding, but does not address the underlying problem that payment is conditional on generation, amplifying incentives to locate in windy/sunny sites. This article identifies the various distortions and proposes an auctioned contract to address location and dispatch distortions: a financial Contract for Difference (CfD) with hourly contracted volume proportional to local renewable output/MW, with a life specified in MWh/MW, with long-term transmission contracts based on predicted output-weighted actual or simulated nodal prices. This yardstick CfD delivers efficient dispatch. It assures but limits the total subsidy. It does not over-pay for windy/sunny sites. The revenue assurance allows high debt:equity, dramatically lowering the subsidy cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than half of the countries in the world have introduced a reform process in their power sectors since 1980s. Adapting a political economy perspective, this paper attempts to discover the impact of political economic variables on the liberalization process in electricity markets. Empirical models are developed using panel data from 55 developed and developing countries covering the period 1975-2010. The research findings clearly show that political variables have a significant impact on the reform progress. Consistent with public choice theory and economic theory of regulation, our results suggest that a portion of the differences in the reform experiences of reforming countries in the past three decades can be explained by differences in the relative strength of interest groups. We find that industry sector has a significant impact on the pace of power market liberalization process; and as its size gets larger, so does its influence. Our results also imply that countries receiving foreign financial support are more likely to liberalize their electricity markets, which underlines the point that reforms may not be always voluntary. In addition, our findings suggest that government ideology is one of the determinants of the progress in electricity market reform process. Finally, the paper also questions whether politicians' education and profession matter for the electricity market reforms. Overall, the results show they do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smart meters, in conjunction with time-of-use (TOU) pricing, can facilitate an improvement in energy efficiency by providing consumers with enhanced infor-mation about electricity consumption and costs, and thereby encourage a shift away from consumption during peak hours. In 2009-10, the Irish Commission for Energy Regulation co-ordinated a randomised controlled trial in the Irish residential electricity market. Smart meters were introduced in approximately 5,000 households, divided into control and treatment groups, with treatment groups exposed to a variety of TOU tariffs and information stimuli. This paper analyses the response of Irish households at different times of the day to the introduction of TOU tariffs and information stimuli. We find that these measures have a significant effect in reducing electricity consumption in Ireland, particu-larly during peak hours. However, while households reduce peak demand signifi-cantly after the introduction of TOU tariffs and associated information, there is little incremental response to increasing differentials between peak and off-peak prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides the first EU wide analysis of the variation in Capacity Remuneration Requirements throughout Europe which aim to resolve the "missing money" problems in various member states. The findings of this analysis point to an asymmetric investment case for gas-fired peaking power plants throughout the EU. Under the assumptions of the European Commission Reference Scenario, pan-European power optimisation and investment models are specified for 2030. The results show that future investment in gas generators will depend on the availability of capacity payments. Capacity remuneration mechanisms can provide this "missing money," but we show that capacity remuneration requirements vary considerably across countries. We consider and model the impacts of country specific climate policy targets, sovereign risk, capital allowances, corporate taxes and future gas network tariffs on investor returns and therefore remuneration requirements. In the context of harmonised energy trading, this raises questions of how generation adequacy should be achieved, particularly in the context of higher penetrations of renewables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate lost consumer values due to various restrictions on household electricity use involving behavior adaptation. To do this, we conduct a choice experiment where households choose between hypothetical electricity contracts including various restrictions on the use of high-power household appliances. In addition, we use a contingent valuation question related to complete blackouts to study a restriction on other types of electricity usage (heating, lighting, TV, etc.). The results indicate a significant difference between the value lost due to the soft control, and the blackouts. Furthermore, policies aiming at stimulating behavioral changes are costly and it is far from obvious that demand response requiring behavioral adaptation is more cost effective than supply response (i.e., increased production of electricity). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity markets are increasingly influenced by variable renewable energy such as wind and solar power, characterized by a pronounced weather-induced variability and imperfect predictability. As a result, the evaluation of the capacity value of variable renewable energy, i.e., its contribution to security of supply, gains importance. This paper develops a new methodology to endogenously determine the capacity value in large-scale investment and dispatch models for electricity markets. The framework allows balancing effects to be accounted for that arise due to the spatial distribution of generation capacities and interconnectors. The practical applicability of the methodology is shown with an application for wind power in Europe. We find that wind power can substantially contribute to security of supply in a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050, with regional capacity values ranging from 1-40%. Analyses that do not account for the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the contribution of wind power to security of supply therefore lead to inefficient levels of dispatchable back-up capacity. Applying a wind power capacity value of 5% results in an overestimation of firm capacity requirements in Europe by 66 GW in 2050. This translates to additional firm capacity provision costs of 3.8 bn EUR per year in 2050, which represents an increase of 7%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an econometric analysis of curtailment costs of renewable energy sources (RES) in Germany. The study aims at explaining and quantifying the regional variability of RES curtailment, which is a measure to relieve grid overstress by temporarily disconnecting RES from the electricity grid. We apply a Heckit sample selection model, which corrects bias from non-randomly selected samples. The selection equation estimates the probability of occurrence of RES curtailment in a region. The outcome equation corrects for cross-sectional dependence and quantifies the effect of RES on curtailment costs. The results show that wind energy systems connected to the distribution grid increase RES curtailment costs by 0.7% per MW (or 0.2% per GWh) in subregions that have experienced RES curtailment over the period 2015-2017. The implication of this finding is that policymakers should set price signals for renewables that consider the regional grid overstress, in order to mitigate the cost burden on consumers due to excess generation from RES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change from a subsidized zonal pricing system to a full nodal pricing regime in the new Mexican electricity market could improve the efficiency of electricity system operation. However, resulting price modifications might also swing surplus across producers and consumers. In this paper, we calculate nodal prices for the Mexican power system and further analyze how allocations of financial transmission rights (FTRs) can be used to mitigate resulting distributional effects. The share of FTRs to be allocated to different generation plants and loads is studied as a second step of an electricity tariff subsidy reform agenda that includes, as a first step, the change to nodal pricing and, as a third step, the reformulation of actual regressive subsidies in a progressive way. We test our model in a realistic nodal price setting, based on an hourly modeling of the Mexican power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than two decades have passed since the start of the worldwide market-oriented electricity sector reforms. The reforms have varied in terms of structure, market mechanisms, and regulation. However, the passage of time calls for taking stock of the performance of the reforms in developing countries. This paper surveys the empirical literature on electricity sector reforms and draws some conclusions with a view to the future. Overall, the reforms have tended to improve the technical efficiency of the sector. The macroeconomic benefits of reforms are less clear and remain difficult to identify. Also, the gains from the reforms have often not trickled down to consumers because of institutional and regulatory weaknesses. In order to achieve lasting benefits, reforms need to adopt measures that align their pursuit of economic efficiency with those of equity and provision of access. Reforms can deliver more economic benefits and alleviate poverty when the poor have access to electricity. New technologies and institutional capacity building can help improve the performance of reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While several studies have examined the effect of renewable portfolio standard laws on renewable generation in states, previous literature has not assessed the potential for spatial dependence in these policies. Using recent spatial panel methods, this paper estimates a number of econometric models to examine the impact of RPS policies when spatial autocorrelation is taken into account. Consistent with previous literature, we find that RPS laws do not have a significant impact on renewable generation within a state. However, we find evidence that state RPS laws have a significant positive impact on the share of renewable generation in the NERC region as a whole. These findings provide evidence that electricity markets are efficiently finding the lowest-cost locations to serve renewable load in states with more stringent RPS laws. In addition, our results suggest that RPS laws may be more effective tools for environmental policy than for economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a panel threshold model to empirically estimate the main drivers of electricity performance. The empirical analysis is based on a panel data set including 30 OECD countries over the period 1975-2013. We argue that effective regulatory reforms have positive interaction with the electricity generated leading to a higher capacity utilization and an increase in the level of labor productivity of the sector. The threshold analysis suggests that for already economically liberalised countries the level of economic freedom does not affect electricity generation and subsequently the level of electricity performance. Finally, the results do not drastically change when the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-border trade remains a contentious issue in the restructuring of the European electricity market. This paper analyzes the cross-border trade problem through a set of models that represent different degrees of coordination both between the energy and the transmission markets and among national Transmission System Operators (TSOs). We first present a nodal price-like organization of the system, where Power Exchanges (PXs) and Transmission System Operators are integrated to operate the energy and transmission markets. This system is not implemented in Europe but its success elsewhere makes it the natural reference for the study. We then move to a more realistic representation of the European electricity market based on the so-called market coupling design where energy and transmission are operated separately by PXs and TSOs. We consider different degrees of coordination of the national TSOs' activities to assess the range of inefficiencies that the lack of integration can lead to. The paper supposes price taking agents and hence leaves aside the incentive to game the system induced by zonal systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tradable permits and carbon taxes are two market-based instruments commonly considered by policymakers to regulate pollutions. While a tax is fixed, predetermined by authorities, the uncertain permits price is driven by market dynamics, fluctuating with the prices of natural gas and electricity. Both instruments offer firms different incentives for adopting clean technologies. This paper explores the optimal investment timing when a coal-fired plant owner considers introducing clean technologies in face of these two policies using a real options approach. We find that tradable permits could effectively trigger adopting clean technologies at a considerably lower level of carbon price relative to a tax policy. Higher levels of volatility in permit prices are likely to induce suppliers to take early actions to hedge against carbon risks. Thus, offset and other price control mechanisms, which are designed to reduce permit prices or to suppress prices volatility, are likely to delay clean technology investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses a wholesale electricity market with supply function competition. Trade in the forward and spot markets is represented by a two-stage game, and its subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) is characterized. It is verified that increased forward sales of a producer constitute a credible commitment to aggressive spot market bidding. The paper identifies market situations when this pro-competitive commitment is unilaterally profitable for the producer It is also proven that a producer has incentives to sell in the forward market in order to reduce competitors 'forward sales, which softens their spot market offers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to reliably depict the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on Spain under different assumptions about the industries involved. Prior analyses, based either on highly aggregated macroeconomic or specific electricity industry models, have been limited in degree of detail or scope. Two types of modeling were combined in the present study: general equilibrium was used to assess the impact on different industries and to explain cross-industry changes, and partial equilibrium to suitably model the complex and crucial electricity system. Combining and interrelating these two models yields the effects on price, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and distributional patterns in Spain of both the current policy and of an alternative in which all industries take part in the EU ETS. Since Spain is a key participant in this scheme, the conclusions and policy implications stemming from this paper are relevant to and useful for post-Kyoto arrangements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. This paper treats these abnormal episodes or price spikes as count events and attempts to build a model of the spiking process. By contrast to the existing literature, which either ignores temporal dependence in the spiking process or attempts to model the dependence solely in terms of deterministic variables (like seasonal and day of the week effects), this paper argues that persistence in the spiking process is an important factor in building an effective model. A Poisson autoregressive framework is proposed in which price spikes occur as a result of the latent arrival and survival of system stresses. This formulation captures the salient features of the process adequately, and yields forecasts of price spikes that are superior to those obtained from naiïe models that do not account for persistence in the spiking process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the development of the European electricity transmission network for different policy scenarios at the horizon 2050. We apply a bottomup techno-economic electricity sector model to determine transformation scenarios of the European electricity sector. It has a very detailed spatial disaggregation that allows for a fine representation of domestic and international electricity flows and transmission expansion. The cost-minimizing mixed-integer model calculates investments for time steps of ten years. The model results indicate that network requirements are lower than generally assumed. The largest share are domestic upgrades, rather than country interconnectors. Most investments (20bn EUR) occur in the near future, by 2030 the latest. Only the high-mitigation scenarios require large additional network investments. The timing and location of investments differ, depending on generation scenarios and cost assumptions for interconnectors. The results indicate that carbon emission reduction targets alone provide insufficient information for long-term network planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity is a paradoxical economic good: it is highly homogeneous and heterogeneous at the same time. Electricity prices vary dramatically between moments in time, between location, and according to lead-time between contract and delivery. This three-dimensional heterogeneity has implication for the economic assessment of power generation technologies: different technologies, such as coalfired plants and wind turbines, produce electricity that has, on average, a different economic value. Several tools that are used to evaluate generators in practice ignore these value differences, including "levelized electricity costs", "grid parity", and simple macroeconomic models. This paper provides a rigorous and general discussion of heterogeneity and its implications for the economic assessment of electricity generating technologies. It shows that these tools are biased, specifically, they tend to favor wind and solar power over dispatchable generators where these renewable generators have a high market share. A literature review shows that, at a wind market share of 30-40%, the value of a megawatt-hour of electricity from a wind turbine can be 20-50% lower than the value of one megawatt- hour as demanded by consumers. We introduce "System LCOE" as one way of comparing generation technologies economically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze the operational efficiency of Chinese power sector at the provincial level, this paper studies the convergence of technical efficiency and productivity growth of electricity across 29 Chinese provinces during the period 1996-2008 using several convergence models. Depending on the model being employed, we find evidence of convergence of operational efficiency towards either a national steady state or towards their own steady states, with the latter process occurring more rapidly. In essence, our study provides evidence of negative effects of government intervention. Additionally, we use the nonparametric distribution dynamics approach to analyze intra-distributional dynamics of technical efficiency and productivity. We find some support for productivity convergence while technical efficiency does not converge for provinces with relatively low levels. We discuss policy implementations based on our model results and highlight several aspects for policy making in the power sector reforms currently being undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the discussion on estimating the value of lost residential electricity service in Nepal. Topics include high technical and commercial losses, insufficient revenues to finance investment in infrastructure, and many others; and improving electricity dispatch, increasing electricity production, and imports from India though households still experiencing unscheduled outages.

Restructuring and liberalisation of the electricity industry creates opportunities for investment in energy storage, which could be undertaken by a profit-maximising merchant storage operator. Because such a firm is concerned solely with maximising its own profit, the resulting storage-investment decision may be socially suboptimal (or detrimental). This paper develops a bi-level model of an imperfectly competitive electricity market. The modelling framework assumes electricity-generation and storage-operations decisions at the lower level and storage investment at the upper level. Our analytical results demonstrate that a relatively high (low) amount of market power in the generation sector leads to low (high) storage-capacity investment by the profit-maximising storage operator relative to a welfare maximiser. This can result in net social welfare losses with a profit-maximising storage operator compared to a no-storage case. Moreover, there are guaranteed to be net social welfare losses with a profit-maximising storage operator if the generation sector is sufficiently competitive. Using a charge on generation ramping between off- and on-peak periods, we induce the profit-maximising storage operator to invest in the same level of storage capacity as the welfare-maximising firm. Such a ramping charge can increase social welfare above the levels that are attained with a welfare-maximising storage operator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates consumer savings, CO2 emissions reductions, and price effects from increasing demand response (DR) dispatch in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) electricity market. To quantify market effects, we develop a dynamic supply and demand model to explore a range of DR deployment scenarios. The study is motivated by the existence of regulatory and market rule barriers to market-based deployment of DR resources in the MISO region. We show annual consumer savings from increased market-based DR can vary from $1.3 million to $17.6 million under typical peak operating conditions, depending on the amount of DR resources available for market dispatch and the frequency of deployment. Consumer savings and other market effects increase exponentially during atypical periods with tight supply and high prices. Additionally, we find that DR deployment often reduces CO2 emissions, but the magnitude of emissions reductions varies depending on the emissions content of marginal generation at the time and location of deployment. The results of this study suggest regulators and other stakeholders should focus policy efforts to reducing regulatory barriers to DR deployment in wholesale markets, particularly in locations that experience high price spikes, to improve market efficiency and achieve cost savings for consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the liberalization of markets, the change in the energy mix and the surrounding energy laws, electricity research is a dynamically altering field with steadily changing challenges. One challenge especially for investment decisions is to provide reliable short to mid-term forecasts despite high variation in the time series of electricity prices. This paper tackles this issue in a promising and novel approach. By combining the precision of econometric autoregressive models in the short-run with the expectations of market participants reflected in future prices for the short- and mid-run we show that the forecasting performance can be vastly increased while maintaining hourly precision. We investigate the day-ahead electricity price of the EPEX Spot for Germany and Austria and setup a model which incorporates the Phelix future of the EEX for Germany and Austria. The model can be considered as an AR24-X model with one distinct model for each hour of the day. We are able to show that future data contains relevant price information for future time periods of the day-ahead electricity price. We show that relying only on deterministic external regressors can provide stability for forecast horizons of multiple weeks. By implementing a fast and efficient lasso estimation approach we demonstrate that our model can outperform several other models in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU carbon price lies well below estimates of the social cost of carbon and "target-consistent" carbon prices needed to deliver ambitious targets such as the 40% reduction target for 2030. In light of this, the UK introduced a carbon price floor (CPF) for its electricity sector in 2013 and the new Dutch Government has recently made a similar commitment, while successive French Governments have called for an EU-wide CPF. This paper analyzes the impacts and design of a power- sector CPF, both at the EU and national level, using a political-economy approach. We find a good case for introducing such a price-based instrument into the EU ETS. We suggest that a CPF should be designed to "top up" the EUA price to €25-30/tCO2, rising annually at 3-5% above inflation, at least until 2030. We argue that the new EU Market Stability Reserve enhances the value of a CPF in terms of delivering climate benefits, and discuss the potential for a regional CPF in North-West Europe. We also review international policy experience with price floors (and ceilings). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the welfare-optimal market share of wind and solar power, explicitly taking into account their output variability. We present a theoretical valuation framework that consistently accounts for the impact of fluctuations over time, forecast errors, and the location of generators in the power grid on the marginal value of electricity from renewables. Then the optimal share of wind and solar power in Northwestern Europe's generation mix is estimated from a calibrated numerical model. We find the optimal long-term wind share to be 20%, three times more than today; however, we also find significant parameter uncertainty. Variability significantly impacts results: if winds were constant, the optimal share would be 60%. In addition, the effect of technological change, price shocks, and policies on the optimal share is assessed. We present and explain several surprising findings, including a negative impact of CO2 prices on optimal wind deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) merchant transmission lines allow trade across separate power markets and often in different countries. Flows on existing cross-border lines are often assessed as suboptimal, which may be due to the light regulation that often prevails in these cases. This paper studies the impact of market power on HVDC interconnections as a determinant of imperfect arbitrage. We assess the impact of Physical Transmission Rights (PTRs) allocation on the management of an HVDC interconnection between a thermal and a hydroelectricity market, assuming dynamic water management. We use a two-stage game formulated as an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC) to model the strategic trade between the New York (US) and Quebec (Canada) systems. The numerical model is calibrated with public data. We find that although the interconnection can create wealth, a high concentration of PTRs can destroy value because of dumping strategies. The impact of trade on local price levels may be of concern and calls for the functional unbundling of traders and generators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies an econometric analysis to estimate the average and distribu-tion benefits of rural electrification using rich household survey data from India. The results support that rural electrification helps reduce time allocated to fuel wood collection by household members and increases time allocated to studying by boys and girls. Rural electrification also increases labor supply of men and women, schooling of boys and girls, household per capita income and expendi-ture. Electrification also helps reduce poverty. But the larger share of benefits accrues to wealthier rural households, with poorer ones having a more limited use of electricity. The analysis also shows that restricted supply of electricity, due to frequent power outages, negatively affects both household electricity connec-tion and its consumption, thereby reducing the expected benefits of rural electri-fication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The German reserve power market has been subject to important regulatory changes in recent years. A new market design has been introduced by synchro-nizing and interconnecting the four regional German control areas. We analyze whether the reforms have led to lower prices for minute reserve power (MRP). In contrast to existing papers, we use a unique panel dataset to account for un-observed heterogeneity between the four German regional markets. Moreover, we control for endogeneity by using weather data as instruments for electricity spot market prices. We find that the reforms were jointly successful in decreasing MRP prices leading to substantial cost savings for the transmission system operators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the current state of market integration among European electricity day-ahead spot prices. In our empirical analysis we utilize a large sample of hourly spot prices of 25 European markets for the period 2010Jan01/01h- 2015Jun30/24h and combine it with other relevant data such as hourly interconnector capacities and the existence of market coupling. Firstly, empirical results from cointegration analysis indicate that market integration increased from 2010 to 2012 but then declined until 2015, despite the introduction of market coupling in many markets. Secondly, we empirically assess error correction after price shocks and reach the conclusion that markets' strength of the error correction mechanism is rather modest. In general, our findings suggest that the integration among European electricity markets has a large potential for improvements from additional capacity investments and further promotion of market coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses a Bayesian approach to analyzing cost efficiency of Distribution System Operators when model specification and variable selection are difficult to determine. Bayesian model selection and inference pooling techniques are adopted in a stochastic frontier analysis to mitigate the problem of model uncertainty. Adequacy of a given specification is judged by its posterior probability, which makes the benchmarking process not only more transparent but also much more objective. The proposed methodology is applied to one of Polish Distribution System Operators. We find that variable selection plays an important role and models, which are the best at describing the data, are rather parsimonious. They rely on just a few variables determining the observed cost. However, these models also show relatively high average efficiency scores among analyzed objects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines two aggregate production function models--one with urbanization as a shift factor and one that includes energy/electricity consumption and physical capital--to estimate the macro-level relationship among urbanization, energy/electricity consumption, and economic growth using a panel method that is robust to both cointegration and cross-sectional dependence. For four panels (comprising in turn high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income countries) GDP per capita, total final energy and electricity consumption per capita, gross fixed capital formation per capita, and urbanization were found to be I(1), cross-sectionally dependent, and cointegrated. The long-run elasticity estimates suggest (i) that urbanization is important to and associated with economic growth, (ii) that urbanization's impact on economic growth ranges from substantially negative to nearly neutral to positive as countries develop--an "urbanization ladder" effect, and (iii) that less developed countries are over-urbanized (their elasticities being negative). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence on the relevance of modeling adequately the seasonal character of coal and electricity production across Chinese regions. Unlike other work, this paper relaxes the assumption of deterministic seasonality, allowing for time and regional variation in this economy. More specifically, we analyze and distinguish the type of seasonality around the year that prevails in the case of coal and electricity production of each individual Chinese province. Our results indicate that for the majority of the provinces seasonality is stochastic in both types of energy considered. Our findings provide new evidence of a Lunar New-Year effect in February and Summer as well as Winter effects in coal and electricity production. However, in terms of seasonal patterns and their evolution over time, there are significant differences between the Northern Southern regions. Besides for each type of energy, regional clusters matter for the appropriate design of energy-development policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments implemented a pollution permit system for sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions that departs from state command-and- control regulations that were in place prior to and during its implementation. This paper develops a technology diffusion model relying on rank effects or firm heterogeneity, to explain the adoption of scrubbers, a SO2 abatement technology. Using survival analysis, empirical results show that generating units regulated under Phase I of Title IV, units facing more stringent state regulations, and units with low expected installation costs are much more likely to install a scrubber. In addition, there is evidence of positive scale effects of adoption, meaning larger units are more likely to adopt because expected installation costs are lower Tradable permit systems should give firms more flexibility in choosing abatement technologies, but results show that when command-and-control regulations overlap with a market-based system, the technology choice is restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of market restructuring initiatives that introduced competition into the United States electricity industry on the thermal efficiency of electricity generation. An empirical model is estimated on annual data for over 950 plants from 1996 to 2006. Model estimates show that access to wholesale electricity markets and retail choice together increased the efficiency of investor-owned plants by about nine percent and that these gains stem from organizational and technological changes within the plant. Although not directly targeted by restructuring initiatives, similar efficiency gains are also found for municipality-owned plants. This result suggests that the potential benefits from competition have spilled over to public electricity generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tradable allowances have received considerable attention in recent years. One emerging issue is their interaction with electricity markets. This paper extends the model of Allaz and Vila (1993) by incorporating emissions trading with forward and spot markets for electricity. We focus on the effects of strategic forward position and initial allowances allocation on the equilibrium outcomes. We find that firms with a dirty portfolio would have stronger incentives to take a long position in the forward market to raise the electricity price. Increasing the amount of allowances assigned to clean firms leads to a reduction in electricity and allowance prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lack of access to electricity has been considered a major impediment to the growth and development of rural economies. Thus, the provision of electricity and other forms of modern energy has been a priority for many development organizations, including the World Bank. However, few impact studies of electrification have taken the endogeneity of the grid connection into account. Using a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2005 of 20,900 rural households in Bangladesh, this paper examines the welfare impacts of household access to grid electricity after controlling for endogeneity bias. The econometric analysis shows that grid electrification has significant positive impacts on household income, expenditure, and education. The household gain in total income due to electrification is as high as 21 percent, with a 1.5 percentage point reduction in poverty per year. The results also suggest that the income and expenditure effects of electricity connection are higher for better-off households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings are the dominant driver of daily and seasonal electric load cycles, and account for 40 percent of U.S. final energy use. They account for roughly 10 percent of direct U.S. CO2 emissions and roughly 40 percent once indirect emissions from electricity generation are included. This paper explores possible evolution of this sector over the coming century, its potential role climate action and response to climate policies, and the potential benefits advances in building technologies for addressing climate change. The paper presents a set of scenarios based on a detailed, service-based model of the buildings sector that is embedded within a long-term, global, integrated assessment model, MiniCAM. Eight scenarios are created in total, combining sets of assumptions regarding U.S. building service demand growth, two assumptions regarding the improvements in building energy technologies, two assumptions regarding long-term U.S. climate action --- a no-climate-action assumption and an assumption of market-based policies to reduce U.S. emissions consistent with a 450 ppmv global target. Through these eight scenarios, the paper comments on the implications of continued growth in building service demands, the ability of efficiency measures to reduce emissions, the strong link between decarbonization of electricity generation and building sector emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the R&D behavior of regulated firms when they transition to a competitive environment. Using data from the US electricity market from 1990-2000, we analyze how competition, institutional changes, and political constraints have contributed to the precipitous decline in R&D expenditure by regulated utilities. We find that firms reduce their R&D significantly at the very early stages of restructuring or even when they expect restructuring to occur. Once the emerging institutional structure becomes clear, R&D spending recovers but is later offset by another decline when restructuring legislation is enacted. In addition, greater competition and the nearing of such competition adversely affects research spending. In aggregate, R&D declines by 78.6 percent after electricity markets are restructured. Firm and state characteristics matter, and a majority of the research is conducted by large generation companies located in pro-research states, especially if they are part of a larger holding company. Such characteristics have a different impact on research spending in the pre- and post-restructured periods. "Research and development is our nation's investment in its own future. America's science and technology base may well stand us our most important renewable resource. The overarching public goal of US R&D policy, of which energy R&D is a major component, must be to assure for future generations that our Nation's capacity to shape the future through scientific research and technological innovation is continually being renewed" (US Department of Energy Report). "In a nutshell, the government that had created this regulated industry was saying, 'We don't want to regulate you anymore. Here's your business. Good luck.' However, the restructuring process initially generated more questions than answers, as the various players in the market tried to understand how the configuration of this industry might need to change." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the "Renewable Sources" EU Directive 2001/77/CE, the Italian Government goal is to attain the share of 22% in RES electricity production in 2010. In such context it becomes crucial to explore the existence of consumer's Willingness to Pay (WTP) in order to use renewable energy in the electricity production. This study, is based on a national survey with 1601 interviews made, in Italy, in November 2006. My aim is twofold. Firstly, I wish to assess the consumer's WTP which is the basis for market sustainability of such energy policy goal and, secondly, I evaluate the share of the necessary public support to RES policy which is covered by the aggregate WTP of Italians. This is an implicit assessment of the plausibility/acceptance of the announced target policy. In my survey framework I obtain the consumer's WTP with two different approaches and to this end the sample has been divided in two parts. In the first sub-sample I propose the full price vector with a downward elicitation format while in the second sub-sample I use the same price vector with an upward elicitation format. In this paper I focus on the different uncertainty degree that affects respondent's choices. I take care econometrically of this issue using an individual stochastic valuation approach and a referendum approach. I obtain for most of the estimated models that estimates of WTP are in agreement with other international results. The aggregate WTP for RES in Italy, however, is (still) not enough to attain the Italian Government goal in 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkish electricity reform is entering a new phase through the Turkish Government's proposal to create 21 new distribution companies, 18 of them by merger. Two aspects of merger analysis are the operational cost savings and the potential production efficiency gains. This paper concentrates on the second aspect and uses a recently developed methodology to assess the potential effect of these mergers and whether these mergers are efficiency enhancing. This is performed by comparing the actual efficiency levels of observed distribution companies with the merger of proposed aggregated companies. The model is calibrated on panel data from 1999 to 2003 which include measures of physical capital and labor inputs, as well as customer and energy related outputs. The results indicate potential for considerable efficiency gains from the proposed mergers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]